Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Zaune »

There is that. Although our current government's relationship with the world as it is as opposed to how they think it ought to be can be rather tenuous, so at this point who knows?
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

Zaune wrote: 2022-05-11 05:38pm
Coop D'etat wrote: 2022-05-11 03:52pmAlso that guarentee of Poland is what committed the UK to an all out war that lead to total German defeat, so I'm not sure the analogy works.
It works if you look at it from Poland's point of view: Britain promised to declare war on Nazi Germany if they invaded Poland, and they kept that promise, but by the time they'd sent in the paperwork the Polish government had already been forced to capitulate.

And I can absolutely picture Johnson contriving something like that scenario on purpose, reasoning that he can get all the political benefits of being seen to Take A Firm Line on Russia but never have to back it up with a commitment of UK forces if he can just stall until the occupation is a fait accompli.
Yeah that's my PoV here, as a Finn it doesn't really matter what UK does after Russians have taken over my country, as the chances are if I wasn't killed in the conflict or escaped I'm heading towards the executioner for the crime of not having been born a Russian.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

Lord Revan wrote: 2022-05-12 04:47pm
Zaune wrote: 2022-05-11 05:38pm
Coop D'etat wrote: 2022-05-11 03:52pmAlso that guarentee of Poland is what committed the UK to an all out war that lead to total German defeat, so I'm not sure the analogy works.
It works if you look at it from Poland's point of view: Britain promised to declare war on Nazi Germany if they invaded Poland, and they kept that promise, but by the time they'd sent in the paperwork the Polish government had already been forced to capitulate.

And I can absolutely picture Johnson contriving something like that scenario on purpose, reasoning that he can get all the political benefits of being seen to Take A Firm Line on Russia but never have to back it up with a commitment of UK forces if he can just stall until the occupation is a fait accompli.
Yeah that's my PoV here, as a Finn it doesn't really matter what UK does after Russians have taken over my country, as the chances are if I wasn't killed in the conflict or escaped I'm heading towards the executioner for the crime of not having been born a Russian.
If Finland has any more soldiers like Simo Häyhä I doubt Russia could defeat Finland, especially in light of their poor performance in Ukraine.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Tiriol »

Well, Russia managed to get Finnish President and Prime Minister both come out and officially state that they support speedy application for Nato membership.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Batman »

Maybe giving them an excellent reason TO join NATO is not the ideal approach to keeping nations OUT of NATO.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Darth Nostril »

Zaune wrote: 2022-05-11 05:38pm And I can absolutely picture Johnson contriving something like that scenario on purpose, reasoning that he can get all the political benefits of being seen to Take A Firm Line on Russia but never have to back it up with a commitment of UK forces if he can just stall until the occupation is a fait accompli.
He'd never be able to pull it off, Clownshoes Chamberlain is not as clever as he likes to think he is
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by ray245 »

Batman wrote: 2022-05-13 05:38pm Maybe giving them an excellent reason TO join NATO is not the ideal approach to keeping nations OUT of NATO.
What a colossal strategic mistake.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2022-05-13 02:14pm
Lord Revan wrote: 2022-05-12 04:47pm
Zaune wrote: 2022-05-11 05:38pm
It works if you look at it from Poland's point of view: Britain promised to declare war on Nazi Germany if they invaded Poland, and they kept that promise, but by the time they'd sent in the paperwork the Polish government had already been forced to capitulate.

And I can absolutely picture Johnson contriving something like that scenario on purpose, reasoning that he can get all the political benefits of being seen to Take A Firm Line on Russia but never have to back it up with a commitment of UK forces if he can just stall until the occupation is a fait accompli.
Yeah that's my PoV here, as a Finn it doesn't really matter what UK does after Russians have taken over my country, as the chances are if I wasn't killed in the conflict or escaped I'm heading towards the executioner for the crime of not having been born a Russian.
If Finland has any more soldiers like Simo Häyhä I doubt Russia could defeat Finland, especially in light of their poor performance in Ukraine.
Well one can't rely on the Russian performance staying as bad as it is currently, to do so would be at best unwise.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Tribble »

Lord Revan wrote: 2022-05-14 10:45am
EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2022-05-13 02:14pm
Lord Revan wrote: 2022-05-12 04:47pm

Yeah that's my PoV here, as a Finn it doesn't really matter what UK does after Russians have taken over my country, as the chances are if I wasn't killed in the conflict or escaped I'm heading towards the executioner for the crime of not having been born a Russian.
If Finland has any more soldiers like Simo Häyhä I doubt Russia could defeat Finland, especially in light of their poor performance in Ukraine.
Well one can't rely on the Russian performance staying as bad as it is currently, to do so would be at best unwise.
Russia has enough manpower that they could eventually overwhelm Finland via sheer numbers… or if all else fails use WMDs.

That being said, given past history, what Russia is doing to Ukraine and Finland’s generally high war readiness via universal conscription… every inch of Finnish territory Russia takes would likely be paid in blood (not that Putin cares of course).
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Crazy_Vasey »

I don't think things that happened a hundred years ago are a particularly good guideline to what would happen today. The early days of the Second World War were very poorly executed by Britain and France and everyone involved paid a very serious price for that in the end.

But anyway, the EU has mutual defence clauses written into its treaties, and it would genuinely break the union if they left a member to suffer Russian aggression alone. What's the point of an alliance that leaves you to swing, right? The UK's involvement is, imo, largely symbolic and just serves as a chivvy to the EU's less enthusiastic members and more importantly for the people inking these deals it's a way for Boris to get some desperately needed good press. He's really only good for hot air and this is a time where that stuff is actually appreciated by a lot of people.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Ralin »

Isn't Finland's military and national defense heavily planned around the specific goal of fighting off a Russian invasion and making it as painful as possible if they can't?
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

Ralin wrote: 2022-05-14 12:54pm Isn't Finland's military and national defense heavily planned around the specific goal of fighting off a Russian invasion and making it as painful as possible if they can't?
Well who else would we fight Sweden hasn't been in major wars since the 19th century, we barely got a border with Norway and it's up north anyway far from anything vital for either country, Estonia is far too small and Germany and rest of Western Europe is too far, which pretty much leaves the only realistic threat to be Russia.

That said part of that plan is to make sure we don't underestimate said threat either. We know perfectly well that Russia (and before that the Soviet Union) can overwhelm us with sheer numbers (there's a fairly common joke here that Russia has more soldiers on their side of the border then Finland has people in total) however such brute force tactics are extremely expensive against a prepared opponents and not just in manpower all the equipment lost needs to be paid some way as well.

In essence (and bare in mind I never made it past private during my service so all I know is public knowledge) you defense strategy is make the Russian HQ look at cost of annexing Finland, then look at gains they would get from that and after that look at what they would gain from a free and independent Finland and after they've done all that have them go "fuck this invading them is not worth the cost".
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

Tribble wrote: 2022-05-14 12:06pm
Lord Revan wrote: 2022-05-14 10:45am
EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2022-05-13 02:14pm
If Finland has any more soldiers like Simo Häyhä I doubt Russia could defeat Finland, especially in light of their poor performance in Ukraine.
Well one can't rely on the Russian performance staying as bad as it is currently, to do so would be at best unwise.
Russia has enough manpower that they could eventually overwhelm Finland via sheer numbers… or if all else fails use WMDs.

That being said, given past history, what Russia is doing to Ukraine and Finland’s generally high war readiness via universal conscription… every inch of Finnish territory Russia takes would likely be paid in blood (not that Putin cares of course).
Well as I said earlier it's not just blood that needs to be paid, all the wrecked tanks, planes, ships and rifles need to be replaced and those aren't gonna be cheap and when the Russian elite finds that thanks to the war their wallets have more moths then rubles they're gonna be upset.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

Mariupol finally fell.
More than 260 Ukrainian fighters, including those badly wounded, have been evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol and taken to areas under Russia's control.

Branded "heroes of our time" by the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, scores of troops have been trapped in the bombed remains of the giant plant for 82 days.

Azovstal served as the last stronghold of resistance in the shattered port city.

Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Anna Malyar said that on Monday, 53 seriously wounded fighters were taken to a hospital in Novoazovsk.

An additional 211 fighters were evacuated to Olenivka through a humanitarian corridor and an exchange would be worked out for their return home, she said, adding up to 264 fighters in total.

However, the Ukrainian military reports Russian troops kept up their blockade of the plant on Tuesday.

The army’s General Staff said in a post on its official Facebook profile that “in Mariupol, the enemy concentrated its main efforts on blocking our units in the area of the Azovstal plant.”

Ukrainian authorities did not disclose the number of fighters who remain in the steel mill.

Those who have been evacuated will be interrogated, Russia’s main federal investigative body has said, as part of its probe into alleged “crimes by the Ukrainian regime against the civilian population” in Ukraine’s industrial east.

Russia’s Investigative Committee said in a Telegram post that “Russian investigators will identify the nationalists (and) test whether they have been involved in crimes committed against the civilian population.

"The information obtained during interrogations will be compared with other data available in records pertaining to criminal cases.”

It did not provide any additional information regarding the location or legal status of the Ukrainian fighters.

Ludmila’s son has been underneath the steel works, where he has had his leg amputated. They’ve had “no food, no water, no medicine”, she said.

Ludmila said she wishes there could be a guarantee of her son's safety.
She’s a bit calmer now because she hopes he was one of those on the evacuation buses but is still fearful as the fighters have been taken to areas under Russia's control. “But still I just wish there was someone who could guarantee his safety,” she told ITV News.

“So they won’t go missing, so nothing will happen to them.”

Lily Stupina, whose childhood sweetheart and husband is in there too, said they have lost around “20 or 30 kilograms.”

“We have maybe a kind of hope, a little kind of hope,” she said.

“But we don’t trust Russia at all. We don’t know what to feel, how to feel and what to think.”

Why is the evacuation a major milestone?

Aside from the steel mill, the besieged city of Mariupol is under complete Russian control.

The full capture of Azovstal would be significant for Russia, as it would give Moscow its biggest victory of the war yet and could help free up forces for offensive action elsewhere in eastern Ukraine, a key focus of Russia's following a series of setbacks

Russia called the operation a mass surrender. The Ukrainians avoided using that word, but said the garrison had completed its mission.

The commander of the Azov Regiment, which led the defence of the plant, said the "mission" had ended with as many lives saved as possible.
“Absolutely safe plans and operations don’t exist during war,” Lieutenant Colonel Denis Prokopenko said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the evacuation to separatist-controlled territory was done to save the lives of the fighters who have spent weeks underground. He added that the “heavily wounded” were getting medical help.
“Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes to be alive. It’s our principle,” Mr Zelenskyy said.

"The work continues to bring the guys home and it requires delicacy and time."

After nightfall on Monday, several buses pulled away from the steel mill accompanied by Russian military vehicles. There was no immediate word on whether the wounded would be considered prisoners of war.

Oleksandr Danylyuk, a Ukrainian former national security chief and finance minister, told the BBC those evacuated should be swapped for Russian prisoners.

However, Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the lower house of the Russian parliament, said there are “war criminals” among the plant defenders and they should tried, rather than exchanged.

Mariupol has seen some of the worst fighting since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, with hundreds of civilians only recently finding safety and many others dying.
I would be amazed if any of the captured Ukrainians are seen alive again- based on Russia's slaughter of civilians they're going to kill every last one of them.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Eternal_Freedom »

Something about that article really jumped out at me as ultimate proof that this is the 2020's: "The army’s General Staff said in a post on its official Facebook profile" - the fact that an army's General Staff has an official Facebook profile is just surreal.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Broomstick »

I've been living the future so long (in comparison to the world I grew up in) that that sort of sureality no longer generates much reaction in me. But yes, very 2020's.
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