The 2016 US Election (Part IV)

[Tvpnbb]

Looks like NH just edged over to Clinton. If PA and MI flip to Clinton and everything else stays as is, then if I'm reading the map right ... the best Clinton can hope for is an electoral college tie, which might as well be a Trump win.

Yeah, barring disloyal electors.

[Block]

The Democrats were too fucking stupid/myopic to run and nominate a candidate that actually did well with unaffiliated voters. Again.

Yeah, I can't understand why the South has such an influence over the Democratic nominee. That's basically how she won.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

The Democrats were too fucking stupid/myopic to run and nominate a candidate that actually did well with unaffiliated voters. Again.

To be fair, Joe Biden didn't want to run. So the Democrats were left with choosing between Hillary, and her perceived allergies to transparency, and an old man with bad hair that yells at clouds.

[PainRack]

Gods.... Trump is winning... With House and Senate

[Gaidin]

To be fair, Joe Biden didn't want to run. So the Democrats were left with choosing between Hillary, and her perceived allergies to transparency, and an old man with bad hair that yells at clouds.

On top of that Bernie waited until the day before he declared his candidacy to switch to Dem. No way he was going to overrun the Democratic Machine like that. He needed at least a few years legitimately with EVERYBODY before he could pull that shit off.

[Block]

The Democrats were too fucking stupid/myopic to run and nominate a candidate that actually did well with unaffiliated voters. Again.

To be fair, Joe Biden didn't want to run. So the Democrats were left with choosing between Hillary, and her perceived allergies to transparency, and an old man with bad hair that yells at clouds.

Perceived? She fucking lied about having a cold because... reasons.

[Thanas]

All I can say is that Comey should take a long look in the mirror and congratulate himself. What a good fucking job he did.


Goddamn it, I knew Americans were stupid, but I never thought they'd be this stupid.

[Elfdart]

The Democrats were too fucking stupid/myopic to run and nominate a candidate that actually did well with unaffiliated voters. Again.

To be fair, Joe Biden didn't want to run. So the Democrats were left with choosing between Hillary, and her perceived allergies to transparency, and an old man with bad hair that yells at clouds.

This is why you NEVER nominate a candidate just because it's "their turn". The track record of such candidates is piss-poor (only Truman and Bush Sr won).

[Darksider]

Looking at the data right now for MI and PN, does it look to anyone else like Hillary could've won those states if Jill Stein hadn't run?

[Patroklos]

All I can say is that Comey should take a long look in the mirror and congratulate himself. What a good fucking job he did.


Goddamn it, I knew Americans were stupid, but I never thought they'd be this stupid.

Do you honestly think that's what did it? Losing NC/FL/OH is one thing, but giving up (probably) PA/WI/MI is epic. Comey can't possibly be the reason for that. There is something deeply flawed in the predictions and polling regarding this election.

[Mr Bean]

All I can say is that Comey should take a long look in the mirror and congratulate himself. What a good fucking job he did.


Goddamn it, I knew Americans were stupid, but I never thought they'd be this stupid.

Do you honestly think that's what did it? Losing NC/FL/OH is one thing, but giving up (probably) PA/WI/MI is epic. Comey can't possibly be the reason for that. There is something deeply flawed in the predictions and polling regarding this election.

Per Nate Silver @538 he's already put up the preliminary numbers but Secretary Clinton under preformed her poll numbers by a solid 3% in most states which is a massive discrepancy in pollster land.

[Elfdart]

All I can say is that Comey should take a long look in the mirror and congratulate himself. What a good fucking job he did.


Goddamn it, I knew Americans were stupid, but I never thought they'd be this stupid.

Benjamin Franklin predicted this over 200 years ago:

“I agree to this Constitution with all its faults, if they are such: because I think a General Government necessary for us, and there is no Form of Government but what may be a Blessing to the People if well-administred; and I believe farther that this is likely to be well administred for a Course of Years and can only end in Despotism as other Forms have done before it, when the People shall become so corrupted as to need Despotic Government, being incapable of any other.”

Quite frankly, we were overdue for a full-fledged fascist mountebank who doesn't even pretend to be anything but, and now we've got one.

[aerius]

Do you honestly think that's what did it? Losing NC/FL/OH is one thing, but giving up (probably) PA/WI/MI is epic. Comey can't possibly be the reason for that. There is something deeply flawed in the predictions and polling regarding this election.

I'll have to find the articles again, but the short version is they fucked up the voter distribution and turnout models.

[Napoleon the Clown]

Silver had uncanny accuracy for Obama, outside that I don't think his predictions have shown any special levels of foresight. I can't be assed to look up his track record, though.

[The Vortex Empire]

Welp, hopefully the DNC learns from this and doesn't nominate another status quo establishment candidate in 2020. I bet they do it anyway.

[Elfdart]

Looking at the data right now for MI and PN, does it look to anyone else like Hillary could've won those states if Jill Stein hadn't run?

Not really. Stein's numbers were only a fraction of what Hillary needed to overcome Trump's lead. You're assuming Stein voters would have automatically switched to Hillary if Stein wasn't on the ballot.

[Jaepheth]

In this allegory:
The house = America
Alice = Minorities
... The Dodo and the White Rabbit may be a bit on the nose though...

[Block]

Welp, hopefully the DNC learns from this and doesn't nominate another status quo establishment candidate in 2020. I bet they do it anyway.

They will. The narrative already being built is that it's backlash against a black president and "the gays." Not that she lost Wisconsin because she didn't step foot in it after the Primaries, or because she ignored a lot of the economic issues that voters in swing states said were important to them. Unless I'm wrong, and we had historic levels of voter turnout, she just didn't inspire people who weren't already in the bag for her to show up. There's caveats to what I said, as I do think his core was absolutely racist morons, but as I posted earlier, NBC was saying that she got 10%less of the suburban women than Obama did, there's some sort of lesson there.

[Tvpnbb]

Aaand according to the NYT forecast, Clinton will win the popular vote by about 1%. So yeah...

Oddly enough, the near-inevitable (probably already inevitable) Trump victory completes a weird pattern - if you look at the presidential elections from 1940 to 1976 and the elections from 1980 to 2016 from side to side, you notice that they repeat the same pattern but with parties reversed. I.e:

40, 44, 89 DEM - 52, 56 REP - 60, 64 DEM - 68, 72 REP - 76 DEM
80, 84, 88 REP - 92, 96 DEM - 00, 04 REP - 08, 12 DEM - 16 REP

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Looking at the data right now for MI and PN, does it look to anyone else like Hillary could've won those states if Jill Stein hadn't run?

No. Jill Stein's numbers were tiny. Less than a percentage point in most cases. Not enough to overcome all the fair-weather Republicans who ditched Johnson and the "undecided" voters too cowardly to admit to planning to vote to a racist, sexist, narcissistic, wannabe fascist to a pollster (but let their dark hearts run free in the privacy of the voting booth.)

[Napoleon the Clown]

Welp, hopefully the DNC learns from this and doesn't nominate another status quo establishment candidate in 2020. I bet they do it anyway.

They didn't learn in 2000. They didn't learn in 2004. 2008 Obama was an absolute shock to the DNC establishment. They're not going to learn this time, either. When the response to unaffiliated voters wanting to participate in selecting the candidate they ultimately vote for amounts to "Fuck off, we want your vote NOT your opinion" it's no surprise when you end up with nominees that have roughly as much popularity with said unaffiliated voters as a bottle of five years in the sun milk.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Anyway, barring a giant meteorite landing on Trump tower, this election's over. For the first time, I must admit that I am legitimately ashamed of being a citizen of the United States.

[Gaidin]

Silver had uncanny accuracy for Obama, outside that I don't think his predictions have shown any special levels of foresight. I can't be assed to look up his track record, though.

Silver is actually the most hilariously closest statistician of the evening. All of the others were rating Clinton at 80% or above. Princeton was giving Clinton 99%. Silver? He was at best saying "Yea guys, I'm giving her a weighted coin. She can flip it whenever she's ready."

[Flagg]

All I can say is that Comey should take a long look in the mirror and congratulate himself. What a good fucking job he did.

It's mission accomplished. From seeing some interviews last week when they said there was nothing to it some insiders flat out said that elements within the FBI were chugging Trump dick like like it was Gatorade and purposely torpedoed Clinton.

Goddamn it, I knew Americans were stupid, but I never thought they'd be this stupid.

Please, this fucked up waterbrained population elected Dubya once in 2004. Now they have (assuming Clinton doesn't pull off a miracle or there is proof of Russian hacking/vote tampering) elected a goddamned open white supremacist bigot rapist. The only people I feel worse for than the people Rapist Donnie Douchebag will fuck over with his hateful reactionary politics, are the women that came forward to talk about Trump sexually assaulting them since he believes in retribution and payback.

Plus he's a textbook psychopath.

[Iroscato]

Trump's apparently won Pennsylvania. It's over.