Ukraine War Thread

[NecronLord]

I have updated the thread title as there are no longer streetbattles in the Maidan.

[Broomstick]

Actually, what is happening is eerily similar to 1914. If the East of Ukraine revolts and "separates" en masse, this would mean the end of Ukraine as a state. It would be literally torn apart by two, part will be annexed by Europe, part by Russia. It may spiral out of control.

Is the last sentence a euphemism for World War III?

One would hope not... but it is a possible way for such a thing to start. No one wants WWIII, which goes some way towards preventing some of the worse potential reactions, but only time will tell where this goes.

[Thanas]

There will not be a world war over Crimea.

Most likely scenario is they will split, then be sanctioned by the EU which will lead to Putin pouring billions down the drain to stabilize it and to bribe enough people. Then there will be fun times with the borders when the Ukraine no longer allows Russia to drive to the Crimea meaning supplies will have to be brought in via sea. Meanwhile the industries get hit with heavy tariffs and survive only due to more money by Putin.

In another decade or so when the place has utterly gone to crap it will reapply for entry. That will be the real danger for a war to break out if Russia is not inclined to let them go. Or they continue to be a part of Russia, albeit much poorer than they were before.

Meanwhile the EU gets to deal with paranoid and revanchist Ukraine, which will be even more fun times.

[Flagg]

We're not going to war over fucking Crimea any more than we would over the US occupying the Baja peninsula except Russia has more of a claim to Crimea.

[Irbis]

In fact, Europe has allowed Central Asia to fall into horrible regimes and has closed its eyes on the suffering of Central Asians in Russia (or the cleansing of Russians and mutual ethnic cleansings of Uzbeks and Tajiks in Central Asia itself).

"Europe" "has allowed" this? When did this happen? And what is the Europe in this sentence? The EEC? The EU? The Benelux? Germany? Scandinavia? Luxembourg? All of the above? None? Using a term like "allow" implies that whoever does the allowing has the means to disallow, or in this case prevent "Central Asia to fall into horrible regimes". Did it really? What was "Europe" supposed to do, deorbit its X-Com squads into Tashkent to assume direct control?

Yes, Europe. Old EU as it was before 2004. Want some examples? Just look how EU trats pro-Russian and anti-Russian countries of old USSR - we bash and embargo Lukashenko, but identical autocrat in Saakashvili and several unexplained deaths of his opponents during his reign were seen as pure democracy. Carpet bombardment of civilians? That never happened, and war was entirely Russian fault. Azerbaijan, with its tyrant who doesn't even give a damn about democracy pretensions, is cuddled as potential NATO and EU member. Oh, wait, he has gas reserves the size of Qatar, of course no one will say anything bad to him. Do you realize how this makes EU look in the old Soviet zone? No better than USA, these people look how EU treats countries and the only difference they see is whose side the bastard on top is.

Want one fresh, revelant example? Mykola Azarov, disgraced Prime Minister of Ukraine under Yanukovych, once he lost his seat ran to cozy hideout... No, not in Russia, in Vienna. He has a nice nest egg with several companies that will provide him everything he wants for the rest of his life there. The mysterious planes that carried away running officials of Yanukovych? Not Ukrainian, Austrian, Avcon Jet. But then again, why not, the number of ex-Soviet oligarchs, mafia leaders, conmen that found cosy seats in the West is truly staggering. Berezovsky, Abramovich, and the rest - moral values are apparently worth less than their bank value. What do you think people they stolen from think of EU when they see lowest scum hailed as champions of democracy - just because they don't like Putin?

The issue is really simple. Want to show the rest of ex-USSR we really mean all the fables about human rights, moral values and rule of law? Simple, arrest the lot of them, determine how much they stole, confiscate the sum and hand it back to people they stole from. Do it to everyone, without picking sides, even if they really don't like people we don't like. Don't embargo countries, embargo officials. They care about European goods and homes, it's much better way to force them to behave than just utter few angry words and then embrace them after they are on the run. If that means some dirty funds won't be washed here, so be it. Throw idiotic policy of funding anti-country projects just because you hate its leader to trash bin (it doesn't work and only makes them angry at EU, not at dear leader) and try to help and appeal to its people instead.

Let's be frank here: the EU is the closest the continent has come to a single-voiced "Europe" since the Roman Empire, and it even today barely has such a thing as a common foreign policy. It was even worse in the past. So to suggest that in the nineties or whenever there even was a "Europe" that "allowed" events tens of thousands of miles away in Central Asia to unfold as if it was in any position to do a single goddamn thing about what was going down is absolutely ludicrous.

Oh, you don't need common foreign policy. Just don't deal with anyone breaking laws of your country and embargo such people. Company X horribly exploits local people and robs them of their land? Embargo. Pollutes environment leaving earth so toxic heavy metal poisoning makes the soil mining economically viable? Pressure to change their mind. In short, do something to enforce EU standards in cooperation. Show you really mean what you preach.

One country that did that was Spain, with its courts being one thing that let hundreds of thousands of foreign victims to know even tiny bit of justice, but sadly, right wing government recently forbid that in quick cash grab. Pecunia non olet, who cares about values?

I think SDN has been traditionally quick to overreact to international events-if anything, it seems more like the Turkish takeover of northern Cyprus, if you want an historical parallel.

More like Kosovo. Except, you know, for the fact that Kosovo was part of the Serbia 1200 years and Crimea was gifted to Ukraine by Ukrainian USSR leader 50 years ago.

Then there will be fun times with the borders when the Ukraine no longer allows Russia to drive to the Crimea meaning supplies will have to be brought in via sea.

You know that constructing bridge over Kerch Strait is trivial (one was build quickly during WWII), in fact, there was supposed to be one built in early 2000s but tensions and Ukraine wanting to isolate Crimea from Russia broke the talks?

And anyway, southern Ukraine has Russian speaking majority too and if they will decide to oppose nationalist government as well Crimea will get easy land access.

Meanwhile the industries get hit with heavy tariffs and survive only due to more money by Putin.

You mean, poorer and more dependent Ukraine half embargoing the richer and better developed one? Because in case of breakaway regions joining Russian trade zone there will be no tariffs from Russia and Belarus.

In another decade or so when the place has utterly gone to crap it will reapply for entry.

You mean, like Abkhazia and Osetia did?

Because in most recent example in Europe, when USA, France, Germany and UK tore nationalist part out of pro-Russian country, Kosovo (where was holy territorial integrity then?) it was the nationalist part that went to crap, not the embargoed leftover, despite sums sunk into reconstruction.

[Thanas]

Russian/Seperatist Gangs are apparently hunting down pro-ukrainian politicians in the Crimea. So much for free voting there.

[cosmicalstorm]

There has been a lot of general tension in the world. It all has the feel of World War written over it. Lets hope not.

[Thanas]

Russian/Seperatist Gangs are apparently hunting down pro-ukrainian politicians in the Crimea. So much for free voting there.

Even more, from the guardian live blog - the Pro Russia demonstrations appear little more than political showmanship not indicative of the general will of the people. A few hours after cameras were gone the squares were empty like this:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhpCvgfCIAA_H0S.png

Meanwhile, the unmarked guys were indeed Russian soldiers: https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant/stat ... 6571468800

By all accounts it looks like Russia did not wait for the people to vote to act. The referendum cannot be characterized as free and democratic now, not with Russian troops already having taken control.

[Dominus Atheos]

Give or take 24 hours and John "There isn't a War I Wouldn't Love to Start" McCain will be on 12 channels saying we're all Ukrainians now.

You seriously underestimate John McCain. He already said that yesterday:

Senator John McCain: “We Are All Ukrainians”

Feb. 28, 2014

http://swampland.time.com/2014/02/28/uk ... in-crimea/

[Thanas]

You know that constructing bridge over Kerch Strait is trivial (one was build quickly during WWII), in fact, there was supposed to be one built in early 2000s but tensions and Ukraine wanting to isolate Crimea from Russia broke the talks?

And anyway, southern Ukraine has Russian speaking majority too and if they will decide to oppose nationalist government as well Crimea will get easy land access.

We'll see how much territory the Russians manage to grab.

You mean, poorer and more dependent Ukraine half embargoing the richer and better developed one? Because in case of breakaway regions joining Russian trade zone there will be no tariffs from Russia and Belarus.

No, more like the EU deciding to not buy as many gas from Russia anymore and strengthening ties with other suppliers. If the EU does not finance 60% of Russian governemnt revenues anymore, what do you think will happen? Even if the EU just changes that by ten percent (could be done since Russia supplies about 1/3rd of all European gas) will cause huge problems for Russia.

-You mean, like Abkhazia and Osetia did?

The only thing that holds those colonies together is Russia pouring money down the sink. In the case of Ossetia, Russia is investing about 5 billion rubles per annum for a nearly worthless stip of land. They cannot do the same for Crimea, nor can they continue on forever.

Because in most recent example in Europe, when USA, France, Germany and UK tore nationalist part out of pro-Russian country, Kosovo (where was holy territorial integrity then?) it was the nationalist part that went to crap, not the embargoed leftover, despite sums sunk into reconstruction.

You mean Serbia? It wants to join the EU.

BTW, you really have to read up on Kosovo. Considering it always was the poorest part of Yugoslavia and all that.

[fgalkin]

Russian/Seperatist Gangs are apparently hunting down pro-ukrainian politicians in the Crimea. So much for free voting there.

While fascist gangs are doing the same to communist and Party of Regions officials everywhere else.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Thanas]

Russian/Seperatist Gangs are apparently hunting down pro-ukrainian politicians in the Crimea. So much for free voting there.

While fascist gangs are doing the same to communist and Party of Regions officials everywhere else.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

Who has been hunted down in the west?

EDIT: I don't doubt it is going on but I am not seeing names in the reports.

[fgalkin]

Russian/Seperatist Gangs are apparently hunting down pro-ukrainian politicians in the Crimea. So much for free voting there.

While fascist gangs are doing the same to communist and Party of Regions officials everywhere else.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

Who has been hunted down in the west?

EDIT: I don't doubt it is going on but I am not seeing names in the reports.

For example, Ukrainian news have reported that Right Sector has burnt down the house of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petro_Symonenko

http://photo.unian.net/eng/themes/45814

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Broomstick]

No, more like the EU deciding to not buy as many gas from Russia anymore and strengthening ties with other suppliers. If the EU does not finance 60% of Russian governemnt revenues anymore, what do you think will happen? Even if the EU just changes that by ten percent (could be done since Russia supplies about 1/3rd of all European gas) will cause huge problems for Russia.

If the EU stops buying couldn't the Russians turn around and sell it to the Chinese?

[Siege]

Do you realize how this makes EU look in the old Soviet zone?

Do you realize your rambling screed has nothing to do with what Stas and I were actually talking about? None of what you just said comes anywhere close to Europe somehow having had a meaningful way to affect the kind of regimes that formed in Central Asia in the wake of the collapse of the USSR. It's completely daft to imply that Europe somehow permitted, authorized, approved or sanctioned the way that particular shit train went off the rails, because Europe was not in a position to do anything about it.

Anyway. If the Ukrainian government believes this Azarov fellow you're talking about has committed crimes against the people of Ukraine I'm confident they're perfectly capable of issuing an international arrest warrant just like they did for Yanukovych. The same goes for Russia and its oligarchs, by the way.

Oh, you don't need common foreign policy. Just don't deal with anyone breaking laws of your country and embargo such people.

So you don't need a common foreign policy, but you need a common foreign policy. You do realize that's exactly what's required for an embargo to be done properly, right?

[Thanas]

For example, Ukrainian news have reported that Right Sector has burnt down the house of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petro_Symonenko

http://photo.unian.net/eng/themes/45814

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

Property damage is still a bit away from beating people up but I believe they would do the same given the opportunity. So I concede that part. The election cannot come soon enough.

[Exonerate]

Lithuania invokes Article 4 of NATO Treaty. Looks like the other ex-USSR states neighboring Russia are really getting nervous now - at risk is not just Ukraine, but the credibility of NATO among them.

[Borgholio]

Lithuania invokes Article 4 of NATO Treaty. Looks like the other ex-USSR states neighboring Russia are really getting nervous now - at risk is not just Ukraine, but the credibility of NATO among them.

Whelp...escalation in progress.

[mr friendly guy]

No, more like the EU deciding to not buy as many gas from Russia anymore and strengthening ties with other suppliers. If the EU does not finance 60% of Russian governemnt revenues anymore, what do you think will happen? Even if the EU just changes that by ten percent (could be done since Russia supplies about 1/3rd of all European gas) will cause huge problems for Russia.

If the EU stops buying couldn't the Russians turn around and sell it to the Chinese?

Russia already is increasing its sales of gas and oil to China.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/2 ... 0F20131022

Whether China can consume the whole lot of what they sell to the EU, hell if I know. I do suspect they might be able to but that would make Russia more dependent on one buyer.

[Irbis]

Even more, from the guardian live blog - the Pro Russia demonstrations appear little more than political showmanship not indicative of the general will of the people. A few hours after cameras were gone the squares were empty like this:

Except, every protest in eastern Ukraine in the last decade looked like this so far. Check press archives, I bet you will find quite a few articles laughing at attendance in say 2009, protests against Yushchenko. Yes, the less unemployment there is and the more people actually have to lose the smaller protests will be, didn't changed election results there in 2009.

And on the flip side, do you see any protest pro-Ukraine on Crimea? No? Then that side is even less indicating of general will.

By all accounts it looks like Russia did not wait for the people to vote to act. The referendum cannot be characterized as free and democratic now, not with Russian troops already having taken control.

But west Ukrainian thugs taking control over most of the country and judiciary ensures the process will be free and democratic, right? Especially after breaking a deal Germany and Poland helped to negotiate, and rushing to take control without a vote?

We'll see how much territory the Russians manage to grab.

If they do "grab" anything I do expect them to respect the will of the population, like in Abkhazia. If they do it against it, sure, they can be called occupiers/aggressors, but you may recall in 2008 Russia didn't occupy Georgia or changed it government despite perfect opportunity to do so, but withdrawn.

No, more like the EU deciding to not buy as many gas from Russia anymore and strengthening ties with other suppliers. If the EU does not finance 60% of Russian governemnt revenues anymore, what do you think will happen? Even if the EU just changes that by ten percent (could be done since Russia supplies about 1/3rd of all European gas) will cause huge problems for Russia.

Are you even listening to yourself?

One: Problems for "Russia" aren't problems for imaginary map piece, but for Russians. Oligarchs won't feel any bit of inconvenience, but EU will be worsening fate of 140 mln people for pretty much dick waving, worsening its image there for nothing. Unlike you, I lived through one tight western embargo, I know how it works first-hand.

Two: from where the gas will come from? From much worse tyrants in Central Asia or Persian Gulf? Great score for democracy, I guess, but at that point you stop even pretending you have any moral superiority.

Three: gas consumption in Europe is on the rise, thanks to all inane plans to abandon nuclear power and to increase burning of fossil fuels to compensate for renewables, so it's not the question of getting gas from somewhere else, soon we will need it from both places.

The only thing that holds those colonies together is Russia pouring money down the sink. In the case of Ossetia, Russia is investing about 5 billion rubles per annum for a nearly worthless stip of land. They cannot do the same for Crimea, nor can they continue on forever.

Oh, yeah, because a country blockaded on 4 sides, with only small tunnel to outside, in a region that was always poor and lacked in industry is going to do well. Still, surprise, it's doing better than analogical regions in Georgia or Armenia.

Also, are you telling me a handful of villages in poorest region in pretty much any EU country don't get big subsidies from central budget?

You mean Serbia? It wants to join the EU.

Small piece of Yugoslavia left after country was divided into tiny, easily annexable pieces that can't survive on their own? Especially after being surrounded by tight, impenetrable EU border and economy feeling war destruction and decade of sanctions?

It's funny how western states always hastily recognized breakaway republics when they happened in pro-Russian state, but talked about ironclad integrity otherwise. Yugoslavian wars didn't IMHO had to happen without support for mindless nationalism, these republics that really wanted to go away peacefully (Slovenia and Montenegro) were allowed to do so.

BTW, you really have to read up on Kosovo. Considering it always was the poorest part of Yugoslavia and all that.

It was, but you might look how the % of growth looked after intervention and attempts of cleanse Serbian north in 2000s.

Property damage is still a bit away from beating people up but I believe they would do the same given the opportunity.

Yeah, beginnings of Kristallnacht were innocent at first, too.

[Thanas]

And on the flip side, do you see any protest pro-Ukraine on Crimea? No? Then that side is even less indicating of general will.

Yes, actually there were pro Ukraine protests. They were then "dispersed" by the pro-Russian forces. The Crimean Tartars have been advised to stay at home lest they be injured by Russian forces.

But west Ukrainian thugs taking control over most of the country and judiciary ensures the process will be free and democratic, right? Especially after breaking a deal Germany and Poland helped to negotiate, and rushing to take control without a vote?

Considering the parliament is not controlled by the thugs, it will at least be freer than the Crimean one.

If they do "grab" anything I do expect them to respect the will of the population, like in Abkhazia. If they do it against it, sure, they can be called occupiers/aggressors, but you may recall in 2008 Russia didn't occupy Georgia or changed it government despite perfect opportunity to do so, but withdrawn.

Under intense pressure by the west to do so, sure.

Are you even listening to yourself?

One: Problems for "Russia" aren't problems for imaginary map piece, but for Russians. Oligarchs won't feel any bit of inconvenience, but EU will be worsening fate of 140 mln people for pretty much dick waving, worsening its image there for nothing. Unlike you, I lived through one tight western embargo, I know how it works first-hand.

[/quote]

The state however will feel a lot of inconvenience unless the oligarchs will voluntarily make up the shortfall (which will not happen).

Two: from where the gas will come from? From much worse tyrants in Central Asia or Persian Gulf? Great score for democracy, I guess, but at that point you stop even pretending you have any moral superiority.

They are not threatening democracy in Europe, unlike Putin. They do not destabilize neighboring countries, unlike Putin. That makes them better at the moment.

Three: gas consumption in Europe is on the rise, thanks to all inane plans to abandon nuclear power and to increase burning of fossil fuels to compensate for renewables, so it's not the question of getting gas from somewhere else, soon we will need it from both places.

However Russia's share of the gas has steadily dropped. It went down from half to one third, despite rising demand. One can easily replace a tenth of that third via other sources and therefore prevent Putin from getting as much money.

Oh, yeah, because a country blockaded on 4 sides, with only small tunnel to outside, in a region that was always poor and lacked in industry is going to do well. Still, surprise, it's doing better than analogical regions in Georgia or Armenia.

The only reason that is the case is because the Russians have stationed a lot of troops there who prop up the region by spending. If those were gone, the economy would quickly return to post-invasion level.

Also, are you telling me a handful of villages in poorest region in pretty much any EU country don't get big subsidies from central budget?

Define big subsidies? But still, that misses the point. The only reason they get a economy going is because of the Russian troops.

Small piece of Yugoslavia left after country was divided into tiny, easily annexable pieces that can't survive on their own? Especially after being surrounded by tight, impenetrable EU border and economy feeling war destruction and decade of sanctions?

It's funny how western states always hastily recognized breakaway republics when they happened in pro-Russian state, but talked about ironclad integrity otherwise. Yugoslavian wars didn't IMHO had to happen without support for mindless nationalism, these republics that really wanted to go away peacefully (Slovenia and Montenegro) were allowed to do so.

Are you that fucking stupid to claim the EU started the genocide in Bosnia and Kosovo?

-It was, but you might look how the % of growth looked after intervention and attempts of cleanse Serbian north in 200

That is to be expected considering the sanctions Serbia leveled against it and considering the whole country needed to be rebuilt. Right now it went a steady 5% growth over the last few years. Also do note that just a few years ago the country could finally get foreign investment.

[Thanas]

Meanwhile, I applaud Obama's telephone call to Putin.

President Obama spoke for 90 minutes this afternoon with President Putin of Russia about the situation in Ukraine. President Obama expressed his deep concern over Russia’s clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is a breach of international law, including Russia’s obligations under the UN Charter, and of its 1997 military basing agreement with Ukraine, and which is inconsistent with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the Helsinki Final Act. The United States condemns Russia’s military intervention into Ukrainian territory.

The United States calls on Russia to de-escalate tensions by withdrawing its forces back to bases in Crimea and to refrain from any interference elsewhere in Ukraine. We have consistently said that we recognize Russia’s deep historic and cultural ties to Ukraine and the need to protect the rights of ethnic Russian and minority populations within Ukraine. The Ukrainian government has made clear its commitment to protect the rights of all Ukrainians and to abide by Ukraine’s international commitments, and we will continue to urge them to do so.

President Obama told President Putin that, if Russia has concerns about the treatment of ethnic Russian and minority populations in Ukraine, the appropriate way to address them is peacefully through direct engagement with the government of Ukraine and through the dispatch of international observers under the auspices of the United Nations Security Council or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). As a member of both organizations, Russia would be able to participate. President Obama urged an immediate effort to initiate a dialogue between Russia and the Ukrainian government, with international facilitation, as appropriate. The United States is prepared to participate.

President Obama made clear that Russia’s continued violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would negatively impact Russia’s standing in the international community. In the coming hours and days, the United States will urgently consult with allies and partners in the UN Security Council, the North Atlantic Council, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and with the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum. The United States will suspend upcoming participation in preparatory meetings for the G-8. Going forward, Russia’s continued violation of international law will lead to greater political and economic isolation.

The people of Ukraine have the right to determine their own future. President Obama has directed his Administration to continue working urgently with international partners to provide support for the Ukrainian government, including urgent technical and financial assistance. Going forward, we will continue consulting closely with allies and partners, the Ukrainian government and the International Monetary Fund, to provide the new government with significant assistance to secure financial stability, to support needed reforms, to allow Ukraine to conduct successful elections, and to support Ukraine as it pursues a democratic future.

And I also agree with the opinon piece of the Guardian:

From Putin's perspective, a coup would be payback for what he regards as the western-backed takeover of Kiev by opposition forces – or fascists, as the Kremlin media calls them. The Kremlin argument runs something like this: if armed gangs can seize power in the Ukrainian capital, storming government buildings, why can't pro-Russian forces do the same thing in Crimea? (It is another high-stakes manifestation of the Kremlin's favourite doctrine, "whataboutism". If Kosovo, then Crimea etc.)

[...]

In Crimea, by contrast, the shadowy Russian troops are equipped with the latest gear – they are professionals, not amateur homegrown revolutionaries. Ukrainian officials point to the GRU, Russian military intelligence. And the warp-speed tempo of events in Crimea is being dictated from the top, not the bottom – from Moscow, rather than the street.

The choreography has been impressive. Within hours of the airport seizure, Russian MPs proposed a bill in the state Duma simplifying procedures for getting Russian passports to Ukrainians. The goal, the MPs said, was to protect a "brotherly nation". Russia's most important opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, meanwhile, has been placed under house arrest for two months and denied access to the internet. The Kremlin, that most risk-averse of entities, has everything covered.

It only remains to be seen what role Yanukovych will play in this fast-moving drama. Despite having fled the country, he insists that he is still Ukraine's legitimate president. He is giving a press conference on Friday in the southern Russian town of Rostov-on-Don, close to the Ukrainian border.

This may seem like a bizarre provincial venue. But there is method here too: Russia refuses to recognise Kiev's new pro-western interim government as a legitimate partner. It is likely to continue to treat Yanukovych – whose regime is accused of plundering $70bn (£42bn) from Ukraine's treasury – as the head of a government-in-exile. It may even seek to return him to Crimea to continue his "executive" functions. Given Yanukovych's love of bling, Crimea's sumptuous Livadia Palace – where Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill met to discuss Europe's 1945 postwar carve-up – might serve as his new HQ.

Spare a thought, meanwhile, for Crimea's Tartars. They are the peninsula's original Turkic-speaking Muslim inhabitants. Well-educated and politically organised, they now number 300,000, 15% of Crimea's population. They want to remain part of Ukraine. They support Kiev's new pro-EU leadership.

They also have their own awful folk memories of Russian colonisation and exile: in 1944, Stalin deported the Tartars and other smaller groups to central Asia. They mostly came home after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Understandably, they may now fear being cast once again in the role of fifth columnists. So far the Kremlin has said nothing about their rights.

All of this presents the west with one of its biggest crises since the cold war. Russia has mounted a major land grab of a neighbouring sovereign state. How will the west react?

Hopefully by not letting Putin get away with it. There can be no free elections under the barrel of a gun.

[Flagg]

Give or take 24 hours and John "There isn't a War I Wouldn't Love to Start" McCain will be on 12 channels saying we're all Ukrainians now.

You seriously underestimate John McCain. He already said that yesterday:

Senator John McCain: “We Are All Ukrainians”

Feb. 28, 2014

http://swampland.time.com/2014/02/28/uk ... in-crimea/

OLD MAN YELLS AT CLOUD!

[Flagg]

Thanas, what can we reasonably do?

[The Kernel]

Thanas, what can we reasonably do?

We could arm Russia's other neighbors to the teeth with all sorts of goodies, reinstate plans for an Eastern European missile defense base and start all out economic war against Russia all with a justification we never had before. If we were determined to make this hurt for Putin we certainly could do so and I have to wonder if people are reading this situation all wrong. This act has the potential to thrust most of the old Soviet Republics even more firmly into the arms of NATO and the EU and I can't Russia getting anything significant out of this action.

EDIT: I am curious though if anyone could speak to exactly how much resistance the Ukranian military could put up if the Russians decide to do a full push to bring down the new government in Kiev. Obviously they can't win but Ukraine is much larger and more populated than Georgia and I seem to recall them being pretty well armed...what sort of force would the Russians need to take and hold the region?