Uprising in Libya

[Sea Skimmer]

The rebel National Liberation Army around Ajdabiya has ended two months of static defense, brought up dozens of tanks and armored vehicles; they claim over 100 but such large numbers are not confirmable at this point nor likely, and commenced a major attack against Qaddafis troops around Brega in the last four or five hours.

[CaptainChewbacca]

So if they break Brega, thats kinda it isn't it?

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

In other news, the United States (and twenty-one other Western nations) finally gets their collective thumbs out of their asses and recognizes the Libyan rebels as the official government of Libya. Which means we might just finally stop sitting on all those frozen Libyan assets and give the new government some cash to, you know, keep their half of the country from collapsing.

The United States just announced that it now considers the main opposition group in Libya to be that country's legitimate government.

The Transitional National Council that opposes Col. Moammar Gadhafi won international recognition from the U.S. and other members of the Contact Group, the 22 nations who coalesced to address Libya's future. NPR's Peter Kenyon is at the Group's summit in Istanbul and tells NPR Newscast Desk that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made the announcement.

The Associated Press notes that "diplomatic recognition of the council means that the U.S. will be able to fund the opposition with some of the more than $30 billion in Gadhafi-regime assets that are frozen in American banks."

As Eyder wrote this week, France has apparently been holding serious talks with Gadhafi "emissaries" about getting the Libyan ruler to leave power.

[Sea Skimmer]

So if they break Brega, thats kinda it isn't it?

No it just means they take Brega and prove they can win a major battle. Totally defeating and capturing the defenders might mean something big in terms of collapsing Qaddafi, but I doubt that will happen, more likely they'll just fall back to Ras lanuf or Sirte. Remember this is all a very long way from Tripoli.

The UK has announced it will begin flying four more Tornadoes . That basically will replace the F-16s Norway withdrew earlier.

[Slacker]

I sort of think they waited this long to force the government to a set-piece battle so they had the time to train both the people manning those armored vehicles and tanks AND the rebel troops that'll operate with them how to work with armor support, which is a far cry from technicals. If they take Brega and get the money they've been supposed to been getting all this time, it could finally be the endgame.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Is it just me, or does it seem like this is some sort of experiment to determine what the absolute MINIMUM amount of involvement will topple a hostile foreign power?

[Lonestar]

It's just that the Europeans don't like being told that they are expected to resolve shit in their backyard with minimal help from us.

[Thanas]

Or that the militaries of the EU are not up to it?

[Lonestar]

Or that the militaries of the EU are not up to it?

Possibly that as well. I'll be honest, I seriously did not think that the EU was this seriously weakened. Ink Spots had some weak-ass reading about it too. Complete with Shep-grade graphs:









(there's a few more if you follow the lin)
etc.

It's worth noting that Demark, Norway, and Canada are all below the agreed upon 2% of the GDP for military expenditure and they are hitting well above their weight class in the Libyan campaign(I think the Norway and Denmark have between them done 30% of the airstrikes. Can't rightly recall where I heard it, might have been Midrats...)

[Thanas]

They might just have better training or hit a good point in their training cycle.

For example, I very much doubt that Germany could be much help in bombing missions as well since our bombers are very old and the Eurofighter is still in training...I mean, up to two years ago our standard interceptor (those squadrons who are always on standby) was still the Phantom.

[Artemas]

potentially, but given how small their forces are, in comparison to germany, italy, et al (and farther away), it seems more likely that the others are just seriously out of shape.

[Siege]

Or the others can't politically afford to be seen to engage in bombing missions. I know that the NATO secretary-general recently asked The Netherlands to expand the role of its F-16 missions to bombings and our PM basically went "uh yeah no way". It's political dynamite: you hit one bus full of civilians and the opposition is going to skin you alive. With an economic crisis and a fuckton of other problems to deal with no politician in his right mind is going to stick his head into a noose like that.

[Artemas]

yeah, thats a big one too. Italy has historic ties, and are loathe to do anything overt, the germans didnt want anything to do with it in the first place, but the point is that even the large and robust nations, like the UK and france can't carry it alone either, they needed the states to step in and provide a lot of capabilities.

But what i was getting at is how well a country is geared for what is essentially expeditionary fighting. Canada, Norway, Netherlands, UK, France, and the Danes all have a lot more experience with it than a lot of the other EU nations, which explains why the smaller countries are punching above their weight. But the severe decline in capabilities has hit everyone, especially the larger countries, like France and Britain, hard.

[Nieztchean Uber-Amoeba]

At this point, would it have been cheaper if the intervening countries had made a much larger commitment and (presumably) ended the war quickly, or at least caused enough damage to Qaddafi's war-fighting capability to decisively determine the outcome? I can't see this kind of drawn-out force commitment being particular economical, not to mention the cost to Libya.

[Artemas]

well, before you commit, you need to know what you;re trying to achieve. for most of this crisis, this has just been a (a very biased) no-flyzone mission. if you intend to off ghaddafi, or end it quicker that requires a far more substantial undertaking; both politically and militarily. i don't think that anyone (maybe france) really wanted to actually put men on the ground.

its really quite damning of european defence that the only way i can see a quick intervention having worked (or happening) was if the US spearheaded everything, even to the point of unilaterism.

[[R_H]]

So when will Blackwater Xe the Crusading Contractors be hired to "assist" the anti-Qaddafi forces?

I vaguely remember BW offering to set-up an intervention force for the UN or something a couple of years ago.

[Sea Skimmer]

They might just have better training or hit a good point in their training cycle.

For example, I very much doubt that Germany could be much help in bombing missions as well since our bombers are very old and the Eurofighter is still in training...I mean, up to two years ago our standard interceptor (those squadrons who are always on standby) was still the Phantom.

Planes from WW2 could have been largely effective bombing Qaddafi's vast ammunition dumps and vehicle storage buildings, most of which are located in the middle of nowhere. NATO had plenty of firepower to handle this with minimal US support, as bad as European forces are this was and is no real test of skill, only endurance. Its only political absurdity limiting forces and limiting target choices that's made it so painfully drawn out. More air power may not have won the war by now, but it probably would have. Qaddafis troops simply won't fight with heavy weapons when aircraft are overhead. German planes flying and not even dropping bombs could have made a real difference. The rebels almost always win in the end when the battles just pit technical against technical.

At this point, would it have been cheaper if the intervening countries had made a much larger commitment and (presumably) ended the war quickly, or at least caused enough damage to Qaddafi's war-fighting capability to decisively determine the outcome? I can't see this kind of drawn-out force commitment being particular economical, not to mention the cost to Libya.

Damn Straight. Air power is an attritional weapon, and it needs intensity to be effective. NATO basically took the worst course of action by not bombing logistical, ammo and vehicle concentrations for weeks, and then only slowly demolished them with a few planes at a time leaving Qaddafi’s people with ample time to disperse everything so that they'll never reasonably run out of anything. Of course, simply arming the rebels on a significant scale would have also done wonders.


Anyway going back to the news the rebels claim to have gotten as close to 4km to Brega with one attack axis before night fell on the 15th. The sun will be back up in an hour or two and the battle will be back on. Its no sure thing they will take the city but this appears to be the closest they have gotten since the Qaddafi's push east recaptured Brega in the first place.

[Sea Skimmer]

Looks like the rebels are claiming at a new conference to have driven off Qaddafis defenders at Brega, but not yet secured the town owing to minefields and booby traps. We'll have to wait and see about that.

[Lord Zentei]

its really quite damning of european defence that the only way i can see a quick intervention having worked (or happening) was if the US spearheaded everything, even to the point of unilaterism.

Hasn't that been pretty obviously the case for quite some time now? The Europeans have been quite content to let the US do all the heavy lifting in international interventions. And then they criticize the US for being unilateralsit - as if there were any other way of getting things done. Hopefully they'll figure out that they can't be taken seriously if they keep that up.

[JointStrikeFighter]

its really quite damning of european defence that the only way i can see a quick intervention having worked (or happening) was if the US spearheaded everything, even to the point of unilaterism.

Hasn't that been pretty obviously the case for quite some time now? The Europeans have been quite content to let the US do all the heavy lifting in international interventions. And then they criticize the US for being unilateralsit - as if there were any other way of getting things done. Hopefully they'll figure out that they can't be taken seriously if they keep that up.

I don't think you really understand the concerns of Europe.

[Lord Zentei]

its really quite damning of european defence that the only way i can see a quick intervention having worked (or happening) was if the US spearheaded everything, even to the point of unilaterism.

Hasn't that been pretty obviously the case for quite some time now? The Europeans have been quite content to let the US do all the heavy lifting in international interventions. And then they criticize the US for being unilateralsit - as if there were any other way of getting things done. Hopefully they'll figure out that they can't be taken seriously if they keep that up.

I don't think you really understand the concerns of Europe.

I'm pretty sure I do, though why don't you fill me in on them.

And yes, I know about concerns regarding the legality of interventions vis-a-vis the UNSC (that's not what I was condoning). Though the funny thing is that many in the UNSC think that the Europeans have exceeded their authority in this little adventure too.

[CJvR]

The fall of Brega in itself is rather irrelevant, how it fell is much more important.
If the garisson was wiped out it is a major victory, if they just retreated down the coast it is hardly worth mentioning.

[JointStrikeFighter]

I'm pretty sure I do, though why don't you fill me in on them.

And yes, I know about concerns regarding the legality of interventions vis-a-vis the UNSC (that's not what I was condoning). Though the funny thing is that many in the UNSC think that the Europeans have exceeded their authority in this little adventure too.

Protip; the issue isn't America handling military action unilaterally; its America engaging in military action regardless of what everyone else thinks.

[Lord Zentei]

I'm pretty sure I do, though why don't you fill me in on them.

And yes, I know about concerns regarding the legality of interventions vis-a-vis the UNSC (that's not what I was condoning). Though the funny thing is that many in the UNSC think that the Europeans have exceeded their authority in this little adventure too.

Protip; the issue isn't America handling military action unilaterally; its America engaging in military action regardless of what everyone else thinks.

Yes. So in other words exceeding their authority, like China and Russia claim the Europeans are doing now, yes?

Unless by "engaging in military action regardless of what everyone else thinks" you mean legal military action which happens to be unpopular, but I don't think that was it.

[Sea Skimmer]

The fall of Brega in itself is rather irrelevant, how it fell is much more important.
If the garisson was wiped out it is a major victory, if they just retreated down the coast it is hardly worth mentioning.

That is part true, but who holds Brega is fairly important no matter what, because it would mean that even if the country split or otherwise must negotiate a settlement, the rebels control a heck of a lot more oil and the ability to load it on ships then they hold without Brega. It also means they control a very major terminus of the Libyan great manmade river project, and the huge plant which makes the pipe segments for said project.

Anyway at this point the rebels claim to have reached a residential area and are fighting street to street, but its not clear that this is in Brega proper or in ‘new brega’ which is about 10km further east. Several times they captured new brega before pulling back in the past. Some video I saw last night of the fighting showed fairly heavy sandstorms, which will be be hampering both sides.