[IvP] Still more...

[Keevan_Colton]

Thread three on this mess.

[Keevan_Colton]

Beirut don't realy have much to complain about regarding the current situation, hell the IDF don't even target the regular Lebanese forces keeping the door open for Beirut to fulfill it's duties and responsibilities as a soverign state.

Actually if you check, lebanese army facilities have been taken out by the israelis in airstrikes too.

[Broomstick]

The fact is every time Israel kills someones son, someones daughter, someones sister, someones wife, they are quite possibly creating a NEW terrorist, a new avenue of resources, contacts and expertise.

And when a suicide bomber blows up a restaurant or nightclub in Israel doesn't the same hold true?

You can't WIN a war this way.

True. An eye for and eye and a tooth for a tooth leaves everyone blind and toothless. And pissed as hell.

Just close your eyes and take a deep breath.

Think that one day your sitting at home, in the US or Australia or Europe or wherever.

Then there is a massive explosion and you go outside to find a close family member lying dying form shrapnal from some 'smart bomb', just in time to see the terrified pained filled expression as they pass away.

Oh. You mean like what happened in New York and Washington DC and Pennsylvania on September 11, 2001?

Or are the "big countries" supposed to ignore terrorism? I guess affulent people don't feel pain like poor people.

Give me a fucking break. Israel is using this (completly unacceptable, stupid and counter productive) kidnapping as an excuse to trash the infastructure of a country so they won't be a conventional military threat for a long time. And if Syria and anyone else give them the excuse to do the same, so much the better.

I think the term for Israel's current collective state of mind is "they've finally lost it and blown their stack". Objectively, the kidnappings that triggered this are relatively minor affairs but in the larger context they are key flashpoints. Rather like a lit cigarrette is a minor thing that usually causes no damage, but if you flick one into the right spot, in a forest full of dry wood and brush, you get a huge and uncontrollable wildfire.

Wonderful logic. Except that the long term resentment and terrorism threat makes any long term peace completly impossible.

Yes. Welcome to the 21st Century.

[CJvR]

Actually if you check, lebanese army facilities have been taken out by the israelis in airstrikes too.

I have heard the IDF saying that if the Lebanese air defences keep out of it they won't be bombed.

[Elfdart]

To add to what Broomstick wrote earlier, Hezbollah thought that because hostage swapping worked for them in the past, it would work this time. In doing so, they screwed the pooch balls deep because they haven't kept up with current events. Israel now has a freer hand to kick the shit out Arabs than ever before. The only country in the world with the clout to call them off is currently doing the exact same thing in Iraq. Not only that, but apparently Israel has been planning a cornholing of Lebanon for years and were spoiling for an excuse, which these assholes gave them.

[Mange]

Actually if you check, lebanese army facilities have been taken out by the israelis in airstrikes too.

I have heard the IDF saying that if the Lebanese air defences keep out of it they won't be bombed.

I haven't heard that. However, from what I gather, the Lebanese air defenses consists mostly of antiquated AA guns (and they are in their full right of using them against the Israeli).

[Kane Starkiller]

The fact is every time Israel kills someones son, someones daughter, someones sister, someones wife, they are quite possibly creating a NEW terrorist, a new avenue of resources, contacts and expertise.

And when a suicide bomber blows up a restaurant or nightclub in Israel doesn't the same hold true?

Yes it does. It's a closed circle out of which we cannot hope suicide bombers will lead the Middle East out. Therefore we call out to Israeli goverment which is supposed to be democratic and reasonable to lead by example.

[Chris OFarrell]

The fact is every time Israel kills someones son, someones daughter, someones sister, someones wife, they are quite possibly creating a NEW terrorist, a new avenue of resources, contacts and expertise.

And when a suicide bomber blows up a restaurant or nightclub in Israel doesn't the same hold true?

Yes, but given how muddy the situation is in Israel vis a vi the Palistinians, its far from black and white. And I'd rather keep the focus ON what is going on here and NOW, then start whining 'Well what about this or that or this!'.

You can't WIN a war this way.

True. An eye for and eye and a tooth for a tooth leaves everyone blind and toothless. And pissed as hell.

Just close your eyes and take a deep breath.

Think that one day your sitting at home, in the US or Australia or Europe or wherever.

Then there is a massive explosion and you go outside to find a close family member lying dying form shrapnal from some 'smart bomb', just in time to see the terrified pained filled expression as they pass away.

Oh. You mean like what happened in New York and Washington DC and Pennsylvania on September 11, 2001?

Or are the "big countries" supposed to ignore terrorism? I guess affulent people don't feel pain like poor people.

False Anology. The 9-11 attacks were conducted by Usma Bin Laden WITH THE BACKING, SUPPORT AND COMPLICITY of the Afghanistan Taliban regime, making them a legit target in terms of a reprisal. The US had every right to go in and take them down and they DID so (even if since then they have steadily screwed up the situation)

In the current conflict, the Lebanese Government has little to no control over the actions of Hezbollah and sure has hell have been TRYING to curb their attacks since they finally got Syria out of their country. Blasting Lebanon back to all hell in a general sense simply ENLARGES the problem, it doesn't shrink it in the slightest.

This also ignores the fact that the US went into Afghanistan with the objective of ousting the Taliban Regime and installing the Northen Allience as a new Government. The Israeli's stated objective of rescuing their two soldiers simply doesn't mesh with the all out and systematic attack across Lebanon.

Give me a fucking break. Israel is using this (completly unacceptable, stupid and counter productive) kidnapping as an excuse to trash the infastructure of a country so they won't be a conventional military threat for a long time. And if Syria and anyone else give them the excuse to do the same, so much the better.

I think the term for Israel's current collective state of mind is "they've finally lost it and blown their stack". Objectively, the kidnappings that triggered this are relatively minor affairs but in the larger context they are key flashpoints. Rather like a lit cigarrette is a minor thing that usually causes no damage, but if you flick one into the right spot, in a forest full of dry wood and brush, you get a huge and uncontrollable wildfire.

And its a nice poetic analogy, can we get back to reality?

Hezbollah are the problem. This is a fact. They are not a majority of the Lebanese population, in fact the fact that Lebanon got Israel to pull out six years ago, got Syria out of their country and have been making strides to marganailse Hezbollah shows that they are most clearly NOT directing any kind of national policty, despite their minority representaton in the Government.

So in short, Israel is going to punish the entire damn country for the actions of a group the Government has been trying to deal with, despite having limited assets and very limited control over that area of the country.

In the end, will this stop the Hezbollah threat? No, it will INCREASE it.
Will this stabalise the region? No it may well fucking get Syria involved back in Lebanon even more heavily. It might get Iran in there too, THAT would be useful I'm sure.

In the end, will this get the two soliders back?

I dobut it.

Wonderful logic. Except that the long term resentment and terrorism threat makes any long term peace completly impossible.

Yes. Welcome to the 21st Century.

Too bad the IDF is playing it like its the mid 20th....

[CaptJodan]

Yes, but given how muddy the situation is in Israel vis a vi the Palistinians, its far from black and white. And I'd rather keep the focus ON what is going on here and NOW, then start whining 'Well what about this or that or this!'.

This is like saying "let's ignore the part about US dominace and economic control over Japan that led to the depserate attacks on Pearl Harbor." It's convienent, but ultimatly distorts the facts of the situation. Ignoring what brought you to this point, the history behind it ignores the reasons why the conflict started in the first place, and certainly helps in no way in resolving it.

It's blatent finger pointing in an area of the world where no one is right and everyone is wrong. So right NOW, Isreal may be doing wrong. So what's your point? The entire area is filled with violence that is wrong. Do you honestly expect that if this insanity is stopped, that Islamic Fundies will wipe the slate clean and start anew in a new spirit of cooperation and love? Of course (I hope) you don't. They will take this incident as a reason to continue their assault on Isreal. Just as Isreal is taking what has happened to them in the past and in the present as justification for their actions. But because Isreal is the aggressor, you want to ignore why they feel they have to do it.

It's still a disproportional response, but the killing of an individual for a religious idea is already a disproportional response. Welcome to the Middle East.

[Surlethe]

Except it isnt the lebanese military and it isnt actually a fucking war. It's a terrorist milita inside lebanon...

Yet it's the infrastructure of a soverign nation they're destroying. It's the economic infrastructure they're taking apart bit by bit, it's an act of fucking war against the lebanese government rather than an action against hezbollah.

That's why I'm pointing out the nonexistent demarcation between Hezbollah combatants and Lebanese citizens in this situation is a big problem, because they use the same infrastructure. This makes the Lebanese economic infrastructure valid targets in the eyes of the Israeli military planners. It's like trying to remove a parasite which has attached to the spinal cord of a person with an axe. I'm not arguing in favor of it, and, as Iraq has shown, it's not going to be effective.

[Golan III]

Keevan - don't you get it - the roads and airports and ports are supply lines for hezbollah. By severing these ties they are cut off from resupply by Syria or Iran...the principal nations they receive weapons from. It's simple supply interdiction.

As far as evactuation from the airport via C-17, back in 2003 we had cratered Saddam Int'l Airport's runways...however C-130s and C-17s were still landing on the airfields, using taxiways. Since the parking aprons are right next to the taxiways (give Goggle Earth a spin and see for yourself), it was pretty tight clearances and was a pretty sporty undertaking. About as close to aircraft carrier ops as most Air Force people will ever get...

Anyway depending what's cratered and where, it's possible the airfield is still useable by the right airframe. Now it could be -17, -130, or even Courier or Twin Otter-sized, we'll see.

[Keevan_Colton]

Keevan - don't you get it - the roads and airports and ports are supply lines for hezbollah.

Everyone in Lebanon you mean. These are also the trade routes for fruit and vegetables, people and post, manufactured goods and materials.

Taking them out fucks over the people of lebanon and the government of the country more than it does Hezbollah. See again what I said about Britain with Ireland.

By severing these ties they are cut off from resupply by Syria or Iran...the principal nations they receive weapons from. It's simple supply interdiction.

And fucks over the economy for years to come. Or do you have a magic wand that will restore all the bridges taken out and rebuild all the highways?

Perhaps Israel will pay to put them back?

As far as evactuation from the airport via C-17, back in 2003 we had cratered Saddam Int'l Airport's runways...however C-130s and C-17s were still landing on the airfields, using taxiways. Since the parking aprons are right next to the taxiways (give Goggle Earth a spin and see for yourself), it was pretty tight clearances and was a pretty sporty undertaking. About as close to aircraft carrier ops as most Air Force people will ever get...

Anyway depending what's cratered and where, it's possible the airfield is still useable by the right airframe. Now it could be -17, -130, or even Courier or Twin Otter-sized, we'll see.

Yeah, still leaves the economy of the country fucked for years to come.

[Broomstick]

The fact is every time Israel kills someones son, someones daughter, someones sister, someones wife, they are quite possibly creating a NEW terrorist, a new avenue of resources, contacts and expertise.

And when a suicide bomber blows up a restaurant or nightclub in Israel doesn't the same hold true?

Yes, but given how muddy the situation is in Israel vis a vi the Palistinians, its far from black and white. And I'd rather keep the focus ON what is going on here and NOW, then start whining 'Well what about this or that or this!'.

I also wish that this could be distilled into just one or two simple points that stand out clearly from the background, but that's not reality. You get disproportiate responses because of the context in which these events are embedded.

Oh. You mean like what happened in New York and Washington DC and Pennsylvania on September 11, 2001?

Or are the "big countries" supposed to ignore terrorism? I guess affulent people don't feel pain like poor people.

False Anology. The 9-11 attacks were conducted by Usma Bin Laden WITH THE BACKING, SUPPORT AND COMPLICITY of the Afghanistan Taliban regime, making them a legit target in terms of a reprisal. The US had every right to go in and take them down and they DID so (even if since then they have steadily screwed up the situation)

No. Not false analogy.

Hezbollah has seats in the Lebanonese parliment. They de facto control South Lebanon. The seek greater power in politics, economics, and military matters. If the US had the right to go into Afghanistan after the Taliban then explain why Isreal has no right to go into Lebanon after Hezbollah?

In the current conflict, the Lebanese Government has little to no control over the actions of Hezbollah

Then they are no longer in control of Lebanon and it's questionable whether or not you can continue to call them a government.

and sure has hell have been TRYING to curb their attacks since they finally got Syria out of their country.

Well, then they didn't work hard enough or fast enough to solve the problem.

If the Lebanonese government had loudly condemned these activities by Hezbollah against Israel and/or actively assisted in bringing these criminals to justice that might have lead to a different outcome... but they didn't.

Blasting Lebanon back to all hell in a general sense simply ENLARGES the problem, it doesn't shrink it in the slightest.

I don't know about that - if you kill everyone in South Lebanon it will stop attacks from that area. NOT that I in any way approve of that course of action....

This also ignores the fact that the US went into Afghanistan with the objective of ousting the Taliban Regime and installing the Northen Allience as a new Government.

But did we ask the Afghanis if THEY wanted the "Northern Alliance" as their government?

The Israeli's stated objective of rescuing their two soldiers simply doesn't mesh with the all out and systematic attack across Lebanon.

No, you have that wrong. The Israelis are going into Lebanon to wipe out Hezbollah - they've been quite clear on that. And, oh yes, they'd like to have their soldiers back, too, please. But the impetus here is to eliminate Hezbollah as a threat once and for all.

Give me a fucking break. Israel is using this (completly unacceptable, stupid and counter productive) kidnapping as an excuse to trash the infastructure of a country so they won't be a conventional military threat for a long time. And if Syria and anyone else give them the excuse to do the same, so much the better.

I think the term for Israel's current collective state of mind is "they've finally lost it and blown their stack". Objectively, the kidnappings that triggered this are relatively minor affairs but in the larger context they are key flashpoints. Rather like a lit cigarrette is a minor thing that usually causes no damage, but if you flick one into the right spot, in a forest full of dry wood and brush, you get a huge and uncontrollable wildfire.

And its a nice poetic analogy, can we get back to reality?

I'm sorry - I'll try to keep it to vitriolic cussing and swearing in the future and avoid similes and metaphors.

Hezbollah are the problem. This is a fact. They are not a majority of the Lebanese population, in fact the fact that Lebanon got Israel to pull out six years ago, got Syria out of their country and have been making strides to marganailse Hezbollah shows that they are most clearly NOT directing any kind of national policty, despite their minority representaton in the Government.

But they ARE a part of the legitimate government and must enjoy significant support among the population to have those seats at the table.

If, say, Texas declared war on Mexico (not as outrageous as might be supposed - they actually did just that at one point in history) and started lobbing missiles over the border I would understand that the ENTIRE US would bear the consequences. I would be REALLY FUCKING UNHAPPY about the situation, but I also understand that pointing south and saying "But -- but -- but they're only a small part of the US!!!" is not going to cut the mustard. If the rest of the country didn't slam down on top of Texas and put a stop to it instantly Mexico would be justified declaring war on the US.

I think the ONLY response that Beruit could have made to defuse this situation would have been, when the kidnapping occured, IMMEDIATELY devoted significant resources to finding the culprits, the hostages, and bringing them all to the Israelis. Anything less is passive acceptance of the actions of Hezbollah.

So in short, Israel is going to punish the entire damn country for the actions of a group the Government has been trying to deal with, despite having limited assets and very limited control over that area of the country.

Yes. Precisely because the Lebanonese government has been ineffective in curbing kidnappings and attacks on Israelis

In the end, will this get the two soliders back?

No.

In fact, I'm certain they're dead by now, if they weren't already. I would be VERY happy to be wrong on that point, by the way. However, you seem to lack understanding that this has moved way beyond two kidnapped soldiers. You're focusing on a broken fingernail while neglecting a compound fracture of a femur and a dislocated hip.

Wonderful logic. Except that the long term resentment and terrorism threat makes any long term peace completly impossible.

Yes. NEWS FLASH: Life sucks! Later, after the break - water is wet!

[jegs2]

There will be peace in the Middle East once everyone there is dead. For thousands of years they've been hacking at and murdering each other. The only difference now is the means.

[Broomstick]

Keevan - don't you get it - the roads and airports and ports are supply lines for hezbollah.

Everyone in Lebanon you mean. These are also the trade routes for fruit and vegetables, people and post, manufactured goods and materials.

Taking them out fucks over the people of lebanon and the government of the country more than it does Hezbollah.

But you can't take out Hezbollah without causing that damage. It would be like trying to cut mold out of a piece of cheese and expecting to have something afterwards that still looks like the original hunk.

That's why terrorists/whatever hiding amongst civilians is so damn insidious -- when the shit hits the fan the civilians get killed along with the bad guys.

By severing these ties they are cut off from resupply by Syria or Iran...the principal nations they receive weapons from. It's simple supply interdiction.

And fucks over the economy for years to come. Or do you have a magic wand that will restore all the bridges taken out and rebuild all the highways?

Perhaps Israel will pay to put them back?

You know, that's a very interesting question.

One reason the US has cordial relations with Japan these days is that after when bombed the shit out of them in WWII we actually helped rebuild their country - we provided medical care to their injured (including flying bomb victims all the way to the US for treatment the destroyed Japanese infrastructure couldn't handle), rebuilt their roads, cities, and industries... Will Israel do the same for Lebanon?

In Afganistan and Iraq the US is also trying to rebuild the countries. The success is mixed - and it doesn't help a fucking thing when internal assholes blow up the repairs - but US does have a track record of trying to mitigate and repair the damage to the civilian side of things once the guns fall silent.

(In fact, the US experience in rebuilding shit was one of several motivations for improving targeting of munitions - much easier to clean up later if you limit the damage to just what's necessary to get the job done and no more.)

What's Israel's track record?

Yeah, still leaves the economy of the country fucked for years to come.

Problem is, this is the Middle East. If it goes on long enough, everyone's economy is fucked for years to come.

I have no doubt that there are many high-level hush-hush discussions going on between the big players in the world arena. Obviously, if it doesn't simmer down in a couple days Something Must Be Done - the question is what?

[Mange]

But they ARE a part of the legitimate government and must enjoy significant support among the population to have those seats at the table.

It's important not to exaggerate the support that Hezbollah has in Lebanon. If anything, this sort of idiotic actions does nothing but increase support for radical organizations.

I think the ONLY response that Beruit could have made to defuse this situation would have been, when the kidnapping occured, IMMEDIATELY devoted significant resources to finding the culprits, the hostages, and bringing them all to the Israelis. Anything less is passive acceptance of the actions of Hezbollah.

And do you have any suggestion as to how the Lebanese government would've pulled that off? Hezbollah are very well armed and how would the fragile Lebanese government have pulled that off? You are trying to make this much more simpler than what it really is.

[Keevan_Colton]

What's Israel's track record?

In every instance I've seen they dont pay for shit they've broken.

[Broomstick]

I think the ONLY response that Beruit could have made to defuse this situation would have been, when the kidnapping occured, IMMEDIATELY devoted significant resources to finding the culprits, the hostages, and bringing them all to the Israelis. Anything less is passive acceptance of the actions of Hezbollah.

And do you have any suggestion as to how the Lebanese government would've pulled that off? Hezbollah are very well armed and how would the fragile Lebanese government have pulled that off?

Again - if they don't have control over a substantial part of the country I have to question just who's in charge here, and whether or not the Lebanese government is, in fact, a government or just a pawn of Hezbollah. Are you saying the terrorist thugs have taken control of Lebanon just as the Taliban took control of Afghanistan? If Hezbollah outguns the "legitimate" government it sure sounds like it.

[CJvR]

The Beirut regime isn't a total eunuck. The Hizbos were only one faction during the long civil war so establishing a reasonably clear control over the rest of the place should be within the goverment's grasp. If the regime isn't powerful enough to actively go into Hizbostan then it should at least be able to isolate those parts of the country from the rest eliminating the need for IDF bombing missions there. How difficult is it to throw up a road block and search for missiles?Once the Lebanese cut a supply road the IDF won't have to bomb it anymore.

The problem with that is that it will quite likely restart the civil war. The alternative of doing nothing is that the IDF will do it for them and in a much messier manner. I do feel some sympathy for the poor fellows in Beirut, their options are all quite depressing. Failing to maintain control over your soverign territory is one of the biggest faliures possible for a nation, one that brings it's very existance into dispute.

Support the Hizbos, reignite the civil war, dissolve the state of Lebanon or do nothing and simply continue to bend over and take it from the IDF.

[Broomstick]

What's Israel's track record?

In every instance I've seen they dont pay for shit they've broken.

Well, maybe in exchange for a cease-fire they should agree to fix some roads and bridges, hmm?

[Darth Mortis]

What's Israel's track record?

In every instance I've seen they dont pay for shit they've broken.

Can you provide a link on this?

[Keevan_Colton]

What's Israel's track record?

In every instance I've seen they dont pay for shit they've broken.

Can you provide a link on this?

Care to show evidence of them paying for homes destroyed or infrastructure taken out in lebanon or gaza?

[SirNitram]

What's Israel's track record?

In every instance I've seen they dont pay for shit they've broken.

Can you provide a link on this?

Have you thought that one through? How does one link to an event that doesn't occour, IE, the payment of repairs?

[Broomstick]

And from one who wishes to stir the pot further....

From Al-Jazeera

The leader of the Lebanese movement Hezbollah has warned that the current confrontation with Israel was only the beginning.

"We will continue. We still have a lot more and we are just at the beginning," Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah said on Sunday in a taped address on Al-Manar television.

"We promise them surprises in (any) confrontation," he said a few hours after a Hezbollah rocket killed eight people in the northern Israeli city of Haifa.

"We will use all means. As long as the enemy has no limits, we will have no limits."

I don't think this guy really understands war without limits. Excuse me, he does realize Israel is supposed to have a nuke, right? Can he match that? No? Then in a true war with no limits he's fucked. He's presuming the other side will follow rules. That doesn't happen in the kind of confrontation he's proposing.

'Fighting for Muslims'
Nasrallah said his fighters are "longing" to fight Israeli forces in any ground invasion

I don't view this as a good sign.

as he urged Arabs and Muslims worldwide to support Hezbollah, saying it is fighting Israel on their behalf.

Who elected this asshole king?

"The peoples of the Arab and Islamic world have a historic opportunity to score a defeat against the Zionist enemy ... We are providing the example," he said.

Oh, yes - he's doing a fine job of cowing the Israelis. That's why Beruit is turning into rubble and Lebanon falling into ruin. That's victory? Right now it looks to me like the Arabs are on the losing side in this battle.

It was Nasrallah's first television appearance since Israeli air strikes destroyed his headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs on Saturday.

Yes, getting your headquarters destroyed is yet another sign of victory.

The five-day old fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has killed at least 120 Lebanese civilians and has dealt a heavy blow to Lebanon's infrastructure, especially in the south.

But Nasrallah sought to boost the morale of his supporters.

"We are still in our full strength and power. We choose the time and place (for the battle). We still manage our affairs in an accurate manner," he said.

Right, because you've abadoned the people you once hid among, leaving them to die, and you've bugged out to cause trouble elsewhere. This is another Bahgdad Bob, but in this case "Bob" is commanding airstrikes.

Al-Jazeera also had a decent article on how world opinion is divided over this crisis, but when I tried to link to it I got a message their servers were overloaded. Probably not surprising. They do give a different slant than CNN and BBC (no surprise) but not as one-sided as you might suppose.

[Darth Mortis]

In every instance I've seen they dont pay for shit they've broken.

Can you provide a link on this?

Have you thought that one through? How does one link to an event that doesn't occour, IE, the payment of repairs?

Good point, however, I'm sure someone has documented Israels disgressions against the world in terms of money. Also, Keevan just belted off an answer that I personally can't validate, and I don't think he can, so I wanted some proof to educate myself or to prove he just shouting from the rooftops.