Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

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Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-05-15 03:26am

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics ... index.html
Washington (CNN)Senior Iranian officials warned the US against conflict Tuesday, as Russia's foreign minister spoke of a "downward spiral" and the US narrative of a deepening threat from Iran was questioned and contradicted.

Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, said Tehran doesn't want a war that would devastate the region. They denied Iranian involvement in attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf and on a Saudi oil station, raising the possibility of sabotage. And they charged that Washington was unnecessarily escalating tensions with Tehran.

Tehran's full court press on the public followed a New York Times report that National Security Adviser John Bolton ordered updates to a military plan that outlines sending up to 120,000 troops to the Middle East should Iran attack US forces or escalate its nuclear activities.

One US official told CNN that the meeting between members of Trump's national security team to discuss military options "was driven by an interest in being ready for anything."

The options reviewed include one plan to send more than 100,000 US forces to the Middle East to take military action to delay Iran's nuclear program if it becomes a serious threat, the official said.

These reports follow several weeks of intensifying US sanctions and restrictions against Iran, as well as warnings from Washington about a heightened Iranian threat to US troops in the region that, according to Bolton, required the swift deployment of a Navy strike group and bomber to the Persian Gulf.

But questions about that deployment, the characterization of the threat against US troops and the tanker attacks have raised concerns that the Trump administration may be angling for a clash with Tehran.

"I think what we're seeing now is our own administration goading Iran into taking ill-advised and tremendously foolish actions that would provide them with justification to ... use force against the Iranian regime," said Ned Price, a former intelligence officer now with the group National Security Action.

Tom Collina, director of policy at the Ploughshares Fund, which works to end the spread and use of nuclear weapons, pointed to Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, both of whom have previously advocated for regime change in Iran, as prime drivers of the dynamic.

"I see all the pieces being put on the table, by John Bolton primarily, setting up a situation where the United States gets drawn into war with Iran in a way that the Trump administration can deny blame," Collina said.

Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council, reacted to reports about the 120,000 troops by saying, "Bolton is methodically setting the stage for war with Iran -- forcing Iran into a corner and then readying war plans for when Iran takes the bait."

Bolton and the National Security Council did not respond to requests for comment, but administration officials have said that most instability and unrest in the Middle East can be traced back to Iran and that they intend to make Tehran changes its ways.
Speaking in Moscow on Tuesday, Pompeo said that "we fundamentally do not seek a war with Iran."

Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of Foundation for Democracies who advises the administration and Congress on Iran policy, said there's a strategy at work with the release of news about the 120,000 troops.

"I imagine the administration is providing this info publicly to frighten the regime in Iran and also as part of responsible contingency planning," Dubowitz said. "Part of the psychological operations being employed to deter further regime escalation."

Collina said news of the military's plans, the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, its ongoing pressure campaign to squeeze Iran economically, the US deployment to the Persian Gulf and the tanker attacks, "adds up to a very tense escalated situation where it could easily spin out of control."

Many critics see parallels in the current situation to the Gulf of Tonkin incident, which essentially launched the US into the Vietnam War. "You have opposing forces too close together, something happens, one side gets blamed and before you know it, you've got an international incident," Collina said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking alongside Pompeo, expressed concern about the situation, describing it as a "downward spiral." He said Russia needs to consult with Europe and China "to find a way out of this crisis because the situation is getting worse and worse."

Iranian leaders appeared to feel some pressure, as they issued a series of public statements cautioning against conflict.

Khamenei told high ranking officials and lawmakers on Tuesday that "we don't seek a war nor do they." Khamenei reportedly said of the US that "they know a war wouldn't be beneficial for them."

Iran's diplomats made a similar case outside the country.

In London Tuesday, Iran's ambassador to the UK, Hamid Baeidinejad, told journalists that "if the US wants to draw Iran into a military conflict, they should be aware that this will be devastating, not just for the US, but also for the whole [Persian Gulf] region."

In the US, Iran's ambassador to the UN, Majid Takht Ravanchi, raised the specter of officials in Washington pushing for war.
Iran is "not in the business of trying to create conflict in our neighborhood," Ravanchi told CNN's "New Day," "because nobody is going to have benefit from such a conflict in our region except for a few ... some people in Washington and some countries in our neighborhood."

Asked about the heightened tensions during a trip to India, Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif pointed to Washington as well. "Well unfortunately, the United States has been escalating the situation unnecessarily," Zarif said. "We do not seek escalation, but we have always defended ourselves."

Advocates for a tough approach to Iran see the recent US moves as a course correction, particularly the idea of an increased troop presence and the strike group deployment.

"An adequate force posture can actually dampen Iranian escalation prospects," said Behnam Ben Talebu, a senior fellow at the FDD. "Weakness and irresolution can lead to more Iranian testing and meddling, not less."

Ben Talebu said the strike group's deployment compliments the administration's maximum pressure campaign and makes up "for gaps in its regional force posture."

But others, like Price the former intelligence officer, are wary. Bolton and Pompeo's history of pushing for regime change in Iran "has given us nothing but good reason to be skeptical," Price said.

Questions continue to mount. While Bolton characterized the deployment of the Navy strike group and bomber as a response to Iranian threats against US personnel in Iraq and Syria, US allies and Pompeo said the movements had been planned for some time.

On Tuesday, the deputy commander of the US-led military coalition against ISIS contradicted US claims that Iran was posing a heightened level of threat. "There has been no increased threat from Iranian backed forces in Iraq or Syria," UK Major General Chris Ghika told Pentagon reporters, saying threats to US and coalition forces remain steady.

His comments prompted a response from Capt. Bill Urban, lead spokesman US Central Command, who didn't address whether the threat level had changed, but said Ghika's comments "run counter to the identified credible threats available to intelligence from US and allies regarding Iranian backed forces in the region."

Questions also remain about the attack on the four tankers in the Persian Gulf, two belonging to Saudi Arabia, one to the United Arab Emirates and one to Norway.

A US official told CNN that Washington has decided not to publicly voice its suspicions that Iran was behind the attack in part because of the lack of detail from the UAE and Saudi Arabia about how the ships were damaged, apart from a vague claim of sabotage.

Senior diplomatic sources told CNN there's little information about the attack. "We don't know who did it -- although the US clearly suspects Iran," one diplomat said.

Baeidinejad, Iran's ambassador to the UK, denied any Iranian involvement in the attack, saying the incident "is very suspicious to us." He also denied Iran was behind the Tuesday attack on an oil pumping station in Saudi Arabia.

Behnam of the FDD said the tanker attack had all the hallmarks of an Iranian operation.

"A highly deniable attack, such as the one on the hull of the tankers, would be entirely consistent with the past four decades of Iranian security strategy, which emphasizes increasing the challenges of attribution, overcoming conventional military weaknesses, and decreasing the prospects of escalation against the Iranian homeland for regime meddling," he said.

CNN's Barbara Starr, Michelle Kosinski, Devan Cole, Hamdi Alkhshali, Nada Altaher and Zachary Cohen contributed to this report
Iran would make Iraq look like a mild disturbance in comparison. But it looks like Trump is going to do it, on possibly even more flimsy grounds than Iraq 2003.

Probably he thinks being a wartime President will ensure reelection and keep his ass out of prison. This is a man who would burn the world if he thought it would advance his self-interest.

But remember, Hillary's an imperialist! At least Trump will keep us out of foreign wars!
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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-05-15 03:30am

You want a reason for impeachment? This is fucking it. We cannot wait a year and a half to get rid of this fucker, because by then he will likely have embroiled us in a war that may last decades, and have consequences lasting centuries (if it doesn't escalate into World War III).

Even if the Senate acquits, impeachment will tie up a lot of his attention, resources, and political capital, and make it harder for him to carry out other parts of his agenda.
"Well, Grant, we've had the devil's own day, haven't we?"

"Yes. Lick 'em tomorrow though."

-Generals Sherman and Grant, the Battle of Shiloh.


"They are nearer to me than the other side, in thought and sentiment, though bitterly hostile personally. They are utterly lawless - the unhandiest devils in the world to deal with - but after all their faces are set Zion-wards."- Lincoln on radical Abolitionists.


"You need to believe in things that aren't true. How else can they become?"-Terry Pratchett's DEATH.


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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by Zaune » 2019-05-16 11:52am

Well, at least he's doing something to fulfil his campaign promises to create employment at long last.
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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-05-16 06:11pm

Yeah, I guess a draft technically counts as employment.
"Well, Grant, we've had the devil's own day, haven't we?"

"Yes. Lick 'em tomorrow though."

-Generals Sherman and Grant, the Battle of Shiloh.


"They are nearer to me than the other side, in thought and sentiment, though bitterly hostile personally. They are utterly lawless - the unhandiest devils in the world to deal with - but after all their faces are set Zion-wards."- Lincoln on radical Abolitionists.


"You need to believe in things that aren't true. How else can they become?"-Terry Pratchett's DEATH.


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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by Gandalf » 2019-05-16 07:45pm

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2019-05-16 06:11pm
Yeah, I guess a draft technically counts as employment.
Conflicts aren't about the soldiers or the occupied peoples. They're about the (no-bid) contracts for reconstruction, private security, and the like. Exploiting these lands for political and fiscal gain takes a lot of manpower.
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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-05-16 07:47pm

Well, Trump is real cozy with Eric Prince (who ran Blackwater), so I'm sure that factors into it too.

But it seems to be Bolton and Pompeo (and Netanyahu, probably) who are really pushing this.
"Well, Grant, we've had the devil's own day, haven't we?"

"Yes. Lick 'em tomorrow though."

-Generals Sherman and Grant, the Battle of Shiloh.


"They are nearer to me than the other side, in thought and sentiment, though bitterly hostile personally. They are utterly lawless - the unhandiest devils in the world to deal with - but after all their faces are set Zion-wards."- Lincoln on radical Abolitionists.


"You need to believe in things that aren't true. How else can they become?"-Terry Pratchett's DEATH.


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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by Gandalf » 2019-05-16 07:58pm

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2019-05-16 07:47pm
Well, Trump is real cozy with Eric Prince (who ran Blackwater), so I'm sure that factors into it too.

But it seems to be Bolton and Pompeo (and Netanyahu, probably) who are really pushing this.
Neocons and capitalists make for excellent teammates.
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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by mr friendly guy » 2019-05-17 11:52am


Polly Boiko on the tensions in the ME using Game of Thrones metaphors. Years from now historians who don't know anything about GoT would watch this and go WTF?
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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by GrosseAdmiralFox » 2019-05-17 09:48pm

Yeah, no. People forget that Trump has been going for 'easy' victories, and a war with Iran isn't going to be an easy victory in the slightest.

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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-05-17 11:52pm

GrosseAdmiralFox wrote:
2019-05-17 09:48pm
Yeah, no. People forget that Trump has been going for 'easy' victories, and a war with Iran isn't going to be an easy victory in the slightest.
The problem is, does he realize that?
"Well, Grant, we've had the devil's own day, haven't we?"

"Yes. Lick 'em tomorrow though."

-Generals Sherman and Grant, the Battle of Shiloh.


"They are nearer to me than the other side, in thought and sentiment, though bitterly hostile personally. They are utterly lawless - the unhandiest devils in the world to deal with - but after all their faces are set Zion-wards."- Lincoln on radical Abolitionists.


"You need to believe in things that aren't true. How else can they become?"-Terry Pratchett's DEATH.


I am a dual citizen of the US and Canada.

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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by mr friendly guy » 2019-05-18 01:50am

Trump thought building that wall and making Mexico pay for it was easy. They would be glad to pay for it. Didn't work out. Then it would be the US taxpayer would pay for it. Didn't work out either.

He also thought trade wars are easy to win. Prior to his latest escalation, he was losing by his own metrics ie the trade deficit with China widened.

I don't think he can make accurate assessments, if he ever did. I mean this is the guy who lost billions of dollars in the boom time of the 80s.
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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by Ralin » 2019-05-18 03:50am

And pretty much everything Trump's said does seem to indicate that he believes that the American military is literally unbeatable and will make decisions on that basis.

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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by Zaune » 2019-05-18 10:29am

Ralin wrote:
2019-05-18 03:50am
And pretty much everything Trump's said does seem to indicate that he believes that the American military is literally unbeatable and will make decisions on that basis.
Unfortunately, that might not be far off true if you stretch your definition of "winning" far enough. The only countries the US couldn't eventually crush by sheer weight of numbers and firepower, even at such a hideous price in blood and treasure that "pyrrhic victory" is putting it mildly, are those capable of forcing Washington to back down with the threat of nuclear strikes against US domestic targets.

As a result, if Trump actually goes ahead with this harebrained scheme then the Non-Proliferation Treaty is headed straight for the trash. Iran voluntarily (if reluctantly) ceased work on acquiring a nuclear deterrent in return for some concessions towards detente with the United States; to go back on that now sends a clear message that anyone without a nuclear deterrent is considered fair game.
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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-05-19 03:57am

IIRC, scraping the treaties against nuclear proliferation is a big goal of Russia's, as well. Just saying.
"Well, Grant, we've had the devil's own day, haven't we?"

"Yes. Lick 'em tomorrow though."

-Generals Sherman and Grant, the Battle of Shiloh.


"They are nearer to me than the other side, in thought and sentiment, though bitterly hostile personally. They are utterly lawless - the unhandiest devils in the world to deal with - but after all their faces are set Zion-wards."- Lincoln on radical Abolitionists.


"You need to believe in things that aren't true. How else can they become?"-Terry Pratchett's DEATH.


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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by mr friendly guy » 2019-05-19 04:51am

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2019-05-19 03:57am
IIRC, scraping the treaties against nuclear proliferation is a big goal of Russia's, as well. Just saying.
Er why? Do nuclear powers like arming non nuclear powers with nukes, or helping them achieve that? Its like selling weapons to terrorist groups as long as they attack your rival. There is a chance as powers like the US, Israel * find out, they come to bite you. And with nukes, they kind of bite much harder than conventional weapons.
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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by GrosseAdmiralFox » 2019-05-20 02:40am

mr friendly guy wrote:
2019-05-19 04:51am
Er why? Do nuclear powers like arming non nuclear powers with nukes, or helping them achieve that? Its like selling weapons to terrorist groups as long as they attack your rival. There is a chance as powers like the US, Israel * find out, they come to bite you. And with nukes, they kind of bite much harder than conventional weapons.
Given that it is said that Putin's conception of reality has been skewing to fantasy as of late... well... let's just say it's either that Putin has started to go senile or he's just that spiteful.
The Romulan Republic wrote:
2019-05-17 11:52pm
The problem is, does he realize that?
I give it a 50/50 at worst right now. Not to mention that the military might just outright ignore any order to attack Iran at this point given how he keeps screwing them over...

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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by Lord Revan » 2019-05-20 08:52am

GrosseAdmiralFox wrote:
2019-05-20 02:40am
mr friendly guy wrote:
2019-05-19 04:51am
Er why? Do nuclear powers like arming non nuclear powers with nukes, or helping them achieve that? Its like selling weapons to terrorist groups as long as they attack your rival. There is a chance as powers like the US, Israel * find out, they come to bite you. And with nukes, they kind of bite much harder than conventional weapons.
Given that it is said that Putin's conception of reality has been skewing to fantasy as of late... well... let's just say it's either that Putin has started to go senile or he's just that spiteful.
Isn't Putin a bit young to go senile? It could be that Putin got reminded that he's only a lifelong dictator and he should push for the agenda to make Russia great again or they ones keeping him in power will find another who will.
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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by GrosseAdmiralFox » 2019-05-20 07:07pm

Lord Revan wrote:
2019-05-20 08:52am
Isn't Putin a bit young to go senile? It could be that Putin got reminded that he's only a lifelong dictator and he should push for the agenda to make Russia great again or they ones keeping him in power will find another who will.
Not exactly, given that from what I've heard that Putin go to where he is not only because he found the right backers but he has the dirt on everyone he needs to control the government. A non-patriotic Edgar J. Hoover mixed with Stalin as it were. So, unless he is really down the route of senility, he probably has his backers keeping him backed no matter what.

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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by Gandalf » 2019-05-20 10:58pm

GrosseAdmiralFox wrote:
2019-05-20 02:40am
Not to mention that the military might just outright ignore any order to attack Iran at this point given how he keeps screwing them over...
Why would they do such a thing?
"Oh no, oh yeah, tell me how can it be so fair
That we dying younger hiding from the police man over there
Just for breathing in the air they wanna leave me in the chair
Electric shocking body rocking beat streeting me to death"

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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by Ralin » 2019-05-20 11:55pm

Gandalf wrote:
2019-05-20 10:58pm
Why would they do such a thing?
Desire not to lose a war.

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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by Gandalf » 2019-05-21 12:14am

Ralin wrote:
2019-05-20 11:55pm
Gandalf wrote:
2019-05-20 10:58pm
Why would they do such a thing?
Desire not to lose a war.
Has that ever stopped them before?
"Oh no, oh yeah, tell me how can it be so fair
That we dying younger hiding from the police man over there
Just for breathing in the air they wanna leave me in the chair
Electric shocking body rocking beat streeting me to death"

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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by Ralin » 2019-05-21 12:28am

Gandalf wrote:
2019-05-21 12:14am
Ralin wrote:
2019-05-20 11:55pm
Gandalf wrote:
2019-05-20 10:58pm
Why would they do such a thing?
Desire not to lose a war.
Has that ever stopped them before?
Never really had a president like Trump. As you well know. We know his underlings have stalled out a number of things he wanted to on the grounds that they were exceptionally stupid, crazy or illegal. And invading a country involves a whole lot more prep work then firing some guy.

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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by Zaune » 2019-05-21 01:17am

mr friendly guy wrote:
2019-05-19 04:51am
Er why? Do nuclear powers like arming non nuclear powers with nukes, or helping them achieve that? Its like selling weapons to terrorist groups as long as they attack your rival. There is a chance as powers like the US, Israel * find out, they come to bite you. And with nukes, they kind of bite much harder than conventional weapons.
On the other hand, if Saddam Hussein had possessed a few nukes to threaten Bush with, I doubt the Middle East or the US would currently be in as much of a mess as it's been since 2003.
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Re: Trump prepares for invasion of Iran.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-05-21 03:43am

Zaune wrote:
2019-05-21 01:17am
mr friendly guy wrote:
2019-05-19 04:51am
Er why? Do nuclear powers like arming non nuclear powers with nukes, or helping them achieve that? Its like selling weapons to terrorist groups as long as they attack your rival. There is a chance as powers like the US, Israel * find out, they come to bite you. And with nukes, they kind of bite much harder than conventional weapons.
On the other hand, if Saddam Hussein had possessed a few nukes to threaten Bush with, I doubt the Middle East or the US would currently be in as much of a mess as it's been since 2003.
Trump is one of the few people nuts enough he might start a fight with a nuclear power. MAD is, ironically, meant for dealing with the rational.
"Well, Grant, we've had the devil's own day, haven't we?"

"Yes. Lick 'em tomorrow though."

-Generals Sherman and Grant, the Battle of Shiloh.


"They are nearer to me than the other side, in thought and sentiment, though bitterly hostile personally. They are utterly lawless - the unhandiest devils in the world to deal with - but after all their faces are set Zion-wards."- Lincoln on radical Abolitionists.


"You need to believe in things that aren't true. How else can they become?"-Terry Pratchett's DEATH.


I am a dual citizen of the US and Canada.

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