Brexit and General UK politics thread

[The Jester]

It is almost certain that the UK is about to crash out. While there is sufficient time in theory to organise a people's vote, in practice, legislative processes are not fast enough to push it through. Especially when you have madmen in the processes perfectly willing to derail it however possible.

If you're in the UK, I strongly recommend bracing for impact or bailing right now.

[Zaune]

If you're in the UK, I strongly recommend bracing for impact or bailing right now.

I started doing that two years ago. Everyone thought I was a paranoid nut at the time.

I kind of wish they still did.

[Captain Seafort]

I kind of wish they still did.

You're a paranoid nut.

Happy?

[The Romulan Republic]

I increasingly think that for the Neo-Fascists, collapse is the point. Bring ruin to the UK, blame it on foreigners and leftists, then use the crisis to justify fascist strongman government.

Chaos is a ladder.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

I increasingly think that for the Neo-Fascists, collapse is the point. Bring ruin to the UK, blame it on foreigners and leftists, then use the crisis to justify fascist strongman government.

Chaos is a ladder.

Ironic if true, for the fools currently in charge (and others like them) have spent decades running Britain into the ground; undermining and weakening the very institutions and tools a fascist government would need to maintain effective control. If they ruin Britain in order to conquer it, Britain is staying ruined.

[The Jester]

I started doing that two years ago. Everyone thought I was a paranoid nut at the time.

I kind of wish they still did.

Stay safe, Zaune.

I increasingly think that for the Neo-Fascists, collapse is the point. Bring ruin to the UK, blame it on foreigners and leftists, then use the crisis to justify fascist strongman government.

Chaos is a ladder.

I don't think so. While I frequently see claims that the EU is punishing the UK and that May was the wrong leader, I find it difficult to believe that those that are cheerleading specifically for incoming catastrophe can somehow fob it off on someone else when it doesn't work out as claimed.

[Tribble]

I started doing that two years ago. Everyone thought I was a paranoid nut at the time.

I kind of wish they still did.

Stay safe, Zaune.

I increasingly think that for the Neo-Fascists, collapse is the point. Bring ruin to the UK, blame it on foreigners and leftists, then use the crisis to justify fascist strongman government.

Chaos is a ladder.

I don't think so. While I frequently see claims that the EU is punishing the UK and that May was the wrong leader, I find it difficult to believe that those that are cheerleading specifically for incoming catastrophe can somehow fob it off on someone else when it doesn't work out as claimed.

IMO the far-right will certainly blame the EU, foreigners and left-wingers for their own screwups: the real question is if a significant chunk of the electorate will go along with them.

[The Jester]

Perhaps in my immense cynicism, I'm still too optimistic. But even though I agree they will attempt to scapegoat others, it's difficult to imagine an effective way to blame actual border friction from "taking control of the borders" as being someone else's fault. Or the US objecting to the UK's trade schedule as being the work of evil lefties.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Perhaps in my immense cynicism, I'm still too optimistic. But even though I agree they will attempt to scapegoat others, it's difficult to imagine an effective way to blame actual border friction from "taking control of the borders" as being someone else's fault. Or the US objecting to the UK's trade schedule as being the work of evil lefties.

They'll do it because they have no choice. They have to blame someone else, because the alternative is to accept that they were conned. Worse, it means facing the possibility that the Brexiter promises will never be fulfilled, and that their dreams will never come true. That's a lot for anyone to accept, and people will all too easily latch onto a more pleasing or seemingly logical alternative. It's one of the underlying psychological causes of conspiracy theory. All too many people would rather have a world run by some shadowy cabal that controls everything, because at least that way the world makes sense, and holds out the prospect - however slim - that the world can be removed by getting rid of said cabal. The alternative - that life is a brownian motion of a million tiny decisions, causes, and effects - is too scary and pyschologically unsettling to be borne.

And there lies the real danger lies. They will cling to their illusion - while a part of them knows all the while that it is wrong, or that clinging to it is futile - because the alternative is feeling like a fool for believing it, and enduring anything from sorrow to utter despair in the face of lost hopes. The resulting cognitive dissionance will make them even angrier, even more unsettled, and even more likely to kick off.

That said, there's no guarantee that the whole country, or even a majority, will unite behind it. The alt-right is trying to establish unity on the basis of 'we are white and not Muslims' but not all white people will accept it. This is not because they are somehow fundamentally good people who regard such behaviour as morally wrong - though some are. The real reason Britain rejected the BUF, and will likely reject the alt-right, is because as far as the rest of society is concerned, these people are freaks. They are just too extreme and unpleasant in their behaviour, and rub people up the wrong way.

[madd0ct0r]

Options

1) vote pases. We exit on may's terms
2) vote fails. Nothing else happens we crash out
3) vote fails. May goes back to eu. They give extension for more negotiations. Extension period renews indefinitely.
4) vote fails. Brinkmanship in commons and fear of crashing out leads to a second vote which passes.
5) vote fails. Second refendum called instead of general election.
6) vote fails. Impasse in government unable to agree to majority on any option. General election called. Eu may give us an extra month.

[The Jester]

That said, there's no guarantee that the whole country, or even a majority, will unite behind it. The alt-right is trying to establish unity on the basis of 'we are white and not Muslims' but not all white people will accept it.

Like I said, I certainly don't disagree that there will be attempts at scapegoating. What I'm saying is that the cause and effect in this case is going to be too bloody obvious that I don't see how alternative beliefs could become widespread.

Options

1) vote pases. We exit on may's terms

Except it's not really an exit. This is a delay of disaster. You still need to renegotiate approximately 750 separate treaties in the period of 20 months. Given how successfully present negotiations have proceeded, you may be lucky to get 2.

2) vote fails. Nothing else happens we crash out

All assessments of likely votes within the House of Commons indicate that this is the most probable event by a substantial margin.

3) vote fails. May goes back to eu. They give extension for more negotiations. Extension period renews indefinitely.

Extremely unlikely. EU are pretty adamant on this being the deal. They also have to adhere to existing treaties with other third parties. If the UK doesn't accept this, there isn't anything more to negotiate.

4) vote fails. Brinkmanship in commons and fear of crashing out leads to a second vote which passes.

Very unlikely given the UK's political climate. And still retains all the problems previously mentioned if it were to pass.

5) vote fails. Second refendum called instead of general election.

Very unlikely. While sufficient time exists in theory, there's no precedent for a referendum being organised quickly enough that it could fit within the remaining timeframe. That said, this would be the one case where the EU would conceivably grant an extension.

6) vote fails. Impasse in government unable to agree to majority on any option. General election called. Eu may give us an extra month.

Extremely unlikely (the extension part). The EU are adamant that this is the deal.

[madd0ct0r]

Jester. Normally at this point i offer a real £5 bet to see how strongly someone really believes their own rhetoric.

But ive grown wiser over the years and just checked a few bookies. Nothing has great odds, although 1) and 4) are favourites.

[The Jester]

Okay. So I've checked my accounts and my business derived about 5% of its revenue from the UK for 2018. Believe me when I tell you that this is not something about which I want to be correct because I will be negatively impacted by the consequences. And yes, an extension would certainly be a lot better for me than the current trajectory.

That said, I have to make real decisions and account for what is likely and what that means. I hope you do the same, whatever your assessment may be. And please stay safe.

[Crazedwraith]

Farage Has Quit UKIP

Just the highlight:

Nigel Farage has quit UKIP, saying the party's leader Gerard Batten seems to be obsessed with Islam and ex-English Defence League leader Tommy Robinson.

[mr friendly guy]

Isn't Brexit a manifestation of the antiglobalisation populism that is spreading throughout the world? Aren't the antiglobalisation forces obsessed with Islam as a rule? Don't they spin the conspiracy theory that the globalist want migration from third world nations because of various reasons, depending on your conspiracy theory to have a low wage workforce, have people who will vote for the globalist as they give them welfare, or to cause wait for it... white genocide. Where white genocide is defined as white people breeding with non white people.

So Farage might having such a view seems like an anomaly to me.

[Bernkastel]

Isn't Brexit a manifestation of the antiglobalisation populism that is spreading throughout the world? Aren't the antiglobalisation forces obsessed with Islam as a rule? Don't they spin the conspiracy theory that the globalist want migration from third world nations because of various reasons, depending on your conspiracy theory to have a low wage workforce, have people who will vote for the globalist as they give them welfare, or to cause wait for it... white genocide. Where white genocide is defined as white people breeding with non white people.

So Farage might having such a view seems like an anomaly to me.

As pointed out by Captain seafort on the previous page, Farage always aimed to make UKIP seem like a reasonable group and keep some distance between UKIP and the far right. The sort of stuff current UKIP is doing goes against that "we're just reasonable people standing up for the common man" that Farage always wanted.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

So he's quit again? Is that the second or third time?

[Crazedwraith]

He's previously quit the leadership but not the party as whole iirc.

[SpottedKitty]

As pointed out by Captain seafort on the previous page, Farage always aimed to make UKIP seem like a reasonable group and keep some distance between UKIP and the far right.

<shrug> Couldn't prove that by me — through all the years I've been watching them, usually out of morbid curiosity, I always considered UKIP to be "far right". And as for "reasonable"...

[Bernkastel]

I never said they were actually reasonable. But they clearly aimed to be a group that a regular right-winger could join while feeling they weren't radicals.

[mr friendly guy]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-07/ ... e/10592332

Brits stockpiling food and medicine ahead of Brexit over fears for supply chains
By Europe bureau chief Samantha Hawley and Jack Hawke
Updated earlier today at 7:05am

A mother of three, including four-year-old Nora who is severely disabled, Ms Elgarf insists she is not an American-style prepper. Her kitchen cupboards are full to overflowing, but there is no hidden food under the stairs or in the garage, and no bunker in her backyard.

But the fear of what Brexit may bring has her worried and she wants to make sure she can feed her family if food supplies are impacted by a potential no-deal Brexit scenario.

In July the British Government asked drug companies to stockpile six weeks' worth of medicines to prevent any shortfall even if the supply chain is affected.

Every month the UK imports nearly 40 million packets of medicine from the EU, and even more is exported out of the country.

Brits are stockpiling? Wow. Just wow.

[The Jester]

Brits are stockpiling? Wow. Just wow.

The treaties shall cease to apply.

Imagine The Purge. Only it's not about laws that apply between individuals within a country, but rather the treaties that govern behaviour between countries. That's what this is.

Except this isn't a 24 hour affair.

[Crazedwraith]

May's delayed the vote on her Brexit deal because she can't possibly win it.

We're so screwed.

[Stormin]

May's delayed the vote on her Brexit deal because she can't possibly win it.

We're so screwed.

On the other hand didn't the court just say that the Brits can just decide to cancel Brexit on their own?

[LaCroix]

And May said she wouldn't do that...