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 Post subject: Does McCain already have the Election won?

Posted: 2008-09-08 10:30pm 

The more i look at the papers and online, the more scarred I am.
Lets consider...

With the oppontment of Palin, McCain has locked up the vote of virtually ever last conservative in the country... People who a few weeks ago told me angrily that they would never think of voting McCain are now gushing over themselves about how much they are looking forward to voting for Palin... Across the web, ever last Conservative and Christian fundi who might, just MIGHT have stayed home is now bound and determined to turn out to vote.

That alone has given McCain a MASSIVE boost in the polls across the nation.. Combine this with the small but growing amount of Hillary supporters who are fanning the flames of angry women to vote for Palin just to spite Obama.

At this point, a 49% Obama 51%McCain outcome is looking more and more likely... Unless something changes, does Obama stand a statistical chance of winning against the overwhelming Stupidity of your average bumfuck AMerican?

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Posted: 2008-09-08 10:37pm 

This is the second time in less than two months McCaine has pulled ahead of Obama. The poll numbers have been changing at the drop of a hat.

 Post subject: Re: Does McCain already have the Election won?

Posted: 2008-09-08 10:44pm 

Damn serrated newsprint.



For the moment he's locked up the social conservatives. He's still not genuinely popular with them and simply because he announced his continued intention to suckle at the "party base" teat doesn't change that. I wouldn't count on that particular honeymoon last and if he does more to shore that up, he's at pretty high risk of alienating the portion of America that don't want another four years of this mess.



Do you actually have solid polls to back that? Has there been a continuing trend for McCain?

I wouldn't be surprised if McCain has gained a boost out of all this but he's gotten a head a couple times now and blown it. What matters is the long term trend and that's been generally for the Democrats.

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Posted: 2008-09-08 10:58pm 

The latest polls are not necessarily accurate because they were conducted immediately following the Republican National Convention, so they represent the absolute peak of their post-convention bump, while the Democratic convention bump has had time to fade. There's no reason to panic just yet.

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Posted: 2008-09-08 11:05pm 

The inevitable discovery or Sarah Palin's sex tape could happen at any time as well. That might change some numbers.

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Posted: 2008-09-08 11:10pm 

Now I think I understand Democrats in the US. They see a convention bounce, perhaps the definition of ephermal and brief, a freak the fuck out.

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Posted: 2008-09-08 11:12pm 

Yes, even more overwhelmingly in her favor

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Posted: 2008-09-08 11:24pm 

Well, it is not that all our eggs (or at least mine) are in one basket or anything. Nitram, I have to vote on my civil rights, again, this year.

Frankly I am getting tired. I am 22 and tired... it isnt right.

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Posted: 2008-09-08 11:31pm 

Put it in perspective. These are conservatives-- people who were never going to vote for Obama in the first place.

Adding Palin to the ticket means one thing: people who were originally going to hold their nose and vote for McCain with a frown are now going to skip to the election booth and vote for McCain with a smile instead.

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Posted: 2008-09-08 11:35pm 

No, it means people that support the GOP but would have said, "eh, fuck it." and not have voted, might now vote.

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Posted: 2008-09-08 11:37pm 

You are absolutely correct you know... The modern Democrat has no spine, for over 10years we;ve been consisantly and totally beaten down. Can you blame us for cowerering ast the first bit of bad news?

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Posted: 2008-09-08 11:40pm 

Yes, I can. If you've got even a bit of pride, of interest in doing anything but standing here and losing some more, the response to a bounce is to shrug it off and focus on the real issues at hand, primarily trying to keep people registered given the early start on purges.

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Posted: 2008-09-08 11:44pm 

Use the brain you supposedly evolved and realize bounces are brief and ephermal.

Fuck, stop obsessing over national polling and look at the state polling.

You know, that mechanism which actually decides who wins? Ever heard of it?

Link Pollster.com puts Obama at 243 safe electoral votes, McCain with 179. Yes, Obama appears to have a natural lead of over 60 EV's, with 116 up for grabs.

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Posted: 2008-09-08 11:51pm 

Oh, I agree.

Ok, I got one. John McCaine throws a fit at some public speaking event and loses his temper. He's definitely had high profile blow ups in the past; I'd love to see Obama start to press some of his buttons and watch him explode.

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Posted: 2008-09-08 11:54pm 

I just saw on TV that the latest ras polls have Obama and McCain tied in FLORIDA, which is a big move by Obama (he was, I guess, down by 3-4 points the last time they polled the state). And this poll was taken completely after the RNC. If McCain loses Florida, he is fucked, whether or not he gets Ohio.

So I am feeling really good right now despite the national numbers.

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Posted: 2008-09-09 12:01am 

I, for one, am eagerly awaiting the debates. I'm excited to see a debate in HD, and i'll get to see how many shades of red McCain can turn.

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Posted: 2008-09-09 12:02am 

I would bet that this surge in poll numbers McCaine received from his Palin announcement has peaked. Palin may have secured his votes with the religious tards, but I think lots of people still in the "undecided" category will see how extreme she is in her views and run for the Dems. McCaine's a fossil after all, and the odds of Palin becoming president might be a little higher than what we've had in recent years.

Anyway, you can probably count on seeing McCaine's numbers start to drop. He got his poll surge, and it won't be coming back (unless someone finds a video of Obama praying to Allah or something).

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Posted: 2008-09-09 12:27am 

It's a Palin-McCain ticket to all those people. And she's just VP for goodness' sakes.

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Posted: 2008-09-09 12:27am 

It isnt so much even the polling. I just dont have any faith in the american people anymore. None. It isnt there. I have tried so hard to scrounge up even tiny bits of it, and I cant do it anymore.

My mom's friends for example, apparently love Dr. Blight, and so does my own mother (not that my mom has a decent IQ or anything)

THis is not me freaking out. This is me exhibiting systemic pessimism.

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Posted: 2008-09-09 12:44am 

Except McCain is like my grandfather. he refuses to die and is living on borrowed time. Eventually bubble will burst like the housing market and we dont know when that is going to happen.

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Posted: 2008-09-09 12:50am 

I can see why the dems are running for the safe room when you say it out loud: President Sarah Palin.

Christ, sometimes you have to wonder if the entire world should be allowed to vote in U.S presidential elections on the basis that a.) obviously, the position is that powerful and b.) we have all that election bullshit on our news.

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Posted: 2008-09-09 01:03am 

Well, at least you're not bitter or anything.

I'm probably not the most optimistic when it comes to politics either, but I wouldn't say I've given up. One of the biggest problems I have with politics is our current two party system. Unless you're a democrat or republican, it's almost as if you don't count. I'm pretty sure this wasn't the original idea, and it's too bad we seem to be stuck with it. Anyway, I don't want to play along, so I registered as an independent. I plan on staying that way.

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Posted: 2008-09-09 01:04am 

I wonder if her becoming president would allow me to seek Asylum in canada or Germany...

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Posted: 2008-09-09 01:47am 

As I've been saying for months, I have the utmost confidence in Obama, but I have zero confidence in the American voter. They are collectively a pack of mindless idiots, despite the smarter standouts in their midst.

This election will be determined by the question of whether peoples' fatigue with 8 years of Bush misrule is greater than the combined sum of their bigotry, because that's the core appeal of the McCain-Palin ticket: "We hate the same people you do". It's not about building anything or accomplishing anything or improving anything; it's about them promising that they will hate the same people and things that "real Americans" do, and that they will do everything in their power to harm those people and things.

It's all about the hatred: their policy on sex education is based on their hatred of promiscuous people and their desire to punish them for their pleasure by keeping them ignorant of birth control so that they will get pregnant. Their policy on abortion is based on the exact same hatred, and the exact same goal: forcing sexually promiscuous people to have children. Their foreign policy is based on showing the American people how much they hate the enemy, whoever he may be this week. Maybe the towelheads, maybe the Russkies, maybe the gooks, who knows? Whoever it is, they'll promise to hate them more than the Democrats will. And what about crime? Same thing: they promise to hate the criminal more than the Democrat will. Who cares whether their policies will actually solve anything, or whether they might even make things worse? They're based on hatred of criminals, and that's what really matters: that they hate the same things we do. And then there's the economy, and guess what: that's a hate-based policy too. Their entire economic policy is about making sure that "undeserving" poor are not permitted to live in any state better than what they deserve, which is misery. Sure, not all of them are welfare bums and cheats, but some of them are, and we need to punish those people, because we hate them.

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Posted: 2008-09-09 03:23am 

Fuck the polls. Don't pay attention to the transitory opinions. It's a long way to go yet and even though relative places of sanity like Canada are watching with a fairly sure feeling that Obama simply HAS to win...it's still a horse race. The important thing is not to pay attention to the tides, it's to get in there are actually INFLUENCE them. If I were American, I would be doing every imaginable thing I culd to motivate democratic voters and on top of that undermining the conservative ones by showing them how flawed their party is at this stage of the game.

Don't be complacent. Don't watch from the sidelines. Surely to goodness there are enough people in the United States that can form a majority that says OBAMA is change, McCain is just Bush continued.

Fight! Don't watch. I've never quite forgiven the American Democrats as a whole for allowing that idiot back in for a second term. Thank the heavens they had the sense to shake up the Senate and the House of Representatives towards their favour at least.