Soviet Union returns (RAR)

[mr friendly guy]

Inspired by all these threads about Germany from the past replacing its present day incarnation, lets try one with a country more recent.

As of sept 8, 2016 a fog appears over all areas which were part of the Soviet Union including modern day Russia, Kaliningrad, Ukraine, the Baltics etc. This includes the border islands which modern day Russia ceded to China and border areas ceded to China by former soviet states such as this one with Tajikistan.

All foreign nationals living in these areas at that time are magically returned to their country of citizenship. All citizens of these countries currently overseas remain where they are. So Russian officials at the G20 summit in China at the moment stay where they are.

Due to <insert plot device> we cannot get in pass this fog, but we can hear their radio transmissions, and presumably those inside can hear ours. Amazingly what we hear appears to be Soviet propaganda and the date is sept 8, 1979. By sept 9, the fog starts fading and within 5 days its clear and people can move again.

Lets assume this is the USSR from 1979, but an alternate reality (so no time paradoxes). For all intents and purposes, their history up to sept 8 is the same as the USSR in our reality. Lets make it easier and assume that people start believing this is an alternate reality Soviet Union (no matter how it got here) so we don't waste time on time paradox discussions etc.

Going on, this USSR of course has the tank horde and navy of the USSR circa 1979 in our timeline, and the leader of course is Brezhnev in what is known as the era of stagnation.

What happens?

I mean they just found out that poor country full of peasants across the border has become an economic super power, making their own supercomputers which the Soviets never could do. Their empire is much reduced without eastern europe, and their puppet state Syria is now in a war, and the US has a presence in neighbouring Afghanistan. Oh yeah, and there was lots of Russia Chinese trade across the border, but don't we believe in autarky?

Discuss.

[The Romulan Republic]

Global panic at a bunch of nations suddenly vanishing for no reason, then at the arrival of the old Soviet Union, along with Soviet panic at finding themselves suddenly surrounded by a vastly more powerful US/NATO, as you noted.

Perhaps I'm being cynical, but frankly, I expect a full-scale nuclear exchange in short order.

[U.P. Cinnabar]

I expect a full-scale nuclear exchange in short order.

With American and NATO forces still in Afghanistan(which the USSR would invade in Christmas of '79), and the former Warsaw Pact either in NATO or partnered with it, WWIII and nuclear holocaust are likely inevitable.

On the other hand, this is shortly before the time Soviet leaders start dropping like flies, so it may just play out the way it did originally.

[Elheru Aran]

The biggest two things that I can think of:

--They're going to be very behind technologically. Even the poorest African nations are going to have computers better than they do. Expect a lot of computers to be purchased hastily if not outright stolen. Weapons- and military-wise, I'm not sure how behind they're going to be, but 'quantity is a quality of its own' so that may not matter as much.

--Global economics are going to take at least a temporary nose-dive. Apparently modern Russia is the 12th country in the world in terms of nominal GDP, 6th by PPP (whatever that is). Removing the modern version of that and replacing it with something thirty years behind isn't going to do any good. Several other countries, admittedly not terribly important ones on a global scale, have also just vanished.

A third thing that I thought of just now:

The international sphere of influence of the Soviet Union is going to shock them in how it doesn't exist anymore. Minor example: Nigeria was never a serious ally of theirs... but it bought weapons, vehicles and aircraft, not to mention that they had people selling Russian cars in the major cities back in the day. There were countries like that all over Africa and the Middle East, and many in South America as well IIRC. All that has been gone for the past twenty years. It's going to be something of a rude awakening.

[U.P. Cinnabar]

6th by PPP (whatever that is).

PPP=Purchasing Power Parity, an economic theory approximating adjustments necessary to the currency exchange rate between countries that allows said exchange to equal the purchasing power of each country's currency.

Which the Soviet-era government, if memory serves, didn't really care about, as the ruble wasn't traded publicly, and the central government arbitrarily kept the exchange rate at $1.50 to the ruble.

[K. A. Pital]

I go back to the USSR.

On a more serious note, economic troubles, though not too severe - yes, quite probably. But nuclear war? Unlikely, reasons are same as which made it unlikely in the first place.

[Elheru Aran]

Although, given their sudden lack of global presence and 'allies to come to the aid of', tensions are going to climb quickly as the USSR's former cachet in world power has fallen and they'll have far less of a 'front' to maintain against the West. No longer can they, say, bluster about the US 'acting aggressively against a fellow Socialist partner country' or whatever, because there really aren't many left, and I doubt those that are left will be particularly interested in partnering with the USSR.

Basically, without the Warsaw Pact and their sphere of influence, their diplomatic clout is going to be considerably reduced. As such, they may feel the need to more aggressively posture militarily.

[K. A. Pital]

Perhaps, but it doesn't mean instant war (never did). What might happen instead is asking for aid for oil. The USSR pumps out less oil than Russia at that exact time, so a drastic supply shock will happen. In the end, Western countries can choose to wipe themselves out - a silly act - or work with the USSR as if it was Russia.

[Elheru Aran]

Perhaps, but it doesn't mean instant war (never did). What might happen instead is asking for aid for oil. The USSR pumps out less oil than Russia at that exact time, so a drastic supply shock will happen. In the end, Western countries can choose to wipe themselves out - a silly act - or work with the USSR as if it was Russia.

What would be the consequences of the bolded part? Would there be economic pressure (intentional or otherwise) on the USSR to give up Communism? Reduce its military? Etc?

Would the USSR start trying to rebuild its sphere of influence? Would it even be able to, considering its military technology is now 30+ years behind the times, and as such they don't really have as much to offer other than sheer volume?

[U.P. Cinnabar]

There shouldn't be any need to apply pressure. The hardliners were starting to lose their hold on power, as most of them were(or would start)dying like flies, leading to Gorbachev's rise to power, and the eventual fall of the Soviet system.

Unless, the hardliners have access to our present-day media and see the future, so to speak, and either attempt to prevent this from happening, or acknowledge that it will happen, and help bring about the inevitable a great deal sooner.

[K. A. Pital]

First of all, the studies of the consequences of the Soviet collapse would still be out there, so I doubt the people would want to risk all their savings evaporating overnight and 50% poverty, as well as enormous numbers of jobless and homeless. There's a good reason for hardliners to keep their power. Bear in mind Andropov would be able to learn about his own death, just as many other Soviet officials, and eventually about the collapse.

I also seriously doubt reconstructing the sphere of influence would be on the table for the first years. At first, survival would be the utmost priority.

The economy is more or less isolated from the world, the price of oil has risen (and will rise even more once supply from the former USSR rapidly contracts to 1970s levels) and the price of food commodities has dropped, so they could deal with the resulting hardships.

I also can hardly see the USSR's top CPSU officials just giving up, seeing as China has transformed into a superpower under CCP rule. Most likely, they'd try to understand how this happened, and then attempt a similar transition with a tightly-controlled political environment, although it will most likely fail without FDI and with Soviet labour being a lot more expensive than Chinese, plus lacking the unique political circumstances at the time which permitted China to grow.

The West would try to pressure the USSR into reform again, but I think many top politicians and scientists would seriously start wondering what caused the event and why the USSR has reappeared (but not some other nation). If the Soviet leaders are smart enough, they'd take advantage of the situation, claiming that they have reality-altering technology which can change history. This would scare the shit out of a lot of people.

[TimothyC]

Eastern Europe militarizes rapidly. They finally got out from under the soviet boot, and have no intention of returning to it. Strong push in the US Congress for a roll back of INF and START, as well as a full expansion of the GBI system, and massed roll out of SM-3s across Europe (Koninklijke Marine, Søværnet, Armada Española, and possibly Royal Navy purchase interceptors as well as ground based units)*. Germany gets told to shit or get off the pot with their military spending. The Soviet Union is again limited to natural resource exports, which reminds me - Europe gets hit with a major energy shortage. FRACKING FOR EVERYONE.

*The ABM treaty has already been cancelled by the US, even if the system currently fielded is on par with the Moscow system.

[Gandalf]

Angry old right wing people rejoice at the sight of an enemy with defined borders and a capital.

[mr friendly guy]

There shouldn't be any need to apply pressure. The hardliners were starting to lose their hold on power, as most of them were(or would start)dying like flies, leading to Gorbachev's rise to power, and the eventual fall of the Soviet system.

Unless, the hardliners have access to our present-day media and see the future, so to speak, and either attempt to prevent this from happening, or acknowledge that it will happen, and help bring about the inevitable a great deal sooner.

Remember in the OP citizens living abroad don't disappear. So Russian diplomats are still around in the countries they are posted to diplomatically. So the USSR will get hold of this knowledge from returning diplomats at the very least if not from contacts with the other nations.

[Patroklos]

I highly doubt that the Soviet Union, finding itself thrust into a technological wonderland of which they have zero participation in and which being as paranoid as they were will assume applies to Western military technology x10000, will find it a good idea to initiate warfare. They would have to assume that we have things like SDI that would just invite their obliteration in retaliation without any hope of a first strike knockout. This will will be bolstered when they learn about actual small scale BMD capabilities currently deployed in Europe slowly but surely. By the time they realize the scale of their forces would overwhelm such systems, they true depth of their quality backwardness everywhere else will become apparent.

Nuclear wise things remain mostly the same. US and western (and Chinese) nuclear arsenals are far more technologically capable, but also greatly reduced in scale. The ability of NATO and others to stop a Soviet retaliation may have actually decreased as the scale of SAM and other defenses have decreased dramatically since 1990 and even if we have far more capable aircraft we also have far less of them. Western tolerance for military loses have also drastically declined since 1990 as well, so it won't take much to deter us (NK can do it with a handful of so far apparently undeliverable warheads). So the Soviets still have a credible retaliation force, that should keep a lid on things.

Remember in the OP citizens living abroad don't disappear. So Russian diplomats are still around in the countries they are posted to diplomatically. So the USSR will get hold of this knowledge from returning diplomats at the very least if not from contacts with the other nations.

Given what the reappeared Soviets will learn about most Russian government agents and any foreign traveling oligarchs once they learn how to work google, I doubt any remaining real time Russians will want to go back to their homeland.

[TimothyC]

One thing that should also be mentioned is the re-establishment of the Estonian Government in Exile and the Lithuanian and Latvian Diplomatic Services returning to their long running functionality as holders of the government's sovereignty. I think they especially would be recognized by western powers as all three are NATO counties. The phrase "Soviet Occupied Baltics" comes into the vernacular.

Also, I would put it past the the moderate left to shove the pacifistic left in the US and the UK (as represented by Sanders and Corbyn) back into the closet as the prospect of thousands of red ICBMs is back to being real.

Edit: in good news, all of the soviet semi-automatic weapons that were sold to people in the US will eventually be able to be sold again. This means I might eventually be able to get one in good condition without it costing an arm and a leg.

[Patroklos]

Regarding the Baltics, I think the situation will end up better for the Soviets than real life. In 1979 those outside the Soviet union remembered their independent countries that actually still existed and had family and loved ones back at home. In this scenario the left over real world Baltic citizens would have no link to the actual people who now live there, and since the expats from 1979 didn't show up those in the Baltic nations would have no connections outside the Soviet Union.

[K. A. Pital]

Quite likely the USSR will figure out shortly that its weapons (nuclear ones) still do matter.

What "no chance of retaliation"? Submarines like the Typhoon are still a very serious weapon. If the treaties are void (and the USSR will inquire as to whether the other nations still adhere to them), then orbital nuclear weapons are also on the table.

[TimothyC]

Quite likely the USSR will figure out shortly that its weapons (nuclear ones) still do matter.

What "no chance of retaliation"? Submarines like the Typhoon are still a very serious weapon. If the treaties are void (and the USSR will inquire as to whether the other nations still adhere to them), then orbital nuclear weapons are also on the table.

The only treaty that is no longer in effect is the 1972 ABM treaty. The Partial Test Ban Treaty, the Threshold Test Ban Treaty, and the Outer Space Treaty are still in effect. I'd have to look at the expiration date for SALT, but SALT 1 is certainly recognized, and US forces are bellow SALT 2 levels.

[Patroklos]

What "no chance of retaliation"? Submarines like the Typhoon are still a very serious weapon.

That generation of Russian submarines are nothing but targets to modern Western ones. They and the Russian airforce would only remain relevant due to volume. As was already said though, quantity has a quality all its own. Even if a detected Russian submarine is an automatically dead one, we have far fewer SSNs to track them down too.

If the Russians are smart they would considerably downsize their largely obsolete navy and airforce immediately and pour their resources into their still relevant and largely invulnerable ICBMs while upgrading their army as fast as possible. That gives them the security of nuclear protection and a bulwark against invasion.

In 1979 what portion of the quantity and quality of the Red Army was outside the borders of the USSR? I assume in this scenario all of those troops were lost. If the Red Army is gutted in both numbers and effectiveness can the USSR be maintained internally?

If the treaties are void (and the USSR will inquire as to whether the other nations still adhere to them), then orbital nuclear weapons are also on the table.

It hardly matters. How did trying to just keep up with the Western allies work out for the USSR in real time? Especially in space? Oh yeah I remember....

[mr friendly guy]

In 1979 what portion of the quantity and quality of the Red Army was outside the borders of the USSR? I assume in this scenario all of those troops were lost. If the Red Army is gutted in both numbers and effectiveness can the USSR be maintained internally?
.

Well I didn't actually specify what happened to them, only what happens to people in the 2016 time line. Since this has come up, by the power invested in me by Q, I will say they end up back in the borders of the USSR. So all Soviet citizens circa 1979 who are abroad return to the motherland prior to the transition to the 2016 timeline, due to the power of whichever mischievous being decided to troll humanity with this trick.

[Patroklos]

With their equipment?

[mr friendly guy]

With their equipment?

Well I could have them appear back in the motherland naked, (I assume uniform counts under equipment), but I think that would be downright weird, so all their equipment comes back with them.

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So far we seem to have the Soviet response to Europe and the US, who were their primary interests at the time. What about China, who the soviets eventually settled their border issues with at the time, and by settled I mean kicked the can down the road for some future leader to sort out. So at 1979, having good relations with China was not a big priority, and it wasn't until Gorbachev that Soviet foreign policy made detente with China a priority.

How would they react to modern China? Will they see the PRC as new useful ally after they found out the numerous trade deals modern Russia did with China, how Putin thanked China (and India as well) for keeping quiet regards to Crimea and that they share some common geopolitical interests. Or will they react negatively to the country from their perspective who only 10 years ago fought a border conflict with them?

[Elheru Aran]

I suspect the Chinese themselves will not be terribly thrilled by seeing a new potential enemy on their borders, especially a country with whom they don't particularly have a very good relationship with.

[Simon_Jester]

I go back to the USSR.

Great. Now I've got a Beatles song stuck in my head.