Conditions under which a revolution would be successful

[Thanas]

Alright, so this is something I want to open up to the group.

Suppose to say you want to start a socialist revolution in a second-world or third-world country. Suppose you say you succeeded getting into power via elections, so the west will not have a pretext to invade/bomb you. Suppose your diplomatic corps is competent and you don't make any huge blunders so your international standing is not damaged.

The country is as follows:
- very little industry
- economy based on export of raw materials and agriculture
- what little industry and most of the export economy is in the hands of a few oligarchs and foreign experts are dominating in every field.

How do you go about transforming this into a socialist country?
Is that even possible today, considering you do not have a huge nation backing you like the USSR used to do?

Ideas?
My thinking would be to first build up an educated class of professionals, but that takes a lot of time. Meanwhile slowly start to move the society to the left. But I don't think this would give quick enough results especially if you only got a few years in power before election strikes.

[Purple]

Honestly I think that it can't be done under those conditions. The people who get you elected and keep you in power are newer the population. It's the rich oligarchs. And anything that cuts into their profit margins is going to lead to you being invaded or otherwise ousted. The western world does not care how you got into power. It cares about how much you play to their tune.

[Zor]

Have a flagship factory as a start. Built, owned and operated by the state and ready to do business with other firms and using foreign aide when nessisary. If you have Lithium deposits make it a Lithium battery factory. Hopefully something which makes good use of the existing raw materials. It gets a lot of press and publicity, though if things go sour the blame will fall on you.

Other than that, invest in education and infrastructural development which are boring but are useful and proven.

Zor

[Mr Bean]

Well given the starting situation your going to have to get creative to get socialism going. You could go the slow route by providing government backing for one or two key services. Heathcare is to expensive, education is expected by most but if you move to early you risk ending up with lots of free shitty schools best to beg western assistance there. Police and fire are out because even 3rd would countries expect them and if you don't already have them... why not get moving on that instantly.

So what do you make free an a public good?
What about transportation?
How do you encourage internal job seeking and upwards mobility? Well first off you need a mobile population, if your economy is agrarian and raw resource your never going to get smaller stores open without easy transportation of goods and workers internally. So prehaps start with trying to improve transportation for your public as much as possible internally.

[madd0ct0r]

Historically, being elected legitimately is not much defense if you threaten western interests.

Do we have an island or do we have neighbours?

Are these neighbours belligerent or potentially volatile? Do we compete in raw material production or is mutual specialisation possible?
What access to markets

What is the tourism potential? Cambodia is able to support its economy on ngo tourism, with volunteers coming back for holidays as moneyed professionals.

Also, size, land area and population size. India is a different problem to the Falklands

[J]

Propaganda. I shall need a well run propaganda system to keep me in power for at least a generation so that my reforms can bear fruit. Time is what I need, there is no path to success with the usual 4-5 year election cycle, I need to buy myself time to implement a long term plan. Which, I think would be loosely based on something like the Meiji Restoration in Japan.

[Guardsman Bass]

The only way I'm going to make serious progress is by breaking up the oligarchs. That may be possible to do without too much foreign interference in this set-up as long as I give the impression of fair compensation and legal process - ideally you'd give them long-term government bonds as a way to pay them off, defer the cost of compensation, and tie them to the government's survival in the long run.

Once you've done that, though, you start by distributing the land to your peasants and assigning them to farmer cooperatives centered around a common state bank/credit union. Any farm products they produce above their quotas can be sold domestically or abroad, provided they ensure that the quality of good sold domestically is the same as sold abroad when they're the same good. The earnings go the cooperatives with a split with some of it into the central cooperative credit union for future financing needs. Farmers get a plot in their cooperatives to work as their own, but can also flow between cooperatives to do work and start/shut them down.

At the same time, I do a massive state build-out of roads and infrastructure, while also setting up various "test" industries in sectors using access to foreign exports and careful technology theft. Same sort of stuff with the factories as with the farms: cooperative ownership, organized by sector around a central credit union/state bank funneling money into the cooperatives, worker flow, can sell excess domestically or abroad with the same type of conditions as above, etc. I'd also want to work out some channels so that that agro-cooperatives and industrial/service/commercial cooperatives can exchange funds, so as to avoid the rise of a shadow banking sector that's difficult to control.

Also, tons of good-will apartment construction and support for free state education at all levels. That will be essential for building long-term support for my regime, while also making the formerly poor rural folks feel that they have an immense personal debt towards me and my government in general. Make a lot of PR campaigns showing how much I care for them, how much I respect them, etc.

[Nephtys]

Check out this book: I just finished it.
http://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handboo ... s+handbook

It case studies a few fairly reasonable (and very simple) premises:
To gain power, one must have or gain a set of key influential supporters paid well in benefits. The size of this body varies based on circumstance (more tends to be 'dictatorial', less is 'representative') and you must be in an environment where the previous ruler(s) have their influencers unshaky in terms of their support (ie, if they've not been given the right amount of benefits, risk having their elite group expanded, or don't have faith in the leader due to waste or failing health).
Then, you need to eliminate any factors that result in forcibly putting you die (ie, military must be corrupt, or perhaps underpaid or unmotivated).
Incumbent supporters must be suborned if possible, eliminated or maginalized if not.

The people by this premise rarely fit in, except by the means to already result in a weakened incumbent leadership. But like in business, almost every action can (and likely should) be viewed in a government in how it satisfies powerful oligarchs with an interest in system maintenance.

[K. A. Pital]

Suppose to say you want to start a socialist revolution in a second-world or third-world country. Suppose you say you succeeded getting into power via elections, so the west will not have a pretext to invade/bomb you. Suppose your diplomatic corps is competent and you don't make any huge blunders so your international standing is not damaged.

I am very sorry, Thanas... Hhhahaaha.


Note the photo was chosen randomly... just seemed to correspond to your country profile.

The country is as follows:
- very little industry
- economy based on export of raw materials and agriculture
- what little industry and most of the export economy is in the hands of a few oligarchs and foreign experts are dominating in every field.

That's harsh. Let's be realistic, you will need the help of either Russia or China, who are not completely opposed to the idea of a socialist country being their client. Although it depends on the size of the country's population. Anything above 50 million, and I can already do a lot of stuff independently.

How do you go about transforming this into a socialist country?

I will start with building the nonexistent (industry) and looking at the weak spots. What precluded the development of industry - poor literacy? Lack of indigenous technical higher education? Lack of capital? And when the weak spots are identified, act on them.

Is that even possible today, considering you do not have a huge nation backing you like the USSR used to do?

You can win power in either war, revolution or elections depending on the circumstances, that's certain. Could you build a socialist country? Quite possibly so. What do you mean under a socialist country though?

My thinking would be to first build up an educated class of professionals, but that takes a lot of time.

This depends on what you are starting with. It does not take a lot of time to go from literate people to nuclear physics. It doesn't take that long to go from illiterate peasant 80% to nuclear physics and breaking into space... and with cheap and ubiqutous computers nowadays it is only easier.

Meanwhile slowly start to move the society to the left. But I don't think this would give quick enough results especially if you only got a few years in power before election strikes.

Usually there are some pressing needs which need to be addressed immediately.

Some suggest moving against the oligarchs immediately. Could be a good idea, but you have to make sure there is a way to confiscate their property. They will move capitals out, so capital controls will have to be installed. In general, taking out the oligarchs will be a nightmare. But worse yet, you will have to make sure no foreign oligarchs take over your economy as a result of consolidation. Usually consolidated capital is aggressively pursued by foreign plunderers. The state sector in socialist economies is big. Running it competently in all industries is a daunting task, and the vultures are always waiting across the border, even among those who can at first offer "help". You will have to constantly live with the understanding that your neighbors and trade partners will have corporations whose aims will include dismantling your state sector and taking over the best bits.

I am not sure we necessarily need a "dictator" something, but you will be looking at F.D. Roosevelt-level unilateral actions or, for a better example, Indira Ghandi.

[madd0ct0r]

Is that even possible today, considering you do not have a huge nation backing you like the USSR used to do?

I'm not sure this is a fair question - ALL socialist countries that emerged during the cold war had to step between the two elephants. The ones that are succesfully emerging now haven't been proven by history.

[Themightytom]

Remove any expectation of minimum wage if there is one but heavily regulate commerce to increase state control of private industry. I feel like starting with flat rate food for work and housing is the best start, include a liquor allotment for working adults, like a company pub. Government run farms, and distribution to community food centers to start, ultimately adding state run textile factories and construction programs. Encourage repetitive monotonous work, that leaves people generally exhausted at the end of the day but their basic needs satisfied. Hook the unemployed, healthy adults and then rope their families in with alotments through working adults for family members. Communal eating options, like soup kitchens, clothing recycling options, continue to export but don't really encourage importing.
Build a strong state police force, where officers from one region work in another, provide free housing and quality food for officers, as well as some fringe benefits, like exclusive clubs, nicer parts of town to live in, etc. Offer cheap, stripped down internet and communications options as well, net neutrality, for example, can't be a thing, you don't overtly censor anything at first, just make it more trouble than it's worth to even get interested in it. Don't use propaganda per se, incentive simple, noncompetitive lifestyles that support basic needs.