Germany goes for Alliance with Brazil

[CaptHawkeye]

Simple what if. In this scenario Nazi Germany opts for an alliance with a fellow fascist power in South America particularly Brazil. Somewhat unlike historical Brazil, Getulio Vargas instead opts for an aggressive campaign of militarist expansion like his overseas ally Germany. His goal is to create a great pan-south american super country blah blah usual dictator's goals. This alliance is basically concrete by the end of 1934, giving the Nazis and Brazilian army time to prepare for an upcoming war.

So, what can Brazil and Germany do for eachother? They have 5 years or so before the invasion of Poland to prepare for war. What does Brazil do to mobilize? Can it *even* mobilize for a war against other South American powers? How can Germany, with extensive prep time help Brazil? Conversely what can Brazil do for Germany? How do the Allied powers react to an Axis player in South America?

[NettiWelho]

I could see Argentina joining the axis too(or atleast recruitment attempts by Brazil and german diplomats), and with 2 south american regional power already in axis Chile might be tempted as well

hmm... occupying allied islands/territories(Guianas/Falklands), once US joins the war push for Panama canal by land, and other obvious, extra leverage to try to talk Spain and Portugal to join up(to grab Gibraltar if nothing else), promising help in protecting their african(and Portugals asian) colonies

If germans chose to play a co-ordinated game with Brazil and other new allies(unlike IRL example Japan-German interaction; right hand had no idea at times what left foot was trying to do), i could see Germany upping the priorities on Z-plan mixed with some extra naval carriers with Brazil(& co) alike continuing to modernize and expand their fleet to seriously challenge the allied naval forces.
And with panama canal in axis hands(and cape horn under heavy patrolling) US might have some serious troubles re-inforcing the pacific/atlantic fleets with ships from the other in case of catastrophic naval losses

the big questions might be will US get involved earlier with axis running wild on every continent(as posed in OP's) and will Hitler stay out of USSR/and if he does how long will they stay out of Germany; long enough for axis to cripple the allies naval might and do a proper blockade of UK?(as in; prolonged complete blockade might force UK to surrender/make Seelöwe viable?)

[Iosef Cross]

At the time Brazil didn't have any warmaking potential. The country could only produce 200,000 tons of steel per year, for example and had 65% of the population illiterate. If they try to make an army, they would need to import German technology, German weapons and ammunition, German machinery, German scientists, etc.

Argentina was much more developed than Brazil (their per capita income was higher than France, Italy, Japan and the USSR in ~1940), and I think that they might win in a war between the two, even though Brazilian population was 3-4 times of Argentina's.

Though historically, Argentina supported Germany, while Brazil supported the US. In this aspect, Brazil correctly predicted the new hegemon for Latin America.

[Iosef Cross]

dear NettiWelho,

South America at the time didn't have great warmaking potential, hence, they couldn't significantly increase the warmaking potential of the Axis. The only thing that they could do would be to supply natural resources to Axis Europe, with was in severe need for rare metals and oil. The problem is that they didn't have the shipping tonnage to do much and the Allies would certainly have the naval superiority over the Atlantic and could easily sunk any South American convoy. The south american countries didn't have the industry to replace these losses and Germany didn't have the steel to spare in making millions of tons of merchant shipping.

[Jalinth]

I could see Argentina joining the axis too(or atleast recruitment attempts by Brazil and german diplomats), and with 2 south american regional power already in axis Chile might be tempted as well

Given the Brazilian Argentine antipathy, it was more likely to join the Allies. They did and still do not like each other. Also, linking Brazil to Germany could easily cause the early involvement of the US given their traditional doctrine of keeping the Old World out of the Americas.
I'm honestly not sure how beneficial Brazil would be to the German cause. The US found them beneficial more for supply lane/anti submarine purposes than anything else and had to supply them with a significant portion of their armament.

[Sea Skimmer]

Brazil went bankrupt buying a battleship and had an economy based off selling agricultural products to the allies, they would have less value to the Nazis then Hungary did. The British and France would start capturing coastal cities as soon as the war broke out. US entry into the war is pretty damn likely, though we might merely declare war on Brazil and not the Germans while enforcing the historical neutrality zone.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

To call the Integralists fascists is a bit overdone, considering they were anti-racist and allowed black people and Jews to join as long as they were patriotic Brazilians. There's a reason that Brazil sided with the US in WW2 and not Germany, after all. You might as well teleport entirely new leaders into place because this was just completely different from Vargas' ideosyncratic vision of Integralism.

[NettiWelho]

After raiding my local libraries for the only singular book(!) they had on economic history of latin americas; it only had vague mentions of growth by perioids but no total resource outputs(google was suprisingly scarce on this info too)

populations in 1939:
Argentina 13.9 mil
Brazil 40.3 mil
Chile 4.9 mil

for comparison:
(not quite sure where this is from actually but ive had it lying around for a while)

Code: Select all

Population and industrial capacity 	 	
							Population in 1939 	Steel output in tons
UK 								47.961.000 	13.192.000
France 							41.600.000 	6.221.000
USSR 							190.000.000 	18.800.000
USA 							132.122.000 	51.380.000
Germany (including Austria) 	76.008.000 	23.329.000	
Italy 							44.223.000 	2.323.000
Japan 							71.400.000 	5.811.000
Canada 							11.682.000 	1.407.000
South Africa (white) 			2.161.000 	250.000
Australia 						6.807.000 	1.189.000
New Zealand 					1.585.000 	--
India 							374.200.000 	1.035.000

Iosef Cross: from what year is the 200k tons per year for brazil and where did you get it?(ie. can you look up numbers for other south american countries?)

[CaptHawkeye]

To call the Integralists fascists is a bit overdone, considering they were anti-racist and allowed black people and Jews to join as long as they were patriotic Brazilians. There's a reason that Brazil sided with the US in WW2 and not Germany, after all. You might as well teleport entirely new leaders into place because this was just completely different from Vargas' ideosyncratic vision of Integralism.

Oh definitely. The basic idea of the thread is to see what effect would be had on WW2 by making South America a more active region of the war. As it is however we're seeing that Brazil is basically incapable of more than token participation in the war.

[LionElJonson]

If they're allied by 1934, couldn't they have used those five years to begin a campaign of crash industrialization and armament building?

Also, if by getting Brazil/Argentina/Chile, they also get Spain, wouldn't that in itself make it worthwhile? Well, at least as worthwhile as the Nazi alliance with Italy, anyway?

[Thanas]

Also, if by getting Brazil/Argentina/Chile, they also get Spain

That does not follow.

[Ilya Muromets]

Also, if by getting Brazil/Argentina/Chile, they also get Spain, wouldn't that in itself make it worthwhile? Well, at least as worthwhile as the Nazi alliance with Italy, anyway?

Just because Argentina and Chile have Spanish as their official language doesn't mean they'll immediately ally with Spain and vice versa. Plus, Brazil's official language isn't even Spanish, it's Portuguese.

[That NOS Guy]

If they're allied by 1934, couldn't they have used those five years to begin a campaign of crash industrialization and armament building?

Well, it's an interesting thought what a 5 year plan could accomplish, but there are intense limiting factors. One, what resources can Brazil draw on for said industrialization? Germany's economy was stretched to it's limits, or was in the process of that, the western democracies, specifically America, would be loathe to see a new competitor arise, especially in the middle of the Great Depression. Though I suppose it is worth noting Roosevelt's "good neighbor" policy was in full swing, so it's possible the US wouldn't go for full-on active interference from the get-go.

There's only so much organic know-how and industry that can be marshaled by an economy as poor and industrialized state like Brazil at the time. If we're talking like 20 or so years, it might develop a reasonable warfighting capacity, but even that relies on a fairly optimistic set of data.

Also, if by getting Brazil/Argentina/Chile, they also get Spain, wouldn't that in itself make it worthwhile? Well, at least as worthwhile as the Nazi alliance with Italy, anyway?

The real question is why would these countries, historic rivals many of them, band up to fight a European war? More importantly, why would an alliance of South American countries convince Franco to be stupid? Spain was simply in no shape to fight any war after the Spanish Civil War, especially the Second World War.

[NettiWelho]

Well, it's an interesting thought what a 5 year plan could accomplish, but there are intense limiting factors. One, what resources can Brazil draw on for said industrialization

According to my sources south american countries had been exporting lots of raw materials late 19th->eartly 20th up untill the depression, when the demand dropped by up to 60%(which was one of the main causes for some countries there adopting ISI policies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_sub ... ialization ; meaning it could be argued that there is room and local resources to greatly increase indrustial capacity

The real question is why would these countries, historic rivals many of them, band up to fight a European war? More importantly, why would an alliance of South American countries convince Franco to be stupid? Spain was simply in no shape to fight any war after the Spanish Civil War, especially the Second World War.

Again, it could be argued(for sake of the argument; 3-way South-American axis alliance between Chile-Argentina-Brazil and Hitler not wandering into USSR before other fronts are secured AND the Italians being more than historically competent[+Germany allocating more resources for Navy]) that if their modernization programs were succesful at best allied navy could be challenged to the point where a blockade of UK would be doable(up until surrender or pounded until sealöwe was viable).
This would also mean that allied strategic bombers having no base of operations in europe, Germanys industry would not get hammered(and no place for allies to stage any mass landing in europe).
German nuke-scenario would be elevated from pipe-dream status to highly unlikely(US still way ahead in the lead)
to say nothing of more time and options for japanese

At worst they would keep millions of men and a good sized fleet occupied that would be needed elsewhere

And about Franco and Salazar... if the unlikely scenario above would somehow come to pass i wouldnt count it as unlikely for them to join the axis at that point(or some variation of the above with enough spin to make it appear as axis had the unquestioned upper hand in grand-strategic scale), definately more likely than in our timeline, but not certain by any means again

and for lastly; it wouldnt be an european war, it was called a world war for a reason

[Serafina]

German nuke-scenario would be elevated from pipe-dream status to highly unlikely(US still way ahead in the lead)
to say nothing of more time and options for japanese

No.
Because such a mass-strike would have relied on intercontinental bombers, which would have been (and historicall were) available shortly after the historical end of the war.

You can literary throw every conceivable favor (and a lot of unconceivable/impossible) at the axis and they still can do nothing to prevent this. And since no one would have hesistated to do this and the USA was untouchable by the axis, it would have happened.

[NettiWelho]

German nuke-scenario would be elevated from pipe-dream status to highly unlikely(US still way ahead in the lead)
to say nothing of more time and options for japanese

No.
Because such a mass-strike would have relied on intercontinental bombers, which would have been (and historicall were) available shortly after the historical end of the war.

I am sorry but i am at a loss about what you are referring to? i was not suggesting a nuclear strike against US

You can literary throw every conceivable favor (and a lot of unconceivable/impossible) at the axis and they still can do nothing to prevent this. And since no one would have hesistated to do this and the USA was untouchable by the axis, it would have happened.

If you really went about skewing the starting stats you could end up with a scenario with axis domination over europe, south america, asia and africa with Axis Coalition-US-USSR cold war(which could be technically considered axis victory compared against what wouldve happened without divine intervention(something like catastrophic failure prior to trinity test killing most of scientists)), but yeah, US invasion is out of reach as a viable goal pretty much any way you spin it if the starting point is around 1935

[Sea Skimmer]

The allies could have always invade Europe out of North Africa instead of Britain anyway. I mean… we fucking did already with Husky, Avalanche and Dragoon. The scale of amphibious forces and mobile construction assets the US alone created allow you pretty much any option you could want. LST production would allow 40,000 tanks landed over the beach in an assault force if you really wanted and rationed use of the things prior. We’d knock out Brazil in 1942-43, then jump across to Freetown and head north. Starting the invasion of Europe at Freetown was actually proposed in real life, due to fears that the Luftwaffe in 1942 would be as effective against our invasion forces as it was against the British at Crete and that the Nazis might base out of Dakar.

[NettiWelho]

[the entire message above]

Would that still be the case if all axis powers put a lot more resources than historically into building a navy(Germany/Japan/Italy/Argentina/Brazil as big players and Spain and Portugal joining later with what they have) with heavy focus in carriers and naval aviation engineering?(ie. pre-war plan to build up to surpass allied naval capacity in total, with, lets say; imported japanese knowhow with carriers)

Would US consider it worth the risks to attempt to break a UK blockade if axis had atleast relative naval parity atleast in european side of the atlantic(+ axis land based aircraft superiority with RAF chewed up and constant airfield bombing runs), or would they let UK to be slowly choked to death?

And how would US supply its troops in North Africa if the allies didnt have naval supremecy?

[Simon_Jester]

To call the Integralists fascists is a bit overdone, considering they were anti-racist and allowed black people and Jews to join as long as they were patriotic Brazilians.

Hmm. Fascists but not Nazis, then? In a multiracial state, I'd think you could have non-racist nationalist fascism.

[NettiWelho]

Hmm. Fascists but not Nazis, then? In a multiracial state, I'd think you could have non-racist nationalist fascism.

Seconded, even the extreme-right elements in Finland during WW2 were against things like turning over any jews to Germany or otherwise even considering any legislation against them, despite of external pressures, and Finland was pretty much a homogeneous country culturally and racially as it gets

[Sea Skimmer]

Would that still be the case if all axis powers put a lot more resources than historically into building a navy(Germany/Japan/Italy/Argentina/Brazil as big players and Spain and Portugal joining later with what they have) with heavy focus in carriers and naval aviation engineering?(ie. pre-war plan to build up to surpass allied naval capacity in total, with, lets say; imported japanese knowhow with carriers)

Only Japan and Germany are remotely relevant, Italy could not even afford its naval plans in peacetime and none of the others have any worthwhile industry or navy in the first place. In fact the Axis satellites are all resource drains on Germany, this was particularly true of Italy and would be absurdly true of Spain and Portugal both of whom depended on imported food as well as importing most raw materials. If Spain joined the war Spain would STARVE. That is why Spain never did so. The only place Germany could get the resources it needed was in the USSR, and we all know how well that worked out in real life. Adding Brazil to the mix changes nothing, except to give the allies an easy target early in the war when they didn't have much amphibious capability. Adding worthless satellites like Spain just mean the Germans have fewer resources for German factories.

The US could and did build a fleet which was entirely capable of defeating the IJN and anything Germany could build at the same time. The ships approved in the 1940 Two Ocean Navy bill (guess why they called it that....) alone could do this, and the US went on add a great many hulls to that plan, while the only major removal was the canceling of the Montana class battleships. The fact that the US had absurdly better naval aircraft and radar and anti aircraft weapons late war is just icing on the cake.

Would US consider it worth the risks to attempt to break a UK blockade if axis had atleast relative naval parity atleast in european side of the atlantic(+ axis land based aircraft superiority with RAF chewed up and constant airfield bombing runs), or would they let UK to be slowly choked to death?

The Axis would never have any such thing. It would have taken until 1945 for the Germans to build a fleet which could merely match what the USN already had in 1940. Brazil would have to be totally insane to join the Axis; it’s so dumb as to be almost beyond words. They’d surrender after a couple British R class battleships finish burning down Rio de Janeiro. I believe Brazil did have a few heavy guns which might prevent that, but overall the nations military situation is hopeless. Other South American powers might well jump into the war against Brazil in ordered to steal territory. No one else in South America ever liked just how damn much of the continent they owned.

And how would US supply its troops in North Africa if the allies didnt have naval supremecy?

The US would, that's just a fact. The US and British fleets put together makes the situation a joke. If you want the Germans to have even naval parity then you've got to find a way for them to capture a large portion of the French and British fleets and somehow put them into operation. But even that scenario can be won by the US anyway, that scenario is exactly what the Two Ocean Navy program guarded against!

The fact is in real life the US and Britain vastly over estimated the strategic capabilities of the Nazis and Japan. We made all sorts of plans and deployed resources to counter the threat of Axis establishing a foot hold in the Americas. The US for example feared the Germans would occupy Vichy French islands in the Caribbean, using captured French warships, and use them as bases to bomb North America. This is why the US was so keen to trade old destroyers for access to numerous British Caribbean and Canadian bases for example in 1940. In the Pacific places as far beyond Japans reach as Madagascar and the Johnston Atolls were occupied and fortified against attack.

Such a situation didn’t happen and could not happen. But if by magic we throw Brazil into the Axis camp that merely means real life American fears are realized, and would be countered by the worst case plans put into effect but halted in real life.

Now if the entire Luftwaffe with airfields and huge supply stocks and Panzer divisions as defenses suddenly appears by magic in Mexico, Cuba, and Canada in 1939, then the US is in big trouble.

[That NOS Guy]

According to my sources south american countries had been exporting lots of raw materials late 19th->eartly 20th up untill the depression, when the demand dropped by up to 60%(which was one of the main causes for some countries there adopting ISI policies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_sub ... ialization ; meaning it could be argued that there is room and local resources to greatly increase indrustial capacity/

It takes more than raw materials to run an industrial powerhouse. It takes infrastructure building, know-how, et al. Brazil in 1934 has none of this, if your reaction is "Well, but the USSR..." stop right there. The USSR had the technological know-how, access to it when it didn't, educated people, resources, and a huge population base to do it, so yeah.

As I noted before, a longer term policy might make Brazil passable, but 5 years? I just don't see how.

and for lastly; it wouldnt be an european war, it was called a world war for a reason

Skimmer and the others have deftly handled the nonsense before this, but this deserves correction. Just because a war is fought across the globe does not mean it is not a conflict originating from and ending for the most part in Europe, ergo a European war. I mean after all, World War I was fought all over the world, as was the 7 Year's War, but we think of them as European conflicts, what makes World War II so different, the Japanese trying to emulate, somewhat ironically, the Europeans?

[CaptHawkeye]

Would that still be the case if all axis powers put a lot more resources than historically into building a navy(Germany/Japan/Italy/Argentina/Brazil as big players and Spain and Portugal joining later with what they have) with heavy focus in carriers and naval aviation engineering?(ie. pre-war plan to build up to surpass allied naval capacity in total, with, lets say; imported japanese knowhow with carriers)

The thinking for and doctrine for naval aviation wasn't something you could instill into a navy overnight. It took the Royal Navy, US Navy, and IJN a long time and lot of work to figure out how a naval air power could and should work. Countries like Italy and Germany put very little effort into carriers and basically gave up on them because they knew they were at least 20 years behind everyone else's designs. As it was they were already having a hard enough time just making battleships that were beyond World War 1 level thinking. Brazil has literally never manufactured its own capital ship. It would take them a lot longer than 5 years to seriously build up their navy. Opposing the Allies on the high seas for Brazil is just a no-go. Even if Germany dives headfirst into Plan Z.

Would US consider it worth the risks to attempt to break a UK blockade if axis had atleast relative naval parity atleast in european side of the atlantic(+ axis land based aircraft superiority with RAF chewed up and constant airfield bombing runs), or would they let UK to be slowly choked to death?

Basically wasn't going to happen. It's been discussed before but their was basically no way for the Kreigsmarine to project and maintain power anywhere in Atlantic. Reliance on the U-Boats meant that they could raid convoys and that's about it. I figured Brazil might have enough to build a decent size merchant fleet to ship Germany some more natural resources than it would have had pre-war. Or possibly allow the Germans to ship men and equipment overseas to aid Brazil in attacking other South American states. Ultimately it turns out Brazil lacks the industrial power to do much more than keep itself intact.

And how would US supply its troops in North Africa if the allies didnt have naval supremecy?

How would they *not* have naval supremacy by the end of things? The USN was literally outbuilding every navy in the world by many times their own weight. Even the Royal Navy found itself utterly eclipsed in naval power by the end of the war. The RN had no problem at all thrashing Italy and basically wrecking the KM's surface forces in Norway at the same time. God help them if the US totally goes Germany First strategy.

[Patrick Degan]

Again, it could be argued(for sake of the argument; 3-way South-American axis alliance between Chile-Argentina-Brazil and Hitler not wandering into USSR before other fronts are secured AND the Italians being more than historically competent[+Germany allocating more resources for Navy]) that if their modernization programs were succesful at best allied navy could be challenged to the point where a blockade of UK would be doable(up until surrender or pounded until sealöwe was viable).
This would also mean that allied strategic bombers having no base of operations in europe, Germanys industry would not get hammered(and no place for allies to stage any mass landing in europe).

The U.S. AWPD-1 War Plan was already predicated upon the assumption of having no European bomber bases, which was what the B-36 development project was for in the first place. Also, none of the South American nations in this proposed alliance have any power-projection capability and could never have resisted determined Allied naval attacks to shut down their ports and neutralise them, much less contribute militarily to the Nazi war effort in the Battle of the Atlantic. And Sealion was never going to be viable —that plan was only a slightly lesser pipe dream than a Nazi atomic bomb. The Kriegsmarine utterly lacked landing craft which could cross the Engish Channel and had nothing that could carry across tanks, trucks, and heavy equipment to support infantry, and had insufficient force to challenge Britain for control of the Channel in the first place. Sealion would have been a historic disaster had it been attempted, with most of the invasion force drowning in the Channel after their shallow-draft riverine barges (seriously, this is what the Nazis were gathering as landing craft for this operation) get swamped by even light swells and probably without ever coming in sight of the White Cliffs, and what survivors who would make it to the English beaches would find themselves in POW camps within the month of the landing.

This alliance would contribute nothing substantial to the Nazis. They cannot add to German military force nor could they protect their own supply lines with the Continent, and the Kriegsmarine can't afford to shift forces to protect those sealanes without degrading their effort against the North Atlantic convoys. In the end, it would make very little difference to the eventual outcome of the war.

[Thanas]

This has gone on long enough. I should have locked it outright.