Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

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Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by JMHthe3rd »

TL;DR version: A duplicate Saturn from an alternate universe get's ISOT'd to 1968. More details at the end.
Image
Nearly weightless in his cushioned seat, Dr. Aham sipped his hazelnut brew and said, "I've never been one for grand speeches, let us proceed."

All about the Muon Collider Control Bridge technicians drifted with each step as they half-walked, half-floated to their stations. Almost entirely composed of ice, Zisutra's gravity was more a suggestion than a hard fact, and while his team was well adapted to micro-g life, Aham had grown up in the heavy embrace of Mother Utu. He longed for the day when he could drink his coffee out of something other than a plastic bulb.

"Doctor, magnetic collars are locked. Beam lines are calibrated. Reactors Three through Thirteen are online."

Dr. Aham nodded thoughtfully. He couldn't fail to note the swell beneath his assistant's calm words, but she certainly had the right to be excited. Lifetimes of calculations , decades of labor, trillions of dollars spent--all fused now for this one moment. Today, they made history.

"Well, let's get this over with," Aham said. "Engage!"

Kilometers beneath their habitat, the hum of particle accelerators sprouted fissures among the surrounding ice, setting the whole moon to a faint hum. Even as he took another squeeze of his coffee, the doctor knew untold quadrillions of muons were being raced ever closer to c. No mean feat, seeing as muons had a half-life measured in the millionths of a second. Transmitted numbers ran through his hardtac lenses. He smiled at the results.

The Muon Collider Ring was by an order of magnitude the largest structure ever built off Utu. Over a thousand kilometers in diameter, it ran the circumferenceof Zisutra, and in theory could accelerate subatomic particles to 99.99999% the speed of light. Or even past that, if this experiment bore fruit. Faster-than-light travel. The dream of a millennium.

The assistant smiled and turned to Aham. Her orange eyes sparkled with display readings, her ears flexed. Such a pretty girl, though much too young for him. "It's working," she said, telling him what he already knew. "Timmuz's magnetosphere is aiding in the acceleration."

Aham nodded. He himself had worked on that part of the equation, and the math doesn't lie. He knew the gas giant would do its part, give the muons the extra needed push. Why else would they build the accelerator out here in outskirts of colonized space?

"Impact in three, two, one--" the assistant said.

The humming stopped. That was unexpected. Dr. Aham was about to ask what happened when suddenly he fell into his cushioned seat and an invisible giant pressed down on his chest and his arms and his legs and he tried to cry out but his ribcage had shattered and his hardtacs pressed into his eyes which popped like grapes into the backs of his sockets.

Pain. Darkness. Before sound died as well he heard the metallic groan as the Muon Collider Control Center collapsed like a tin can around him, followed by the hiss of escaping atmosphere.
***
Image
Commissioner Biluda rode the small autocart from the her station office to the "village," such as it was. Before and behind her, the grassy, gorgeously forested landscape curled upwards into a full, wide band half of a kilometer across. The Mashda wasn't the biggest space-hab in the Solar System, but it was certainly the orbiting around Timmuz. Bigger than it needed to be. With only five thousand souls, most of the prefab buildings were vacant, and while in a few years that wouldn't be the case, for now Biluda could enjoy the quaint, small-towny feel.

A projected image of her deputy, Dagrim appeared in corner of her vision. "Ma'am, check your tacks. We're getting reports . . ." He trailed off, his leaf-green pupils shimmering as his own hardtacs fed him additional information. "Oh, sweet Sedu," he said.

Biluda repressed a sigh. "This is my day off. What is it?" she said as she, with a few practiced thoughts, brought up the police-feed on own HUD. Twenty or so messages flashed along the bottom of her vision. She sped read through the report summaries, but her mind locked on the suspended image from a freighter floating in front of her: a million chunks of ice, spinning and tumbling in a compact yet rapidly expanding debris cloud.

"Sweet Sedu is right," she said. "That's Zisutra?"

Dagrim nodded quickly. The points of his ears jiggled nervously. "The moon ripped itself apart. But that's . . . there's more."

"Shit," she said, stepping out of the autocart into the eerily empty market square. Her gut sank. Poor Dr. Aham. Hell, poor hundred or so scientists who just had their lives snuffed out. But she knew the doctor. Nice guy. Doggedly, she walked across the square's well-manicured lawn into the village tavern. "How did this happen?"

The deputy seemed not to hear her. "The net's down," he said. "The system-wide net, I mean. We're not getting any data-streams from Utu or Ramman or Kingu or anywhere outside the Timmuz moon system."

"Interference?" Biluda asked. Inside the tavern, she saw a crowd around on the game tables. Along the walls, a few of the holoscreens displayed: No Signal. A few of the patrons nodded at her, raising their pipes in salute. Nothing was amiss for them.

"I don't think so, ma'am," Dagrim said, but already she was reading the high-priority message that had flashed across her tacs. The message was accompanied by a short video feed from a telescope on Namuzu Station. She saw the same familiar ringed sphere that she saw every day. The planet was small, though, and looked very far away.

"You're watching the video," Dagrim said. It wasn't a question.

"That's Timmuz," she said. Her gut sank farther. A mistake. Sensor errors. It has to be. She sat at a bar stool and held up a finger to the barkeep.

"It appears to be Timmuz," Dagrim said, "but that planet is nearly three billion kilometers away. On the far side of Timmuz's orbit, I might add." His tone grew giddy. His face was being captured by a camera in his hand terminal, and it shook back and forth as he looked around as if searching for eavesdroppers.

The barkeep, a rather portly man of Penzer ethnicity, passed her her usual cold cider. He seemed to catch that something was wrong, but she simply accepted the mug and stepped outside. On the far side of Mashda's central drum, a great rectangular window a score of meters across showed the same old gas giant in all her ringed, cloud-banded glory. Biluda compared it with the nearly identical image of in the telescope video. Another Timmuz. The Solar System now had two Timmuzes.

"What about Utu?" she heard herself say. Her head seemed to float, and her legs felt unsteady. Timmuz slid slowly to the side as Mashda's made it's gradual spin. "Is there nothing from home?" she asked.

The deputy hesitated. He grinned slightly, as if simple befuddlement had won out over fear. "We've got something," he said. "Lots of things, actually. But the formats are weird, alien. Primitive. I'm forwarding you one of the transmissions. It's audio, we think. One of the stronger signals right now. Can't make heads or tales of the language, though."

A static-ripped sound accompanied with alien speech filled her ears:
***
Biluda and Dagrim belong to an alternate humanity, a species of hominid that, due to a point of divergence millions of years ago, evolved into a species similar to homo sapiens but not quite. On average, they are slightly shorter and more slender of build. Due to a genetic quirk, they have ears that appear somewhat pointed, and they have inhumanly tilted eyes. They look a bit like Skyrim elves, with of course variations on skin tone and facial features.

Image
Image


In a "broad-stroke" sense, their history is similar to our own. They've had bloody wars and ages of invention and revolution. They've had awe-inspiring leaders, holy men, genocidal maniacs. Pick anyone in history, you'll find a parallel in the elves.

On this Earth/Utu, they first landed on the moon four centuries ago and they are currently in the midst of colonizing the solar system. And now, to them, the planet Saturn/Timmuz and all her moons simply vanished.

Which leads to this ISOT scenario.

The date is December 24th, 1968. A few hours earlier, Apollo 8 has just orbited the moon and broadcast its famous "Genesis reading." Suddenly a "second Saturn" appears in the orbit opposite of where it should be. Among the planet's moons, 24,365 human "elves" live in various colonies and space habitats. Their technology is very advanced but "hard" -- no FTL drives or communication, no artificial gravity, no physics defying super-weapons. They don't even have "hard" artificial intelligence (though they do have experimental bio-computers which, if advanced enough, could be sentient). Advanced medicine has eliminated old age and virtually all diseases. Cybernetic/biotech augmentation is commonplace. Their economy and politics could best be described as 'almost post-scarcity democratic socialism.' They are generally peaceful, but while they are theoretically self-sufficient, the sudden loss of trade with Utu is going to hurt.

They have no warships, but a few vessels are equipped with rail-guns and missiles for noncombat purposes. And of course, if it came to a war, the elves could always drop rocks. Though they'd be loath to do so.

The elves can get to earth in a little over two weeks.

How will this effect Earth politics? What about space exploration? The cold war? What a headache. I bet President Johnson is glad he'll be out of office in a few weeks. Have fun, Nixon!

Also, the "new" Saturn's orbit is unstable, though it'll be 932 years before the two Saturns collide. Hopefully that'll be enough time to think of something. Anyone with the necessary math skills know what would happen here?

Now what?

BTW: Zisustra was Tethys, and is now and addendum to Elf-Saturn's rings.

TL;DR: The planet Saturn from an advanced elf-race timeline is ISOT'd to 1968. The Solar System now has two Saturns on opposite ends of the orbit, one of which has 24,000 elves in colonies and space stations. What hilarities ensue?
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Simon_Jester »

I'm not analyzing all this right now, but...

There is nothing we can reasonably do in a thousand years to prevent Saturn-A from crashing into Saturn-B. Planets are too big to deflect easily, and gas giants are so big it's basically impossible as far as I can tell. We're kind of boned, because not only will this be disastrous for the poor space elves around Saturn-B, it will also cause collateral damage to stuff getting flung all over the solar system by the collision.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Elheru Aran »

Are you basically asking us to vet your writing or something? Because that's what it smells like.

That said. Elves are boned in the long term. Their best options are probably to work out a mutually beneficial trade agreement slash resettlement with Earth. They will have the temporary upper hand thanks to higher technology, but that's about it. Knowing there's a for-real alien race out there will give the human race strong motivation to expand out into space.

Having another gas giant in the system is going to make things interesting, but probably not for a few hundred years or so; I really don't know how much dropping a Saturn-size gas giant into a planetary system is going to screw up things. Mashing two of them together in 900+ years is going to make some fireworks, though, but people 'now' won't care about that.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Simon_Jester »

Yes. It's highly unlikely that the colonies around Saturn could be truly self-sufficient for any length of time. So the space-elf-people have a pressing need to resettle closer to Earth and establish trading relations. A great deal depends on what material technology they DO have the ability to replicate. Take, for example, electricity- assume the space elves have fusion reactors or whatever.

In real life, a settlement of 25000 people would be almost helpess to replicate things like major power plants. In which case having far more advanced power generation than the neighbors doesn't help them much because there's only one of it and you needed it for the things you were already using it for.

On the other hand, depending on how much automated manufacturing the space-elves have, maybe they can build their own fusion plants or whatever, given the raw materials and blueprints and maybe a few components that are hopefully stockpiled in Saturn orbit.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Borgholio »

I'm not sure that two gas giants merging will be as catastrophic as, say, two terrestrial worlds merging. It's mostly gas afterall, and the rocky cores are relatively small. I would be more worried about the debris from the rings or moons being flung out due to gravitational disturbances. Some of those moons are bigger than Mercury so we would need to watch out for them. One thing to consider as well is if two Saturns merging would create enough mass to collapse into a dwarf star? The merged planet would be bigger than Jupiter (I think) and Jupiter is already a borderline star as it is.

Regarding politics, the Elves would have to make deals and fast. Trade their tech in exchange for a place on Earth to call their own...or perhaps an orbital colony with support from the surface. I'm sure they could make a deal with an industrialized space power such as the US or the Soviets. If they grasp our politics, however, they'll probably want to trade evenly with UN member nations instead of striking exclusive deals that could trigger World War 3. Maybe license out some of their miracle cures to major drug companies or patent designs for their advanced powerplants (whether or not they can actually build them at this point) and license those out too. Overall they could make a great deal of money to support their colony.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by madd0ct0r »

It's not just gas and enough moons and ring debrie to remap every Rocky planet. There's also a ton of kinetic energy and rotational kinetic energy that has to go somewhere
its a very nasty chaotic system to predict.

Given they in opposite orbits, can anyone tell why they'd collide
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Borgholio »

It sounds to me like they orbit the same direction just on opposite sides of the sun. Since it won't be a head-on collision, there will be less kinetic energy to deal with.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Batman »

From what I can tell, they are in opposite positions in the 'same' orbit and slowly but slowly but surely heading for a collision-which is, assuming it's astrophysically possible to begin with without making a mess of the solar system from the word 'Go', which I don't feel qualified to comment on, definitely a Bad Thing.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by LadyTevar »

It's not going to be just the Sun's gravity working on Timmuz, it's going to be Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune as well. The Sun is already orbiting a barycenter with Jupiter, causing it to wobble (which is how we learned to look for exo-planets). Adding an additional planetary mass the size of Saturn will disrupt that barycenter, and the entire Solar System will be affected as the Sun suddenly has to compensate. Solar emmisions, X-class Flares, "sun-quakes", we have no clue what it could cause. It might even affect the balance of fusion within the Sun, and jump-start the Red Supergiant phase.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Simon_Jester »

I don't think Saturn's gravity would be enough to seriously alter the sun's internal dynamics. The tidal effect on the sun due to Saturn's gravity is extremely small, and it's the tidal effect here that matters, not the actual gravitational force exerted by the planet.

The sun is a main sequence star, and the reason the main sequence is the main sequence is that it's a relatively stable combination of temperature and pressure states that is not sensitive to minor perturbations.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by JMHthe3rd »

Simon_Jester wrote:I'm not analyzing all this right now, but...

There is nothing we can reasonably do in a thousand years to prevent Saturn-A from crashing into Saturn-B. Planets are too big to deflect easily, and gas giants are so big it's basically impossible as far as I can tell. We're kind of boned, because not only will this be disastrous for the poor space elves around Saturn-B, it will also cause collateral damage to stuff getting flung all over the solar system by the collision.
Well, I don't know about the technical feasibility, but in Larry Niven's World Out of Time Uranus is moved via a gigantic pulse engine that uses the gas giant's atmosphere as fuel. The lower end of the tube stays lit to keep the engine "afloat," while the end outside produces thrust to push against the atmosphere. Rinse, repeat.

But then, this isn't something the Saturnines are going to build anytime soon.

I've just downloaded something called the Universal Sandbox and I'm seeing what happens when I dump a second Saturn on the far side of its orbit. The simulation's been running for 50 years and so far nothing catastrophic's happened . . . hmm, I take that back. It's now been 300 years and Saturn-2 is definitely "catching up" with her twin. I'll let it run for a while and see what happens.
Elheru Aran wrote:Are you basically asking us to vet your writing or something? Because that's what it smells like.
This was just a scenario that popped into my head. I just finished reading John Birmingham's Weapons of Choice in which a UN naval fleet from 2021 gets ISOT'd to June 2nd, 1942, right before the Battle of Midway. I kind of played around with that general idea, and the narrative aspect of this ISOT reflects some of the tropes commonly associated with the ISOT genre. Like Eric Flint's 1632 and SM Stirling's Nantucket series, the Saturnine Elves are essentially a non-industrial "small town" transported to more primitive world. I decided against just having them come from the future, because I think their lack of shared history with the humans adds to their "otherness."
That said. Elves are boned in the long term. Their best options are probably to work out a mutually beneficial trade agreement slash resettlement with Earth. They will have the temporary upper hand thanks to higher technology, but that's about it. Knowing there's a for-real alien race out there will give the human race strong motivation to expand out into space.
Even if the Saturnines give every indication they're peaceful, they're still a threat neither the United States or Soviet Union can counter. What if they decided to bombard Earth from orbit? Or drop dino-killers? Or hell, even just threaten to? The humans need to get some pieces in the game. Space needs to be weaponized ASAP. As another poster on the SB forum pointed out, we should expect to see these become reality:

ImageImage

Project Orion. Essentially, nuclear bomb propelled spacecraft, a quick and dirty way of getting heavy things into orbit. The LBTB treaty of 1963 put an end to these proposals, but back then they didn't foresee Saturnine Elves from Another Dimension.

The Apollo Program is aborted--why spend billions so a couple of astronauts can spend a few hours prancing about around on the moon? And the US pulls out of Vietnam. Who cares about some Southeast Asian jungle country? Those space battleships and orbital weapons platforms and lunar missile bases aren't going to built themselves, and they aren't going to be cheap. Better tighten the belt and prioritize.

That being said, it'll probably won't be until at least the late seventies before even the most modest Orion ships begin launching. Missile satellites will be up before that. In the meantime, however, space shuttles will arrive sooner, even if only because the Saturnines need us to have them (more on this below).
Simon_Jester wrote:Yes. It's highly unlikely that the colonies around Saturn could be truly self-sufficient for any length of time. So the space-elf-people have a pressing need to resettle closer to Earth and establish trading relations. A great deal depends on what material technology they DO have the ability to replicate. Take, for example, electricity- assume the space elves have fusion reactors or whatever.

In real life, a settlement of 25000 people would be almost helpess to replicate things like major power plants. In which case having far more advanced power generation than the neighbors doesn't help them much because there's only one of it and you needed it for the things you were already using it for.

On the other hand, depending on how much automated manufacturing the space-elves have, maybe they can build their own fusion plants or whatever, given the raw materials and blueprints and maybe a few components that are hopefully stockpiled in Saturn orbit.
Since Utu/Earth was only a few weeks away, the Saturn colonies had little need for shipyards or advanced industry. They have only modest manufacturing capabilities. They can mine and smelt. They have a reasonable supply of spare parts and can repair and perform the usual maintenance on their ships and worker-drones. They did have the extensive orbital factories that built the Muon Collider Ring . . . but these were orbiting Zisustra/Tethys and for the most part were destroyed by flying chucks of ice. They may be able to salvage something useful from the debris, however.

As for food, they have enough hydroponic farms to keep their people fed, but only just. The elves better like protein bars and algae, because once the goods from Utu run out that's what's left on the menu. Advanced medicine can be fairly easily synthesized, and while not all of their equipment is readily replaceable, it's not something they have to worry about for the near-term.

The first decade or so will be hardest, and a catastrophe could doom them, but after that they should have build up their industry enough to make small spacecraft, fission reactors and the like. Building new fusion reactors and deuterium/helium-3 pulse drives will be a little trickier, but it's a matter of making the tools to make the tools to make the tools, and that just takes time. Constructing mega-scale structures like the 1500 meter long Mashda (the de facto "capital" of the "Saternine Commonwealth") will be outside their capabilities for a while yet.
Borgholio wrote:I'm not sure that two gas giants merging will be as catastrophic as, say, two terrestrial worlds merging. It's mostly gas afterall, and the rocky cores are relatively small.
On these sorts of scales, it doesn't really matter if its gas or solid. The impact will release a lot of heat. The end result will likely just be one really big gas giant--once all hot gasses calm down, which will take a long, long time. But I agree that the moons may be the bigger problem.
One thing to consider as well is if two Saturns merging would create enough mass to collapse into a dwarf star? The merged planet would be bigger than Jupiter (I think) and Jupiter is already a borderline star as it is.
Not even close. At least as far as my internet research has led me to believe, you'd need about 75-85 Jupiter masses to make a brown dwarf.
Regarding politics, the Elves would have to make deals and fast. Trade their tech in exchange for a place on Earth to call their own...or perhaps an orbital colony with support from the surface. I'm sure they could make a deal with an industrialized space power such as the US or the Soviets. If they grasp our politics, however, they'll probably want to trade evenly with UN member nations instead of striking exclusive deals that could trigger World War 3. Maybe license out some of their miracle cures to major drug companies or patent designs for their advanced powerplants (whether or not they can actually build them at this point) and license those out too. Overall they could make a great deal of money to support their colony.
I agree. Once the Saturnines get past the language barrier, they start to make deals. Primitive as we may be, we dwarf them in industry potential. The problem is we're on the bottom of a gravity well, and ferrying goods up with shuttles is expensive.

So they have two things on their agenda, both short term and long term:
Short Term
Image
Aid NASA (and the Soviets! Best not play favorites) in designing a cheap, reusable shuttle with off-the-shelf technology. Given that the elves have been at this for a few more centuries than us, they can presumably come up with something better than our space shuttle. Once this is done, the elves don't have to put wear and tear on their limited supply of shuttles and instead can pay us to fly the goods up to their "mothership" (a repurposed mining vessel). Still, that's not ideal.
Long Term
Image
In 1970, the Saturnine Commonwealth buys property in Brazil along the equator. Using funds from medical, industrial and computer patents, they pay human laborers to start construction for the base of a space elevator. This is a huge undertaking, and at the earliest won't be done until the early 21st century. The high-tensile nanofibers for the cable can only be created (or "grown") in a zero-g environment (and as of 1970, the elves aren't even close to being able to do this--but they're working on it!), but once this is completed, material trade with earth will be much, much easier.

As for Timmuz and Saturn's fate, I'm not sure, but in my Universal Simulator it's been going on for 500 years and Timmuz ("Saturn 33") is defiantly closing the distance:

Image

This thing is neat. I'm going to have a lot of fun with it.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Borgholio »

Not even close. At least as far as my internet research has led me to believe, you'd need about 75-85 Jupiter masses to make a brown dwarf.
That's the high end of the scale. On the low end of the scale you are only about a dozen or so Jupiter masses (and that even is theoretical because we don't know how to draw the line between a giant planet and a small brown dwarf yet. However, the point is moot. I did the math and two Saturns is still only about 60% the mass of Jupiter so it's not an issue. :)
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by madd0ct0r »

speaking of jupiter, depending where it is compared to the collision, we can probably rely on it to sweep out most of the debris that isn't already hurtling inwards. If the spread of thrown stuff is equally randomly distributed, it's more likely to be thrown outwards then in (since the angle from the collision point to the 2 furthest edges of earth's orbit << 180,. Doing some very rough calcs, it's like 1.6% of the debris will pass within earth's orbit. The Sun's effect on trajectories will make that much higher, but we might get lucky with jupiter sweeping most of the inward bound stuff up, possibly mars too)
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Simon_Jester »

PLEASE REFORMAT YOUR GIGANTIC IMAGES.

You've only been on the forum for two years so you may not know this, but very wide images break formatting on people's monitors, especially if their monitors are not widescreen jumbotron things. We don't need to see your illustrations badly enough that it makes it worth having to scroll side to side to read each line of text.
JMHthe3rd wrote:Well, I don't know about the technical feasibility, but in Larry Niven's World Out of Time Uranus is moved via a gigantic pulse engine that uses the gas giant's atmosphere as fuel. The lower end of the tube stays lit to keep the engine "afloat," while the end outside produces thrust to push against the atmosphere. Rinse, repeat.

But then, this isn't something the Saturnines are going to build anytime soon.
If they can't, we can't either. It's the kind of thing you build when you've already got most of a Dyson shell's worth of sunpower satellites in orbit and are seriously thinking about dismantling Mercury for building materials. The space-elves weren't there yet as a civilization.
Elheru Aran wrote:Are you basically asking us to vet your writing or something? Because that's what it smells like.
This was just a scenario that popped into my head. I just finished reading John Birmingham's Weapons of Choice in which a UN naval fleet from 2021 gets ISOT'd to June 2nd, 1942, right before the Battle of Midway. I kind of played around with that general idea, and the narrative aspect of this ISOT reflects some of the tropes commonly associated with the ISOT genre. Like Eric Flint's 1632 and SM Stirling's Nantucket series, the Saturnine Elves are essentially a non-industrial "small town" transported to more primitive world. I decided against just having them come from the future, because I think their lack of shared history with the humans adds to their "otherness."
Although honestly this is offset by the... well, the WOW COOL SPACE ELVES aspect. I think that intentionally making them "like the elves from Skyrim" and using one of the most overused cliches of fantasy writing plus one of the most pop-culturey video games of the past few years... not a good combination.

Also, the problem here is that it's not clear whether you're asking us to vet the technical quality of your writing, or the consequences that would evolve in the story.
That said. Elves are boned in the long term. Their best options are probably to work out a mutually beneficial trade agreement slash resettlement with Earth. They will have the temporary upper hand thanks to higher technology, but that's about it. Knowing there's a for-real alien race out there will give the human race strong motivation to expand out into space.
Even if the Saturnines give every indication they're peaceful, they're still a threat neither the United States or Soviet Union can counter. What if they decided to bombard Earth from orbit? Or drop dino-killers? Or hell, even just threaten to? The humans need to get some pieces in the game. Space needs to be weaponized ASAP. As another poster on the SB forum pointed out, we should expect to see these become reality:
Very debateable. I don't know if you ever found this out, but nuclear pulse propulsion has problems. Some of them are major unsolved engineering issues (building the shock absorbers, making sure the pusher plate isn't ablated away by point blank nuclear initiations). Others are social issues (this is the height of the Cold War, both sides just got done pushing a test ban treaty to avoid dumping even more fallout into the atmosphere, neither side is going to be remotely inclined to trust the other with a big flying gun platform that is by its very definition armed with hundreds of nuclear bombs).

It is more likely that the Earth powers will seek to use their political leverage over the space-elves (we have the only long-term viable biosphere in the solar system, and the only population base that could conceivably sustain your industry)

One reason "Isle in the Sea of Time" stories tend to strand modern protagonists in primitive times is that in primitive times, local power blocs would be less capable of a systematic, coordinated, organized response to the sudden appearance of a handful of technologically advanced foreigners in their midst. They might not be stupid or easy pushovers, but they're still limited in terms of communications and the list of 'thinkable' concepts, prone to mistake high technology for magic and so on.

Here, the space-elves have to contend with powers that are much more organized and capable of communicating with each other, and that have the real humans' experience of what happens when a handful of advanced people come into contact with a larger mass of primitive people.
...spacecraft, a quick and dirty way of getting heavy things into orbit. The LBTB treaty of 1963 put an end to these proposals, but back then they didn't foresee Saturnine Elves from Another Dimension.
The Apollo Program is aborted--why spend billions so a couple of astronauts can spend a few hours prancing about around on the moon?
It's too late to save significant money. All the hardware for Apollo has already been purchased. Also, the hardware and development for Apollo (including the Saturn V) represents the best prospect for putting materiel into orbit in the foreseeable future. Because IF development of Orion ever does get going, the system is (literally) unlikely to get off the ground before 1985-1990 at the earliest.

Until then, refinement of chemical rocket launch infrastructure is the only game in town. NASA won't be shutting down Apollo, they'll be scaling up their launch infrastructure and developing post-Apollo design concepts. The goal may have more to do with orbital construction than with deep-space exploration, but it's still there.

Trust me, Orion drive isn't going to work like Footfall, it's not something you can build on the fly and seriously expect it to work. Either there will be numerous disasters in the testing phase (each of them causing massive radioactive fallout on Earth), or there will be a long, long period of prototyping and testing, over and above the multiple years of negotiation required to get the go-ahead to do start serious work on it at all. Probably the project can't be completed until semimodern computer modeling software becomes available in the '80s and '90s, I think.
And the US pulls out of Vietnam. Who cares about some Southeast Asian jungle country? Those space battleships and orbital weapons platforms and lunar missile bases aren't going to built themselves, and they aren't going to be cheap. Better tighten the belt and prioritize.
What makes you think the US will just randomly put its priorities on hold that way? Vietnam had more to do with national pride than with anything else. Nixon MAY try to de-escalate the war before it causes further frying of the budget, but it'll be a gradual thing.

[Also note that the importance of Vietnam was, not surprisingly, exaggerated in the minds of American policymakers in the late '60s and early '70s. It wasn't just worthless jungle to them]
That being said, it'll probably won't be until at least the late seventies before even the most modest Orion ships begin launching. Missile satellites will be up before that. In the meantime, however, space shuttles will arrive sooner, even if only because the Saturnines need us to have them (more on this below).
Far more likely that we will see mass serial production of Saturn hardware. In many ways, for pure ability to chuck cargo into orbit, the Shuttle is inferior to a Saturn V, it costs more to make repeated Shuttle launches ferrying the goods into space. The advantage of the Space Shuttle was that it had a crew and life support system on hand so that it could do things like service satellites or assemble space station modules in orbit.

Note that this is true in general. If you have a situation where an emergency demands that you MUST do as much as you can, as fast as you can... you mobilize, in the military sense of the word. When you mobilize, it is almost always more cost-effective and practical to do it with slight variations on the equipment you already have than to develop entirely new equipment. Because R&D is expensive, risky, and in many cases you can't force the learning curve no matter how much money you throw at it.
Since Utu/Earth was only a few weeks away, the Saturn colonies had little need for shipyards or advanced industry. They have only modest manufacturing capabilities. They can mine and smelt. They have a reasonable supply of spare parts and can repair and perform the usual maintenance on their ships and worker-drones. They did have the extensive orbital factories that built the Muon Collider Ring . . . but these were orbiting Zisustra/Tethys and for the most part were destroyed by flying chucks of ice. They may be able to salvage something useful from the debris, however.

As for food, they have enough hydroponic farms to keep their people fed, but only just. The elves better like protein bars and algae, because once the goods from Utu run out that's what's left on the menu. Advanced medicine can be fairly easily synthesized, and while not all of their equipment is readily replaceable, it's not something they have to worry about for the near-term.

The first decade or so will be hardest, and a catastrophe could doom them, but after that they should have build up their industry enough to make small spacecraft...
HOW?

This isn't just a question of being able to dig minerals out of the ground (or sky as the case may be). There are a lot of components to modern technology which are very specialized and which a frontier community has literally zero need for. Mining and smelting aren't even close to all that's required; do they have their own semiconductor fabricators, or whatever high-tech equivalent they use to make computer hardware? Do they have engineers, in the sense of hardware design, who know enough to design their own equipment? Can they somehow do all this before existing equipment starts to break down?

Remember, this isn't just a case of calmly 'ascending the tech tree.' It's about whether there are physically enough humans (or humanoids, whatever) present to learn and master all the required specialties, of which there are many, before the lack of those specialties causes total collapse.

I have heard people doubt that even Steam Age technological infrastructure could be sustained indefinitely on a population base of 20-25 thousand, let alone futuristic super-Space Age infrastructure.
Aid NASA (and the Soviets! Best not play favorites) in designing a cheap, reusable shuttle with off-the-shelf technology. Given that the elves have been at this for a few more centuries than us, they can presumably come up with something better than our space shuttle.
The material science to replicate this may not be easily available. One of the reasons the shuttle was what it was is that that was the best that could be built at the time- a titanium-shielded, slimmer-winged version might have performed incrementally better but it'd still be basically the Space Shuttle, with a cost to LEO measured in thousands of dollars per pound.

Advances in material science directly correlate to advances in space launch capability; we're only now beginning to get close to designing an SSTO-type spaceplane, and that's largely thanks to drastic advances in our ability to make such a spacecraft light.

If the space-elves have enough material scientists and chemical engineers to set up their own steel mills (or, more to the point, foundries for making high-end composite materials) that changes a bit... but to a large extent they'd still be the ones doing the work of building the things.
In 1970, the Saturnine Commonwealth buys property in Brazil along the equator. Using funds from medical, industrial and computer patents, they pay human laborers to start construction for the base of a space elevator. This is a huge undertaking, and at the earliest won't be done until the early 21st century. The high-tensile nanofibers for the cable can only be created (or "grown") in a zero-g environment (and as of 1970, the elves aren't even close to being able to do this--but they're working on it!), but once this is completed, material trade with earth will be much, much easier.
They may know the broad outlines of the theory, but do they have enough chemical engineers and material scientists to oversee and manage quality control on such a facility?
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Elheru Aran »

For getting to orbit, there's not much that can beat a big old rocket in terms of expediency. Saturn V was arguably the apex of American orbital-launch capacity. It's the same rocket that flung Skylab into orbit, and that was no shrimp.

Project Orion is a boondoggle if you're trying to fire it back up in 1968. You'll get a better result by ramping up Saturn production and using it to lift the necessary components and resources into orbit. Orion may be of some use once the technology is worked out, but it's more likely they'll be a bit more conventional although certainly the possibility exists that some form of nuclear power would be used for propulsion in space.

In the late 60s and early 70s, plastics are just starting to enter their own. Sure, they've existed for a while but they're either heavy, bulky formulations or flimsy coloured stuff. Anything sturdy is metal for the most part, using aluminum or titanium if it has to be light. Composite materials are just starting to appear. So a reliable re-usable CHEAP surface-to-orbit vehicle isn't really going to happen at this point.

Essentially what it boils down to is that the space-elves are between a rock and a hard place, and the humans aren't THAT far below them in terms of technological parity. The humans also have nothing to lose except the possibility of acquiring some advancements in technology; the elves are screwed in the long run. It's really kind of a reversal of the usual ISOT scenario, which you could play with if you went writing upon this background-- a higher-tech race losing out to a lower-tech one.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Simon_Jester »

Nuclear engines (as in, nuclear thermal rockets, that sort of thing) are certain to be used for deep-space propulsion. The catch is that they're basically incapable of providing 1g acceleration, so they cannot be used to land and take off from Earth.

So far, nobody's come up with a more efficient and attainable way to get cargo into orbit than the Big Dumb Booster. Saturn V, Energia, notional concepts like Sea Dragon.

There are lots of ideas for expensive infrastructure megaprojects with a lot of unsolved technical problems that would help (launch loops).

And there are technologies we understand but haven't seriously explored (laser launch systems are my favorite).

But there's nothing where you could just plunk down a trillion dollars and say "I want you hurling massive amounts of stuff into space within five to eight years, no excuses, no exceptions, just do it!" other than the Big Dumb Booster. Because for all the alternatives, there are real risks associated with screwing up or having the R&D turn out harder than we expected.
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A dear friend of mine has explored this at some length recently, come to think of it. One point that occurs to me is that if you have major space-based colonies or bases that require a staff measured in the thousands, you do need some kind of reusable shuttle-type vehicle to ferry passengers up to orbit and back.

Passengers are low-mass but their life support is bulky, so most of the cost of a passenger shuttle is in the vehicle itself. Having to write off an expendable capsule-type vehicle every time you launch passengers makes it prohibitively expensive to keep sending hundreds of astronauts into space every year, while rotating hundreds of astronauts back to Earth at the end of their tour of duty.

Over the long haul, both the shuttlecraft and the Big Dumb Boosters should be as reusable as possible.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by JMHthe3rd »

Excellent posts! Thank you.

As for my motive for posting this, I just wanted to bounce the idea around and see what others think. I might post the timeline on alternatehistory.com once I develop a better idea as to how this scenario would play out. These criticisms certainly help. I'll reply to them when I have more time. One aspect I really should consider is that a lot of the elves are going to want to immigrate to Earth. Sitting in tin cans eating algae will get old fast. This migration, if allowed, will further damped the elves' space industry.

As for the over-sized images, I agree that the two Orion pics and last one are way too big . . . but unfortunately this forum doesn't allow me to edit my posts. If a mod could do that for me I'd appreciate it.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Simon_Jester »

Honestly, I think the entire space-elf population is likely to relocate to Earth orbit or near it. Not much incentive to stay around Saturn, there's just no there there. Nothing that can't be found more profitably closer to Sol.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by madd0ct0r »

Rings of Saturn have a fine collection of elements. Must be less delta g to harvest them then the earth surface. Hydrogen also.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Simon_Jester »

OK, to be fair, you're right, it's worth keeping up a mining installation or six in or near the rings, and maybe some kind of dedicated scooper for the hydrogen atmosphere.

But at the same time, that's about ALL that really belongs out there.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by madd0ct0r »

From their point of view, once a bit of research has taken place, the Earth seems locked on a course of anatogisim between two nuclear powers. Maybe they went through that stage themselves, or maybe they are so advanced because billions of elf hours didn't go into refining ways to kill each other.
Either way, two things speak to the advantage of staying near Saturn in the short term.
1) status quo needs less resources then shifting everyone across space.
2) much less chance of being wiped out when the human race finally go to war. Sitting in LEO = sitting ducks to ICBMS or even orbital denial shrapnel weapons. Even if nukes are sent their way in a general war type thing, you've got a few weeks to prepare a shield/dodge, instead of a few minutes

Possibly the elves could bluff their way into orbit by threatening to shoot down any missiles launched by anyone - Pax Timmus. From their point of view keeping earth available as a lifeboat might be worth the investment
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by Simon_Jester »

Good points you have there.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by madd0ct0r »

question.

Could the elves build a 2nd installation on out our Saturn and blip that out of this solar system?
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by phred »

madd0ct0r wrote:From their point of view, once a bit of research has taken place, the Earth seems locked on a course of anatogisim between two nuclear powers. Maybe they went through that stage themselves, or maybe they are so advanced because billions of elf hours didn't go into refining ways to kill each other.
Either way, two things speak to the advantage of staying near Saturn in the short term.
1) status quo needs less resources then shifting everyone across space.
2) much less chance of being wiped out when the human race finally go to war. Sitting in LEO = sitting ducks to ICBMS or even orbital denial shrapnel weapons. Even if nukes are sent their way in a general war type thing, you've got a few weeks to prepare a shield/dodge, instead of a few minutes

Possibly the elves could bluff their way into orbit by threatening to shoot down any missiles launched by anyone - Pax Timmus. From their point of view keeping earth available as a lifeboat might be worth the investment
If they're really concerned about being attacked in earth orbit they can just set up shop around the moon. But they do need Earth because I don't think they can last too long as a purely space based society
Could the elves build a 2nd installation on out our Saturn and blip that out of this solar system?
I doubt it. It sounds like most of the people with the expertise were killed in the experiment.
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Re: Saturn in the Sea of Time: 1968 (An ISOT Scenario)

Post by madd0ct0r »

thinking about Pax Timmus.

There was a fair few sci-fi stories from that era that considered the result of the invention of something like a missile sheild - something that averted MAD for one side. The logical response was for the other side to launch an all-out preemptive attack.

Same here, if either side speculated the elves would give technological edge to the other, then doing unto others first makes sense.
If that knife-edge policy ridge is successfully traversed, and the elves claim they will shoot down any ICBM's that are launched, then the nuclear deterrent is gone.

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