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Quote of the Week: "A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within." - Will Durant, American historian (1885-1981)

RAR!: 2281 NCR Sent Back to 1846

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Panzersharkcat
PostPosted: 2012-02-17 02:44am 

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Joined: 2011-02-28 06:36am
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April 25, 1846, specifically, the first day of the Mexican-American War.

Because I'm the board's annoying fan-whore of the series, I decided to spice up the whole transporting nations back in time bit with a post-apocalyptic nation-state. The general rule is that areas sent back include anything not under the control of Caesar's Legion or anything from the DLCs at the beginning of Fallout: New Vegas. Nelson would not be sent back but Nipton would, as I wouldn't consider it under the Legion's control. Plus, the thought of trapping Vulpes Inculta there without a Legion to go back to makes me giggle a bit. How would the United States and Mexico react to the sudden appearance of a fairly powerful state in California and Nevada? Would the US try to coax the NCR into joining the Union and would the NCR try to go their own way? Would the Mexican-American War grind to a sudden halt due to the absolute WTF-ness of the situation? How would the Brotherhood of Steel or the Super Mutants react? I assume the transported 1846 people be easy prey for the Legion, given the population California at that time was much lower than the NCR's 700,000+ people. The 700,000 estimate was back in 2241 and I would guess it'd be up to around a million by 2281, give or take a hundred thousand. I also assume severe freaking out from the people of 1846 over mutated creatures like deathclaws and centaurs, not to mention Super Mutants or feral ghouls.
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Rabid
PostPosted: 2012-02-17 09:00pm 

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Joined: 2010-09-18 05:20pm
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Location: The Land Of Cheese
- Stimpaks & Hydra alone are a game changer clearly in favor of the NCR. Then add other chems to the mix and if you put the Great Khans on the assembly lines to churn out them you can create whole squads of drug-enhanced super-soldiers.
- Add in Ghouls and Super-mutants healed by radiations, in an environment where radiations are plenty.
- Very hostile environment in the NCR territories.
- A people already acclimated to crappy post-apocalyptic living conditions, who know how to survive in the aforementioned hostile environment.
- Modern firearms, powerful futuristic energy weapons, and the knowledge and ability to make more. There may be a weakness as far as artillery goes though, as it seems their manufacturing capabilities aren't enough yet to make cannons : judging by pre-war in-game posters, the Hoover Dam's AAA gun seems to predate the Great War, and apart from the Boomers no-one is seen using artillery except the legion, BUT only if you find a way to repair another old pre-war artillery piece.


I think there's no contest as to who is going to win if there's to be a fight. At least I can't see the NCR losing on its home turf.


Now, the thing is : NCR!California at the time of New Vegas' events is about to starve to death if nothing is done quickly to solve the growing pressure there's on the Republic's agriculture (Vault 22 quest). Given the NCR's general attitude of "manifest destiny", I have no doubt they will try to conquer the fertile plains of the Midwest, the Pacific Northwest or Canada's Central Plains to try to curb the impending famine.
However, as always, the NCR problem will be that it has really shitty logistical lines, and so it will be unable to quickly colonize these zones without over-extending itself. Or it will put inmates to work on creating railways and end up with another Powder Gangers problem...

If the NCR has the technological advantage, and, locally, the advantage of numbers, on a bigger scale it will be very difficult for it to reach the fertile zones without weakening itself. It is also, on the long term, really at risk of losing any war of attrition that could be launched against it, by either Mexico or the US.


On the long term, I don't see the NCR as willing or even able to accept rejoining the United States as a federated state. As I said earlier, they have this manifest destiny attitude than can only lead them to clash with anyone that can challenge their claims. However, trade may be possible, at least for a while : drugs against food. That's a deal I can easily envision them making.



A thing : I can easily see the NCR allying with the North against the South during the Civil War (if there's to be a Civil War) to fight slavery, as it seems to be a big no-no for the Republic. Though I think the NCR will be mostly trying to annex the South on the way...
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Rabid
PostPosted: 2012-02-17 09:16pm 

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Thinking about it :

The biggest problem the NCR has is its vulnerability to attrition warfare. The resources in NCR territories, natural and industrial, if plentiful by Fallout standards, are very scarce by any reasonable measure. Scavenging the ruins of the old world may help you have a short term boost, but 200 years old microfusion cells can only take you so far...

By the time the NCR will be able to exploit the Pacific Northwest & Vancouver for their agriculture (I'll asspull a guess and say it's likely to take someting around ten years), Mexico and the United States will have had time to mobilize a great army AND a logistical train, that if not enough to fight the NCR on its home territory, will be able to contain it there.


Also, contrary to the two other powers here, the NCR has no Navy as far as we know that could allow it to open commercial routes with the rest of the world. And except if they have salvaged shipyards in Dayglow (formerly San Diego) or want to use/cannibalize the Poseidon tanker in San Francisco, I don't think they have the industrial capacity to build anything really able to challenge the Navies of the time.
Though given Fallout weird tech base and general reliance on Mad SCIENCE!, we can't be sure of anything there...
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Panzersharkcat
PostPosted: 2012-02-17 09:39pm 

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The Khans might prefer to sell to the US or Mexico instead of NCR, though. Time transplants may not be enough to make them forget the enmity between the Khans and the NCR dating back all the way to Vault 15. The Brotherhood may prove troublesome, as well. One thing the NCR would have going for them is an air force, even if it's tiny by modern standards, as I believe it's canon that the Chosen One swiped vertibird plans from the Enclave and gave it to NCR and the Brotherhood. They should have limited capabilities with that. They can't exactly fly to Washington to insert a squad of Veteran Rangers or heavy troopers to capture the president or anything but they can try to do that to enemy camps against high-ranked officers. I don't think any weapons from the 1840s outside of cannons would dent the armor of a vertibird and I don't think they'd be accurate enough. Going off of that, they could also try attacking the wooden ships of the time with vertibirds as well. They might try to invite people in solve the population issue but without the attraction of gold, that would be problematic and might actually result in NCR citizens leaving barren California for more fertile lands in the midwest.
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Rabid
PostPosted: 2012-02-17 10:24pm 

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Oh, yes, that's also a problem.

In the Fallout verse, what keep people in the NCR is that they know it's literally the best (or at least the least worst) place to live in in the post-apocalyptic world.
But once people in the NCR learn that out there there's fertile land free of radiation and hostile wildlife (by Fallout standards), people are going to rush East, North and South to find a better life.

If the NCR doesn't find a way to retain a grip on their population, they run the risk of literally ending reigning on an empty, hostile land.


What we might see, maybe, is the NCR massively relocating its population to the Midwest, keeping active in California only the most major population centers and economic hubs. Something akin to the Gold Rush, only that instead of gold this time the main drive is fertile soil.




Edit : concerning the Khans, I wasn't picturing them as volunteering for the job... Knowing the darker sides of the NCR they could as well say fuck it and decide to do an exception on their "no slavery" rule with them.

Last edited by Rabid on 2012-02-17 10:32pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Rabid
PostPosted: 2012-02-17 10:31pm 

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Location: The Land Of Cheese
Also :

Vertibirds + Mini-nukes = "To whomever it may concern : please reconsider your battle tactics."
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Panzersharkcat
PostPosted: 2012-02-17 11:05pm 

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Taking the Khans would be a bit hard, but without the threat of the Legion, they should be able to afford the troops necessary to bring them in if necessary. Alternatively, that results in the Khans being wiped out and the survivors sabotaging drug making efforts. They probably could take the effort to bring down the Fiends as well. House is pretty much screwed, as his Securitron army is tucked away in Fortification Hill, which was not brought back to 1846. He may make a last stand and take out a good number of NCR troops, but without the upgrade and reinforcements from the Securitron Vault, he'll be done for, leaving Vegas solely under NCR rule. That'd be a money earner for NCR. They could also try to attract investors into building factories in the Mojave powered by Hoover Dam and Helios One. Without the threat of the Legion, they should be able to bring in more competent people to solve the issues with Helios One and take out the robotic security there.

As for populations, I suppose NCR could make a move to the northwest, as I don't think that was claimed yet by the US. They'd have to deal with the British, though, and any native groups still there. Perhaps if they offer equal rights to the tribes in exchange for being allowed to farm the land there and share the NCR's technology and protection, they'd get a decent sized number of troops to hold off American attempts at taking NCR land. The Gun Runners and Van Graffs and other caravan companies would probably appreciate the new business, too. Vertibirds with mini-nukes, missiles, Gatling lasers, and miniguns would probably be their answer to any incursions by opposing navies. NCR should also continue to try to coax the Boomers, especially if they get the tribes in the American northwest to join. Being able to recover the B-29 there would be a great boon to NCR's power and ability to keep the US and Mexico away. Just pay some tribute to the Boomers in the form of food or more ammo to not bomb NCR land. I'm also wondering a bit about the jets at Camp McCarran. Not sure if they'd have the engineering savvy to fix them or the necessary experience to train pilots.
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Sea Skimmer
PostPosted: 2012-02-17 11:43pm 

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Joined: 2002-07-03 11:49pm
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The problem is the population base is so low, dispersed and riddled with radioactive hazards. The NCR and associated bad guys could dominate the US west easily enough, but they aren’t going to easily expand further then that. They meanwhile optimistically have 40 years before the rest of the world can begin fielding smokeless powder weapons which seriously threaten them. This assumes the NCR can keep this technology secret, which is unlikely given how corrupt it is. Huge amounts of basic metalworking technology are also bound to leak into the rest of the world bit by bit. It would be very hard to deal with the rest of worlds industrial powers making smokeless powder artillery and machine guns whilst constantly plotting and attempting to seize more technology. The NRC would need to productionize aircraft and other heavy weapons to maintain an advantage, and this may not happen too easily. Even then that just pushes back the time to be overwhelmed.
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Panzersharkcat
PostPosted: 2012-02-18 12:06am 

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Yeah, I can buy the Gun Runners or the Van Graffs selling out NCR to the British Empire or the United States. Maybe union with the United States isn't too far-fetched, then? I do wonder if it'd be enough to drive the Brotherhood out of isolation, though.
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Sea Skimmer
PostPosted: 2012-02-18 12:44am 

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In the very long term a union seems possible, if too much bad blood is not spilled first. A non aggression pact is a lot more likely, but it would be very hard to hold back the desire of the US population to expand. The NCR would have serious problems absorbing settlers because they'd threaten to completely dilute its original population. The Brotherhood cult may just be wiped out, I don't see an organization like that thriving on a planet which is full of civilization and not wastelands while being the target of everyone on earth.
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Panzersharkcat
PostPosted: 2012-02-18 09:02pm 

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Except for people going to Vegas to blow away money and business using the more established and ridiculously durable power generation, I don't see people going into California. I figure NCR's problem would be the exact opposite. Oh, and everybody's problem would be keeping mutated creatures from spreading out to the non-irradiated areas.
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Rabid
PostPosted: 2012-02-19 10:29am 

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Joined: 2010-09-18 05:20pm
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You thought rabbits-in-Australia were a problem ? Well, meet molerats-in-America, then !

And bloatflies
And nightstalkers
And spore-carriers
And centaurs [*]
And deathclaws [**]


Welp. America's eco-system is fucked.


Also, isn't there some West-Tek- & Mariposa-brand FEV still floating around in the Californian air ? If it's the case, the next decades are going to be fun for the rest of America as everything will start to mutate...




Question : Given that Fallout exist in a different Universe than our own, with slightly different laws of physics, is the NCR transported to Fallout!1846, or RealLife!1846 ? I assume it's the former, 'cause otherwise the NCR (& the Brotherhood) would lose all their advanced techs (energy weapons, weird science computers, vertibirds fueled by MF cells, etc...), and be basically at the same level as the rest of the world technology-wise.



[*] it seems to me that centaurs thrives in a radiation-rich environment, which may have something to do with the fact that they are FEV-induced lifeforms (failed experiment of the Master's Super-Mutant program), and thus are healed and (maybe even) fed by radiations. I don't know how they would fare in a non-radioactive environment...

[**] I don't want to contemplate what will happen once deathclaws will migrate east and start hunting the great buffalo migrations... I can see the cow-boys in Texas shitting their pants, too.
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Rabid
PostPosted: 2012-02-19 11:34am 

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Joined: 2010-09-18 05:20pm
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I'm imagining right now the scenario of an NCR ambassador sent to DC with a Ranger detachment, and the culture shock between the post-apocalyptic survivors and the well-fed if technologically inferiors locals. That's pretty fun...


Radiation :

" What's this ? "
" It's a geiger counter, your Eminence. "
" What does it does ? "
" It detect radiations. "
" What is 'radiations' ? "
" Invisible things that can give you sicknesses, or even kill you. "
" Can you show me how it works ? "
" Without problem. "

* The ranger check the man of faith with the geiger counter, and it remain silent *

" You are clean of radiations, your Eminence. "
" And you ? "

* The ranger check himself for radiations, and the counter let out a slow whine *
* The priest give the ranger worried looks *

" Don't worry, that's nothing serious. At least we have treatments against it. "


Medical technologies :

* The NCR delegation is shown some random construction site, to show them the greatness of the Old World's engineering, when suddenly there's an incident and one of the workers is severely injured, with several limbs almost severed and a crushed thorax. *
* One of the Rangers immediately rush toward the man to play field medic, and give him a mix of stimpaks, med-x and hydra. *
* In a few minutes and to the astonishments of all present (with the exception of the NCR citizens), the limbs are fully healed, the thorax retrieve its normal configuration, and the man, if a bit shaky from the experience and the amount of drugs he has absorbed, is once again ready to continue his work. *
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Panzersharkcat
PostPosted: 2012-02-19 06:26pm 

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It's in Fallout!1846. I'm not sure about FEV floating around in California. I think it's mostly gone by now, though. Centaurs, like Super Mutants, will probably die out if they try to spread. Ooh, that reminds me. The NCR delegation could bring some Ghoul Rangers with them to show them what can happen to people who get too much radiation.

Deathclaws spreading east will likely put a damper on the expansion of the railroads. One of the big reasons the American bison became endangered was people shooting at them from trains. Though deathclaws won't be able to do anything about being shot at, it's likely to hurt them just enough to annoy them and their presence would endanger railroad workers badly enough to slow down their construction.

I wonder if the arrival of the NCR would be enough to accelerate the demise of slavery and prevent the Civil War. The Followers of the Apocalypse have pretty accurate records and they should be able to show how history will vilify the South for maintaining slaves. That, and the fact that NCR doesn't really discriminate based on race would help do a bit of convincing that non-whites are not "inferior" people.

Because I like the Brotherhood and I don't want them to die out, I hope this shock would be enough to bring them out of their isolation and at least broker a truce with the NCR. Civilization is back and restarted and the Brotherhood can help them avoid the mistakes of their ancestors if they are smart enough to.
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Rabid
PostPosted: 2012-02-19 07:55pm 

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If I can see the NCR and the US being at least cordial to each other for the first few years (for the simple reason they aren't stepping on each other's foots at the time), Mexico on the other hand just lost something like a third of its territory overnight. This is likely to create some tensions between them and the NCR.

What would happen ?
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Panzersharkcat
PostPosted: 2012-02-19 08:05pm 

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The NCR helps out a bit in fighting Mexico. They were dumped there on the first day of the Mexican-American War, so the US and the NCR have cause to ally for the time being, what with the US wanting Mexican territory and the NCR fighting for its own existence against Mexico, who would really like that territory back. The NCR Army numbers in the low tens of thousands so they should be able to send some troops and Rangers to help fight Mexico, since they don't have to worry about the Legion anymore. Wikipedia says the US Army at the beginning of the war numbered around 8600 soldiers, so NCR troops with modern weapons should help out greatly for the beginning.
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Rabid
PostPosted: 2012-02-19 08:34pm 

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican%E2 ... erican_War

Wikipedia's lower estimate put the Mexican forces at roughly 35,000 soldiers, and the higher at 60,000. If we assume the NCR can mobilize 10,000 soldiers in the first days of the war (troops from Las Vegas and Southern California), that put them outnumbered somewhere from 3-to-1 to 6-to-1. Given their force multipliers (automatic weapons, maybe some WWII style infantry mortars) and their personnel reserve (I think they may be able to divert 10 to 20,000 more troops to the frontline, maybe...), I'd give the advantage to the NCR : even if their army is largely conscript and there's some moral problems with the troops, I think they can overcome this handicap against the Mexicans, which aren't in any better state I believe.

Add in an auxiliary force of 8,000-10,000 American soldiers, and Mexico's defeat seems more or less assured.


The question I would ask is if the NCR will stop at its border, or if it will try to annex (at least) the northern portion of Mexico and La Baja ? Ingame bits of dialog suggest La Baja was under the influence of the NCR in 2281, but not annexed to it yet ("I heard they are sending Rangers from La Baja").
Is the region less fertile than NCR's territories ?
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Panzersharkcat
PostPosted: 2012-02-19 09:05pm 

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Yeah, considering the rifles of the time were still muzzle loaders and the NCR has respectably accurate semi-automatic rifles, some mechanized cavalry units, and a small vertibird fleet for Ranger strike teams, the NCR Army fine against the Mexican army. They use old US Army trucks for transport, and given that the path through the Divide is accessible again, their logistics would be a bit easier to handle. I'm not quite certain if they'd try to annex it, let the US have it, or allow Mexico to keep it. Their army is going to be pretty overstretched and exhausted trying to occupy all that, especially since they had been fighting the Legion for four years and they had to take on the Brotherhood of Steel prior to the war with the Legion, along with ongoing trouble with the Powder Gangers, Fiends, and the Khans.* I think even the politicians back west would realize that.

The area there is possibly more fertile. The Wikipedia article on Baja California says there are decent amount of forest there and it's good enough to have vineyards.

*Well, the NCR would probably make short work of the Fiends and Powder Gangers after the Legion disappears. The ending slides for NCR victory imply that.
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Rabid
PostPosted: 2012-02-19 09:15pm 

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Also, thinking about it, the possibility in New Vegas, once the Gun Runner Arsenal (GRA) DLC installed, to buy mini-nukes from even itinerant merchant, seems to suggest :

1 - That the Gun Runners (at least) know how to manufacture crude nuclear weapons. Maybe even the Van Graff can, thinking about it - I mean, that would only be logical, if they have the tech to build complex energy weapons...
2 - That they are "widely" available : I suspect the ones you can buy come from the black market ("inventory errors", etc...), but even then this suggest the NCR's arsenals must be composed of a least a few thousand mini-nukes (I'd hazard a guess and say somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 of the things).


So on top of what you said, we may be looking forward to units of NCR soldiers fielding Fat-Mans in the war against Mexico.
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Panzersharkcat
PostPosted: 2012-02-19 09:31pm 

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We don't see that happening in-game, though, but that may be because of load order issues. Even then, it'd probably be Heavy Troopers wielding them rather than regular NCR troops, since only heavy troopers would have the armor necessary to step in that close to use a Fat Man in the first place. NCR troops would be more likely to use Fat mines, and even that would be severe overkill when ordinary fragmentation mines would work just fine and don't require a perk to make. They'd also be a lot cheaper. I think mini-nukes would most likely be reserved for the vertibird fleet or for heavy troopers to use for breaking sieges.
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Rabid
PostPosted: 2012-02-19 09:38pm 

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Yeah, I'd think so, too.


Either way, the question I'm asking myself right now, is how the Mexican people would look upon the NCR in the occupied territories ? To know if we would be looking forward to a generalized rebellion, or something more pacific.
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Rabid
PostPosted: 2012-02-20 04:12am 

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To expand on the previous question, I think we can begin by checking if the NCR would constitute a qualitative improvement in the average peon's life.

I don't know exactly what was the exact fare of said peons at the time, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were still at the time, if not in law, in fact serf to the local oligarchs.

So, let's see what the NCR can offer to them :

1 - Constitutional equality of all citizens before the law (& an easy access to said citizenship, even to "non"-humans). The NCR is still corrupt, but I think the system itself is surely built on better foundations than the Mexican one.
2 - Abolition of the Aristocracy (if there was still one at the time in Mexico ?). Sure, it's replaced by an oligarchy of "Brahmins' Barons" constantly lobbying the Senate, but, meh...
3 - "The NCR take care of its own" : as can be seen in New Vegas (even if this was a ploy to destabilize the region at first), the NCR will go to great lengths to ensure that all its citizens will at least have an equal access to food and water (essential to its survival, if its first strength is manpower, it make sense to make sure that said manpower doesn't die of malnutrition) .
4 - Medical technologies : this one is the jackpot I can't emphasize enough, a sure way to win hearts & minds if used wisely (Followers of the Apocalypse FTW !)

And I may have missed some other things


However, I can see at least one point of friction :

The NCR is, as far as I know, built on secular foundations born of the diversity of Vault 15 - it is multi-ethnic, multi-racial, multi-species (which doesn't mean that racism has died out, just that the Law severely discourage it...). The Mexican people, however, is very Catholic (as far as I know).
This could lead to nasty situations if the local priests were to start preaching against the heathen invaders...
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PhilosopherOfSorts
PostPosted: 2012-02-20 07:25am 

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Location: Waynesburg, PA, its small, its insignifigant, its almost West Virginia.
Deathclaws are dangerous to isolated individuals and ill prepared groups, but shouldn't be a big problem in the long run, 45-70 government rounds take them down just fine, I'm sure the other buffalo guns of the era won't have any problems.
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Rabid
PostPosted: 2012-02-20 07:53am 

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Maybe. That's still not something I would want in my neighbourhood, and a further obstacle to the colonization of the West for the Americans.

One thing I can see is the crapload of hostile wildlife introduced by this scenario in North America giving a whole new meaning to the Second Amemdment in american culture (in the decades and century to come at least)...


Note : I'll also add radscorpions and cazadores to the list of dangerous species endemic to large portions of NCR territories.
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Panzersharkcat
PostPosted: 2012-02-20 12:46pm 

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That, and the fact that the guns of the time were muzzleloaders. If you miss, you're going to get deathclaws all up on your ass. Fortunately, they don't have to worry about tunnelers. Nightstalkers will be a bit of a pain, especially if the Stealth Boy mutation spreads.

Medical supplies appear to be in short supply, though, given the state of Camp Forlorn Hope and Bitter Springs. That may be because the NCR has not put its economy on a total war footing, like making Vault City crank out medical supplies and armor. My only evidence for that, though, is the fact that citizens are allowed to just go all the way to Vegas to blow their money away instead of putting those resources into fighting the Legion. I think it may depend on how heavy-handed the NCR is in occupying their new territories. I think their highly integrated society will do a bit to ease tensions but we're still dealing with 19th century mindsets that may not change too quickly.
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