RAR: 2012! Germany sent back to the 1880's

[Skywalker_T-65]

Inspired by this thread: http://bbs.stardestroyer.net/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=153002

Now, the last two got me thinking...we have done China, and America transported back to important parts in their history...so what about Germany? Now the main reason I decided on Germany is that they are small enough that it requires actual thinking and not 'RAR!!! DESTROY OTHER COUNTRIES!!' like the other two could do (emphasis on the 'could' I'm not saying China or America would go all Imperial on everyone). Plus in the 1880's they have a decidedly hostile neighbor in the form of France, who would not be happy with the Franco-Prussian War outcome, and have a larger (if primitive) military.

So...2012!Germany is transported back to the 1880's (vague I know) with all its territory and all the military units inside said territory, but not overseas forces, or ones in other European nations. Meanwhile, 1880's Germany is sent forward, with all the territory that 2012 Germany had. So...what happens? Does 2012!Germany create a massive power-vacumn...or does it overpower whoever attacks it? What about the people in what is now Poland? How do those Germans/Poles react to suddenly having their leaders vanish? And how does 1880's!Germany react to loosing a large chunk of territory?

(PS, this is a serious RAR and I want to see what people think)

[LaCroix]

European Union collapses. Euro is abolished. Without Germany, it can't be done. France can't carry it alone, especially since it's now alone against the UK. Old Germany in 2012 will be pissed that half its size is gone, but can't do anything, as they are seriously out-numbered by Poland and everyone.

German scientists will swarm to Vienna University to be brought up to date. Austrian companies will be working hard to erect infrastructure. (They were relatively friendly with Austria in their time, and would distrust French or British - so it seems logical they wouldn't let any of them into their country, at first.)

They will adapt with ruthless efficiency, especially since their natural resources are not depleted by two world wars, and under the caring rule of Wilhelm I and Otto von Bismarck.

Down the time-line, a superpower is born. Germany has enough nuclear power, and coal and oil can be found easily at this time (although the supplies need to be secured by trade). France and Britain might try to intervene if they see that there is upheaval in Prussia, and find out the hard way that automatic fire and air-power is a bitch. If they don't start meddling instantly (and definitely after an example is made of an attacker), Austria-Hungary will approach Germany and insist that the just-signed alliance treaty will be honoured... They'd be too frightened that the earlier hostilities could be rekindled:D

I don't know how much "Realpolitik" will be done, but it is sure that none of the German lands left behind will fall into other hands unless modern Germany allows it. They might not be all fire and brimstone like the USA would be, but the disparity is big enough that they'd be military dominant to an extent that's just not funny.

[Simon_Jester]

Wait- so the German-owned Alsace-Lorraine of 1885 replaces the French-owned Alsace-Lorraine of today?

Oooh, that's gonna leave a mark.

[Rabid]

No. It's the territories of 2012!Germany that get sent to the past, and the corresponding territories in the 1880's that get swapped to 2012. So 2012!France get to keep Alsace-Lorraine, and 1880!France might have a chance to seize back the region if 2012!Germany wish to offer this to them in a token of good will. I'd tend to think this is what 2012!Germany would do, in order to show to their neighbours that they are happy in their current borders... After all, what would they do with it anyway ? They might as well secure peace and good relations with Europe while they are at it.


Now, I'm thinking about one thing : what is 2012!Germany going to do about the Imperialism of the time ?

[Eternal_Freedom]

The new Germany in the 1880's will not be as dominant at sea as, say, modern Us in 1776 woudl have been. Europe is no longe rin the Age of Sail and ironclad/pre-dreadnought battleships are being built heavily. Sure, a modern anti sihp missile will kill one of these, as will torpedoes, but its no longer a case of "roll up in a destroyer and start wrecking captial ships with the 5 inch gun on the bow." And unless I'm mistaken, modern German destroyers or whatever aren't heavily armoured, so a single hit from a 12 inch gun wil cause substantial damage.

I can see them becoming fast friends with the British Empire of the day. the Brits had the most territory and resources and may be able to help the past-Germany find and exploit oil deposits and such in exchange for improvements to industry and technology.

[Thanas]

The new Germany in the 1880's will not be as dominant at sea as, say, modern Us in 1776 woudl have been. Europe is no longe rin the Age of Sail and ironclad/pre-dreadnought battleships are being built heavily. Sure, a modern anti sihp missile will kill one of these, as will torpedoes, but its no longer a case of "roll up in a destroyer and start wrecking captial ships with the 5 inch gun on the bow." And unless I'm mistaken, modern German destroyers or whatever aren't heavily armoured, so a single hit from a 12 inch gun wil cause substantial damage.

How are they going to hit a modern destroyer with those guns, no radar guidance and a whopping 2% hitrate on capital ships in those days?

Sure, not as dominant as modern US in 1776, but for the purposes of this experiment the difference may very well be miniscule. Heck, with the SSKs Germany has today they could sink the grand fleet in an afternoon.

I can see them becoming fast friends with the British Empire of the day.

No, not when British policy was hellbent on staying a world power. It is far more likely Germany will simply get into beneficial relations with other nations that have oil deposits.


Of course, the most likely outcome is that modern Germany collapses rather easily as the industry stops to function due to lack of oil and petrol.

[Chirios]

No, not when British policy was hellbent on staying a world power. It is far more likely Germany will simply get into beneficial relations with other nations that have oil deposits.


Of course, the most likely outcome is that modern Germany collapses rather easily as the industry stops to function due to lack of oil and petrol.

The best option would be to ration oil, switch to nuclear and coal for domestic power consumption until they can gain access to North/West African oil reserves.

How many coal plants does Germany still have functioning?

EDIT- a wikipedia search puts Germany's electricity sector at 46% coal and pre shutdown at 30% nuclear. How long would it take to get the nuclear plants going again? Not long I'd imagine, so nearly all domestic power production should be accounted for within a year or so.

Replacing oil will be difficult, but not impossible. As I said before, if they can get access to North African and West African oil reserves they should be able to survive; though there will be high unemployment and mass unrest.

[Batman]

How the hell is Germany supposed to switch to nuclear in 1880? Sure as Germany seems to have been transposed as is which would mean all records intact we'd know where fissionable ores are to be found, but the infrastructure for mining them simply doesn't exist. Unless there's significant uranium mines within german proper I'm not aware of.
Also, there's a lot of water/power/communications/fuel lines that are suddenly bisected at the german borders, that's going to be quite a mess

[Simon_Jester]

How the hell is Germany supposed to switch to nuclear in 1880? Sure as Germany seems to have been transposed as is which would mean all records intact we'd know where fissionable ores are to be found, but the infrastructure for mining them simply doesn't exist. Unless there's significant uranium mines within german proper I'm not aware of.
Also, there's a lot of water/power/communications/fuel lines that are suddenly bisected at the german borders, that's going to be quite a mess

Europe has a dense rail network and the equipment for hard-rock mining already exists, so uranium mines can be created fairly quickly if need be. A bigger problem is enrichment.

Even then, though, nuclear fuel rods last for years inside a plant- if the Germans can get enough mines running elsewhere and funnel it into their enrichment facility, they'll at least be able to manage a 'soft landing.' They might have to look into building equipment to reprocess spent fuel rods or the like.

I wonder what German policy on nuclear weapons will be. It seems obvious they won't try to build them...

[Grandmaster Jogurt]

No. It's the territories of 2012!Germany that get sent to the past, and the corresponding territories in the 1880's that get swapped to 2012. So 2012!France get to keep Alsace-Lorraine, and 1880!France might have a chance to seize back the region if 2012!Germany wish to offer this to them in a token of good will. I'd tend to think this is what 2012!Germany would do, in order to show to their neighbours that they are happy in their current borders... After all, what would they do with it anyway ? They might as well secure peace and good relations with Europe while they are at it.

From what I remember, in 1880 most residents of Alsace-Lorraine felt more like conquered Frenchmen than liberated Germans, even with the majority population being German-speaking. Since both would likely end up with similar results, what would be seen as a more magnanimous gesture in this time period, a plebiscite or simply giving it to France?

Also, would it even be seen as a decision 2012 Germany could make? Unlike the previous time-swap scenarios, this one makes it more clear that there'd be two Germanies in the past. Even though most of Prussia, including Berlin, has been swapped away, there's still millions of Prussians here who can lay legitimate claim to Alsace-Lorraine, even with the separation.

Really, with this version replacing not an entire country, but just the majority of it, I'm curious how that sort of thing would be handled in general.

[Batman]

Reprocessing/enrichment we may or may not have covered locally, but how many uranium mining sites are there in Europe? (That's an honest question, I have no clue). As for the railway network, how much has it changed since 1880? Gauges, location of the physical tracks etc? My first guess would be 'nothing much' but there have been several wars and and revolutions in-between.
As for the nukes I fail to see what Germany would need them for-presupposing we can keep Germany's economy going at all, the Bundeswehr can annihilate any military force of that era with impunity, due to having air superiority by default. Iron bombs alone would be enough to eradicate everything 1880 can throw at us, nevermind cluster munitions.
Besides, I don't know much about 1880s politicians but given that most of the 20/21st century ones I've run across (some of which were abysmally stupid) were smart enough to know when they were hopelessly outmatched, I suspect the surrounding countries are going to be very careful NOT to piss off the new and improved Germany.

[Skgoa]

Regarding the nuke question: The former East Germany is rich in Uranium and we process our own nuclear fuel. There will be no supply problems.
Regarding coal: We still have huge amounts of coal lying around + the machines and people who work them. There will be no supply problems.
Regarding Oil, rare earths, etc.: Yes, raw materials will have to be imported at some point. But we actually have quite large stocks lying around. E.g. last time I checked, we had more than two years worth of oil in reserve. Admittedly that was several years ago, but we will have month if not years to develop sources. Let's not forget that we have a complete record of discovered oil fields.

It's pretty obvious we would have to implement emergency meassures to preserve fossil fuels etc. but I think this is one of those times were people would know to shut up and work together.

[Zor]

A crackdown against far right groups is likely going to be necessary. Those fuckers probably would take advantage of the situation to stir up trouble.

Zor

[Batman]

Excuse me? Those guys aren't doing any damage worth mentioning as it is and that's in-country. What makes you think they have the means to be a problem internationally?

[PeZook]

In addition to East German uranium deposits, there's uranium in what is now modern Poland (Austria-Hungary in 1880), and IIRC Sweden is said to have some reserves but I'm not sure on that.

[Skgoa]

Even though most of Prussia, including Berlin, has been swapped away, there's still millions of Prussians here who can lay legitimate claim to Alsace-Lorraine, even with the separation.

Erm, no. From modern Germany's point of view, the people of Alsace-Lorraine have already spoken. (And if that doesn't count, they have the right to a vote.) History concious people would see the benefit in ending the feud with France. And let's not forget that we have a complete record of what led to european integration and what benefits we reaped since.

[Lonestar]

And, of course, it also carries a shitload of NATO personnel and equipment back with it.

So, who wants to lay odds that the US is going to demand that their personnel get handed over?

[madd0ct0r]

Hmmm. given the horror that was WW1, and the benefits gemany gained from eu intergration - could we be seeing the rise of a UCE (United Countries of Europe)?

Britain will still hang around on the outskirts, what with the island mentality and the empire to try and hold together- France and Portgual might be quietly dissuaded for continuing their colonies (which weren't all that useful) in return for an infrastructure upgrade. Spain not so sure on. Italy was a basketcase, Russia won't reform and the Bolsheviks will still rebel, and even with covert operations I predict some form of totalitarianism to emerge there. The Prussian areas will be a bit sniffy about the lack of martial vigour but very quickly move into a client state relationship. The Scandavains will be morose. The Swiss paranoid.

[Slacker]

When Russia explodes, what happens to the Baltic States and Poland, now that's my question. Germany may find it very useful to have some depth in happy subordinate states in the east.

[Thanas]

Poland most likely wouldn't exist, but the baltics gaining independence is something I would be willing to bet money on.

[General Mung Beans]

Are the German territories in the east (East and West Prussia, Silesia etc.) going to join the 2012 Germany? Would be interesting if the Kaiser happens to be there or somewhere outside of the replaced territory at the time...