Iran may block oil supply.

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Iran may block oil supply.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/world ... s&emc-tha2

Page 1:
WASHINGTON — A senior Iranian official on Tuesday delivered a sharp threat in response to economic sanctions being readied by the United States, saying his country would retaliate against any crackdown by blocking all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for transporting about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

The New York Times
Related

Iranian Court Begins Trial of U.S. Man (December 28, 2011)
As Further Sanctions Loom, Plunge in Currency’s Value Unsettles Iran (December 21, 2011)
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The declaration by Iran’s first vice president, Mohammad-Reza Rahimi, came as President Obama prepares to sign legislation that, if fully implemented, could substantially reduce Iran’s oil revenue in a bid to deter it from pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

Prior to the latest move, the administration had been laying the groundwork to attempt to cut off Iran from global energy markets without raising the price of gasoline or alienating some of Washington’s closest allies.

Apparently fearful of the expanded sanctions’ possible impact on the already-stressed economy of Iran, the world’s third-largest energy exporter, Mr. Rahimi said, “If they impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz,” according to Iran’s official news agency. Iran just began a 10-day naval exercise in the area.

In recent interviews, Obama administration officials have said that the United States has developed a plan to keep the strait open in the event of a crisis. In Hawaii, where President Obama is vacationing, a White House spokesman said there would be no comment on the Iranian threat to close the strait. That seemed in keeping with what administration officials say has been an effort to lower the level of angry exchanges, partly to avoid giving the Iranian government the satisfaction of a response and partly to avoid spooking financial markets.

But the energy sanctions carry the risk of confrontation, as well as economic disruption, given the unpredictability of the Iranian response. Some administration officials believe that a plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States — which Washington alleges received funding from the Quds Force, part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps — was in response to American and other international sanctions.

Merely uttering the threat appeared to be part of an Iranian effort to demonstrate its ability to cause a spike in oil prices, thus slowing the United States economy, and to warn American trading partners that joining the new sanctions, which the Senate passed by a rare 100-0 vote, would come at a high cost.

Oil prices rose above $100 a barrel in trading after the threat was issued, though it was unclear how much that could be attributed to investors’ concern that confrontation in the Persian Gulf could disrupt oil flows.

The new punitive measures, part of a bill financing the military, would significantly escalate American sanctions against Iran. They come just a month and a half after the International Atomic Energy Agency published a report that for the first time laid out its evidence that Iran may be secretly working to design a nuclear warhead, despite the country’s repeated denials.

In the wake of the I.A.E.A. report and a November attack on the British Embassy in Tehran, the European Union is also contemplating strict new sanctions, such as an embargo on Iranian oil.

For five years, the United States has implemented increasingly severe sanctions in an attempt to force Iran’s leaders to reconsider the suspected nuclear weapons program, and answer a growing list of questions from the I.A.E.A. But it has deliberately stopped short of targeting oil exports, which finance as much as half of Iran’s budget.

Now, with its hand forced by Congress, the administration is preparing to take that final step, penalizing foreign corporations that do business with Iran’s central bank, which collects payment for most of the country’s energy exports.

The sanction would effectively make it difficult for those who do business with Iran’s central bank to also conduct financial transactions with the United States. The step was so severe that one of President Obama’s top national security aides said two months ago that it was “a last resort.” The administration raced to put some loopholes in the final legislation so that it could reduce the impact on close allies who have signed on to pressuring Iran.

The legislation allows President Obama to waive sanctions if they cause the price of oil to rise or threaten national security.
Page 2:
Still, the new sanctions raise crucial economic, diplomatic, and security questions. Mr. Obama, his aides acknowledge, has no interest in seeing energy prices rise significantly at a moment of national economic weakness or as he intensifies his bid for re-election — a vulnerability the Iranians fully understand. So the administration has to defy, or at least carefully calibrate, the laws of supply and demand, bringing to market new sources of oil to ensure that global prices do not rise sharply.
Related

Iranian Court Begins Trial of U.S. Man (December 28, 2011)
As Further Sanctions Loom, Plunge in Currency’s Value Unsettles Iran (December 21, 2011)
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“I don’t think anybody thinks we can contravene the laws of supply and demand any more than we can contravene the laws of gravity,” said David S. Cohen, who, as treasury under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, oversees the administration of the sanctions. But, he said, “We have flexibility here, and I think we have a pretty good opportunity to dial this in just the right way that it does end up putting significant pressure on Iran.”

The American effort, as described by Mr. Cohen and others, is more subtle than simply cutting off Iran’s ability to export oil, a step that would immediately send the price of gasoline, heating fuel, and other petroleum products skyward. That would “mean that Iran would, in fact, have more money to fuel its nuclear ambitions, not less,” Wendy R. Sherman, the newly installed under secretary of state for political affairs, warned the Senate Foreign Relations Committee earlier this month.

Instead, the administration’s aim is to reduce Iran’s oil revenue by diminishing the volume of sales and forcing Iran to give its customers a discount on the price of crude.

Some economists question whether reducing Iran’s oil exports without moving the price of oil is feasible, even if the market is given signals about alternative supplies. Already, analysts at investment banks are warning of the possibility of rising gasoline prices in 2012, due to the new sanctions by the United States as well as complementary sanctions under consideration by the European Union.

Since President Obama’s first months in office, his aides have been talking to Saudi Arabia and other oil suppliers about increasing their production, and about guaranteeing sales to countries like China, which is among Iran’s biggest customers. But it is unclear that the Saudis can fill in the gap left by Iran, even with the help of Libyan oil that is coming back on the market. The United States is also looking to countries like Iraq and Angola to increase production.

Daniel Yergin, whose new book, “The Quest,” describes the oil politics of dealing with states like Iran, noted in an interview that “given the relative tightness of the market, it will require careful construction of the sanctions combined with vigorous efforts to bring alternative supplies into the market.” He said that it would “add a whole new dimension to the debate over the Keystone XL pipeline,” the oil pipeline from Canada to the United States that the administration has sought to delay.

“The only strategy that is going to work here is one where you get the cooperation of oil buyers,” said Michael Singh, managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “You could imagine the Europeans, the Japanese, and the South Koreans cooperating, and then China would suck up all of the oil that was initially going to everyone else.”

A broader question is whether the sanctions — even if successful at lowering Iran’s oil revenue — would force the government to give up its nuclear ambitions.

One measure of the effects, however, is that the Iranian leadership is clearly concerned. Already the Iranian currency is plummeting in value against the dollar, and there are rumors of bank runs.

“Iran’s economic problems seem to be mounting and the whole economy is in a state of suspended expectation,” said Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University. “The regime keeps repeating that they’re not going to be impacted by the sanctions. That they have more money than they know what to do with. The lady doth protest too much.”
Jesus Christ. Is Iran bluffing, are they stupid enough to think they could do this without provoking a war, or are they too stupid/crazy to care?

Also, if the current sanctions are "a last resort.": what happens when/if those fail? How likely is it that America will soon be at war with Iran? And what would that do to Obama's election prospects?
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Let them do it, its the easiest way to have China and Europe align completely behind the US. Most Persian Gulf their oil goes to them. We would have the Strait open for buisness a few days later anyway.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Patroklos wrote:Let them do it, its the easiest way to have China and Europe align completely behind the US. Most Persian Gulf their oil goes to them. We would have the Strait open for buisness a few days later anyway.
Exactly. An alternate title for this article could be "Iran threatens to cut off it's primary access to hard currency"
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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I seriously doubt this could end in war, even in a worst case scenario*. The U.S. populace is rather war weary at the moment, to say nothing of the troops coming back from Iraq. Add on the cost of a war against Iran and it seems like good way to commit political suicide in the current climate for all involved who would support such an endeavor. Worse case we lob cruise missles and and perhaps conduct a limited arial campaign, I just can't see a ground war being stomached by the U.S. citizenry. Mind you this is leaving out any moral considerations, though given its track record I'm not sure the U.S. Government (or any government for that matter) should be relied upon to take morality into consideration during its decision making process.

Note: I sure as hell hope I'm right.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Wing Commander MAD wrote:I seriously doubt this could end in war, even in a worst case scenario*. The U.S. populace is rather war weary at the moment, to say nothing of the troops coming back from Iraq. Add on the cost of a war against Iran and it seems like good way to commit political suicide in the current climate for all involved who would support such an endeavor. Worse case we lob cruise missles and and perhaps conduct a limited arial campaign, I just can't see a ground war being stomached by the U.S. citizenry. Mind you this is leaving out any moral considerations, though given its track record I'm not sure the U.S. Government (or any government for that matter) should be relied upon to take morality into consideration during its decision making process.

Note: I sure as hell hope I'm right.
it won't end in shit. Iran needs oil money as bad as everyone else needs oil. This is dick waving.. no more, no less.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Wing Commander MAD wrote:I seriously doubt this could end in war, even in a worst case scenario*. The U.S. populace is rather war weary at the moment, to say nothing of the troops coming back from Iraq. Add on the cost of a war against Iran and it seems like good way to commit political suicide in the current climate for all involved who would support such an endeavor. Worse case we lob cruise missles and and perhaps conduct a limited arial campaign, I just can't see a ground war being stomached by the U.S. citizenry. Mind you this is leaving out any moral considerations, though given its track record I'm not sure the U.S. Government (or any government for that matter) should be relied upon to take morality into consideration during its decision making process.

Note: I sure as hell hope I'm right.
Of course there wouldn't be a ground war, why would that be needed to reopen the SOH? Maybe we will have the Marines take a few of the islands in the strait itself, but there is no reason to conventionally invade Iran proper.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Highlord Laan »

Such a blockade would last about as long as it took a Nimitz group to get in range. On the upside, Iran wouldn't have to pay for a navy or air force anymore.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Destructionator XIII wrote:Doesn't Iran have a right to control their territory? I know there's a "law of the sea" that says your ships can go from place to place quickly, but is that just a traditional courtesy or is it actually a just and legal principle?
We've been through this before.

Link

Tl;dr, Iran mines the Gulf; a US FFG hits one and almost sinks; we recover mines around the striking site; and their serials are in the same batch as those we seized from an Iranian ship a bit back...

We then sink the entire Iranian navy pretty much.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Destructionator XIII wrote:Doesn't Iran have a right to control their territory? I know there's a "law of the sea" that says your ships can go from place to place quickly, but is that just a traditional courtesy or is it actually a just and legal principle?
The Strait isn't all-Iranian territory (in many places the shipping lanes pass through Omanian territorial waters, where Iran has no more right to block traffic than they would on the dark side of the Moon).

In addition, territorial rights over the sea are... modulated by a nation's willingness to allow the seas to be used for lawful purposes. When you close a strategic body of water (the English Channel, the Øresund, and so on), you're interfering with the lawful business of a huge number of nations that are totally uninvolved in your dispute. Dragging them into matters they would otherwise not care about is the sort of behavior that gets descriptions like 'breach of the peace.'

Think of this as being like public-nuisance statutes, scaled up to the size of countries.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Destructionator XIII wrote:From your link:
On November 6, 2003, the International Court of Justice ruled that "the actions of the United States of America against Iranian oil platforms on 19 October 1987 (Operation Nimble Archer) and 18 April 1988 (Operation Praying Mantis) cannot be justified as measures necessary to protect the essential security interests of the United States of America."
tho on the other hand:

http://www.parstimes.com/law/iran_us_treaty.html
Article X
1. Between the territories of the two High Contracting Parties there shall be freedom of commerce and navigation.
Not a good reference considering all the embargoes the US has against Iran.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Col. Crackpot wrote:An alternate title for this article could be "Iran threatens to cut off it's primary access to hard currency"
That's a rather misleading way of putting it. If they ever carry out this threat, it will be because the US has already cut off its primary access to hard currency - that's the whole point of "substantially reduc[ing] Iran’s oil revenue in a bid to deter it from pursuing a nuclear weapons program".

Iran's threat is an economic MAD doctrine - they can't directly stop the US using economic sanctions to hurt Iran, but they can make sure the US won't come out of it unscathed.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Grumman wrote:
Col. Crackpot wrote:An alternate title for this article could be "Iran threatens to cut off it's primary access to hard currency"
That's a rather misleading way of putting it. If they ever carry out this threat, it will be because the US has already cut off its primary access to hard currency - that's the whole point of "substantially reduc[ing] Iran’s oil revenue in a bid to deter it from pursuing a nuclear weapons program".

Iran's threat is an economic MAD doctrine - they can't directly stop the US using economic sanctions to hurt Iran, but they can make sure the US won't come out of it unscathed.

By the US you are surely also referring to UN Security Council Resolutions 1737, 1747, 1803 and 1929 as well as European Union Council Regulation 423/2007 in addition to various economic santions from nations such as Canada, India, Australia etc... right?
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Destructionator XIII wrote:Doesn't Iran have a right to control their territory? I know there's a "law of the sea" that says your ships can go from place to place quickly, but is that just a traditional courtesy or is it actually a just and legal principle?
The "law of the sea" is an actual international convention, to which Iran is a signatory. It handles issues related to straits used for international navigation in Part III

So yes, it is actually a legal principle recognized by Iran, but we all know how countries tend to piss all over international law if they think they can get away with it.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Question: Does Iran have an oil pipeline going somewhere the sanctions don't affect, like a former Soviet Republic? Or are they seriously threatening to shoot themselves in the foot?
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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No, they aren't "threatening to shoot themselves into the foot" - merely vainglorious posturing.
Does Iran have an oil pipeline going somewhere the sanctions don't affect, like a former Soviet Republic?
Exactly comrade ++en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Armenia_gas_pipeline

If Iran cuts off the naval traffic lines, we might as well see the Great Armenian Economic miracle, lol.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Stas Bush wrote:No, they aren't "threatening to shoot themselves into the foot" - merely vainglorious posturing.
Does Iran have an oil pipeline going somewhere the sanctions don't affect, like a former Soviet Republic?
Exactly comrade ++en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Armenia_gas_pipeline

If Iran cuts off the naval traffic lines, we might as well see the Great Armenian Economic miracle, lol.
you know natural gas and crude oil are different hings, right?

edit: nevermind, i'm an idiot. lol
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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I know the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea said territorial waters extends 12 nautical miles. The territorial sea is considered sovereign territory of the state, although foreign ships (both military and civilian) are allowed non-combative passage through it; it also extends to the airspace over and seabed below.

a) the maximum breadth of the territorial sea is fixed at 12 miles and that of the contiguous zone at 24 miles;

b) a “transit passage” regime for straits used for international navigation is established, while non-suspendable innocent passage applies to straits for which there is an alternative route and to straits connecting the high seas or an economic zone to the territorial sea of a State;

c) States consisting of archipelagos, provided certain conditions are satisfied, can be considered as “archipelagic States”, the outermost islands being connected by “archipelagic baselines” so that the waters inside these lines are archipelagic waters (similar to internal waters but with a right of innocent passage and a right of archipelagic sea lanes passage similar to transit passage through straits, for third States);

d) a 200-mile exclusive economic zone including the seabed and the water column, may be established by coastal States in which such States exercise sovereign rights and jurisdiction on all resource-related activities, including artificial islands and installations, marine scientific research and the protection of the environment;

e) other States enjoy in the exclusive economic zone high seas freedoms of navigation, overflight, laying of cables and pipelines and other internationally lawful uses of the sea connected with these freedoms;

f) a rule of reciprocal “due regard” applies to ensure compatibility between the exercise of the rights of the coastal States and of those of other States in the exclusive economic zone;


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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Iran threatens to have its navy commit suicide by cop.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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I keep wondering if any of this Iranian sabre-rattling was brought about by their own fear of having an internal revolution ala Egypt.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Iran won't dare. Doing something like this is regime suicide.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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How is it regime suicide? It's not like anyone's going to plunk down the hundreds of billions of dollars it costs to occupy a country and force regime change.

Please think things through.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Simon_Jester wrote:It's not like anyone's going to plunk down the hundreds of billions of dollars it costs to occupy a country and force regime change.

Please think things through.
You know, i'm not even sure if this is sarcasm or not. :lol: America has in the past and will in the future. ce la vie

Iran is being an idiot. If they cause that level of economic chaos, they've lost their man shield against being politely curbstomped. There will be a significant number of groups happy to try and take over, and their backers will suddenly have nothing to loose.

Even other Gulf states would benefit from the extra cash from an oil price spike, and a number would prefer to see Iran moderated.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Alyeska »

People seem to be forgetting something. Most of what Iran says and does is not intended for international consumption. They largely do things for domestic reasons. So while they are sounding pompous, we are not the intended audience right now. It is a show of strength for the people of Iran.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by madd0ct0r »

how many people in Iran can read the wind though?

for a lot of people, this ain't a statement of power, of us vs US, it's a 'hmm, get ready boys, just in case they're stupid enough to try it.'
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Stark »

Even more so, wank fantasies about how the US would TOTALLY RUIN IRAN LOL WITH MISSILES may just reinforce (to Iranians) that the threat is serious and that they have power in this situation. Most nationalist nations do the same thing all the time.
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