Iran may block oil supply.

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Alyeska
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Alyeska »

madd0ct0r wrote:how many people in Iran can read the wind though?

for a lot of people, this ain't a statement of power, of us vs US, it's a 'hmm, get ready boys, just in case they're stupid enough to try it.'
Iran is not stupid. Closing off the straights is a freaking Weapon of Mass Destruction for all intents and purposes. It is also economic suicide.

I have a grenade. I walk up to you holding the grenade. I pull the pin and hold it to your chest. It might kill you, but it sure as fuck is going to kill me.

Cutting off the straights is only a weapon of last resort. We don't want to back them into a corner where they actually contemplate it. It is one thing for them to talk about it out loud. Actually doing it is far different.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Simon_Jester »

madd0ct0r wrote:
Simon_Jester wrote:It's not like anyone's going to plunk down the hundreds of billions of dollars it costs to occupy a country and force regime change.Please think things through.
You know, i'm not even sure if this is sarcasm or not. :lol: America has in the past and will in the future. ce la vie
It's not, because the US is not going to do it over Iran right now.

The Iraq war (Afghanistan is a minor contributor compared to Iraq) has pretty well exhausted the American appetite for interventionism for the time being, much as Vietnam did in the 1970s. It would be an incredibly bad political move for a president to start an optional foreign war that involved occupation of yet another country full of hostile Muslim fundamentalist guerillas. Obama sure as hell won't do it if he can possibly avoid it; I doubt even a Republican really would unless they were truly brick stupid. They might pretend otherwise as an exercise in muscle-flexing, but if you look beneath the surface even the Republicans today seem to grasp just how war-weary the US is.

Maybe in fifteen or twenty years that will change, and the US will be willing to spend the time and effort to occupy Iran. But by then the relationship will have totally changed because of the Iranian nuclear program.

And no one else will do the occupation duty either, because no one else has the mix of capabilities and concern for a long range colonial-style occupation that's inevitably going to become a running sore for the nation in terms of money and lives.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Would people really see it as just another needless war if their was provocation on this scale? Its one thing to get the public to support a war based on greed or ideology, where the American people have not been attacked or threatened. Its another to get them to support a war over something that is devastating their country's economy (along with the rest of the global economy).

I'm not saying it absolutely would play out that way, but I'm not going to assume otherwise, either.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Simon_Jester »

War, yes. Protracted occupation? Different question.

I'm quite sure that if Iran actually tried to close off trade through the Strait of Hormuz, the aggregate will of the American people would be all for shooting down their planes, sinking their ships, blowing up their missile batteries. Maybe dropping the odd bunker-buster on any suspected nuclear complexes that have been identified.

That's just big explosions and triumphal marches, the stuff you can get cheers for, with talk about 'military targets' and the like. The sort of thing they make video games about these days, almost.

But to put boots on the ground, to physically topple the Iranian government and stay there for the ten-plus years needed to create a new regime out of whole cloth, over the violent objections of the old regime and its remnants?

The political will isn't there- the cupboard is bare, the army is already running short of available manpower after Iraq and with Afghanistan ongoing, the public has little interest in running up another trillion dollars of debt to pay for it, et cetera. It's not going to happen, not in the near future. There is too much war-weariness; the American military industrial complex is not a perpetual motion machine.

And yet it's what would have to happen for IndrickBoreale93's hysterical claim of "regime suicide" to hold true.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by LaCroix »

Honestly, I doubt the US would be alone on this. If there is one sentence that describes world politics, then it is "The oil must flow".

With such a blockade, there is a good chance that Iran is getting dog-piled. Hell, when oil prices spike, you could even sell a war to the public in my country, which is notoriously war-weary (to the point of embracing the concept of perpetual neutrality fully).

While the war would only be a one of the 'surgical strike' types, and most definitely not result in boots at the ground, there still is a good chance that it will topple the regime. After all, there have been regimes toppled over less of a prestige loss like the utter defeat that blockade will result in.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Wing Commander MAD »

Patroklos wrote:
Wing Commander MAD wrote:I seriously doubt this could end in war, even in a worst case scenario*. The U.S. populace is rather war weary at the moment, to say nothing of the troops coming back from Iraq. Add on the cost of a war against Iran and it seems like good way to commit political suicide in the current climate for all involved who would support such an endeavor. Worse case we lob cruise missles and and perhaps conduct a limited arial campaign, I just can't see a ground war being stomached by the U.S. citizenry. Mind you this is leaving out any moral considerations, though given its track record I'm not sure the U.S. Government (or any government for that matter) should be relied upon to take morality into consideration during its decision making process.

Note: I sure as hell hope I'm right.
Of course there wouldn't be a ground war, why would that be needed to reopen the SOH? Maybe we will have the Marines take a few of the islands in the strait itself, but there is no reason to conventionally invade Iran proper.
The OP said war. Blowing shit up and with no chance of ground conflict is not being at war in my mind, more modern day super power dick waving. I severly doubt an air campaign can achieve the same long term goals, whatever they may be, as an actual ground war. I will grant it is an act of war, or at the very least can be seen as one if the recieving party chooses to view it as such.

Edit: I should note that my view of war is also colored by Iraq and to a lesser extent Aphganistan, so it may be somewhat skewed.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Bakustra »

The tenor of these responses shows exactly why Iran would be developing nuclear weapons and why these sanctions can really only ever be ineffectual or evil- though the brain trust that runs this benighted, wretched country no doubt will continue to keep their eyes screwed up and their fingers in their ears until the first generation to have this explained to them by college professors manages to reach the ears of the powerful. I figure that should happen in about 30 years or so.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Patroklos »

Simon_Jester wrote:War, yes. Protracted occupation? Different question.

I'm quite sure that if Iran actually tried to close off trade through the Strait of Hormuz, the aggregate will of the American people would be all for shooting down their planes, sinking their ships, blowing up their missile batteries. Maybe dropping the odd bunker-buster on any suspected nuclear complexes that have been identified.

That's just big explosions and triumphal marches, the stuff you can get cheers for, with talk about 'military targets' and the like. The sort of thing they make video games about these days, almost.

But to put boots on the ground, to physically topple the Iranian government and stay there for the ten-plus years needed to create a new regime out of whole cloth, over the violent objections of the old regime and its remnants?

The political will isn't there- the cupboard is bare, the army is already running short of available manpower after Iraq and with Afghanistan ongoing, the public has little interest in running up another trillion dollars of debt to pay for it, et cetera. It's not going to happen, not in the near future. There is too much war-weariness; the American military industrial complex is not a perpetual motion machine.

And yet it's what would have to happen for IndrickBoreale93's hysterical claim of "regime suicide" to hold true.
You are spot on with everything but the bolded. The Army has not had a manpower problem in years (even then it was due to basing, not lack of soldiers), and is voluntarily shrinking itself by up to 40K as we speak.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Simon_Jester »

"Voluntarily shrinking itself-" when you say that's a good thing for the Army, for the purposes of what I'm getting at, you're missing the point. The Army has been able to shrink, reorganize, and meet its manpower targets largely because we have been scaling back our troop commitments.

If we suddenly needed to garrison Iran with something like a quarter million men, the question would not be "is the Army meeting its own recruitment and retention targets." It would be "can the Army keep up enough recruitment and retention to maintain the troops we need?"

Suddenly, in terms of casualties and numbers deployed, we'd be right back where we were in 2004; we might even be worse off. The only thing that could keep up numbers in the Army under those conditions would be high unemployment, I suspect.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Block »

Simon_Jester wrote:"Voluntarily shrinking itself-" when you say that's a good thing for the Army, for the purposes of what I'm getting at, you're missing the point. The Army has been able to shrink, reorganize, and meet its manpower targets largely because we have been scaling back our troop commitments.

If we suddenly needed to garrison Iran with something like a quarter million men, the question would not be "is the Army meeting its own recruitment and retention targets." It would be "can the Army keep up enough recruitment and retention to maintain the troops we need?"

Suddenly, in terms of casualties and numbers deployed, we'd be right back where we were in 2004; we might even be worse off. The only thing that could keep up numbers in the Army under those conditions would be high unemployment, I suspect.
The answer would be easily. The armed services in the US have been turning people away since the crash in '08. At one point there was an almost 2 year long waiting list to go to boot camp for the air force. There are a lot of people who need jobs who'd happily join the military if the recruiting quotas went up driving standards back down.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Simon_Jester »

Hm. An interesting side-effect. Having crashed the economy, the neocons would now have plenty of troops to pursue an aggressive foreign policy... if only they had the money, which they don't on account of crashing the economy, or the political support, which they don't on account of crashing the economy.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Sky Captain »

With conventional means Iran couldn't block the straights for long, but what if for some reason iranian regime is about to collapse and it decides to go out with a bang and launches suprise attack against Gulf oil infrastructure to cause as much damage as possible. Although unlikely to happen, but what would be the consequences of such action? Do Iranian military have capability to actually cause serious damage to foreign oil installations in gulf region and disrupt significant fraction of global oil supply for several months or longer?
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

For the love of anything, it is "straits", not "straights".
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

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Sky Captain wrote:With conventional means Iran couldn't block the straights for long, but what if for some reason iranian regime is about to collapse and it decides to go out with a bang and launches suprise attack against Gulf oil infrastructure to cause as much damage as possible. Although unlikely to happen, but what would be the consequences of such action? Do Iranian military have capability to actually cause serious damage to foreign oil installations in gulf region and disrupt significant fraction of global oil supply for several months or longer?
I know they have some missiles for that kind of action. There was an explosion at a missile base a few weeks ago that ruined a couple of dozen of those suckers, makes you wonder...
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Broken »

cosmicalstorm wrote: I know they have some missiles for that kind of action. There was an explosion at a missile base a few weeks ago that ruined a couple of dozen of those suckers, makes you wonder...
IIRC, the missile base that had the explosion was a research site for ballistic missiles, not anti-ship missiles which I do not recall being mentioned. Of course, I could easily be wrong. China is the only country I have heard of as actively researching anti-ship ballistic missiles. I don't know how much unused or under-used global oil tanker tonnage is out there, but I bet those things take a good long time to build. It might be easier to hit a big oil pumping station, but sink a tanker in the right place and you have a massive navigation hazard.

On the other hand, if you are asking about ballistic missiles to attack oil infrastructure, they might have been on-site. I don't recall if the base the explosion took place at was only/primarily research or it was a missile base with a research wing, if the Iranians even separate those types of depots and research stations. Given the threat of bombing raids, I would think you disperse your assets; although then you have to spread your AA net more as well. The devil, as always, is in the details.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by cosmicalstorm »

Broken wrote:
cosmicalstorm wrote: I know they have some missiles for that kind of action. There was an explosion at a missile base a few weeks ago that ruined a couple of dozen of those suckers, makes you wonder...
IIRC, the missile base that had the explosion was a research site for ballistic missiles, not anti-ship missiles which I do not recall being mentioned. Of course, I could easily be wrong. China is the only country I have heard of as actively researching anti-ship ballistic missiles. I don't know how much unused or under-used global oil tanker tonnage is out there, but I bet those things take a good long time to build. It might be easier to hit a big oil pumping station, but sink a tanker in the right place and you have a massive navigation hazard.

On the other hand, if you are asking about ballistic missiles to attack oil infrastructure, they might have been on-site. I don't recall if the base the explosion took place at was only/primarily research or it was a missile base with a research wing, if the Iranians even separate those types of depots and research stations. Given the threat of bombing raids, I would think you disperse your assets; although then you have to spread your AA net more as well. The devil, as always, is in the details.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Skgoa »

What good would ballistic missiles even do? They should be able to hit most targets with standard artillery and air-to-ground rockets.

Bakustra wrote:The tenor of these responses shows exactly why Iran would be developing nuclear weapons and why these sanctions can really only ever be ineffectual or evil- though the brain trust that runs this benighted, wretched country no doubt will continue to keep their eyes screwed up and their fingers in their ears until the first generation to have this explained to them by college professors manages to reach the ears of the powerful. I figure that should happen in about 30 years or so.
Let me add to that the following:
Am I the only one who remembers that the situation is still "the US is threatening Iran with economic annihilation, so they said 'then we are going to make it as painful for you as we can'"? Some people here should get of their high horse. It's not even a real threat, since it's obvious the other big oil and gas imptorters simply won't impose embargos. So yeah, empty threats all around with a sprinkle of extra dickishness on the US side. *yawn*
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Justforfun000 »

I'm a little surprised at the Iran government because while they are certainly not the worst, most backwards society in the world..they still have many relatively secular/democratic leanings in spite of their harsh social values they impose. They are not poor, they aren't powerless and quite frankly..they should know better.

They have the capability to be in the big leagues as a respected, wealthy nation and it's sad to see that they can't break out of this combative stage with "da evil WEST".

As someone mentioned above..the stupidest thing you can do is provoke a confrontation involving something like oil that practically all countries value as liquid gold. Sure you can dick-wave about your own personal stores but you want to cry and stomp your feet when sanctions interfere with your business because you won't play fair with everyone? Tough. That's one of the very FEW methods we can use to actually enforce civility in the world.

Once they start threatening to interfere with other countries free trade, they are foolishly blustering. Even the biggest supporters will not back them up completely if they overstep their bounds. So I'm uncertain whether the leaders of Iran are just angry and being melodramatic with the hope that they'll get some concessions just to avoid the aggravation of intervention or if they are batso in truth.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by MKSheppard »

LINKY
Iran’s military yesterday warned one of the US navy’s biggest aircraft carriers not to return to the Gulf, in an escalating showdown over Tehran’s nuclear drive that could pitch into armed confrontation.

“We advise and insist that this warship not return to its former base in the Gulf,” said Brigadier General Ataollah Salehi, Iran’s armed forces chief.

“We don’t have the intention of repeating our warning, and we warn only once,” he was quoted as saying by the armed forces’ official website.

The US carrier would face the “full force” of the Iranian navy if it returns, a navy spokesman, Commodore Mahmoud Mousavi, told Iran’s Arabic television service Al-Alam.
Aw, they're so cute when they act like this!
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Bakustra »

So why is it that the US should have the right to cut off free trade and Iran should not, Justforfun?

Meanwhile, I see that Shep is still the quintessential imperialist: ignorant, contemptuous, enamored with violence, and delusional.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by MKSheppard »

Bakustra wrote:Meanwhile, I see that Shep is still the quintessential imperialist: ignorant, contemptuous, enamored with violence, and delusional.
Take a look at a map -- the Gulf the Iranian leadership is referring to is the Persian/Arabian Gulf; which is somewhere between 100-150~ nautical miles wide depending on where you look. The Straits of Hormuz is about 26~ nm wide at it's narrowest.

Consider that the Iranians can only claim 12~nm as their exclusive territorial waters....

Heh, yeah.

Additionally, consider where the US 5th Fleet is headquartered, and where US leaning states such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Quatar etc have some coastlines...
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Lonestar »

Bakustra wrote:So why is it that the US should have the right to cut off free trade and Iran should not, Justforfun?

Meanwhile, I see that Shep is still the quintessential imperialist: ignorant, contemptuous, enamored with violence, and delusional.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Are you fucking kidding me? "Ignorant"? Because of...what, exactly, in the context of the article he posted?

And by the way, the difference between the US cutting off free trade and Iran is that the US doesn't threaten to use indiscriminate military force to block off geographical locale that, at best, it only has 50% claim to.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by MKSheppard »

Link
Iran's parliament said Wednesday it was preparing a bill that would prohibit all foreign warships from entering the Persian Gulf unless they received permission from the Iranian navy.

The bill, disclosed by the the semiofficial Fars News Agency, surfaced a day after Iran’s armed forces commander warned a U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier not to return to the gulf, remarks that rattled commodities markets and helped drive up oil prices.

The proposed legislation suggested that at least some Iranian officials are serious about trying to stop the U.S. Navy from entering the oil-rich gulf waters. Iranian analysts said the bill probably would not have been introduced if it were not supported by higher authorities.

“If the military vessels and warships of any country want to pass via the Strait of Hormuz without coordination and permission of Iran’s navy forces, they should be stopped by the Iranian armed forces,” Fars quoted lawmaker Nader Qazipour as saying in explaining the bill. He noted that Iran regards the strait as part of its territorial waters and said the bill would be presented to parliamentary leaders next week.

Iranian Foreign Minister Ahmad Vahidi restated Iran's position that “transnational forces” have no place in the region. Vahidi also said Iran is willing to organize joint military drills with neighboring countries, Fars reported Wednesday.

The news agency, which has ties to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, claimed that the carrier USS John C. Stennis, which steamed out of the Persian Gulf last week, had escaped while being “chased by Iranian warships.”
Awwwwwwww.......they're so cute like I said before, when they act like this!
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Sidewinder »

Iran's parliament said Wednesday it was preparing a bill that would prohibit all foreign warships from entering the Persian Gulf unless they received permission from the Iranian navy.
Way to go, Iran. Instead of you versus the United States, you've made it you versus the United States, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq- all of whom have navies, and all of whom now have a further reason to bomb you back to the Stone Age.
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Re: Iran may block oil supply.

Post by Pelranius »

What does the average man on the street in Iran make of all of this grandstanding by their government?
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