FLASHBACK
Offices of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Commienist Party of the Zenobian Onion
Moosecow, Zenobia
May 3, 1962
The May Day celebrations had wound down, and Comrade Spetchkov, People's Commissar for Industry, now had time to investigate some of the claims made by Dr. von Evilstein, at Bearzhnev's orders. Pursuant to this, he had summoned Syrgy Pavylyvych to Moosecow; reports said that the rocket scientist had wound up making a bumpy flight in one of the Cosmodrome's own training aircraft to get here as quickly as possible. With the appointment coming up, Spetchkov decided to try and control his serious doubts about the general viability of the space program, in order to learn as much as possible about the man Pavylyvych himself.
Give the man rope to hang himself, should he show the inclination.
Pavylyvych entered at the secretary's announcement. Spetchkov began with a brusque question, to try and catch the man off guard.
"What do you think of the general secretary?"
"I am... highly grateful for his support of the program."
"More generally."
"More generally, the broader character of the policy changes he has enacted? Sir, it is not my place as a junior Party member to pass judgment on the doings of a senior member of the Politburo."
Noncommittal. Hmph. Then again, about what would be expected from a man who was not especially political, who knew anything about Spetchkov's own reputation, and who was not a complete fool- and from Pavylyvych's own dossier, any tendencies he might have towards political outspokenness had probably been beaten out of him at Kylhima. There were reports that he had been one of many victims of 'Comrade Bear's' beating-stick.
Spetchkov nodded slightly, then pulled a document from his desk.
"Some among the Politburo have recently received a proposal for a lunar landing program based on your new Voskhod capsule. Here is a summary of what's being looked at, with a target date. What do you think?"
The Politburo man handed the rocket scientist a single sheet of paper. Von Evilstein was not named, but it was a reasonably accurate
précis of the lunar-Voskhod orbit-rendevous plan he'd proposed. Spetchkov's investigation had confirmed that large parts of von Evilstein's presentation of the program were drawn from earlier documents composed by Pavylyvych. It was not entirely reassuring that von Evilstein hadn't done his own work on the subject- not so much that he had improvised while pressed for time in Moosecow, as that he had apparently made little or no independent investigation of the matter in his years out of favor and out of control of the program. But that notwithstanding, the idea of a 1967 moon landing was intriguing and merited investigation.
Spetchkov watched Pavylvych closely, and saw some very informative things as a result. The moment at which the rocket scientist first grasped exactly what was in the proposal was obvious. His eyes widened, his lips parted, and for a fraction of a second he simply stared straight forward. He looked more than a little like a man who'd just been shot. After he regained his composure, his face locked down to an even tighter degree- though the rocket scientist's poker face was not good by Politburo standards. With the air of a man proceeding through darkness by the light of his burning bridges, Pavylyvych answered Spetchkov's question with one word.
"Nyet. It could be done, but not on this schedule."
Spetchkov's brow furrowed. "Why not?"
"At a minimum, we need the rocket and the capsule. Assuming that all research and development work proceeds at an unusually fast and efficient rate, and with no further setbacks, Voskhod will be ready for test launches some time in Fall 1963. Getting it up to near-peak reliability will require at least a dozen launches, many of them unmanned: two more years for that, and we'll have a capsule that
can be sent to the moon with reasonable safety some time in Fall 1965. Risk of failure on a lunar mission due to mechanical defects in a modified Voskhod will still be significant, I would eyeball it as roughly one in three."
"Is this not enough?"
"Ah, sir, if you would allow me to consider this, I believe I can assess the viability of the date in more depth."
"Go on."
"Well, as a thought experiment, let us assume there are no further setbacks, every launch goes according to plan-" was there a cynical, ironically humorous twinkle in Pavylyvych's eye? "-and unrealistically high funding; as if money were no object and the space program received top priority for specialists and materials, even above military programs."
The Politburo man frowned. "While you're at it, you might assume that it rains soup, or that the Murcans will elect the head of their Commienist Party in '64."
"I know this is most unrealistically favorable, but I think the exercise will illustrate the problems we would face in trying to meet this schedule, sir."
"Very well, go on."
"Proton cannot be begun before Spring 1963. Getting it up to snuff will require two years' research at the optimistic pace I describe: again, it cannot be man-rated before Spring 1965, at which point we can
begin launching things to the moon without a high risk per launch of failure- something down to one in ten, or better. We will need a significant program of lunar mapping from close-range radar and lunar probes before we can identify suitable landing sites, and I would
like to test robotic landers on the surface first. That would consume the use of our launch infrastructure going into 1966 easily, and possibly into 1967, with only a bare minimum left over for the actual manned launches necessary, on which more later."
"In short, we must remember that there will be no rocket to launch anything to the moon before Spring 1965, and no capsule safe enough to make a trip to the moon- considerably more challenging than a trip to orbit- survivable before Fall 1965. In addition to this, to do a lunar Voskhod mission we will need to develop- at exceptional expense- a lightweight lunar lander that can be handled by one man. The pilot must, by radar and by eye, steer a rocket-powered vehicle from a speed of roughly one kilometer per second to a safe landing on the lunar surface. This is a challenge in some ways like flying a helicopter, but at least an order of magnitude more difficult; having a copilot to assist greatly simplifies the process but this is not possible for the lunar-Voskhod plan."
"Can any man do it?"
"The landing? Difficult for the cosmonaut, but possible if the hardware can be created in time- which is the truly difficult part. The cosmonauts' skill often surprises me, and there are suitable candidates to pilot such a lander. The most obvious man I can think of would be among the new cadets, Porfiriy Yebanov."
Spetchkov snorted.
Comrade Cosmonaut Fucked? "You are joking."
"No, sir, there is indeed a candidate cosmonaut of that name, as can be confirmed in our training records. The man has considerable experience in precision helicopter maneuvering and who shows great promise at extravehicular activity. If I had to assign any man to land on the moon in 1967 based on the lunar-Voskhod-orbit-rendevous plan, that man would indeed be... Yebanov."
"Very well. So, could you build the lander?"
"With the aforesaid funding, work on the lunar lander
could run in parallel with all the other parts of the program and be completed by, say, mid-1965,
if everyone involved surpasses themselves. More realistically, it would not be ready until 1966, even with unlimited funds."
"What else?"
"Well, an auxiliary support module for Voskhod- another development stage, roughly the same timescale."
"So, the hardware would be together by 1965 or 1966, you say?"
"...I do not think this schedule is realistic; money doesn't grow on trees. But if everything went perfectly, which has never happened on any engineering project in my experience... we could have lunar-capable hardware by 1966. Then there would be the matter of testing."
"Yes?"
"There are a number of hardware test milestones that we really
must pass before trying to put a man on the moon. We must test orbital docking systems for the rendevous- that can be done in parallel with the Voskhod testing and orbital manned flights to a large extent, though. We must make sure our lunar lander design works, both in space and in the descent stage as it drops toward the moon. We
must test the long-term survivability of the modified capsule and the viability of the booster rockets' ability to set it on course for the moon and again to bring it safely to Earth. This will require a phased program of multiple manned missions using the lunar-Voskhod configuration... I would think, at least two or three missions flown in succession with the hardware, modifications being made to the systems after each to incorporate the lessons of the last, before a manned lunar landing could be undertaken with confidence of success."
"And
that would be the delay?"
"That would make it extremely difficult. If every single scheduled launch proceeded according to plan, with no failures that limited our ability to collect data and certainly no further losses of manned capsules that would force an extended period of reexamination and redesign on us, if money were no object and every engineer and technician worked like a Stakhanovite, it could...
barely be done, which I am actually surprised to say since I hadn't thought it would be possible even then. But who could plan on such favorable conditions?"
Spetchkov snorted again. "Indeed. Go on."
"Sir, in all seriousness, I would not ask for the magnitude of funding and materials priorities that it would take to make this possible, certainly not without showing results first- and much of the money would be needed up front in the next two fiscal years, to pay for several extremely complicated research and development programs, all running in parallel at great expense. Any major setback in any of the programs, such as we have had several times in the past, would have ruinous effects on the schedule. This includes setbacks not under the space program's control, such as the recent difficulties with alloy tube production at Derevyna Gaduyinko."
"So, you say it is impossible to do this in five years? Why do the Murcans not face similar difficulties?"
"I'm sure they do, sir. A deadline of late 1969 for their landings, such as they set themselves in their propaganda, gives them significantly more flexibility. I do not know if they can meet even that deadline, but I know that if they can, we can with expenditure of comparable resources. As for the idea of a late 1967 lunar-Voskhod landing... With great good luck and a total commitment by the state, it would... not violate the laws of nature for us to be able to do it, but-"
"What?"
"Even ignoring the political impossibility of such a large budget, there are major issues of personnel management, because there is
no room in such a schedule for any failures, setbacks, or failed tests. It would require every man, from the project chiefs down to the machinists, to perform every day as they do on their best days; it would require constant shuffling of several very challenging technical programs, a level of close supervision of subordinates that in my experience would be physically impossible unless there were thirty-six hours in a day... I know I couldn't make it happen. If there is any man who could, it would be a pleasure to work for him, sir."
"So, you would have us replace you?"
"Sir," and to Spetchkov's practiced eye the look in Pavylyvych's face was desperate behind the mask of self-control, "if we are to commit to a manned lunar landing in 1967, then without going into personalities, I do not know of any rocket scientist in the world, here or in Murca, who could keep the program on track at that pace. If ordered to try, I will try, but I tell you that failure to meet the schedule is virtually certain, even given unlimited funding. I don't know who suggested the idea to you, but I suspect they either have very little knowledge of the practical difficulties involved, or are trying to mislead you with false promises."
Spetchkov said nothing for a moment, thinking before he spoke. "Your comments are noted, Comrade Pavlyvych. Thank you, and you may go."
I must speak on this at the meeting of the Central Committee. It does not reflect well on von Evilstein... It would not be good if the opposition to Shroomanski were to fix its chariot to von Evilstein, thinking him a rising star, only to find that the man was another Lysenko.
Pavylyvych dipped his head stiffly and shuffled towards the door. As he walked out of the room, a Politburo secretary-agent heard the Chief Designer mutter under his breath,
"we will all vanish without a trace."
