Red Europe (RAR!)

[K. A. Pital]

Really? I heared a different story about this area.

Does not matter what you heard, unless you 'll back it up.

Soviets secrety move in and fortify the area around Chenkufeng - Japan protests - Soviets stay

How could they secretly move in a territory where the Japanese were? Oh right, the Japanese were NOT on Zaozernaya height. Moreover, the territories were ruled by the Bejing treaty. The Japanese had nothing there, and they knew it damn well.

Japan attacks the soviets, Japan looses , Soviets keep the Chengkufeng area and rename it Zaozernaya.

The USSR had fortifications there. That takes time. Japan did nothing until the warmongers in Strike Group North decided that it might be able to run the master plan of capturing Siberia and Lake Baikal.

Bigger Japanese losses in the 1939 have negative effects on their war efforts in china.

Not really. What "bigger losses"? The USSR did not take thousands of square kilometeres in a mass offensive into Manchukou, for fuck's sake! It didn't even keep a large mass of troops there until Japan started grabbing for land. Did the USSR have a plan for grabbing Manchukuo up to the Japanese coast? If so, it would do that, since the Japanese got their asses handed to them. The USSR however never took anything more than it's initial territorial claims which were the points of conflict. What "bigger losses"? Of course if japan goes into an all-out war with the USSR, it'll be fucked. But the reality is it didn't, and the lunacy of North Strike Group was abandoned.

And Japan started the mass hostilities on Khasan too, not the USSR. The USSR merely chose the hills as border demarcations, fortified them and... after some time the japanese thought they could take them. Tough luck, they got spanked.

Do you really think the japanese will attack pearl when the soviets are not at war with an european power?

Um... why would the USSR not be at war with a European power? You're pathetic, aren't you?

[PeZook]

Bigger Japanese losses in the 1939 have negative effects on their war efforts in china. The "Szechwan Boys"(Soviet version of the Flying Tigers) will be a bigger threat in this scenario. Do you really think the japanese will attack pearl when the soviets are not at war with an european power?

Why not? Pearl Harbor:

1) Was brought about by Japanese desire to destroy American capability to interfere with their objectives.

2) Did not soak up significant resources of the land army, like recruits, ammunition or vehicles. Only small, elite marine units are required to knock out American bases in the pacific (except the Phillipnes), and the most important operations are the fleet actions, anyway.

3) Were critical if Japan was to continue it's occupation of China, since the US Navy would outclass the IJN completely within three years, and pretty much be able to do whatever the hell it wanted.

Japan simply wouldn't be able to realize it's main strategic objectives if the US was capable of interfering with their resource imports. Hostilities were an inevitability - at the very least, Japan would need to take the Phillipines. If they don't, then in three to four years Americans have more than twenty fleet and light carriers in the Pacific, and can dictate whatever they want to Japan. Unless this alternative also posits that the Two Ocean Navy act was not passed in Congress, and the US also abstained from supporting chinese nationalists.

[K. A. Pital]

On Khasan: the legal part:
15 July, 1938. The Japanese representative in the USSR visited the Narkomindel and demanded to move the Soviet border troops out of the heights near Khasan (Z. and B. hills). The Soviet government provided the documents: the Hunchhun Agreement of 1886 with China and the adjacent map, which undeniably shown the territory as Soviet. The Japanese emissary went away not being able to find any substantiation tohis claims. But on 20 July the Japanese Ambassador Sigemitsu restated the territorial claims to the heights. When again confronted with the treaty, the Ambassador said that if Japan's demands will not be fulfilled, it will use force.

The USSR has drawn it's border guards to Khasan in response to Manchukuo territorial claims on the place and thus the Soviet Union wanted to protect the russian territorial holds, not because it was readying for an expansion into Japan.

1938.07.24, Sunday. The USSR issues directives for war readiness to 118, 119sp and 212kp regiments. Blucher sends a commission to investigate a possible border infringement of Manchukuo by Soviet border guards. The comissin found that they briefly infringed it (during their stay the Japanese gendarme was killed), and Blucher sent a request to Voroshilov to arrest those guilty of infringement and provocation.

Then the Japanese attacked the Soviet border guards in an attempt to take the hills.

[Thunderfire]

On Khasan: the legal part:
15 July, 1938. The Japanese representative in the USSR visited the Narkomindel and demanded to move the Soviet border troops out of the heights near Khasan (Z. and B. hills). The Soviet government provided the documents: the Hunchhun Agreement of 1886 with China and the adjacent map, which undeniably shown the territory as Soviet. The Japanese emissary went away not being able to find any substantiation tohis claims.

Ok looks like like the documentation about the battle fucked up there(It said that the territory was chinese and not soviet). I concede the point.

[Thunderfire]

Why not? Pearl Harbor:

1) Was brought about by Japanese desire to destroy American capability to interfere with their objectives.

2) Did not soak up significant resources of the land army, like recruits, ammunition or vehicles. Only small, elite marine units are required to knock out American bases in the pacific (except the Phillipnes), and the most important operations are the fleet actions, anyway.

3) Were critical if Japan was to continue it's occupation of China, since the US Navy would outclass the IJN completely within three years, and pretty much be able to do whatever the hell it wanted.

We all know that the japanese signed their own death sentence with their attack on Pearl. The resonable minds in japan knew this and I expect them to get the upper hand in this scenario. But I am probably expecting to much here.

[K. A. Pital]

The resonable minds in japan knew this and I expect them to get the upper hand in this scenario. But I am probably expecting to much here.

The harder is the situation for the Japanese, the more they would look to South-East Asian military expansion as the only way. And the US and Britain stand in the way of that, so... too bad.

[PeZook]

We all know that the japanese signed their own death sentence with their attack on Pearl. The resonable minds in japan knew this and I expect them to get the upper hand in this scenario. But I am probably expecting to much here.

Unfortunately, Japan is completely fucked either way.

Either they don't attack the US, which means they have to abandon their imperial ambitions, or they take the chance of forcing the US to the negotiating table.

Why should they abandon their imperial ambitions? Because if they don't outright attack the US, the US Navy will become the supreme force on the Pacific Ocean, which means Japan will have no choice but to obey American wishes. If they do, then they will loose anyway, so, well...

Their only winning move is not to play