Re: Let's play: Buzz Aldrin's Race Into Space
Posted: 2011-05-25 05:29pm
What missions do you want to schedule for spring 1960? Be precise, I am trying to set up a simulation here.
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Syrgy takes a deep breath.OmegaChief wrote:Pulling back the firing pin of his pistol the Commissar nods
Comrade von Evilstien, my decision is made, you will not be making the choice for the direction of the program this time, Comrade Pavylyvych will be acting head until I send my report to the superiors, you however will stay on as an Advisor, after you personally clear up Launch Pad B, I make myself clear da?
And Comrade Pavylyvych, prepare your plan, and do not fail, otherwise your places will switch again, we are clear da?
"As to future plans for the spring of 1960, I must consider the matter closely. I will have a plan for spring 1960 by tomorrow morning Moscow time*, but since I don't know how much of our budget will be left after these latest disasters, it will have to come in the form of a tentative plan."Simon_Jester wrote:PLAN PAVYLYVYCH, FALL 1959:
For the love of Marx, cancel those manned launches!
Budget: 34 MB
5 Teams research on A-Series Rocket: 10 MB
5 Teams research on Vostok Capsule: 5 MB
Begin Booster Stage Program (long term R&D): 15 MB
Assign all cosmonauts to the Vostok program as one-man flight crews; obviously, none of the flight crews will be assigned missions this season. The manned spaceflight program will be delayed until such time as I can get R&D to the point where it wouldn't be more cost-effective to just send them up in coffins.
Total cost: 30 MB
Schedule no launches for Spring 1960; my earlier prediction that we could not get a manned capsule ready before 1961 without taking unconscionable risks seems borne out by our reliability problems. I still hold out some hope for Fall 1960, but that is the earliest I can expect a manned launch at this time.
The rest of our funds will be held in reserve- we don't have enough money to repair the pad this season, not without compromising critical development work. And there wouldn't be any point in doing so anyway, since there is no way in Hell that we should be doing any more launches in the upcoming season until we get the bugs hammered out of the rocket.
GAAAAH!
Code: Select all
X ≥ 85% -> 0 teams, 0 MB
85% > X > 80% -> 1 team, 2 MB
80% ≥ X > 76% -> 2 teams, 4 MB
76% ≥ X > 72% -> 3 teams, 6 MB
72% ≥ X > 68% -> 4 teams, 8 MB
68% ≥ X -> 5 teams, 10MB
Simon_Jester wrote:Slightly revised version of the plan, extended into Spring 1960:
(At some point, PeZook, the program will get complex enough, and the contingencies messy enough, that we can only run one turn per day. It sucks, but there's so many things that can go wrong and right once we're fiddling around with our heavy-lift rockets and such that I doubt we'll be able to plan ahead in detail two or three turns at a time. Especially since that cancels out our ability to react to random events)
PLAN PAVYLYVYCH, July 1959-July-1960:
Fall 1959: Budget: 34 MB
For the love of Marx, cancel those manned launches!
5 Teams research on A-Series Rocket: 10 MB
5 Teams research on Vostok Capsule: 5 MB
Begin Booster Stage Program (long term R&D): 15 MB
Assign all cosmonauts to the Vostok program as one-man flight crews; obviously, none of the flight crews will be assigned missions this season. The manned spaceflight program will be delayed until such time as I can get R&D to the point where it wouldn't be more cost-effective to just send them up in coffins.
Total cost: 30 MB
Schedule no launches for Spring 1960; my earlier prediction that we could not get a manned capsule ready before 1961 without taking unconscionable risks seems borne out by our reliability problems. I still hold out some hope for Fall 1960, but that is the earliest I can expect a manned launch at this time.
The rest of our funds will be held in reserve- we don't have enough money to repair the pad this season, not without compromising critical development work. And there wouldn't be any point in doing so anyway, since there is no way in Hell that we should be doing any more launches in the upcoming season until we get the bugs hammered out of the rocket.
GAAAAH!
Spring 1960: Budget: 4+?? MB
Roughly how much money will we be getting? I am going to assume a budget of 55 MB or so.
Unless A-Series rocket has reached max reliability, press ahead with A-Series rocket research. Maximum R&D is 85%; if reliability of rocket is approaching this figure, fund research to the following levels, as a function of reliability figure X:
5 teams on Vostok capsule, 5 MBCode: Select all
X ≥ 85% -> 0 teams, 0 MB 85% > X > 80% -> 1 team, 2 MB 80% ≥ X > 76% -> 2 teams, 4 MB 76% ≥ X > 72% -> 3 teams, 6 MB 72% ≥ X > 68% -> 4 teams, 8 MB 68% ≥ X -> 5 teams, 10MB
Repair Pad B, 20 MB
Review reliability of rocket and capsule.
Schedule 1 unmanned suborbital Vostok launch for Fall 1960.
IF after this research both the A-Series rocket has reached 80% reliability AND and the Vostok capsule has reached 70% reliability,
THEN schedule a manned suborbital Vostok launch for Fall 1960. Select NIKOV as primary crew, TITOV as backup crew.
If the unmanned suborbital shot fails, we will simply scrub this launch.
OTHERWISE, IF the A-Series reliability is still less than 80% after the Spring 1960 research, AND/OR the Vostok reliability is still less than 70% after the Spring 1960 research, THEN schedule an unmanned orbital Vostok launch for Fall 1960.
That's all I can think of with real confidence at the moment. I would rather prefer to get a good look at the situation in Spring 1960 tomorrow and give you a final budget, but that should give us money for doing things in the fall and still proceed with the program at some reasonable pase.
Code: Select all
X ≥ 85% -> 0 teams, 0 MB
85% > X > 80% -> 1 team, 2 MB
80% ≥ X > 76% -> 2 teams, 4 MB
76% ≥ X > 72% -> 3 teams, 6 MB
72% ≥ X > 68% -> 4 teams, 8 MB
68% ≥ X -> 5 teams, 10MB
Yeah, if you go to the trouble of specifying those conditions, I will follow themSimon_Jester wrote:If I give instructions in the form of conditional statements about reliability ratings for a turn, will you follow them, PeZook?
EDIT: In that case, simply run through my plan for Fall 1959, and I'll work out Spring 1960 in due time.
I might make go/no-go decisions on the basis of what the reliability rating is after the R&D on a rocket, though.PeZook wrote:Yeah, if you go to the trouble of specifying those conditions, I will follow themSimon_Jester wrote:If I give instructions in the form of conditional statements about reliability ratings for a turn, will you follow them, PeZook?
EDIT: In that case, simply run through my plan for Fall 1959, and I'll work out Spring 1960 in due time.
I'm just saying there's no need to, since I will be letting you decide on a per-season basis.
Code: Select all
Current funds: 78 megabucks
Current astronaut roster:
MODEMJR - CAP 3, LM 0, EVA 2, DOCK 1, END 2
FLASHHEART - CAP 1, LM 0, EVA 4, DOCK 1, END 1
CUNTSER - CAP 3, LM 3, EVA 1, DOCK 0, END 1
MCCAIN - CAP 4, LM 1, EVA 2, DOCK 0, END 1
KELLY - CAP 3, LM 1, EVA 0, DOCK 2, END 2
HARDBEEF - CAP 3, LM 0, EVA 0, DOCK 1, END 2
OHJESUS - CAP 4, LM 1, EVA 0, DOCK 1, END 1
Programs running: Explorer, Atlas, Mercury
Launch pads: 2
Scheduled missions: Launch Pad A, unmanned suborbital, Mercury/Atlas
Launch Pad B, unmanned earth orbital, Mercury/Atlas
Code: Select all
Current funds: 92 megabucks
Current astronaut roster:
KARZANOVSKI - CAP 4, LM 0, EVA 0, DOCK 1, END 2 (VOSTOK/V)
IVANOV - CAP 4, LM 2, EVA 0, DOCK 1, END 1 (VOSTOK/IV)
FAAABIO - CAP 2, LM 0, EVA 2, DOCK 0, END 3 (VOSTOK/I)
DOSTAROVASKI - CAP 2, LM 0, EVA 1, DOCK 1, END 3 (VOSTOK/III)
IVANOVICH - CAP 2, LM 1, EVA 3, DOCK 2, END 3 (VOSTOK/VI)
NIKOV - CAP 4, LM 0, EVA 2, DOCK 0, END 2 (VOSTOK/VII)
TITOV - CAP 3, LM 1, EVA 1, DOCK 0, END 1 (VOSTOK/II)
Programs running: Sputnik, A-Series, Vostok, Booster stage
Launch pads: 1
Scheduled missions: None