Seas acidifying as fast as 55 mya

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scottlowther
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Re: Seas as Acidic as They Were 65 Milllion Years Ago.

Post by scottlowther »

Alyrium Denryle wrote:
That's because we don't have near enough nuclear plants. There is nothing about "energy" that screams "carbon footprint."
It does with our current technology use.
Then that's your problem. *Lack* of technological innovation and employment of proven technologies.


Was it cost-effective and easily scalable?
"Not yet" and "yes." Pretty good for a first technology demonstrator.

The loop is not closed. All you do is take cabon we sequester from the atmosphere (read: all of the carbon used in any of our manufactured goods is ultimately derived from CO2 sequestered by plants from the atmosphere)
and send it back into the atmosphere.
That pretty much *defines* a closed loop. Grow a plant (taking CO2 from the air). Turn the plant into oil. Burn the plant (putting CO2 into the air). Grow a plant. Repeat as needed.

You dont reduce emissions from that at all.
Agreed. You effectively *eliminate* them. Right now we're taking carbon out of the ground and putting it into the air. With a nuke/TDP system, you'd take carbon out of the air and put it back into the air, with minimal shift one way or the other.
You reduce CO2 in the atmosphere by sequestering it long term, and then not re-releasing it.
Which nuke/TDP (or SPS/TDP) would facilitate indirectly by providing *vast* energy reserves with no need to pull another gallon of crude out of the ground. With vast energy at your fingertips, you can grow all the forests you like (since rich folk don't need to burn 'em to stay warm) and seed iron and whatnot in the ocean for the plankton.
Basic thermodynamics you did fail.
What is this, a forum full of children? Seems few enough people here can disagree without insults. It's grown tiresome with considerable speed.
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Re: Seas as Acidic as They Were 65 Milllion Years Ago.

Post by scottlowther »

Formless wrote:You know, alternatively as a more stopgap measure we could apply the increased albedo stratagem to glaciers and the earth's poles.
Three problems:
1) The albedo of polar ice and glaciers is already just about as bright as it can get. Reflectors would not add much.
2) The sun is at a low angle at the pols, meaning that reflectors simply placed on the ground, ice or water will be much less effective.
3) You failed to include a childish insult in your post. Therefore you, like me, are not a good fit here.
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Re: Seas as Acidic as They Were 65 Milllion Years Ago.

Post by Aaron »

Dude, insults are part of posting here. In fact I'm pretty sure it's in the boad announcements. You might find it tiresome (as I do) but you won't get anywhere complaining about it.
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Re: Seas as Acidic as They Were 65 Milllion Years Ago.

Post by Formless »

scottlowther wrote:1) The albedo of polar ice and glaciers is already just about as bright as it can get. Reflectors would not add much.
Isn't part of the problem, IIRC, that the poles and other glaciers are getting darker because of dust and other pollution?
3) You failed to include a childish insult in your post. Therefore you, like me, are not a good fit here.
You haven't see me go after someone I don't have some respect for. And considering how little you've been around, you should feel honored I already think well of you. But yes, this forum doesn't try to fight a losing battle against the Greater Internet Fuckwad Theory (GIFTTM) like most do so long as people are honest and put some thought into their posts. I didn't write the rules, that's just how things are. Just out of curiosity what did you think the forum's motto "Get your fill of sci-fi, science, and mockery of stupid people" meant? But don't worry, you're smart enough you probably won't get targetted much. Aly's just got anger management issues. :P

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Re: Seas as Acidic as They Were 65 Milllion Years Ago.

Post by scottlowther »

Formless wrote:
scottlowther wrote:1) The albedo of polar ice and glaciers is already just about as bright as it can get. Reflectors would not add much.
Isn't part of the problem, IIRC, that the poles and other glaciers are getting darker because of dust and other pollution?
Sure. But covering slightly dirty snow with a white blanket is not nearly as effective as covering dark water or dark plants or dark *whatever* with a white blanket. And sadly, our national - nevermind planetary - economy is not in sufficient shape to tackle *every* problem. So you have to priorize. Do you put a square meter of reflector where it will reflect the equivalent of 100 kilowatts, or where it'll reflect 1 kilowatt?
Just out of curiosity what did you think the forum's motto "Get your fill of sci-fi, science, and mockery of stupid people" meant?
Given the amount of far-left-wing extremism I'm seeing here, it comes off as something of cognitive dissonance, or perhaps that "irony" I hear about so much from all the cool kids these days.
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Re: Seas as Acidic as They Were 65 Milllion Years Ago.

Post by Alyrium Denryle »

Then that's your problem. *Lack* of technological innovation and employment of proven technologies.
Well duh. Unfortunately this is not going to change any time soon. Why? Because there are luddites in power who are not going to get lined up against a wall and shot soon enough.
"Not yet" and "yes." Pretty good for a first technology demonstrator.
Nice. But it does mean that building more nuclear plants a few decades ago would not have avoided this problem. Nor does it make them a magic bullet now, or necessarily in the future.

The answer is a combination of renewable power, wind, solar, tidal, and oceanic wave action as well as nuclear power. Combine this with large scale adoption of electric cars and changes in our agricultural practices and we might have a working solution.

All of that however is predicated on decreasing consumption without decreasing quality of life. This is of course very easily doable, but no one wants to do it.

That pretty much *defines* a closed loop. Grow a plant (taking CO2 from the air). Turn the plant into oil. Burn the plant (putting CO2 into the air). Grow a plant. Repeat as needed.
Except idiot, that we pull most of that material from the ground or from trees out of long term sequestration. We also burn sources of carbon faster than plants can sequester it. That is why we have a problem in first place dumbass. Our production of atmospheric carbon dioxide is larger than the annual capacity of the carbon sinks.

If we did this in order to say... power all of our vehicles, we would degrade the capacity of our carbon sinks.
seed iron and whatnot in the ocean for the plankton.

WHich does not work. The iron does not remain in sufficient concentrations to boost phytoplankton for more than a week, it would require staggering amounts of iron in order to maintain phytoplankton growth, which will fuck up the entire ocean ecosystem. Changes in chemical cycles are not any ecosystem's friend. Oxygen depletion, release if nitrous oxide from the decomposition of the dead plankton... The list goes on. Fucking around with nutrients in aquatic systems is not good.

Take a look at what happens when we seed the ocean with another limiting nutrient. Nitrogen. The gulf coast dead zone. Algal blooms give off net O2 via photosynthesis during the day, but at night they take it up for cellular respiration and huge algal blooms like what will be created by iron seeding sufficient to create a large carbon sink will create huge hypoxic zones.


What is this, a forum full of children? Seems few enough people here can disagree without insults. It's grown tiresome with considerable speed.
I direct you to the marquee at the top of the forum. We are devoted to science, sci-fi, and mockery of stupid people.

However, I can address your arguments and insult you. You on the other hand do not address the arguments.
Last edited by Alyrium Denryle on 2010-02-24 07:35pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Seas as acidic as 55 mya

Post by Surlethe »

Split out tangent. Unlocked.
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Re: Seas as acidic as 55 mya

Post by Dominus Atheos »

Surlethe wrote:Split out tangent. Unlocked.
The original title said it was 65 million years ago.
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Re: Seas as acidic as 55 mya

Post by Alyrium Denryle »

Except idiot, that we pull most of that material from the ground or from trees out of long term sequestration. We also burn sources of carbon faster than plants can sequester it. That is why we have a problem in first place dumbass. Our production of atmospheric carbon dioxide is larger than the annual capacity of the carbon sinks.

If we did this in order to say... power all of our vehicles, we would degrade the capacity of our carbon sinks.
To put this another way.

We convert plant matter into burnable fuels (something you have not shown is actually feasible to do economically BTW). This is not 100% efficient. Ergo, we kill a carbon sink plant. That fuel gets used and converts a small fraction of the energy stored in the chemical bonds into work. We release all the CO2, but get back a small portion of the energy.

This forces us to convert more plants into fuels, thus reducing our carbon sinks. Because plant growth is rate limited, they take up CO2 slower than we will be dumping it into the atmosphere, and you will eventually requite outside input. Opening the system.

It will only reduce emissions if you can get the production of CO2, down below the limit of the carbon sinks. Something you have not established as being possible under your pie in the sky scenario.
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Re: Seas as Acidic as They Were 65 Milllion Years Ago.

Post by scottlowther »

Alyrium Denryle wrote: Nice. But it does mean that building more nuclear plants a few decades ago would not have avoided this problem. Nor does it make them a magic bullet now, or necessarily in the future.
An inability to think strategically is unbecoming. More nukes decades earlier would have raised the issue of fissile material decades earlier which would have led to increased research on finding sources of said fuel... decades earlier.

Alyrium Denryle wrote:The answer is a combination of renewable power, wind, solar, tidal, and oceanic wave action as well as nuclear power. Combine this with large scale adoption of electric cars and changes in our agricultural practices and we might have a working solution.
Yes, those are the Green talking points, but that doesn't make them reality. Jetliners do not fly on electricity. Sunlight does not self-assemble into plastic. The worlds population cannot afford to toss out their existing cars and buy all-new expensive electric cars. Wind and solar power (barring space based) are nice, but are certainly incapable of providing a growing worlds needs.

All of that however is predicated on decreasing consumption without decreasing quality of life. This is of course very easily doable, but no one wants to do it.
Because it's defeatist and leads to decay. Grow or die. Efficiency is good for cost-savings and starships, but it's a bad way to run a society.

Except idiot, that we ... we have a problem in first place dumbass.
Your sad little insults might pack a bit more of a sting if you learned how to use a "comma."




I direct you to the marquee at the top of the forum. We are devoted to science, sci-fi, and mockery of stupid people.
Which makes you a prime target, it would seem.
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Re: Seas as acidic as 55 mya

Post by Surlethe »

Dominus Atheos wrote:
Surlethe wrote:Split out tangent. Unlocked.
The original title said it was 65 million years ago.
Ah. But rereading, neither the new title nor the old title were accurate: The article says acidification is occurring at rates similar to 55 mya and 65 mya.
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Re: Seas as acidic as 55 mya

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Alyrium Denryle wrote:
We convert plant matter into burnable fuels (something you have not shown is actually feasible to do economically BTW).
No, I haven't. But CWT *has.*
This is not 100% efficient.
Hense the nuclear reactors.
Ergo, we kill a carbon sink plant. That fuel gets used and converts a small fraction of the energy stored in the chemical bonds into work. We release all the CO2, but get back a small portion of the energy.

This forces us to convert more plants into fuels, thus reducing our carbon sinks. Because plant growth is rate limited, they take up CO2 slower than we will be dumping it into the atmosphere, and you will eventually requite outside input. Opening the system.
[/quote]

Sewage and garbage. Farmed algae. Farms switched from cotton and corn to kudzu.

Once again, you need to learn to think in more than one dimension. *Any* hydrocarbon can be used in the TDP process. The first plant used blood and bits of turkeys for Bogs sake. This means virtually any plant or animal product will work. Pond scum to weeds. Instead of plants that are hard to grow and/or only produce little seeds that we'd squeeze oil out of, plants that we now see as useless, fast-growing *pests* will work just fine. Send former supertankers out into the Gulf to scoop up algae blooms. Lawn clippings. Old houses. Dead bodies, human and otherwise. Genetically engineered fast-growing versions of bamboo. Whatever can scrape carbon out of the air will work just fine for this.
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Re: Seas acidifying as fast as 55 mya

Post by Alyrium Denryle »

An inability to think strategically is unbecoming. More nukes decades earlier would have raised the issue of fissile material decades earlier which would have led to increased research on finding sources of said fuel... decades earlier.
And you base this speculation on what evidence exactly? A lot of technological developments happen as a result of innovation and research in other fields. Moreover, this will help us now.... how exactly? You know, rather than you being able to cast blame on someone.
Jetliners do not fly on electricity. Sunlight does not self-assemble into plastic.
And uranium does not magically precipitate out of sea water.
The worlds population cannot afford to toss out their existing cars and buy all-new expensive electric cars.
Of course not. We need to transition to those over the course of a decade or so. Provide tax incentives to buy them, raise minimum fuel efficiency standards new internal combustion engine cars etc.

Do you think i believe in magic or something?
Once again, you need to learn to think in more than one dimension. *Any* hydrocarbon can be used in the TDP process. The first plant used blood and bits of turkeys for Bogs sake. This means virtually any plant or animal product will work. Pond scum to weeds. Instead of plants that are hard to grow and/or only produce little seeds that we'd squeeze oil out of, plants that we now see as useless, fast-growing *pests* will work just fine. Send former supertankers out into the Gulf to scoop up algae blooms. Lawn clippings. Old houses. Dead bodies, human and otherwise. Genetically engineered fast-growing versions of bamboo. Whatever can scrape carbon out of the air will work just fine for this.
And you failed basic thermodynamics. No matter what route you take with it, how fast the plants grow. You will need to burn more plants with each subsequent cycle of this than you did before.

We have the amount of petroleum we do because nature has been pressure-cooking (essentially) dead plant matter for hundreds of millions of years. We now consume 23.4 trillion grams (weighed for ease of comparison) of it per day just to run our vehicles.

The primary productivity (added biomass per year) of the the amazonian rainforest that still exists is about 12.5 billion grams per YEAR.
Wind and solar power (barring space based) are nice, but are certainly incapable of providing a growing worlds needs.
No. Which is why I never said they should be the sole sources now did I numbnuts?

Because it's defeatist and leads to decay. Grow or die. Efficiency is good for cost-savings and starships, but it's a bad way to run a society.
Where did I say economies needed to stop growing? We need to reduce consumption of natural resources, not stop economic growth. For example, GM crops are awesome. We can use less water and nitrogen rich fertilizer if we adopt them.

That having been said, there is this thing called a carrying capacity in biology. It is the point when resources can no longer sustain further growth. We are quickly reaching ours. Just because a population stops growing (and this can analogized to an economy as well) does not mean that it is going to collapse. It means it asymptotes toward a limit. I fail to see, and you have provided no evidence to substantiate, why a condition like this is necessarily bad.
Your sad little insults might pack a bit more of a sting if you learned how to use a "comma."
I have an odd writing style when I am not being formal (IE. writing protocols for experiments, grants that sort of thing). It does not give you free reign on this forum to ignore the argument laid out in said strange writing style. That is a subset of the ad hominem fallacy known as the style over substance fallacy. Now, that is not the same as insulting someone. Ad hominem attacks are an insult in place of rather than in addition to an argument.
Which makes you a prime target, it would seem.
Not when I am the one who actually responds logically to arguments.
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Re: Seas acidifying as fast as 55 mya

Post by scottlowther »

Alyrium Denryle wrote: And uranium does not magically precipitate out of sea water.
No, it does so scientifically:

http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/ie00027a025
http://nextbigfuture.com/2007/11/two-pr ... r-720.html

The fact that you cannot tell the difference between science and magic...
Of course not. We need to transition to those over the course of a decade or so. Provide tax incentives to buy them, raise minimum fuel efficiency standards new internal combustion engine cars etc.
If they were worth buying, people would buy them on their own. Governments that use punitive measures to force people to buy things they don't want... need to be taken down and replaced.
Do you think i believe in magic or something?
It certainly seems that way.
We have the amount of petroleum we do because nature has been pressure-cooking (essentially) dead plant matter for hundreds of millions of years. We now consume 23.4 trillion grams (weighed for ease of comparison) of it per day just to run our vehicles.

The primary productivity (added biomass per year) of the the amazonian rainforest that still exists is about 12.5 billion grams per YEAR.

Right now we use fossil fuels for pretty much everything, including electrical generation... somethign that shoudl long ago have been taken over by nuclear.
Just because a population stops growing (and this can analogized to an economy as well) does not mean that it is going to collapse. It means it asymptotes toward a limit. I fail to see, and you have provided no evidence to substantiate, why a condition like this is necessarily bad.
Populations that stagnate tend to become inflexible. And thus giant China was taken down by vastly smaller European powers.

Not when I am the one who actually responds logically to arguments.

Let me know when you *start,* magic-boy.
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Re: Seas acidifying as fast as 55 mya

Post by Alyrium Denryle »

No, it does so scientifically:
Indeed it does. But it is not cost effective right now, and thus it cannot be relied upon as a solution to a problem that is compelling this very moment.
The fact that you cannot tell the difference between science and magic...
I am pretty sure the biologist knows better than you the different between science and magic.
If they were worth buying, people would buy them on their own. Governments that use punitive measures to force people to buy things they don't want... need to be taken down and replaced.
How is a tax incentive punishment?

The reason people do not buy them is more complex than them not being of good quality. More than that, why is it necessarily true that what people want coincides with actual solutions to problems? People behave non-rationally in their economic choices, lack the technical expertise to evaluate options in fields beyond their training.

Simply put, unless we use coercion, if we allow the market to take its course as it has been running like now, we are fucked. I would rather coerce some people and have them thank me later than not do so and have coastal cities inundated.

I will also question the fundamental assumption behind your ethical system. The notion of natural rights is incoherent because there is no source upon which to draw rights which is independent of social contract. In other words, they are drawn from nothing more than a legal construct and do not exist as real metaphysical properties of existence.

To claim then than any government (including our own, which explicitly in multiple places allows for coercion to be used in the regulation of interstate trade and in securing the general welfare of the population) which engages in non-criminal coercion for any reason needs to be replaced is not consistent with social contract, as it is inherently an implicit (and then written) agreement between a government and its people. To extend those principles to other governments would violate the agency of the individuals engaged in that contract.

Right now we use fossil fuels for pretty much everything, including electrical generation... somethign that shoudl long ago have been taken over by nuclear.
You will notice that I specified automobile use only.
Populations that stagnate tend to become inflexible. And thus giant China was taken down by vastly smaller European powers.
They stagnated technologically and intellectually. That is not the same as reduced per capita resource consumption. In fact, through the development and use of new technologies, it is possible to have one's cake and eat it to in that respect.

Constant economic growth without adopting cutting edge technology (Systemically. Magic bullet solutions do not exist. Ever.) which reduces resource consumption will lead to one thing. Collapse. We will run out of resources we need and the economy will shrink rather than stop growing. Some resources cannot be substituted. Hell, if it gets bad enough we will reach or *shiver* overshoot our biological carrying capacity and then the shit hits the fan.
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Re: Seas as Acidic as They Were 65 Milllion Years Ago.

Post by Winston Blake »

Alyrium Denryle wrote:As it stands cost-effective uranium reserves are enough to power existing nuclear plants for a few decades.

http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclo ... serves.htm
That's based on existing reactors and, I assume, current costs of LEU. There are reactor technologies that do not require enrichment, and technologies that do not require U-235 at all. 99.3% of all uranium is U-238. This can be converted into plutonium fuel with breeder reactors, a technology that has been around since the 1950s. Fears of nuclear proliferation have prevented widespread use of breeder reactors and reprocessing, however.

There is actually a design that avoids this problem by reprocessing fuel inside the reactor as it is burnt - the Traveling Wave Reactor. Not only can it run on unenriched natural uranium like many other designs, it can burn depleted uranium which is currently stockpiled as waste. Further, leftovers from a spent reactor can be used to initiate several others, so there is no need to conduct uranium enrichment at all - nuclear fuel could be vastly cheaper. There's a lot of 'waste' DU lying around.
Company scientists have also estimated that wide deployment of TWRs could enable projected global stockpiles of depleted uranium to sustain 80% of the world’s population at U.S. per capita electricity usages for over a millennium
Bill Gates and Nathan Myhrvold are investing loads of money and effort into this technology.

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Re: Seas acidifying as fast as 55 mya

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Alyrium Denryle wrote:Constant economic growth without adopting cutting edge technology (Systemically. Magic bullet solutions do not exist. Ever.) which reduces resource consumption will lead to one thing. Collapse. We will run out of resources we need and the economy will shrink rather than stop growing. Some resources cannot be substituted. Hell, if it gets bad enough we will reach or *shiver* overshoot our biological carrying capacity and then the shit hits the fan.
When resources start to become scarce their price goes up. Increased prices creates incentives for people to use them more rationally. Your economic system com easily adapt to natural resource availability.

The real problem is regarding pollution (global warming, etc). Because in this case there is no price in polluting. What the government must do is to put a price over every ton of CO2 emitted. If CO2 emissions continue to go up, them this price needs to be increased.
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Re: Seas acidifying as fast as 55 mya

Post by Alyrium Denryle »

When resources start to become scarce their price goes up. Increased prices creates incentives for people to use them more rationally. Your economic system com easily adapt to natural resource availability.
Not when there are hard limits on how little of those resources can be used. Food for example. Energy use can also only be reduced so far while certain standards of living (and econonic growth) are maintained. Maintaining high life expectancy and low child mortality is energy and resource intensive.

Those resources are finite. Absolutely finite, or in the case of food rate limited (and we have exceeded the rate of production we can sustain long term). No matter how rationally they are used, they will still be drawn down and eventually they will be sufficiently depleted so as to cause major harm to our economies.
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