Iosef Cross wrote:1- I don't know what's the source of these data, but it appears o be from Angus Maddison GDP estimates. His estimates show lower growth rates for Brazil than your national accounts provide.
...
Second to our national accounts, Brazil's per capita income increased from 1,930 reals (2008 prices) in 1930 to 13,350 reals in 1980 (source:
source), per capita income increased 7 fold.
You mean "your" national accounts. But if I were to take the national accounts for the USSR, they could probably also show a greater growth rate for the USSR than Angus Maddison's complete datasets. Why should your national accounts be taken over Maddison's calculations? Why shouldn't I then take the Soviet national accounts and estimate the growth in rubles? Either we use the same dataset, or we use national accounts for both the USSR and Brazil. Maddison's accounts are PPP-adjusted in international dollars. I have yet to see a reason why I should accept your claims at all.
For example, were I to look at it that way, in 1980s prices the USSR's GDP grew from 31 billion (1980 prices) roubles to 619 billion; a 20-fold increase.
The USSR's population was around 150 million in 1930, and ~270 million in 1980. Or from roughly 200 roubles per person to 2300 roubles per person; a 12-fold increase. Which is still larger than Brazil (and adeptly explains all the differences listed below). Like I said, if you're using national currency instead of international dollars to measure growth, be constistent.
Regardless of the point made above, the data in the graph has shown the Latin American average (not Brazil par se), which the USSR well surpassed. You claimed that "all of Latin America" was superior to the USSR. You consciously lied, and now you shift the debate to USSR vs. Brazil, ignoring and forgetting your own claim of "all of Latin America". And even a direct comparison with Brazil yields unfavourable results (see below).
Iosef Cross wrote:And I think that these data overestimate the increase in Soviet income, since most Soviet growth was funneled into the military industrial complex, with no benefits for the population.
How do you know the proportion of the military industrial spending in the overall Soviet spending? Care to share? Moreover, so did Brazil spend on the military. For a smaller economy like Brazil, the spending was correspondingly harder to bear. I asked for hard data. You provided no numbers, just vague claims. Prove them, with numbers, then. The numbers should reflect what percentage of GDP growth yearly fell to the military-industrial complex; per year. I could help you here, but I will not, because you should do your homework on your own. What is even more funny is that Brazil never faced the same level of threat like some powers who contribute a large fraction of GDP to military (US, USSR, Israel, China, etc.). And you have the gall to say military spending was not necessary?

At the same time when the USA had nuclear weapons and nuclear primacy over it's chief rival, the USSR? Really?
Iosef Cross wrote:Latin American population increased more than Soviet population, between 1940 and 1990 Soviet population increased from 196 million to 290 million. Brazil's population increased from 40 million to over 140 million in the same period.
... Compare to total GDP then ...
Now, compare to the same time frames, from 1950 to 1973, USSR's GDP increased from 510 billions in 1950 to 1513 billion in 1973. Nearly tripled. Brazil's GDP increased from 186.56 billions in 1950 to 983.21 billion in 1973, a five fold increase.
I know that. I have already said - it's the problem of Latin America's unchecked population growth which hindered the otherwise possible higher economic growth. Why exactly should I compare the total GDP, when the comparison was centered around GDP per capita and it's growth rates? The USSR was more industrialized than Brazil by the year 1950, ergo started from a higher base and had a growth moderation. It's still considerable that it had a triple increase in that timeframe. You are making my point for me. Brazil still had a high illiteracy rate in the 1990s - which means Brazil's growth potential was not tapped out even in what concerned literacy!
To put it in a more stark comparison, Brazil's illiteracy rate as of 1990 equalled to that of the USSR in the year 1939. In 1959, the USSR's literacy rate was 98,5%, whereas Brazil's was only 60%. 40% of Brazil's population was illiterate - a vast potential for workforce improvement and skill raising.
It's surprising that the USSR still continued as fast as it did after 1960. Brazil's performance as an industrializing nation in the same period, compared to the USSR which was in the last phase of industrialization in the 1950-1990 period... is dissappointing. Whereas the USSR achieved total population literacy in 30 years, Brazil failed to achieve it in even in 70 years and then some (counting from the year 1930). Brazil's growth did not even translate into the literacy of it's people. How sad.
Iosef Cross wrote:Yeah, if you think longer awaiting lines to buy bread are a sign of progress.
Ques due to deficits were exceptionally widespread during the late 1980s, right. Hence why I put 1985 as the benchmark year. Gorbachov's currency reforms, especially in 1987, caused a disruptive shock and a rise in deficits over the nation. Prior to that, supply levels were quite good. So I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Yes, the USSR entered a crisis by the mid-1980s. Yes, that crisis had the economy collapse. Anything new? I said - the living standards rose during 1970-1985. To deny it would be stupid - there were millions of square meters of housing build, millions of cars, millions of trucks and buses. All these products increased the life level of the population. Perhaps not as fast and not as swiftly as during 1950-1970, but like I said, the USSR entered a moderation when it industrialized; aside from the obvious crisis processes in the economy in the late 1980s.
Iosef Cross wrote:Most of the world? You mean, Africa, India and China. Far worse than any consolidated capitalistic nation. Perhaps, comparable to Latin America. If you don't value political freedoms at all
Political freedoms? You mean in Brazil, where
GM, Ford and Volkswagen provided blacklists of workers for murder to the Brazilian dictatorship? Heh. I don't mean "Africa, India or China". I mean most of the world -
HDR 1990. The USSR ranked 26th in the 1990s Human Development Report. All non-First World "consolidated capitalistic nations" ranked below it. Either deal with it, or suck it up.
Brazil ranked 50th.
This here demonstrates who the losers were:


This is purely by GDP/capita though. By HDI, not only these nations fell behind, but also many other industrializing nations, since their literacy/education/healthcare sucked balls; and it is a major HDI component. The most remarkable fact is that some Latin American nations had a higher average GDP/capita but fell behind the USSR, and also that the "losers" in the first place were tighly packed in the 1930s.
In terms of HDI, the 1990 used the 1987 data. Some background on the transition and why modern Russian indicators, except literacy, do not reflect the Soviet life level:
Development and Transition: Understanding Russia’s demographic challenge (Twenty Years of Transition and Human Development, UNDP) wrote:Whereas the USSR in 1987 occupied 26th place (out of 130 countries) with an HDI of 0.920, by 1995 Russia had dropped to 72nd place among 174 countries, with an HDI of 0.769.
Two of the HDI’s components were responsible for this decrease: life expectancy (which decreased from 70 to 65.5 years) and per-capita GDP in purchasing-power-parity terms (which dropped from US$ 6,000 to US$ 4,531). By contrast, the HDI’s education component (the adult literacy rate) remained largely unchanged. (Since the quality of the education system inherited from the Soviet period remains fairly high, the HDI’s education component is more difficult to influence than the other two HDI components.)
Iosef Cross wrote:Argentina was more developed than the USSR, or at least comparable. Today their life expectancy is 8 years longer than the Russia's.
... Brazil was an industrialized country by 1980, in the sense that most of the population lived in cities and industry was several times larger than agriculture.
Today the life expectancy of Russia has plunged
far below the late-Soviet one, so I am not sure if we're on the same line here. I also thought that in the 1980s, Brazil was still industrializing, or "developing" as the UNDP puts it, but sure, why not.
Iosef Cross wrote:Completely untrue. The USSR's economy was only driven by the military industrial complex. Output served the needs of the military, not the population. In Brazil we had a interventionist state, with hindered progress, but at least production was adjusted to the needs of the consumers.
Compare a typical market in Brazil by 1980, with thousands of different products, with a market in the USSR, with bread and potatoes, and 3 kilometers of awaiting lines
Unlike you, I lived in the USSR and my relatives have seen - not first hand, but close enough! - the favellas of Brazil. So you can go fuck yourself with strawman comparisons. I ask you - how did the medical insurance system in Brazil work, what was the accesibility of medical coverage? Brazil had twice the Soviet infant mortality in the year 1990 - is that normal? And it still is, despite all the turmoil the Russian healthcare system had to go through. And how many square meters of housing did Brazil have in the 1980s? How many did it build? The "three kilometers" of lines is just a strawman - I used to stay in these lines as a kid. That was post-1987 reform, i.e. the lines were a novelty, especially such long ones. And yet, they weren't anywhere close three kilometers. Still, the deterioration of the supply situation post-1985, and especially post-1987 is a well-known fact; I'm not sure what you're aiming at. I said that the living standard grew. The USSR's construction industry, for example, dwarfed it's military industrial complex - the USSR had a massive construction of powerplants, housing, hospitals, etc. etc. So you can shove your strawman where it belongs.
Iosef Cross wrote:The problem in Brazil is the regional inequalities. By 1980 the richest states had decent living conditions (I mean decent, not soviet) while the poorest states had living conditions not much better than Africa. ... Brazil's life expectancy increased from 44 years in 1950 to 65 in 1990. That's progress
While in the USSR GINI was low and the disparity between life standards of the citizens were much less. Thanks, I'd choose average welfare for all than Africa-like conditions for the poor. You are making my point for me. Brazil GINI, 1990: 60.68; 1981: 57.57. USSR GINI, 1990: 0,28; 1980: 0,29. So Brazil not only had a lower absolute GDP per capita, worse healthcare and other indicators, which form the HDI, but it also had a very high inequality, unlike the USSR.
And yet, depspite all the growth, Brazil's life expectancy it was still lower than that of the USSR during the same year - despite the stagnation and decline of the Soviet life expectancy in the 1970s. Meanwhile, the USSR's life expectancy increased from about the same number (post-war life expectancy was horrid) to 70 years in a far smaller term. So you're making my point for me - the USSR progressed faster, achieved better results and still keeps them (Russia's healthcare indicators are superior to Brazil).
In fact, the USSR's average life expectancy in the 1930s was below 40 years, whereas in Brazil in the 1930s it was 42.7 years. So in the period 1930-1990, the USSR rapidly improved it's average life expectancy (it more than doubled), whereas Brazil struggled to improve it to the Soviet level despite stagnation. All this contributes to my initial point - the USSR's progress in per capita welfare indicators was far more rapid than Brazil's, which to a large degree struggled to turn itself from a Third World shithole which it was, into a industrialized welfare nation. In the USSR, life expectancy rose from ~35 years to ~70, a double increase. In Brazil, it rose from ~40 years to ~65 for the same period. The USSR had an average gain of 35 years; Brazil for the entire period, only 25 years, an increase of only 38%.
Iosef Cross wrote:If you want to compare the crime situation, well, true the USSR didn't have much "illegal" crime. But the entire State was essentially a criminal dictatorship.
So was Brazil, see above. I don't understand where you're coming from. The state was a dictatorship. So? So was Brazil, during quite a large share of the time of your progress. The USSR in the 1970s-1980s was far better-suited for the life of the common worker than modern Russia or Brazil, for that matter. "Illegal crime" is murder and robbery. The USSR had low levels of either. That means life was safe. Unlike you, I grew up in the late-1980s, and I still remember how fucking safe it was compared to now. If you have solid grounds why the safety of the common citizen should be discarded from comparison, I am all ears.
In fact, it's even worse - Brazil was BOTH a dictatorship until 1985, as you said, AND had a very high crime level. Ergo, no redeeming qualities at all.
Iosef Cross wrote:Why? Well, the average Brazilian wage is 15,000 reals per year, more or less. You can rent a small decent place for 2,500 reals per year, roughly equivalent to the concrete tenements of the USSR. Basic medical coverage is free. But if you want first world quality of medical coverage, you need to pay. Prices are lower than in US and Europe.
I did not ask for the rental prices. I asked - how many square meters did Brazil build, per citizen, in the period 1930-1990. How many square meters per citizen did Brazil have in the 1980s? Similar, when I asked about medicine, I asked about the healthcare indicators, like the percentage of population with access to medical services, and such.
Iosef Cross wrote:So even in the mid of a depression, Brazil had a better car park than the USSR at its peak. Also, you should know that cars made in the USSR were pure shit. As all industrial equipment.
I never said the USSR had a better car park than Brazil; I said the exact opposite in fact, that the USSR's passenger car park was a neglected part of the economy. Moreover, I already provided the per-capita car spread rate, not the bulk aggregate - so your comment that I should take into account the population size is just funny - I already did. As for "cars made in the USSR", they were your average 1960-1970s cars (in 1980s, progress stalled). Many of these models continue to serve until this day. That aside, it's strange to expect some grand successes in a neglected sector like personal car construction.
"All industrial equipment" - hope you didn't really mean it, because such a generalization is bullshit. Maybe Brazil had mastered such complex engineering as space travelling equipment, has lifted a number of space stations and spacefaring modules in space? Oh, sorry - I forgot, the BSA's first rocket rose in what, 2004?
In short, you're so far making all my points for me - parts of Brazil are as shitty as Africa, and while the USSR's average life standard was below the life standard of Brazil's capitalists, it was superior to the population which was confined to Africa-like conditions - superior standard for all is better than superior standard for some; Brazil has a big car park, but it failed to match the USSR in some aspects of very complex engineering (and it's automobile industry is basically a huge assembly plant for foreign companies); Brazil is far behind the USSR in HDI, and so are all Latin American and other states; only the First World, Japan and other European nations (some Second World ones) beat it.
Iosef Cross wrote:How well the Soviet citizen ate
FAO data:
Code: Select all
Product\Year 1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Meat 39.6 43.7 48.6 60.5 60.1 65.2 72.2
Milk 157.5 147.8 194.4 194.7 171.4 173.0 184.0
Eggs 7.0 6.7 8.8 11.8 13.5 14.6 14.8
Fats 7.6 8.4 10.5 11.3 14.0 15.8 15.0
Meat annual consumption, 1990, FAO
USA 112.6
England 72.5
Swiss 59.0
Finland 62.3
Portugal 62.8
France 98.9
Germany 95.5
USSR 72.2
So your point was? If you were going to chastise the USSR for low consumption of meat, go chastise the First World nations of Finland, Portugal, Switzerland and Britain. They all had meat consumption on the same order as the USSR in the 1980s. I'm not sure how is the USA's horrible meat overeating and obesity a proof of anything. The British did not live a worse life than the citizens of the USA despite eating less meat. Moreover, the consumption dynamic shows continous improvement in the quality of rations, which directly contradicts your thesis that the life standard of teh USSR stood flat in 1970-1985.
Of course, the 1988 screed about the consumption in the 1920s being higher than in the 1980s is pure, purest bullshit.

The consumption level of 3000+ calories has been reached in by the 1970s; afterwards, the calorie consumption improved in the quality section of the consumption - more meats and milk and eggs, less vegetable calories.
So not only is your piece pure counterfactual bullshit, but you completely fail to analyze actual data, resorting to poorly framed propaganda screeds instead. Such behavior is not tolerated in History; shape up

Next time, try at least a little formatting with your screeds.
To further prove my point, I can note that Finland's meat consumption for the 1961-1990 period almost exactly mirrors the Soviet one. The Finns consume more fish, on the average, and less meats, but all in all, the Soviet and Finnish meat diet was roughly equal during the period 1960-1990. Finland is a developed First World nation. I'm also sure that USSR's diet more or less corresponds with the British one. Some nations (e.g. Japan) achieved a higher life level whilst having a lower calorie diet, actually (2800+, instead of 3000+ like the USSR). Needless to say, Brazil's meat consumption has been worse than either First World or the USSR:
FAOSTAT.
Iosef wrote:Also, there are the differences in the political field. In the USSR people didn't have the basics of political freedom, neither the freedom of trade information. In Brazil, after 1985, with the end of the dictatorship, we have a fully functioning democracy and full political freedoms. Things that the USSR never had, and Russia still doesn't have. And that is very important as well. Also, during the dictatorship, the constrains on information were mild compared to the USSR, where one couldn't access the global book market.
In Russia, after 1991, we also have "democracy" and "political freedom". However, we have a massively reduced life level and a collapsed economy as a bonus pack thanks to the botched transition. I'm not sure what your point was? I'm sorry, but how could a malnourished Brazilian peasant living in what you described as conditions equal to sub-Saharan Africa, buy books on the world market? There was no internet, and the guy was malnourished which means he didn't have enough to fucking eat - so he couldn't order books (not to mention that most languages other than his native one are automatically excluded, just like in Russia or any nation for that matter). I'm not sure if you fully realize the impact of economic and language constraints on people. Either that, or you're an idiot. A very small fraction of Brazil's population had access to information.
In fact, Brazil still has a below-90% literacy rate, last time I checked (maybe in the very recent years it changed). Brazil had a literacy rate of 81% in 1990. The USSR - over 99%. This meant that 20% of Brazil's population had no access to information
AT ALL. They were illiterate.
Iosef wrote:And some people made the claim that Brazil's economic growth didn't benefit the population while USSR's growth did. Well, in fact the Brazilian economy was driven to supply consumer needs, the increase in GDP was fully translated into an increase in output of consumer goods. The USSR's didn't have the same "consuming culture" (i.e.: they really didn't increase output to increase output of consumer goods) but a militaristic economic system, with focusing on competing with the US in military technology, while the population had the worst living standards of any major power in the world.
Quite frankly, Brazil's GINI coefficient was worse than that of the USSR, IIRC (so the decile income disparity coefficient meant that a large swath of GDP growth benefited the wealthy, about whom I couldn't care less), and quite frankly as well, USSR's HDI in 1990 ranked 26th and was much higher than Brazil's. Ergo, both of your claims are false when confronted with the facts.
Iosef wrote:The USSR's economy sucked so much that they weren't even able to produce food for themselves, having the best agricultural land in the world. So they were forced to export oil in exchange for grain. And they couldn't export manufactured goods because they were shit, only commodities, like oil.
There's so many falsehoods in this sentence I can't even choose where to begin. One: the USSR produced enough food for itself. Before 1962, it was a net grain exporter. Two: USSR had quite arguably the worst agricultural conditions compared to other nations, and certainly not best. Three: the share of oil in the Soviet industry was less than that in the Russian industry. Four: grains that were bought abroad were imported as feed grains for cattle; this allowed the USSR to increase it's livestock and lift meat consumption levels, thus raising the quality of life of it's citizens. I'm not sure why is that a bad thing? Many nations are net food importers. Chinese economic growth resulted in net food imports, as did Japan's, IIRC, and Great Britains.
On the other hand, such stellar net food exporter as Bangladesh had
a famine in 1974.
I adivse you to read
here, Iosef, to get a grasp on how Russia had the absolute WORST lands in Europe (not to mention compared to the USA), with it's climate making almost the entirety of the USSR a zone of risky crops, automatically lowering yields and excluding a vast variety of cultures which can be grown in a better climate.
You failed econ geography 101 if you claim Russia has the best lands with a straight fucking face.

Such claims are, once again, not showing your expertise, but on the other hand, show you claiming a falsehood.
Iosef wrote:The prof that the USSR's economy didn't care about the population was the collapse in output with their fall: production decreased as much as 50%, because there wasn't DEMAND for it. Why there wasn't demand? 2 reasons: because demand was previously provided by the military industrial complex, not the consuming population, and because their output was shit, so with access to the global market, demand for these "goods" became zero.
I'm not sure what you're trying to prove here. Demand is meaningless in a situation of non-equilibrium economics, which the USSR entered after the collapse. The currency experienced rampant hyperinflation, which often made enterprises bankrupt overnight. That is not relevant in any way to the military industrial complex, which remains until this day one of the most resilient parts of the Russian economy. In fact, non-military sectors (e.g. light industry) collapsed far more severely than the heavy industry, of which military industrial complex is a subset. Russian economy is today more skewed towards heavy industry than during Soviet days, which is itself remarkable. Ridiculously enough, the USSR had a more diverse economy than Russia. Russia has a greater share of oils in it's industry, and a greater share of oil and weapons as it's exports.
So you have proven my point for me again - the USSR had a more diverse economy; it cared about it's populace because it imported grains (as opposed to North Korea, Bangladesh and other nations where the population experienced either famine or severe malnutrition at the same time as it did not import foods, or when it exported foods), and it imported grains not for bread-making, but to increase the consumption of meats and other animal fats in the Soviet 3000+ calorie diet, which was already among the highest in the world.
Thanks Iosef
Iosef wrote:Not that the majority of the population is starving to death...
In 1990, USSR/Russia had a malnourishment rate of 0. In 1990, Brazil had a malnourishment rate of 10%. FAO. So no, certainly not the majority, certainly not "to the death". But the Brazilian consumption of foods has been likewise far more constrained that the Soviet one. Of course, neither nation in the 1950-1980 period experienced anything even close to a famine; but whereas the USSR vaniquished malnourishment, Brazil had a chronic malnourishment rate of 10% which persisted even in the 1990s. Brazil still had a chronic malnourishment rate during the 2000s, and still has one now. Russia did not, and does not have one now. So before you speak, Iosef, think carefully over your words.