GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:We have two different stories emerging. One is a hot mess, and the other is the story we've been covering for weeks now. We'll start with the boring story: So, end of the night, and Sanders exceeded expectations by winning by substantial margins in Minnesota, Colorado, (both caucuses in states filled with white people) and Oklahoma (likewise filled with white people.)
Yeah, keep playing up this false narrative. We know the reason- a false attempt to discredit the Sanders campaign by portraying it as racist. The Clinton crowd has found a smear they think will work, and by God they're going to stick to it.
Its certainly interesting to compare to Clinton's racist campaigning against Obama eight years ago.
Fortunately, its also demonstrably false:
https://berniesanders.com/press-release ... -colorado/
DENVER, Colo. – Continuing a trend started in Nevada where he won the Latino vote by eight points according to entrance polls, Sen. Bernie Sanders convincingly carried 10 of the top 15 Latino counties in Colorado, many by wide margins.
“You can only win the state of Colorado by more than 18 points if you get the support of the state’s Latino community in a big way,” said Arturo Carmona, Sanders’ deputy political director. “Last night’s victory is the result of organizers working on the ground to engage the community and deliver Sen. Sanders’ message of fixing a rigged economy.”
Sanders carried Colorado with sizable margins of victory in the most dense Latino regions. Adams, Weld and Denver counties are home to 43 percent of the Latino Democrats in the state. He won Adams County by 23 percent, Weld County by 22 percent and Denver County by 10 percent.
“Latinos will play a pivotal role in Sen. Sanders’ path to victory in important states like Arizona, Illinois, New York, California and Florida and we’re confident he can continue to win in battleground states with their help,” Carmona said.
Also, Colorado, according to Wikipedia at least, was recently 20.7% Hispanic and Latino, although granted that includes white Hispanics. Including white Hispanics, the state was just barely over eighty percent white.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado#Demographics
Wo I'll give you predominantly white, with the reminder that the Demographics of a Democratic Primary will likely be less white-dominated than the general populace.
He generally performed to expectations in Massachusetts (a toss-up state with slight Clinton leanings,) and lost horribly in the South (the prediction of thirty point losses was being grossly generous to Sanders.)
And I'm sure Bill Clinton campaigning at polling places had no effect on the very close results in Massachusetts.
Sanders knows he's just being a spoiler at this point, since he came out really early, gave his speech about how he plans to stick it out to the bitter, bitter, end, and then went to bed, denying the press the satisfaction of watching him react to getting repeatedly kicked in the balls.
That's an awfully cynical way to look at it.
Aside from the fact that dismissing him as "just a spoiler" is to ignore the numerous valid reasons he might have for sticking out the campaign in favour of implying that he should just quit the race to make way for the Chosen One, Hillary Clinton, to assume her "rightful" place.
He's proven that he's mainly the candidate of the 8-10% of the Democratic Party who would be Greens if they thought the Green Party could win elections.
You are liar, because I refuse to believe that you are this delusional.
Portraying Sanders' level of support as in the 10% range is a flat-out lie, with no basis in actual numbers.
And this is why he is getting zero credibility outside of Sanders supporters.
No one supports him other than his supporters? Isn't this true of most politicians?
If you mean that no one else thinks he can win, well, I doubt the Clinton campaign would have attacked him so hard if they didn't take him seriously.
Remember that only a small fraction of voters ever participate in primaries. He keeps saying he's trying to start a revolution, and that his success hinges on turnout ... unfortunately, the ones who are really turning out for this primary cycle are the Republicans. It's the Republicans who are angry and hungry for change in the White House. For the Democrats, this is pretty much a normal primary cycle ... a heavily favored Establishment candidate who can expect to face a rabid lunatic in November ... nothing really worth getting excited over. He's failed to get his would-be Greens to come out in very large numbers.
Yeah, keep rehashing this "Sanders supporters=Greens" line to discredit us.
Also, the high turnout is, in my opinion, a reason to pick Sanders. He offers something new. Exciting. He has enthusiastic supporters and giant rallies. And it seems to me that the Democratic turnout has been lower on days when a Clinton victory was a foregone conclusion (I seem to recall reports of Iowa and New Hampshire being high, South Carolina and Super Tuesday being lower). Which tells me people aren't excited by "Clinton the Inevitable." And why should they be?
Worse, it's starting to look like traditional Democratic blocs are turning against him. The Democrats need minority votes to be competitive in the general election, and very few of them are voting for Sanders.
Do Latinos count as a traditional Democratic block? Because if anything, they're moving toward him.
Worse, Sanders' consistent meh-ness is only going to make things worse for him further down the road. Turnouts start to drop as the air of inevitability settles over one candidate and would-be voters suffer from primary overload. There are signs that took place in South Carolina on the Democrats side, and it wouldn't surprise me if it holds true in the other Southern states as well (places in the South are reporting record turnouts, but this is for both parties combined, and the Trump campaign is succeeding at getting more people to come out to vote ... for or against him.)
I wonder if some of it is Democrats/Independents switching to vote in the Republican Primary to stop Trump from being nominee.
Worse, looking at the seventeen states that are left to vote in March, only a handful of them really strike me as Sanders territory. The rest have much more traditional Democratic voter makeups, and we already know how mainstream Democrats are voting. So, while his supporters are all passionate, starry-eyed idealists, overflowing with optimism; the only one who's going to feel the Bern in the end is the Bern.
15 states have voted. Bernie has won 5. 35 are left. Most of the states in more Sanders-friendly areas have not voted.
Clinton is the most likely winner, but acting like its already over is to dismiss the majority of the Democratic electorate as irrelevant.
It's a good thing, then, that it looks like Hillary Clinton can afford to have a spoiler; because Super Tuesday was a hot mess for the Republicans. Rubio and Cruz both notched up wins, Trump didn't score runaway victories, and hell ... even Kaisch pulled out a strong second-place finish somewhere. Instead of one candidate to take on Trump, it looks like all of them are going to stay and try to pick off states here and there (Republican contests shift to winner-take-all further down the line) ... anything to deny Trump a majority of delegates at the convention. So the prospect of an independent Trump run against a GOP holding its nose and nominating Cruz remains surprisingly high.
I wouldn't take anything for granted about the general election.