The 2016 US Election (Part I)

[The Romulan Republic]

Oklahoma called for Bernie on CNN!

Massachusetts has Clinton in the lead, but not called yet.

Texas called for Ted Cruz.

Edit: Texas numbers aren't looking good for Bernie. Not South Carolina bad, but not really close either. Still, maybe it'll narrow a bit.

[Thanas]

Clinton gave a very strong speech.

This country belongs to all of us, not just those at the top. Not just the people who look one way, worship one way or even think one way. ... America is strong when we’re all strong.

We’ve got work to do. But that work is not to make America great again. America never stopped being great. We have to make America whole. We have to fill in what’s been hollowed out.

Meanwhile, losing Massachusetts gotta sting for Sanders as he is the clear loser of Super Tuesday.

[The Romulan Republic]

Have they called Massachusetts yet? Last I checked, it was close and undecided, albeit with a slight Clinton lead.

[Thanas]

Not called yet but she has got a 4.8% lead.

[The Romulan Republic]

With just under half in from what I just saw on CNN.

It looks like she'll probably narrowly win, but exit polls reportedly favoured Sanders and even if she wins, it'll be close.

[Purple]

How's Trump doing so far?

[FaxModem1]

Trump has won six states compared to Cruz's Texas and Oklahoma. Rubio looks to have nothing.

[Purple]

So at this point he is to be considered the front runner for the position?

[The Romulan Republic]

Trump is definitely the Republican front runner, unfortunately.

With Ted "Shutdown" Cruz as the runner up.

[The Romulan Republic]

Still doesn't seem to be called on CNN, but from what I'm seeing, it looks like Clinton will pull off a narrow win in Massachusetts.

Counting has just started in Minnesota, meanwhile, but Sanders is way ahead.

Haven't seen anything for Colorado yet, another promising state for Sanders.

Cruz has taken Texas and Oklahoma.

[Raw Shark]

On the ground in Colorado, I can report that my precinct, at least, is feeling the Bern. There wasn't a single young or black face in the Clinton corner that I saw, and we took it. Off to the after party! (It's at the Bluebird on Colfax and Adams, if you're in Denver and want to go)

[Prannon]

For what it's worth, Sanders taking away OK, VT, MN, and CO tonight will make it not quite so bad a blowout. TX was the state that really mattered, though, and he's not on track to do well here unfortunately. Not even in Travis County, where I voted. I'm a bit surprised!

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, four states out of eleven is not great, but not a knockout blow.

He needed to get as close as possible in Texas, so his performance their isn't great, but I expect he'll walk away with some delegates at least.

Wonder what the Democrats Abroad results will be, as that's my vote.

[Prannon]

Well, four states out of eleven is not great, but not a knockout blow.

He needed to get as close as possible in Texas, so his performance their isn't great, but I expect he'll walk away with some delegates at least.

Wonder what the Democrats Abroad results will be, as that's my vote.

For your benefit, please click the following linklinklink!

[The Romulan Republic]

Of course, Democrats Abroad votes over eight days, so final tally for their delegates will be a while coming.

[The Romulan Republic]

Barely started counting in Minnesota from what I've seen on CNN, and only about a quarter of the votes in Colorado, but about 20 point leads for Bernie in both. That's nice.

Massachusetts was almost done though, and Clinton was holding her narrow lead.

An Elizabeth Warren endorsement could have turned that around. Why she's not endorsed someone before Massachusetts, when it would have mattered the most, I don't know.

[Omega18]

Well, four states out of eleven is not great, but not a knockout blow.

The problem is the massive margins Hillary won by in the Southern states means she is going to come away with a extremely massive delegate lead which does eliminate any realistic possibility (baring something like Hillary actually getting indicted) of Sanders managing to come into the convention with a delegate lead. (Again with the rules on proportional delegates who wins a state is not remotely as decisive as margins of victory actually are.) The fact Hillary is winning about 83 percent of the African-American vote is also very bad news for Sanders for other upcoming other Southern states where its extremely hard to see how he could plausibly significantly turn things around. (With the high percentage of voters who are 65+ being a related key problem for Sanders in Florida.)

If your point is that Sanders isn't going to actually be forced out of the race anytime soon that's true, but that's different than him really becoming a message candidate rather than one with realistic prospects of winning the nomination.

[SCRawl]

Barely started counting in Minnesota from what I've seen on CNN, and only about a quarter of the votes in Colorado, but about 20 point leads for Bernie in both. That's nice.

Massachusetts was almost done though, and Clinton was holding her narrow lead.

An Elizabeth Warren endorsement could have turned that around. Why she's not endorsed someone before Massachusetts, when it would have mattered the most, I don't know.

If she were to have endorsed a candidate and picked wrong, she would have pissed off the president for the next four to eight years.

[The Romulan Republic]

Colorado called for the Bern.

As its my home state, I'm quite pleased.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, four states out of eleven is not great, but not a knockout blow.

The problem is the massive margins Hillary won by in the Southern states means she is going to come away with a extremely massive delegate lead which does eliminate any realistic possibility (baring something like Hillary actually getting indicted) of Sanders managing to come into the convention with a delegate lead. (Again with the rules on proportional delegates who wins a state is not remotely as decisive as margins of victory actually are.) The fact Hillary is winning about 83 percent of the African-American vote is also very bad news for Sanders for other upcoming other Southern states where its extremely hard to see how he could plausibly significantly turn things around. (With the high percentage of voters who are 65+ being a related key problem for Sanders in Florida.)

If your point is that Sanders isn't going to actually be forced out of the race anytime soon that's true, but that's different than him really becoming a message candidate rather than one with realistic prospects of winning the nomination.

Leaving aside the indictment possibility or anything else that might force Clinton out of the race (God forbid, because that really wouldn't be a good thing), my attitude is that its not over until its over, though I acknowledge that Clinton has the best chance, as she pretty much always has.

In any case, Sanders has good reason to stay in- the more votes he gets, the more influence his message has. And as he basically says, every state should get to vote.

I do worry a bit about dividing the party in the face of Trump or Cruz, though. But I think he's doing well enough tonight, with more promising states coming up, to justify staying in a while longer.

Edit: Keep in mind, with its heavy load of southern states, coming right after South Carolina, Super Tuesday was kind of stacked against Bernie Sanders.

[The Romulan Republic]

Minnesota for the Bern!

[The Romulan Republic]

And Massachusetts for Clinton, apparently. Pity. And I think a lot of progressives will look less kindly on Elizabeth Warren in the future, because it was close enough that if she had endorsed and campaigned for Bernie, rather than sitting it out, it might have made the difference.

Oh well. I'll try not to hold a grudge and accept that she might have had legitimate reasons for her choice.

[The Romulan Republic]

You know, there's something messed up about an election where 15 out of 50 states have voted, Sanders has won five and effectively tied a sixth, and people are insisting Clinton's already won.

Yeah, I know some states are worth more than others, and Texas is a blow, but the biggest (California) doesn't come until the end, and I don't think Clinton's going to do much better anywhere else than she did in the southern states (minus Oklahoma if that counts as a southern state) tonight.

Sure, she has the advantage, but it isn't over yet.

[Thanas]

She won 80% of the black vote. Without the black vote the democrats cannot win. Thus, Clinton is continuing to make the case that she is the more electable candidate - and Sanders continues to look like the Vermont liberal. Basically, Sanders wins in states where he invests a lot of resources and people get to know him. Clinton wins everywhere else.

Clinton added 436 delegates to her running total (putting her at 527 delegates compared to Bernie Sanders’ 325) and Trump gained an extra 186 delegates (giving him a total of 268 so far compared to Cruz’s 142)

I do not see him closing that gap anytime soon.

[The Romulan Republic]

She won 80% of the black vote. Without the black vote the democrats cannot win. Thus, Clinton is continuing to make the case that she is the more electable candidate -

This supposes that large numbers of black voters are actively hostile to Sanders to the point that they would not vote for him in the general election, even if the alternative is some nut like Trump (friend of the Klan) or Cruz, as opposed to simply preferring Clinton.

and Sanders continues to look like the Vermont liberal. Basically, Sanders wins in states where he invests a lot of resources and people get to know him. Clinton wins everywhere else.

The Vermont liberal who also won three states in very different parts of the country tonight.

The way I see it, Clinton dominates the South, and Sanders is reasonably competitive pretty much everywhere else.

The problem, more or less, is that he needs to go from "reasonably competitive" to "clear front runner" pretty much everywhere else to offset that big Clinton lead in the south.

Ah, the south. Ruining America since 1776.

do not see him closing that gap anytime soon.

Perhaps. At the same time, a difference of 200 or so delegates this early on doesn't seem insurmountable (though admittedly that is leaving out super delegates, who will make it a lot harder for Sanders if they stay overwhelmingly behind Clinton).

Edit: Still, now is not the time to worry about super delegates. As I understand it, they can switch sides right up to the end. And perhaps the strongest possible argument for winning over Clinton's super delegates would be Bernie winning the vote state by state, the reasoning being that overriding the will of the voters would risk splitting the party and torpedoing their chances in the general election.