StarDestroyer.Net BBS

With 86% reporting Santorum is up by just over a thousand votes but there are free Romney friendly counties outstanding. So yes lets call this another close win for Santorum. And if he does win all three it creates a whole new media cycle, even more so the "crush" win in Minnesota Caucus which while not counting still resulted in a 30 point win. Romney needs 1220 delegates to win clean. And if he wins every single contest from here to the June with 50% of the vote he will have 1117.

Hooray for proportional representation. If he spends the rest of this and next month winning states by less than 50% he will have to get 90% of the votes from the April/May/June Primaries. If we still see states being won by 30%-40% you'll start seeing Nate Silver predicting that it's going to go to a floor fight.

Jesus, the GOP is just all over the place isn't it?

Mr Bean wrote:With 86% reporting Santorum is up by just over a thousand votes but there are free Romney friendly counties outstanding. So yes lets call this another close win for Santorum. And if he does win all three it creates a whole new media cycle, even more so the "crush" win in Minnesota Caucus which while not counting still resulted in a 30 point win. Romney needs 1220 delegates to win clean. And if he wins every single contest from here to the June with 50% of the vote he will have 1117.

Hooray for proportional representation. If he spends the rest of this and next month winning states by less than 50% he will have to get 90% of the votes from the April/May/June Primaries. If we still see states being won by 30%-40% you'll start seeing Nate Silver predicting that it's going to go to a floor fight.

At this point a smoke filled room choosing Christie or J.E.B. Bush at the convention as a compromise candidate is actually possible, as it's quite likely that none of the candidates will have sufficient delegates to win outright, along with things like Ron Paul delegates storming the floor with signs saying "GOLD STANDARD" like it was 1896. I'm listening to Al Stewart's Warren Harding and reflecting that the Republican Party has at least taken itself back to the Gilded Age in addition to the country.

Does Christie have any sort of shady baggage from New Jersey? It would certainly explain why he explicitly ruled out running this time.

I think the party bosses would realize that Jeb Bush might be a little too much. Though it might save some of their Senate and House races by throwing him as the sacrificial lamb. Maybe they could run Kay Bailey Hutchinson from Texas or Mitch Daniels (though Daniel's little rounding error with the Iraq War isn't going to be very inspiring)?

Pelranius wrote:Does Christie have any sort of shady baggage from New Jersey? It would certainly explain why he explicitly ruled out running this time.

Oh, if wishing made it so... but no, I don't think so. For a Republican in a blue state, he's fairly popular. Last poll I can find puts his NJ approval rating in the mid-fifties.

When was the last time there was a smoke-filled-room compromise candidate from a major party? Even if there is one this year, which I doubt, I can't see it being Christie. I thought the point of a smoke-filled room was to come up with a candidate that's no one's favorite, but that no one seriously objects to, either. I don't think people who voted for Gingrich or Santorum would accept Christie, although he'd be dangerous as hell in a general election.

Anyway, I think it's far too early to predict a floor fight or a smoke-filled-room compromise. This primary season has nothing on 2008's. Just because we don't know who will win the nomination doesn't mean it won't be clear in a couple of months.

Posting it here because imho it doesn't deserve a trhead:

Only for those with really poor taste in humor: Spoiler

Pelranius wrote:82% reporting in, Santorum now has 38% to Mitten's 37%. CNN is calling it for the chocolate froth.

How incompetent is Mitten's organization?! He won Colorado in 2008 with 60%!

The answer to this is simple: "Florida." As in Santorum abandoned Florida to blanket Colorado and these other small-fry in advertising, while Romney and Gingrich beat each other bloody through millions and millions of dollars in Florida TV ads. Romney didn't run much in the way of advertising in Colorado, didn't do nearly as much campaigning as Santorum, and the results show it.

If the other candidates keep having to burn all their resources to win a small state here and there, Romney is still going to outlast them. It's precarious for Santorum and Newt--I think they're both one especially or unexpectedly bad showing from collapse. Nobody's going to keep spending pouring money into a campaign with no shot, and both those campaigns need constant infusions of money to stay alive. Mittens would have to do something outlandish like lose California to seriously jeopardize his nomination.

Paul will be in it until the convention, but barring a bizarre three-plane midair collision involving the other candiates, he has no chance. I don't think he's really in it to be president at this point anyway. He's just taking the one-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pitch his philosophy to a (comparatively) mainstream national audience.

Fun as a floor fight would be, I think this primary campaign is gonig to be over sooner than most people expect. I don't think the anti-Mittens coalition can keep him from the nomination.

As long as it makes for good television, this primary season will go all the fuck the way to Tampa. And give me a fuckton of 4am nights.

Dalton wrote:As long as it makes for good television, this primary season will go all the fuck the way to Tampa. And give me a fuckton of 4am nights.

I hope you aren't salaried.

Pelranius wrote:Does Christie have any sort of shady baggage from New Jersey? It would certainly explain why he explicitly ruled out running this time.

He may have just decided he doesn't want to be president, or doesn't want to be president right now. It's hardly uncommon for people to talk up a man as a plausible candidate, but for that person to decide not to run.

The fact that Christie didn't make a grab for the nomination in the primaries, to me, suggests that he won't be throwing his hat into the ring in the convention, even if the primaries don't settle the matter eventually, which they might. Paul never had a real chance, Santorum is wobbly for all his success in these two. Gingrich has a shot- he has what it takes to go toe to toe with Romney in debate, and enough reputation that he can pull in money to keep his campaign going.

But it's probably going to reduce to a primary race of Romney vs. Gingrich sooner or later, and by the time of the convention it will be reasonably clear. Though the smoke-filled room possibility is entertaining, and perhaps a bit frightening, I think a big part of the reason we're having such an intense primary season for the Republicans in the first place is that the party leadership is having trouble keeping the various factions (fundamentalist, corporatist, war-hawk, anarcho-libertarian) united behind a single man the way they united behind Bush. A compromise candidate would have to stop and convince all the fragments of the Republican base to unite behind him before he could even start to cope with the general election.

Tsyroc wrote:

Dalton wrote:As long as it makes for good television, this primary season will go all the fuck the way to Tampa. And give me a fuckton of 4am nights.

I hope you aren't salaried.

Fuck no.

Simon_Jester wrote:

Pelranius wrote:Does Christie have any sort of shady baggage from New Jersey? It would certainly explain why he explicitly ruled out running this time.

He may have just decided he doesn't want to be president, or doesn't want to be president right now. It's hardly uncommon for people to talk up a man as a plausible candidate, but for that person to decide not to run.

The fact that Christie didn't make a grab for the nomination in the primaries, to me, suggests that he won't be throwing his hat into the ring in the convention, even if the primaries don't settle the matter eventually, which they might. Paul never had a real chance, Santorum is wobbly for all his success in these two. Gingrich has a shot- he has what it takes to go toe to toe with Romney in debate, and enough reputation that he can pull in money to keep his campaign going.

But it's probably going to reduce to a primary race of Romney vs. Gingrich sooner or later, and by the time of the convention it will be reasonably clear. Though the smoke-filled room possibility is entertaining, and perhaps a bit frightening, I think a big part of the reason we're having such an intense primary season for the Republicans in the first place is that the party leadership is having trouble keeping the various factions (fundamentalist, corporatist, war-hawk, anarcho-libertarian) united behind a single man the way they united behind Bush. A compromise candidate would have to stop and convince all the fragments of the Republican base to unite behind him before he could even start to cope with the general election.

Another part of the issue is of course that the candidates represent freaky alliances between at least two of these factions, and a few others. These others make them unpalatable to large portions of the voting block.

Mittens: Corporatist Mormon milquetoast
The Malignant Threshold Salamander : Hypocritical and Fraudulent Fundamentalist Corporatist Warhawk
Rectal Slime: Retrograde Catholic Fundamentalist Corporate Whore
Ron Paul (his name is all the joke I need): Fundamentalist Anarcho-Skinhead

Texas has open primaries, and I intend to vote in the GOP one just so I can help the most repulsive candidate in the convention... but... I actually dont know who to vote for...

Alyrium Denryle wrote:
Texas has open primaries, and I intend to vote in the GOP one just so I can help the most repulsive candidate in the convention... but... I actually dont know who to vote for...

By your criteria Ron Paul as Ron Paul is not going to win, but every delegate he gets, gives him a bigger voice at the conference. And if he gains enough to play King-maker between Mittens at 897 and Santorum at 868 with Paul having gotten 200 along the way to put one or the other over the top means he will have enough clout to affect the platform which could result in either someone not on the ballet or a schizophrenic Republican platform for the election.

I wonder if this primary season merits its own catchall thread?

In any case, Mitty took Maine, Ron Paul 2nd, Santorum 3rd.

Do they proportion the delegates? Because it's so close that it may be another tie if they do.

It doesn't appear to be a winner-take-all state, so the delegate assignments have not happened yet (they won't happen until the Convention anyway). NBC has not yet projected the totals.

Dalton wrote:I wonder if this primary season merits its own catchall thread?

In any case, Mitty took Maine, Ron Paul 2nd, Santorum 3rd.

Considering there will be an ongoing stream of Primaries, a Sticky might be applicable for the election season, at least until the General Election hits.

That said not exactly surprised Mittens took Maine.
The north isn't evangelical enough for Icky Ricky and there isn't a tea party base to support Newt.

Well 5% is still out, and it wouldn't surprise me if that leans towards Paul since the voting won't happen until later and Willard has already "won". God I hate Caucuses.

Flagg wrote:Well 5% is still out, and it wouldn't surprise me if that leans towards Paul since the voting won't happen until later and Willard has already "won". God I hate Caucuses.

These are the official results as released by the Maine GOP. From what I have heard there will be no further updates of these numbers.

That's bizarre. There is only 95% in. These cunts tell people they can't vote if they don't have a fucking picture ID and they can't even run a goddamned election.

Flagg wrote:That's bizarre. There is only 95% in. These cunts tell people they can't vote if they don't have a fucking picture ID and they can't even run a goddamned election.

*shrug* There are still several county caucuses to go, but I don't think they're going to matter much. However, keep in mind that no delegates are assigned until the Convention, but I don't foresee much of a change in terms of the percentage. Romney and Paul will likely earn equal amounts of delegates.

Dalton wrote:I wonder if this primary season merits its own catchall thread?

Probably. This is, what, thread #4? Maybe we should just sticky this and/or turn it into the official GOP Primary Thread.

I'm going to merge everything.

EDIT: I've merged all the primary/caucus threads into here. Any discussion about upcoming races should go in here.