Korea versus America

[K. A. Pital]

KK, well, you should know that the South and North propose confederation or commonwealth style unification, gradually, with both states retaining their political systems (hence why I used the China-HK example, even if economically it was much different).

What does this result in? NK will have investment, SK will have some cheap labour, at the initial stage of the unification. Perhaps later (some X years into the future after unification) SK and NK totally merge, but this will most likely happen only as NK's economic structure transforms into a service economy like the South. Because running a devalued resources industry and agriculture in the naturally poor Korean Peninsula isn't a good idea, NK's system will experience a transformation similar to, say, China - the creation of massive non-resource industries while at the same time increase in services sector.

So, this isn't a "momentarily take all North Koreans and turn them into rich people" fairy tale, it will be an intergration of an autharkian economy into the SEA productive chain. SK is already investing in joint ventures on NK territory, with the gradual unification, this process is likely to speed up.

[KrauserKrauser]

Ok, so if they approach it as they should by isolating the Norks and spread the investment required to rebuild their infrastructure over the course of a few decades then they can definitely integrate without much damage.

I'm just using recent history as an example of how when people not allowed the freedoms present in the new joining region, are exposed to the new freedoms, things snow ball much faster than the planners inevitably expect. Unless you want to keep the repressive regime of the Norks.

I guess it's just an exercise in how much you don't give a shit about your fellow citizens and how long you are willing to exploit them to your own benefit.

Also, the idea in the OP was that the North suddenly joined with the South. All of the reunification wankers believe that it is the US that is holding back reunification and not, you know, the reality that North Korea is a pile of shit, a black hole economically and socially speaking.

I will laugh for hours anytime I hear that the US is behind there being two Koreas and not the fact that the immediate joining of the two nations would bankrupt South Korea something fierce.

[K. A. Pital]

Unless you want to keep the repressive regime of the Norks.

After Kim dies, the NORK regime is most likely to go the way of China/Vietnam anyway if they want to keep the power positions. The only way for NORK to validate itself would be to join with the South under a common opposition (to the US, imperialism, etc) and present themselves as great unifiers. I would believe this would cause a lot of concessions from SK, and a Gorbachevian/Khrushevian figure in NORK would be legitimized to operate the North Korean side of the transition for the unification.

The question is, are there really any such figures? NORK is perpetually stuck in an age of Stalinism under Kim, but with his death things may change. After all, even Kim himself acted to start the re-unification process - something that was hardly possible in the 80's.

[Big Orange]

After this 'scandal' he sued for peace. It wasn't suitcase nukes in New York and DC, it was a DUI that brought the world's remaining superpower to its' knees.

God, that's terrible.

And it's in Engrish!

Anyway criticizing bad writing like that is like shooting at swarms of sheep flocked together with a M2 Browning machine gun. Why the fuck do seemingly rational and otherwise secular South Koreans buy into this bullshit, this must be a parody (I think KrauserKrauser thought up of a more convicing scenario about North Korea defeating the free world).

[brianeyci]

I guess it's just an exercise in how much you don't give a shit about your fellow citizens and how long you are willing to exploit them to your own benefit.

Come on man give me a break. Just because I don't donate every penny and bankrupt myself to starving Africans, doesn't mean I don't give a shit about them. If the South Koreans don't want to bankrupt themselves helping the North Koreans when they "unify" (and I use that term loosely) that doesn't mean they're any better or worse human beings for it, if the economic reality is they can't extend all services and benefits without shooting themselves.

Though you're right, the context of the op is some ridiculous instant-hitch scenario, so maybe this was the wrong venue for me to bring all this up. But I have a feeling if this was a serious discussion about unifying North and South you would have the same argument. The problem with the GDP argument is it's one-dimensional--you could use the same argument and say for example, all immigration is bad, because people emigrating to the US of A have less money and therefore bring down the per capita of the country. If your argument is the gap, 28% is too huge, well that's just a simplistic way of looking at it. Do you think the South Koreans will be so altruistic as to give away their private purchasing power to the North Koreans instantly as you suggest with the GDP. It'll be like any country, just a lot more poor people, as long as they don't do stupid things like the Germans did in making their currency the same and immediately integrating (whatever the Germans intent, they did so by dissolving the East German government.) If the services will bankrupt them, then there's a simple solution, they just won't give the services to the Norks. I don't know anybody who bankrupts themselves donating money to altruistic causes except for nutcases. Yes, you used the word bankrupt. You'll note the Germans did not bankrupt themselves.

[mr friendly guy]

Did anyone see how the war ended?

Then came the next scandal, the US Presidents son and three girls he was driving were killed in a car accident, all of them under the influence of drugs; none of them were wearing seatbelts. A witness claimed that the accident was stage by two Amerasian drivers who had trapped the Presidents sons car, but it was never proven.

After this 'scandal' he sued for peace. It wasn't suitcase nukes in New York and DC, it was a DUI that brought the world's remaining superpower to its' knees.

God, that's terrible.

You are right. It should have involved the president in a sex scandal with a white house interns. That would have forced the president to his knees.

[KrauserKrauser]

They'll have to give the services to the North eventually, if they give them voting rights, they'll demand them and they will get them if they are vocal enough in a representative government, like the one in South Korea. Fine, they won't be bankrupt, mea culpa, they'll be severely in debt, nice nitpick.

So, if they don't give the Northerners the same rights as the Southerners then everything will be fine and dandy like cotton candy? I was under the impression that a permanent underclass in first world nations are somewhat of a bad thing and lead to quite a bit of social unrest which has a nasty habit of creating economic unrest.

My argument goes out the window if the South Koreans make it into law that coming from teh North somehow makes you inferior under the law, even AFTER unification. This isn't the US not granting the rights to Mexican citizens in teh country illegally. This is the US deciding that citizens from Texas don't get federal benefits, because they are too poor (Assuming Texas just joined the Union, work with me here).

If the US came into union with Mexico, it would most definitely result in massive debt for the US as by making them all citizens of the US, they would be entitled to teh same rights as the people from the pre-union US. A couple million a year in a country of 200+ millions is an order of magnitude different from a one time 40% addition to the social costs on the country's economy. The 40% increase would be the same as if 80+ million Mexicans came across the border and became US citizens, you're telling me that would not have drastically horrible consequences of teh US economy?

[brianeyci]

See that's the thing. I don't believe that millions of North Koreans will emigrate to South Korea upon unification. You've said this over and over as if it were fact, and I've questioned it since my very first post. Is there any proof of this, namely millions of North Koreans trying to escape into South Korea just like there were millions of East Germans escaping into any Western country. I will even take proof of North Koreans escaping into China as valid. Note that it was not the fall of the Berlin Wall and the GDR border system which precipitated the mass exodus... these were created in response to mass emigration, so your idea that should NK and SK reunify suddenly millions of NK's will abandon their homeland at the least requires proof.

You seem to think that expose the North Koreans to the wonderful luxuries of the West, or South Korea, that they will want to leave their homes and emigrate because their lives are so completely shit. That's why I brought up Saddam. North Korea is not just Kim and that's it, although its as close as it can be. Kim dies, they won't suddenly be South Koreans. Koreans are not Europeans either.

In short, proof of millions or even hundreds of thousands of North Koreans trying to escape would be nice. I will even accept trying to escape and not real escapees like what happened with the iron curtain. Even some proof of the Korean welfare system becoming overwhelmed should Northerners arrive in large numbers would be nice.

[KrauserKrauser]

The thing is what triggered the mass exodus from East to West Germany, or from Southern Italy to Northern Italy, or from Slovakia to the Czhech Republic, or from the poor regions of France, Spain, Portugal, Britain to the affluent ones? What brings the millions of illegals from Mexico to the US?

Jobs. Good jobs. In most cases not even good jobs, just the promise of jobs.

How do you keep them from flooding into the affluent areas? You make jobs for them, or you buy them off. Be it in government work as in Italy, or you pay subsidies to keep them in their farming areas in France or you pay off Mexico to try and raise their standard of living to keep them from exhausting your social services.

You are right in one thing, teh North Koreans are definitely not European. They are a cowed populace that is taught from birth that they have it better than the rest of the world and that they are lucky to be so prosperous. Dissidents are shot, imprisoned and isolated from teh general populace in a thought control process so thorough that, when combined with the cult of personality that surrounds Kim, the citizenry of North Korea simply do not know how bad off they are.

Even the Nazis or the Soviets never had as much thought control going as the Kim's have been able to achieve in North Korea. Stalin would cream his pants to see the control that the Kims have been able to put on the populace.

What happens when they find out that just past the DMZ is a comparative paradise? Do you really think that once they find out that there are jobs, food, money, everything just across the border the population won't want to get the fuck out of dodge, because dodge is a shitpile? Looking at all of the transfers of people after the fall of Communism, or even after WW2, the people always moved to where the conditions were better, unless they were able to get financial benefits for staying.

The Norks simply don't know how bad they have it, and the South Koreans will have to enact drastic measures to stop them once they find out how bad their situation is and how close relative abundance is for them.

Making an argument that the Norks haven't yet tried to break out is just throwing out common sense. If they are constantly told that they are better off than the rest of the world and the power structure in place is thorough enough to make sure issenting voices get squashed, then why would they try to leave, they would only be going into what they believe to be worse conditions.

That's why I brought up Saddam. North Korea is not just Kim and that's it, although its as close as it can be. Kim dies, they won't suddenly be South Koreans. Koreans are not Europeans either.

People are people, they inevitable go to where the jobs are. If not there wouldn't still be lines of future police officers being blown up every day in Iraq. The siren's call of a steady paycheck is quite seductive.

Iraq and the Korea split have jack shit in common when considering unification, you're comparison is stupid. Iraq didn't have an affluent counterpart looking to join the two countries together. Doesn't matter if Kim dies. When the countries are unified they are all Koreans. And in South Korea, which will be the one dictating the terms, that means they will all be under a representative democracy that will in course have equal protection under the law for all citizens.

That means once they form the true union, they will have to pay the costs for a 40% increase in population, something that they would insane to do in any short period of time. Give it 50 years, and you might have a shot at getting North Korea back to some semblance of a 3rd or even 2nd world nation, not the hellhole that it is now.

Even some proof of the Korean welfare system becoming overwhelmed should Northerners arrive in large numbers would be nice.

Come back to reality man. The increase of just 1-2% growth from illegals are having a toll on teh social spending in America, which can more readily absorb the population due to its greater economy, etc. You are telling me that a 40% increase in the population that the same social services would have to cover isn't going to be back breaking?

[K. A. Pital]

Give it 50 years, and you might have a shot at getting North Korea back to some semblance of a 3rd or even 2nd world nation, not the hellhole that it is now.

Wrong. NK is already a 3rd world nation. To become 2nd world it requires massive investment to boost national income per capita to say ~3000 USD, whilst slowly transforming it's redistribution system and creating private light industry and services companies (the best would be joint NKSK ventures that would slowly pump the money into NK and drive it up to a level at which you can fully integrate both economies.

Neither do you need 50 years to transit from an agrarian economy to an industrial one and then into services. I personally can name several crash industrializations which ran over the course of 10 years (more or less) with success.

So what precludes crash industrialization (light industry) and then "servicization" of North Korea? Nothing, actually.

[KrauserKrauser]

What time frame do you consider "crash"?

If you want to spread the investment into North Korea over a long time period to reduce the negative impact that will have on your economy, that is the smart thing to do if you want t persue unification.

However, my main argument is against the sort of unification that the OP and idiots in South Korea are accusing the US of getting in the way of. In their alternate reality, if they unified tomorrow and made everybody in North Korea and South Korea have equal social status and therefore access to the same services, you just succeeded in throwing one of the world's stronger countries into economic peril.

The idea that it can be done without a long lead time is prepostorous, you and Brianecyi are right in that the North can successfully integrate into the North, but I am also right in saying that that cannot happen for a significant amount of time. 50 years might be too long, but coming from teh backwardsness that is North Korea, 10 years is a bit on the optomistic side. Germany is still feeling the economic reprecussions of unification, South Korea will feel them for much longer if they don't approach unification very very warily.

[K. A. Pital]

What time frame do you consider "crash"?

Around ten years. I already said that. Example of agrarian-to-industrial rise: USSR 1930's, from 70% of population in peasantry to industrial civilization. Example of industrial-to-service rise: Finland and SK itself (timeframe: ~10 years).

So, all in all, give NK 20 years and massive investment, and it will work. The key is, again massive _direct_ investment and crash programs.

Not just liberalizing it all and incorporating NK into SK momentarily, and "letting the shit float - if they can't, well too bad". This would indeed be a humanitarian disaster.

In their alternate reality, if they unified tomorrow and made everybody in North Korea and South Korea have equal social status and therefore access to the same services, you just succeeded in throwing one of the world's stronger countries into economic peril.

Well, that's idiotic (overnight unification?!! WTF they smoke). Though clearly, SK's fall or stand would not impact global economy significantly. It might cause a crisis in SEA, primarily the SK-Japanese influence sphere, but that's all.

50 years might be too long, but coming from teh backwardsness that is North Korea, 10 years is a bit on the optomistic side.

10 years isn't. Look, people ran industrializations from almost 100% peasant societies to industrial economies in such terms, even _before_ there were massive capitals abound to run such programs, and succeeded.

Today SK has a huge reserve of capital, it could use that to run a very fast crash industrialization in NK.

[CJvR]

The North Koreans are trying to escape, but it is hard to cross the worlds most heavily guarded armistice line. Hard on the level of the iron curtain type! The only other option is through China to some sympathetic embassy, since China dump Korans back into the pit from where they came. The Korean trickle is about the same as the DDR one was and we all know how pleased the DDRians were with their state. Once you breach the dam holding the Norks in place you will get flooded. The German unification was brought about so hastely partly to prevent the depopulation of the east and stem the corresponding flood into the west. Thinking that something simillar will not happen in Korea is crazy, the moment the guards are not allowed to shoot anymore the North will implode unless the South props it up with huge subsidies.

[Sam Or I]

http://www.hrw.org/reports/2002/northkorea/

[j1j2j3]

Just to clarify though,

Don't think that everyone in SK thinks that the OP is a plausible scenario, or the US is getting in the way of unification.

There are radicals wherever you go, and SK is no exception. I for one never even heard of this book ; this book is far from popular culture.

Also the most current GDP figures are $29100 for SK and $460 for NK (2006 , SK gov figures) which would make reintegration even worse.

Again most people don't even want reunification, other than some places to build ski resorts the north has nothing that we would want or need.

[Ritterin Sophia]

It's not the book I'm worried about being popular, it's the sentiments contained within, and that little riot outside of an American Army base clearly showed there's enough force behind it. I'm sorry but it seems to me that the younger South Koreans (They were probably 18-25, give or take) should know what would happen if a complete reunification occured within the next week or couple years, instead of gradually over an extended time.