WWI if Russia & US declared neutrality

[Thanas]

Dominarch's Hope has already been banned by me. You are talking to thin air.

Yes there is. Free the baltic states and Lithuania, give Lithuania Russian Poland.

Say what?

Giving Lithuania Russian Poland is about as good idea as giving USA to Canada or Germany to Austria - it's about as big economic and population difference. Except, wait, it's even worse, as Lithuania in 1918 had huge Polish minority (reverse being not true), to the point Lithuanians were actually minority in their own capital! Any combined state like this would just end up in revolt pretty quickly and just be renamed "Poland" month later.

Still better than having an austrian puppet Poland.

So you say the Germans would just let keep Russia a state perfectly poised to strike into economic heartland of Posen and Silesia instead of giving it to the only ally they had? That strikes me as rather dubious idea, especially combined with creating indefensible puppets Germany has no land access to that would be just major drain on German defence commitment. Puppeting Finland before Poland?

Perfectly poised? I disagree there. Attacking into Posen and Silesia without having the baltics as a flank to fall on is very hard.

Also Germany would have land access to the baltics and you do not need land access to provide enough assistance to Finland considering the territory.

It would create major headache for Germany, similar to the situation of Koenigsberg in 1933, except on much larger scale and with much larger logistical problems. I can see puppeting Poland, and maybe one or two of Baltic states, but Finland? Without 1917 Russian collapse and Lenin's 'peace at any cost' it's completely preposterous. These are not some random pieces of land, it happens to be Russia's only access to Baltic Sea and buffer of their capital, it's one of the last pieces of estate Russia would give willingly.

Nobody asked them if they would do it, nobody is going to ask them in a hypothetical German victory.

[Welf]

As for the military wanting to annex things, I would like to see some evidence of what they actually wanted. I doubt it is "full blown annexation of Eastern Poland and the Ukraine", plus I very much doubt that they would have gotten their stamp on the peace treaty.

Why wouldn't they have control? The military already had massive influence before WWI, both on society and the Kaiser. Another victory would have strengthen them even further. Only Wilhelm II would have had the authority to force them to a reasonable peace threaty, and he was too much of a weak character for that.

Most Germans saw the Polish as annoying rabble that took far too long to be integrated. No way in hell would they want to increase the number of Poles in their country. Even more important, the Polish territories they could have possibly gained were not in any way appealing to Germany considering they were underdeveloped and had no important resources.

Most Germans may have thought so, but the Reich wasn't a democracy. Historically there have been successful Germanization of poles. The amount of XY-kowskis in current Germany is testament of this. And after a victory everything looks possible. The problem with an even larger polish population might not even be considered a problem by the military, since most of them were Prussians, and not few of them had estates with polish tenants. Hindenburg was from East Prussia, Luddendorff from Posen. To them more polish subjects probably seemed manageable.

So Germany may not have had interest in annexations, or had realistic plans before WWI, but annexations are a thing military does after victories. And after a victorious WWI (or rather: 2nd Franco–German War, out of 3) that would have been enough reason.

[Thanas]

As for the military wanting to annex things, I would like to see some evidence of what they actually wanted. I doubt it is "full blown annexation of Eastern Poland and the Ukraine", plus I very much doubt that they would have gotten their stamp on the peace treaty.

Why wouldn't they have control? The military already had massive influence before WWI, both on society and the Kaiser. Another victory would have strengthen them even further. Only Wilhelm II would have had the authority to force them to a reasonable peace threaty, and he was too much of a weak character for that.

Complete BS. The military did not have massive influence on the scale that you claim or otherwise they would not even have such difficulty in getting budgets passed. The military had even less comparable influence than say, the British admiralty, who managed to both push for and get massive budget increases when they wanted them.

What you are talking about is the OHL after 1916, at which point the Kaiser gave away much power to Hindenburg. But this was widely understood to be an emergency situation and decidedly not the norm for the normal doings.

Most Germans may have thought so, but the Reich wasn't a democracy.

It was a constitutional monarchy, so yes, a democracy by today's standards.

Historically there have been successful Germanization of poles. The amount of XY-kowskis in current Germany is testament of this. And after a victory everything looks possible.

No, actually the successful Germanization of poles has more to do with the integration of them into the industrial work force in the Ruhr. Look at where the names of those are concentrated at - they are almost nearly all concentrated near the industrial centers.

The problem with an even larger polish population might not even be considered a problem by the military, since most of them were Prussians, and not few of them had estates with polish tenants. Hindenburg was from East Prussia, Luddendorff from Posen. To them more polish subjects probably seemed manageable.

No, the Junker elite was virulently anti-polish. Evidenced by the fact that intermarriages with Polish nobility or integration of Polish nobility was not known. Heck, they integrated all kinds of other nobility into the Junkers, including Scots, French, Austrians, Danish, Swedes, Russian and even Baltic nobility. Not polish.

So Germany may not have had interest in annexations, or had realistic plans before WWI, but annexations are a thing military does after victories. And after a victorious WWI (or rather: 2nd Franco–German War, out of 3) that would have been enough reason.

I disagree. The military would not have gained control of the political process and would be more interested in French annexations than Polish ones.

[Welf]

It was a constitutional monarchy, so yes, a democracy by today's standards.

It wasn't a democracy by today's standards. Germans were subjects, not citizens, the sovereign were the princes and cities. The states didn't have suffrage. Prussia as biggest state had its three-class franchise. And since the central government was supposed to be rather weak, that made a difference. Of course that was just the theory, and this constituional framework was already out of date when it was introduced. With the socialdemocrats, the unions, political organized Catholicism and the national liberal movement there were nation-wide political institutions that shifted more and more power to the Bundestag. But the Reich was probably still a generation away from becoming a real democracy.

Complete BS. The military did not have massive influence on the scale that you claim or otherwise they would not even have such difficulty in getting budgets passed. The military had even less comparable influence than say, the British admiralty, who managed to both push for and get massive budget increases when they wanted them.

What you are talking about is the OHL after 1916, at which point the Kaiser gave away much power to Hindenburg. But this was widely understood to be an emergency situation and decidedly not the norm for the normal doings.

I don't think those two can be compared. The federal budget was mostly about the military, so the Reichstag didn't have any other leverage against the government. And unlike the British parliament the budget was only decided upon every 7 years. So only every second election period the could even try to make bargains and use their leverage. Add the fact that only in 1911 Reich got sufficient financing by taxes, and the states didn't like giving away money, it's no real wonder the military had problems with the budgets.

No, actually the successful Germanization of poles has more to do with the integration of them into the industrial work force in the Ruhr. Look at where the names of those are concentrated at - they are almost nearly all concentrated near the industrial centers.

No, the Junker elite was virulently anti-polish. Evidenced by the fact that intermarriages with Polish nobility or integration of Polish nobility was not known. Heck, they integrated all kinds of other nobility into the Junkers, including Scots, French, Austrians, Danish, Swedes, Russian and even Baltic nobility. Not polish.

I didn't want to suggest that they would try to integrate them, but turn them into German speaking subjects.

[Thanas]

It wasn't a democracy by today's standards.

Neither was any other "democracy" of that time.

Germans were subjects, not citizens, the sovereign were the princes and cities. The states didn't have suffrage. Prussia as biggest state had its three-class franchise. And since the central government was supposed to be rather weak, that made a difference. Of course that was just the theory, and this constituional framework was already out of date when it was introduced. With the socialdemocrats, the unions, political organized Catholicism and the national liberal movement there were nation-wide political institutions that shifted more and more power to the Bundestag. But the Reich was probably still a generation away from becoming a real democracy.

Don't forget free and general elections which Bismarck instituted.

I don't think those two can be compared. The federal budget was mostly about the military, so the Reichstag didn't have any other leverage against the government. And unlike the British parliament the budget was only decided upon every 7 years. So only every second election period the could even try to make bargains and use their leverage. Add the fact that only in 1911 Reich got sufficient financing by taxes, and the states didn't like giving away money, it's no real wonder the military had problems with the budgets.

That doesn't mean anything in the context of the miltiary getting what it wants. It most definitely did not, not to the degree in other nations.

I didn't want to suggest that they would try to integrate them, but turn them into German speaking subjects.

But having more non-german subjects was not the aim of the Reich. And if you teach them German and get German culture, that is integration.

[Welf]

Don't forget free and general elections which Bismarck instituted.

Yes, but only on federal level. The states didn't, and the more powerful Bundesrat was filled by the non-elected princes.

That doesn't mean anything in the context of the miltiary getting what it wants. It most definitely did not, not to the degree in other nations.

That means a lot. It means the stacks were much higher at budget negotiations.

[Thanas]

Don't forget free and general elections which Bismarck instituted.

Yes, but only on federal level. The states didn't, and the more powerful Bundesrat was filled by the non-elected princes.

Yeah, and again, within the context of the times it still makes it a constitutional monarchy and as democratic as other nations.

That means a lot. It means the stacks were much higher at budget negotiations.

Look, if you continue to pretend that the military in state A, which does not get its way to the extent it wants, has more power to the military in state B, which needs to just ring up newspapers to force the parliament to bend its knee, has actually more power, then you are delusional.