UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by LadyTevar »

madd0c0t0r2 wrote: 2024-04-11 06:32am Do we take Sisko returning to years old, pretty laughable talking points as evidence that there's no positive news coming out of Russia?
Ie this is what their 'you're interested in this, so you may like that' algorithm news feed is currently feeding them.

I know for sure I'm getting tiny puff pieces on drone warfare and naff all else
There was a bit where Ukraine claimed to have blown up some planes and damaged others at a Russian base, but nothing that was really newsworthy

And today, a Key Ukrainian Power Plant was destroyed by Russian air strikes.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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Lithuania sends new batch of military aid to Ukraine
Lithuania has once again extended military assistance to Ukraine. On Thursday, April 11, Ukraine received drones, generators, and cot beds for its armed forces, according to the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence.

"Lithuania stands by Ukraine continuously. We assist Ukraine with all means possible and explore avenues to enhance our support. The weaponry and equipment supplied by us and our allies make a decisive contribution to Ukraine's fight for freedom," stated Laurynas Kasčiūnas, the Minister of National Defence.

The ministry noted that in response to Ukraine's requests, Lithuania has already supplied 155-millimeter ammunition, M577 armoured personnel carriers, anti-drone defence systems, winter gear, tens of thousands of sets of warm clothing, thousands of rounds for the Carl Gustaf anti-tank grenade launcher, and the RISE-1 remote detonation system this year.

"Lithuania's support to Ukraine is long-term and amounts to one billion euros. Lithuania has provided Ukraine with military aid totalling approximately 610 million euros. This year alone, around 84 million euros have been provided, with the aim of maintaining such a pace of support," the statement from the ministry read.

Lithuania's assistance to Ukraine

Since the onset of the full-scale Russian invasion, Lithuania has emerged as one of Ukraine's most active allies. It not only provides military aid to our defenders but also supports Ukraine's membership in the European Union and NATO.

In January, Lithuania approved a long-term aid package for Ukraine worth 200 million euros, as announced by President Gitanas Nauseda during his visit to Kyiv.

Moreover, in early April, Lithuania announced plans to procure nearly 3,000 FPV drones for the Ukrainian army, allocating 2 million euros from the Lithuanian budget for this purpose.

Just before these developments, Lithuania's Minister of National Defence, Laurynas Kasčiūnas, visited Kyiv and met with President Zelensky.

Furthermore, Lithuania will support Ukraine in restoring its energy infrastructure.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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bilateralrope wrote: 2024-04-10 11:55pm
Lets go through the results it gave me, in order:
https://who.is/
https://www.whois.com/whois/
https://www.gprivate.com/about.html
https://www.domainz.net.nz/whois/
https://www.name.com/whois-lookup

Not one of them even attempts to answer my questions.

Next time you think a search query will answer a question, I suggest you check before posting the link that shows how lazy you are. Oh and a better search engine will probably help.
That's his MO, with sources that are either located behind a paywall, do not support his position and in one case, actually undermines it. He once asked if he could be in the parting shots thread, I have the feeling he'll be the guest of honour. :mrgreen:

Germany's new military aid package for Ukraine and Global peace summit timing - Wednesday brief
Germany has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, drones and artillery shells included. Meanwhile, Switzerland has decided on the timing of the Global Peace Summit.

RBC-Ukraine collected the main news for April 9.

Switzerland set dates for Global peace summit

Switzerland will host a two-day Global Peace Summit on June 15th and 16th. Russia will not participate in it, informs The Guardian.

The conference will take place from June 15th to 16th at the Bürgenstock resort in the Nidwalden canton near Lucerne. The summit will focus on creating frameworks conducive to long-term peace in Ukraine, as well as a "a concrete roadmap for Russia's participation in the peace process."

EU aid to Ukraine: European Commission on when second tranche will come
The European Commission has informed the EU Steering Committee about the allocation of €4.5 billion to Ukraine in March as part of interim financing.

This program provides much-needed liquidity for the functioning of the state, such as payment of wages, pensions, and provision of essential government services, enabling Ukraine to continue focusing efforts on winning the war.

"A second tranche of pre-financing of €1.5 billion to Ukraine is foreseen in April, subject to a positive assessment of the fulfilment of agreed conditions," the statement reads.

Biden may participate in future conference on Ukraine in Switzerland, media reports

US President Joe Biden may take part in a high-level conference on peace in Ukraine to be held in Switzerland around mid-June.

NZZ, citing sources, says that US President Joe Biden would attend the conference.

So far, President Biden has not confirmed his participation in the American delegation, according to a spokesperson for the US Embassy in Bern.

However, the chances of Biden's arrival have increased. He is scheduled to attend the G7 summit in Italy just before the planned conference on Ukraine.

Germany announces new package of military aid for Ukraine: Details

Germany has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine. Among other things, the list includes drones and artillery shells, according to the German government.

Here is a full list of the contents of the new military support package:

・1 Warthog all-terrain vehicle (command vehicle) - nine of them were previously transferred;

・2 WISENT 1 demining vehicles - 32 vehicles were previously transferred;

・6,000 155 mm caliber shells - 68,000 rounds of ammunition were previously delivered;

・16 Vector reconnaissance drones - 196 units were previously delivered;

・30 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones - 185 units were previously delivered;

・30 sets of drone countermeasures - 40 units were previously transferred;

・11 mobile demining systems - 9 of these systems were previously transferred;

・3 mine trawls - 43 of them were previously transferred;

・70 infrared cameras - 330 units were previously transferred;

・680 Haenel MK556 assault rifles - 305 units were previously transferred;

・120 Haenel CR308 rifles;

・24 boat engines;

・50 Haenel HLR338 sniper rifles - 15 units were previously delivered;

・1,000 000 rounds of ammunition for small arms;

・5,000 detonators.

Germany assists Ukraine through supplies to the Federal Armed Forces and supplies to industry financed by the Federal Government.

Pentagon calls Russian oil refineries' civilian targets'

The United States is concerned about Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. Washington considers refineries to be civilian targets, states Celeste Wallander, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs.

"The issue on attacking critical infrastructure is when those are civilian targets, we have concerns," Wallander stated, commenting on strikes against Russian oil refineries.

She further noted that Ukraine holds itself to the highest standards of observing the laws of armed conflict and that is "one of the elements of being a European democracy".

Russian Ka-27 helicopter destroyed in Crimea - Navy

Russian Ka-27 helicopter was destroyed in temporarily occupied Crimea, according to Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk.

"Minus one Russian Ka-27 in Crimea. It was looking for something. It found it," Pletenchuk wrote.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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Ukraine passes controversial mobilisation bill to boost troop numbers to fight Putin’s invasion
Ukraine’s parliament has passed a controversial long-awaited mobilisation bill as it seeks more troops to fight against Vladimir Putin’s invading forces – after a general said that Russian soldiers outnumbered Kyiv's by up to ten times on the battlefield in the east..

The legislation, which must be signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky before it becomes law, is seen as crucial for Ukraine to address what military analysts say are major manpower problems as it fights Russia.

Senior Ukrainian military personnel have cited the lack of manpower as one of the two most significant reasons - the other being artillery shortages - for Russia being able to regain the initiative on the frontline in recent months. Prior to his resignation late last year, the former military chief Valery Zaluzhny had called for 500,000 more Ukrainians to be mobilised.

"Pass this law and the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not let down you or the Ukrainian people," General Yuriy Sodol, commander of the joint forces, told MPs. "The enemy outnumbers us by seven to 10 times, we lack manpower," said Sodol, who is commanding Kyiv's troops in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine.

Earlier this week, Oleksandr Pavliuk, the ground forces commander, called on Ukrainians to enlist in the army or to be ready to serve.

​​“We must realise, no one will be able to sit tight,” he wrote on Facebook. “No matter how much help we get, no matter how many weapons we have, we lack people! The equipment doesn’t drive by itself, the weapon doesn’t shoot by itself, and the drone won’t fly by itself.”

The new bill has undergone more than 4,000 amendments and an initial, more contentious version was withdrawn in January as politicians in Kyiv disagreed over how best to mobilise more civilians.

The most controversial aspect of the new bill is the removal of provisions on demobilisation, which previously foresaw soldiers having the right to leave the military after 36 months of service.

A spokesperson for Ukraine’s defence ministry said it was too “hasty” to include such a provision in this bill given the dangerous situation on the frontline.

“The General Staff, which understands the operational situation and the threats and risks that the state faces, has expressed their concerns [with demobilisation of troops],” spokesperson Dmytro Lazutkin told Ukrainian TV broadcasters earlier this week. “We cannot make hasty decisions right now.”

He said a separate bill on demobilisation will be drafted in the next eight months.

According to a letter obtained by Ukrainska Pravda, the removal of demobilisation from the bill came at the direct request of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Of the provisions remaining in the bill, key points include the right of disabled soldiers and those who have returned from captivity to discharge themselves, and the introduction of mandatory medical commission checks for those who previously held the “partially eligible” status.

The new bill was passed in its final reading with a majority of 283 votes after months of deliberations, Yaroslav Zhelezniak, a lawmaker for the Holos party, wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

A full, final text with all the amendments was not immediately published on the parliament’s websites.

It was clear the bill sets no limit for the length of time that mobilised soldiers have to serve during the war, a highly sensitive issue for the many thousands of people who joined the army when Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

MP Oleksandr Fedienko said the adoption of the law on mobilisation sent a “message to our partners that we are ready to retake our territory and we need weapons.”

It took the Ukrainian parliament several months to put the bill to a final vote this week, as politicians accused each other of drafting poorly-worded amendments and lacking the political will to approve unpopular changes.

It comes as Russia launched another barrage of missiles and drones across Ukraine overnight, an attack which destroyed a key large electricity plant near Kyiv, energy company Centrenergo said. Several other power facilities across the country were also hit.

Ukraine’s air force commander said air defences had shot down 18 of the incoming missiles and 39 drones. The attack used 82 missiles and drones in total, the military said.

The onslaught sparked further calls from Mr Zelensky for more air defences from Kyiv’s Western allies.

“All of our European neighbours and other partners see Ukraine’s critical need for air defence systems,” he wrote on X. “Right now, with our ability to overcome Russian terror, the world can demonstrate that all terror is treated equally as a crime.

“However, if Russia is allowed to continue doing so, if Russian missiles and "Shahed" drones continue to strike not only Ukraine but also the resolve of our allies, this will amount to a global licence for terror.

“We need air defence systems and other defence assistance, not just turning a blind eye and having lengthy discussions.”
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2024-04-11 01:23pm
That's his MO, with sources that are either located behind a paywall, do not support his position and in one case, actually undermines it. He once asked if he could be in the parting shots thread, I have the feeling he'll be the guest of honour. :mrgreen:
That has been my experience with people who think that linking to a search is evidence of their position. They quickly prove they they aren't reading their own search results.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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LadyTevar wrote: 2024-04-11 10:59am There was a bit where Ukraine claimed to have blown up some planes and damaged others at a Russian base, but nothing that was really newsworthy

And today, a Key Ukrainian Power Plant was destroyed by Russian air strikes.
Usually when the Ukrainians claim an airfield hit, its at least partially substantiated by satellite photos, but in this instance everyone (in the West) checked the day after satellite photos of the airfield and found no evidence that a single drone had hit anything at all Silly thing for them to talk up in all the circumstances:

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30684
According to the latest report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), there is no visual evidence suggesting Ukrainian troops damaged or destroyed aircraft or infrastructure at any of the four air bases targeted by drones early morning Friday, April 5.

Military analysts at ISW highlighted that geolocation footage revealed only explosions and activation of Russian air defence systems near all air bases, except for the one near Yeisk.
KraytKing wrote: 2024-04-10 12:33am Alright, yes, I'll give you this one. In the literal sense, Ukrainian defenses have been compromised due to the loss of Avdiivka. That was a defensive position, it was lost, and so it is true by definition that defenses have been compromised.

However, the implication that I took from your post a month ago, which may not have been charitable towards you I admit, was that there should exist some expectation of continued breakthrough and exploitation. The evidence of the last month is clear: the loss of Avdiivka was a tactical, not operational, victory for Russia, and resulted in Ukrainian casualties but NO larger breakthrough. Russian forces advanced quickly-by the standards of this war alone-for several days, and then reached the next line of defensible towns and were slowed to a crawl. Those towns have since largely been captured, at a visually confirmed ENORMOUS cost in machinery and, it is likely, manpower, but the Russian advance has not resumed the pace exhibited in late February and early March. To me, the most likely explanation is that Ukraine abandoned the non-defensible terrain during a hasty retreat, then was able to buy enough time in Orlivka, Tonenke, and Lastochkyne to emplace some defensive positions further west. Russia did NOT have the capacity to both break through Avdiivka AND effect a proper exploitation maneuver, despite indications that Avdiivka was more troublesome for the Ukrainian defenders than some would admit.

Ukrainian retreat across the front is generally what you would expect to see from a military in defensive posture that is a close match for its enemy. Holding positions against a positionally superior enemy is not advisable, as you yourself point out with regards to Bakhmut and other defensive battles. Nothing in the last two months indicates Russian capacity to inflict a major breakthrough, save Avdiivka; as outlined above, the breakthrough in Avdiivka indicates that even when the Russian military can effect a breakthrough, it lacks capacity for exploitation. The risk of Ukrainian collapse lowers further.
I don't think mooting a big Russian breakthrough after the fall of Avdiivka was the point of the tweet in question. In any event, the conditions for dramatic 'big arrow' breakthroughs in this war simply do not exist (yet, if ever?). As for 'enormous' costs in machinery, this is the same song and dance that is always sung whenever there is a defeat by either side - "yes, we lost, but look at the casualties the enemy took!"

This would only be significant if such claims were a. generally reliable (see above) and b. if reliable, greatly exceeded the capacity of the force to replace them and continue and the side inflicting them can replace their own losses. Both of which are dubious propositions. There's more waking up to this now in the pundit-sphere, but the "any day now" attitude towards Russian losses when Ukraine is by all metrics in a much worse position in terms of force generation and replacement has always been an extremely weird hope to cling to IMO.
The Ukrainian retreat confirmed what we already know--that Ukraine is generally reluctant to abandon a position unless forced. The Russian tunneling operation takes time to pay off--they had time to gather exploitation forces. Ukraine, once COMPELLED to abandon Avdiivka by total collapse, potentially suffered a few hundred captured and YET was able to completely blunt Russian exploitation.

Objectively, the loss of Avdiivka in chaos is a bad thing for Ukraine, no contest. But in terms of what it reveals to us non-military observers, I find it promising. It was a pell-mell retreat, there might have been a pocket formed, and YET, Russia could not advance further. Dozens of armored vehicles, doubtless the armored reserve gathered for exploitation, have been observed destroyed in the small towns to the west. If this is the success Russia achieves when breakthrough aligns fairly well, what should we expect across the front?
The lines are by no means static. Russian advances have continued regardless - the pace is slow, but what else is new.
I did not imply that Russia was burning up manpower RATHER than Ukraine. Only that it is broadly known that relentless counterattacks are usually detrimental, especially when the enemy has local artillery superiority. If you are attacked, and you have strategic depth, then it is usually advisable to take the hit and let the enemy keep moving. Incremental gains are seldom important, as the Pro-Rus crowd has been shouting all year.

God fucking damn it.
This is in general terms correct, however Russian war casualty tracking (by Mediazona, a western funded anti-Putin regime outlet over the course of Ukraine's summer counter-offensive do not at all substantiate the idea that Russia was losing disproportionately large numbers of troops doing relentless counterattacks over the course of Ukraine's offensive (compared to the period before and after). This is probably related to the claim pro-Ukraine commentators made as it was clear that the counteroffensive was obviously being defeated - i.e. that the Russians were losing XYZ so many artillery pieces, this 'artillery genocide' was all part of the plan, and soon the Ukrainians would romp to victory off the back of that. It was narrative management for morale purposes, rather than being based on anything verifiably going on.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2024-04-11 01:23pm
That's his MO, with sources that are either located behind a paywall, do not support his position and in one case, actually undermines it. He once asked if he could be in the parting shots thread, I have the feeling he'll be the guest of honour. :mrgreen:
If he asks again about Parting Shots he'll get his wish. We are nothing if not accomodating. :mrgreen:
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Ralin »

Sounds like NATO and/or the US should step up and get directly involved in the fighting to prevent that.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Crazedwraith »

Nothings changed about the potential for nuclear escape so that's not likely to happen.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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Ralin wrote: 2024-04-13 10:35am Sounds like NATO and/or the US should step up and get directly involved in the fighting to prevent that.
With what army?

The UK admits they'd last 2 months at best
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/0 ... ar-russia/
There are doubts the UK has the resources for a long shooting war with Russia

Britain could not fight Russia for more than two months, the Deputy Chief of Defence Staff has admitted.

Lt Gen Sir Rob Magowan said the Armed Forces would have to manage the “operational risk” that came with not having the resources he would like in future wars.

It comes after Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, told MPs that he had lobbied Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt for more money to be spent on defence in the recent Budget, but failed to secure an increase.

Appearing before MPs at the Commons defence committee, the senior Royal Marines officer said: “We’ve been very clear that the amount of money we’re spending on munitions at the moment ... which is significant ... does not meet, in all areas, the threats that we face.

“We’ve been clear that we need to spend more money, above the programme of record, on what we call integrated air missile defence.”

Lt Gen Sir Rob Magowan, the Deputy Chief of Defence staff, insisted the UK was ready for war

When put to him by Mark Francois, the former Armed Forces minister, that the UK “couldn’t fight [Vladimir] Putin for more than a couple of months in a full-on shooting war because we don’t have the ammunition and the reserves of equipment to do it, that’s true, isn’t it?”, Sir Rob acknowledged that was true.
France is finito within a week
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/15 ... umiliation
With the war in Ukraine now reaching its third week, the prospect of the conflict spreading into mainland Europe has left nations in the region on high alert. For France, attempts at diplomacy failed prior to the Russian invasion of its southern neighbour. Yet, should the conflict reach French shores, and Mr Macron be forced to engage with Russia, one senior official claims ammunition would run out in three to four days.

The chairman of the Senate's Foreign Affairs, Defence and Armed Forces Committee, LR Senator Christian Cambon of Val-de-Marne, estimated this Tuesday the French army's ammunition reserves were so low, according to some of his sources, they could provide autonomy of "four days" at most.

Adding salt to the wound, Mr Cambon said: "I even think this information is optimistic compared to reality. The most obvious point is the ammunition."
The other nations in Europe are in no better shape, and none of them have any experience in fighting a modern war of attrition. They'll be ground down by the Russians just like they're doing with Ukrainian soldiers.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

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J wrote: 2024-04-13 12:03pm With what army?
The US Army, hopefully. We certainly spend enough on it.
Crazedwraith wrote: 2024-04-13 10:56am Nothings changed about the potential for nuclear escape so that's not likely to happen.
It's weird how everyone is very concerned about provoking Russia into nuking someone by resisting them too hard but no one in the Russian government seems too concerned about provoking anyone else into a nuclear response with their invasion and war crimes.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Crazedwraith »

Ralin wrote: 2024-04-13 01:39pm
Crazedwraith wrote: 2024-04-13 10:56am Nothings changed about the potential for nuclear escape so that's not likely to happen.
It's weird how everyone is very concerned about provoking Russia into nuking someone by resisting them too hard but no one in the Russian government seems too concerned about provoking anyone else into a nuclear response with their invasion and war crimes.
Yeah, i've been saying that from the start but it's nevertheless the apparent thinking of governments. Supplying Ukraine is apparently one thing (though the US is getting reluctant to even do that) NATO attacking with their own troops when no NATO country has been attacked is still seen as an escalation.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by J »

Ralin wrote: 2024-04-13 01:39pm
J wrote: 2024-04-13 12:03pm With what army?
The US Army, hopefully. We certainly spend enough on it.
And how exactly is the US army going to get to the Ukraine and support itself there? This is not Desert Storm where there's a safe location for NATO to assemble forces & supplies for months before starting hostilities, not to mention that sealift & transport capabilities are far worse now than they were 30 years ago. Keep in mind that it takes around 10-15 thousand tons of supplies EVERY DAY to keep the front lines supplied, which is in the same ballpark as the first few weeks of the D-Day landings.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

It's clear that as far as support for Ukraine is concerned, the USA is a lost cause. If the Democrats are smart, they'll spin the Republican refusal in their election campaign to portray them as being a bunch of Ukrainian-hating Russophiles. If the Republicans allow Ukraine to fall they should have to accommodate the lion's share of the resulting inevitable flood of very pissed-off Ukrainian refugees, and it'll be the millstone that will hang around the neck of every Republican presidential candidate for the next fifty years.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Gandalf »

J wrote: 2024-04-13 02:26pm
Ralin wrote: 2024-04-13 01:39pm
J wrote: 2024-04-13 12:03pm With what army?
The US Army, hopefully. We certainly spend enough on it.
And how exactly is the US army going to get to the Ukraine and support itself there? This is not Desert Storm where there's a safe location for NATO to assemble forces & supplies for months before starting hostilities, not to mention that sealift & transport capabilities are far worse now than they were 30 years ago. Keep in mind that it takes around 10-15 thousand tons of supplies EVERY DAY to keep the front lines supplied, which is in the same ballpark as the first few weeks of the D-Day landings.
Also, after the better part of two decades in the Middle East fighting for Halliburton, who wants to die for Ukraine?

That'll be a lot more bodies coming in from Dover.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by LadyTevar »

More of what should be a War Crime from Russia --

Russian 'double-tap' hitting civilians then rescuers with airstrikes
On the night of 3 April, a swarm of Russian drones attacked Kharkiv, in Ukraine's northeast.
The country's second-largest city has been targeted almost incessantly since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.
But this time was worse than usual, because, when rescue workers arrived at the scene, there was a second strike. Three of them were killed.

The following Friday, it happened again when Russian missiles hit Zaporizhzhia, a major city in Ukraine's southeast.
Rescuers and journalists rushed to the scene, and then two more missiles hit.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

LadyTevar wrote: 2024-04-14 10:49am More of what should be a War Crime from Russia --

Russian 'double-tap' hitting civilians then rescuers with airstrikes
On the night of 3 April, a swarm of Russian drones attacked Kharkiv, in Ukraine's northeast.
The country's second-largest city has been targeted almost incessantly since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.
But this time was worse than usual, because, when rescue workers arrived at the scene, there was a second strike. Three of them were killed.

The following Friday, it happened again when Russian missiles hit Zaporizhzhia, a major city in Ukraine's southeast.
Rescuers and journalists rushed to the scene, and then two more missiles hit.
It's the not the first time Russia has done this and it won't be the last.
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Vympel
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Vympel »

Ralin wrote: 2024-04-13 01:39pm The US Army, hopefully. We certainly spend enough on it.
The problems with this are many:

1. Risk of runaway nuclear escalation makes this a non-starter;
2. There is a stark divide in the US national security apparatus about whether opposing Russia is the priority or the real conflict is with China. US armed forces cannot afford to do both and recovery from any conflict will take years even if victorious;
3. Even if Russia was the priority the US military has denuded itself of vital arms supporting Ukraine. Most particularly in terms of artillery shells;
4. The expense of generating and moving a force to intervene in Ukraine is enormous; and
5. Would require European NATO allies to sign off on being exposed to attack / getting drawn in the war for Ukraine's benefit (since they'll be the logistical tail for any US force) and there is no political appetite for this. Also, see 1.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by madd0c0t0r2 »

Vympel wrote: 2024-04-14 10:01pm
Ralin wrote: 2024-04-13 01:39pm The US Army, hopefully. We certainly spend enough on it.
The problems with this are many:

1. Risk of runaway nuclear escalation makes this a non-starter;
2. There is a stark divide in the US national security apparatus about whether opposing Russia is the priority or the real conflict is with China. US armed forces cannot afford to do both and recovery from any conflict will take years even if victorious;
3. Even if Russia was the priority the US military has denuded itself of vital arms supporting Ukraine. Most particularly in terms of artillery shells;
4. The expense of generating and moving a force to intervene in Ukraine is enormous; and
5. Would require European NATO allies to sign off on being exposed to attack / getting drawn in the war for Ukraine's benefit (since they'll be the logistical tail for any US force) and there is no political appetite for this. Also, see 1.
I'd consider it just as unlikely, expensive and wasteful as Russia invading Ukraine.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Vympel »

madd0c0t0r2 wrote: 2024-04-15 03:37am I'd consider it just as unlikely, expensive and wasteful as Russia invading Ukraine.
Well that'd be an absurd thing to equate, chiefly because Ukraine doens't have nuclear weapons and Russia does, and Ukraine is on Russia's border and not halfway across the world, making Russian intervention far easier and less risky for them than US intervention in favour of Ukraine.

Ukraine matters more to Russia than it does to the US, this is obviously, self-evidently true and the progress and conduct of this war shows that over and over and over. The US is not willing to incur the enormous costs and risks of engaging Russian forces directly over whose flag flies over which part of Ukraine.

Anyway:

Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries deepen tensions with the US

Article is behind a paywall, but tweet of the author:

https://twitter.com/john_hudson/status/ ... 0504889477
New: When Kamala Harris met privately with Volodymyr Zelensky in February, she told him something he didn’t want to hear: Refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, a tactic U.S. officials believed would raise global energy prices and invite more aggressive Russian retaliation inside Ukraine.

The request irritated Zelensky and his top aides, who view Kyiv’s string of drone strikes on Russian energy facilities as a rare bright spot in a grinding war of attrition. Zelensky brushed off the recommendation, but in subsequent weeks, Washington reinforced the warning in multiple conversations with Kyiv, including by Jake Sullivan, who traveled to Ukraine’s capital in March.

Instead of acquiescing to the U.S. requests, Ukraine doubled down on the strategy, striking a range of Russian facilities, including an April 2 attack on Russia’s third-largest refinery 800 miles from the font.

The incidents have exacerbated tensions in an already-strained relationship and come as Biden ramps up his reelection campaign amid a six-month high in oil prices.

Defenders of Ukraine’s strategy accuse the White House of prioritizing domestic politics over Kyiv’s military goals. U.S. officials say the rationale behind their warnings is more nuanced than critics suggest, noting that Moscow’s counterattack has hurt Ukraine more than the refinery attacks hurt Russia.

More details here:

https://t.co/0sXsE8oUcv
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

As if Moscow was waiting for Ukraine to give them an excuse to hit a power station, they've been trying that shit since day 1. :kill: America bitching to Ukraine would be hilarious if it wasn't life-or-death, what are they going to do, stop supplying Ukraine? Oh, wait... :wanker:
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Ralin »

I have to figure that the Russian government and military is doing what they collectively believe is the most effective way to either conquer or subjugate Ukraine. If they weren't retaliating 'more aggressively' than they were after these strikes they presumably either couldn't or had decided that doing so was suboptimal to their overall goals. Which implies that any counterattack is 1) basically what they would have done anyway or 2) is less effective in achieving their overall goals and being done to look strong/vent the pique of whoever ordered it.

Am I missing something?
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by aerius »

Scranton ammo plant on fire
https://fox56.com/news/local/crews-resp ... n-scranton
SCRANTON, LACKAWANNA CO. (WOLF) — Firefighters responded to an ammunition manufacturer in Scranton Monday afternoon.

Crews from the Scranton Fire Department responded to General Dynamics along Cedar Ave. for a reported structure fire.

The fire inspector told FOX56 that a fire was reported on the production line.
Shell shortage is only gonna get worse for NATO and the Ukraine.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

Post by Broomstick »

EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2024-04-15 09:00am America bitching to Ukraine would be hilarious if it wasn't life-or-death, what are they going to do, stop supplying Ukraine?
Whether or not anyone likes it American elections are decided by things like oil prices. If they get to high it will favor Trump winning. Trump as PotUS will not be a good thing for Ukraine, far worse than Biden.

I'm not happy about any of this either.
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