Post
by Elheru Aran » 2018-03-29 07:04pm
Considering they've already taken shots at recreating deceased actors via CGI (Tarkin in Rogue One, young Leia in same), I suspect people will become more aware of such fakery via Hollywood before it starts becoming a big thing for "IRL". Part of the problem is that unless you're trying to exploit low-quality film, making really realistic CGI duplicates is *hard* (with home/OTC office-quality computers and average hardware, anyway). Much easier to fake something that someone's holding, insert the wrong audio into a bit of video, stuff like that.
As far as Hollywood goes, the success of Rogue One *despite* the slight uncanny-valley effect the CGI characters had suggests they will almost certainly explore using the technology further. There are some failures, of course-- the terrible moustache-removal on Henry Cavill in Justice League being an excellent example-- but overall it's only getting better and cheaper. Even 'low budget' SF shows these days can have starships and graphics far better than what they had in say the early 2000s. Recreating objects and vehicles is far easier than recreating organics and people, granted, but it's still being done. There's pages on Deviantart with pictures of people that you could swear were taken with a camera. Fewer than the ones that you can tell weren't, of course, but the fact is it's happening.
Of course in a decade, probably far less, we'll start seeing Hollywood-quality fake people coming from home computers, and if you run it through some kind of filter that simulates, say, cellphone video in a low-light setting, it would be pretty easy to fake for example a sexual encounter (because I'm pretty sure the majority of the US population isn't going to give up being slightly prudish about sex by then) or some kind of illicit dealing. There is already plenty of graphic artistry software out there, including software for making your own animated films. Putting realistic CGI into live action is a different proposition, and would require some more specialized effects suites and more expensive hardware, but in a decade or less... sure.
A few more years will probably be required for the general public to start regarding all media as slightly suspect unless verified with raw data, though... I wouldn't be surprised at all if for example someone posts a "cellphone video" of an opposition male candidate having his way with another man, or worse, a child, within a few years or less of the present, and though completely fake, it does serious damage to their campaign.
It's a strange world. Let's keep it that way.