Game of Thrones Season 4 Discussion (TV Spoilers Only)

[Pelranius]

Going back to the whole Braavos business, am I missing something?

I recalled that Davos had to sneak around (with Shireen's help) to ask the Iron Bank for money on Stannis's behalf, and judging from the sailing to Bravos, Stannis apparently seems perfectly happy to give retroactive approval*. Now, Davos is Stannis's Hand and have the authority to initiate such a move without consulting Stannis beforehand (that's the impression I got from episode four), but then why not write the letter with Stannis instead of going to a little girl?

*Though given the look that Stannis was giving Davos after the talking down by Tycho Nestoris, it's possible that Stannis's discovery of the whole Bravos loan application happened off screen.

[Ziggy Stardust]

I'm a little confused as to what you are confused about.

In one episode, we see Davos come up with the idea to contact the Iron Bank. In the next episode, we see that he and Stannis are visiting the Bank. Stannis does not show any overt signs of disapproval of the plan at any point. The only time he looks sour (though, to be fair, he ALWAYS looks sour) is after the Bank humiliates him and initially declines the loan, which is a perfectly reasonable reaction.

I think it is pretty obvious that the chain of events is 1) Davos/Shireen write letter, 2) Davos goes to Stannis, Stannis approves plan 3) Raven sent to Bank 4) Bank sends raven back and invites them to Braavos 5) They go to Braavos. Or at least something similar. I'm not sure where you are getting the idea that Davos had to "sneak around"; the episode didn't imply anything of the sort. It's just that he came up with the idea for the letter while he was with Shireen. I guess you can make the case that he should have asked Stannis before writing the letter (from a RL perspective, it is just because the decision carries more dramatic and thematic weight with respect to his character arc if he comes up with it while talking with Shireen), but there is no evidence that he actually sent the letter without talking to Stannis.

[Scrib]

Kinda strange how Ser Alliser is forced to send Jon away because he's so popular and when he comes back with his mission an unqualified success Thorne's clearly obstinate behavior is made to seem acceptable by the other Nightswatchmen. Why would they laugh when Jon is their main expert on wildlings and the most effective person as things stand. Why on Earth would he be called a coward? It seems to completely contradict the mood of the last meeting.

I'm a little confused as to what you are confused about.

The real confusing bit is why the Iron Bank would ever make that deal. Davos' logic is kinda absurd. What sort of bank actively helps along a default on the off chance that Stannis could win with the right number of sellswords when the might of an entire nation wasn't enough? As Ned Stark said:'if gold won wars instead of money Tywin Lannister would be king". True, it matters, but Stannis is working with a huge disadvantage here, gold or no gold.

The very thing that makes them flip-their supposed risk-averse nature- is what would prevent them from doing so in the first place. It's a paradox.

Also: Littlefinger is a little shit. Did he need to be extra spiteful? But I suppose he grew to despise her. I certainly did and she was in like five episodes, not two decades of my life.

[SCRawl]

The real confusing bit is why the Iron Bank would ever make that deal. Davos' logic is kinda absurd. What sort of bank actively helps along a default on the off chance that Stannis could win with the right number of sellswords when the might of an entire nation wasn't enough? As Ned Stark said:'if gold won wars instead of money Tywin Lannister would be king". True, it matters, but Stannis is working with a huge disadvantage here, gold or no gold.

The very thing that makes them flip-their supposed risk-averse nature- is what would prevent them from doing so in the first place. It's a paradox.

If the Iron Bank makes a small loan to Stannis and he wins, Stannis will still be on the hook for all of the crown's loans prior to the new administration's takeover, and Stannis might be in a better position to start paying them back. I think that there's some bet-hedging going on.

Also: Littlefinger is a little shit. Did he need to be extra spiteful? But I suppose he grew to despise her. I certainly did and she was in like five episodes, not two decades of my life.

You object to his parting words to Lysa? What's the harm with telling her the truth just before she makes an up-close observation of potential energy being converted into kinetic energy?

[Scrib]

The real confusing bit is why the Iron Bank would ever make that deal. Davos' logic is kinda absurd. What sort of bank actively helps along a default on the off chance that Stannis could win with the right number of sellswords when the might of an entire nation wasn't enough? As Ned Stark said:'if gold won wars instead of money Tywin Lannister would be king". True, it matters, but Stannis is working with a huge disadvantage here, gold or no gold.

The very thing that makes them flip-their supposed risk-averse nature- is what would prevent them from doing so in the first place. It's a paradox.

If the Iron Bank makes a small loan to Stannis and he wins, Stannis will still be on the hook for all of the crown's loans prior to the new administration's takeover, and Stannis might be in a better position to start paying them back. I think that there's some bet-hedging going on.

Also: Littlefinger is a little shit. Did he need to be extra spiteful? But I suppose he grew to despise her. I certainly did and she was in like five episodes, not two decades of my life.

You object to his parting words to Lysa? What's the harm with telling her the truth just before she makes an up-close observation of potential energy being converted into kinetic energy?

A small loan? Stannis has 4000 men. What did the Tyrells have? What did the Tyrells and the Lannisters have? What do the Boltons have? Stannis needs a fucking ginormous loan. And they're probably going to have to prop him up during his realm even if he can magically pull out a win (which he most likely can't) years down the line. He's a devil-worshipping, people burning heathen as far as everyone is concerned. He has no male heir, no strong relatives (he plans to kill them all) and he is rumoured to be the puppet of another heathen. What exactly makes this a hedged bet?

The Iron Bank is essentially acting against their interests here. They're essentially telling everyone else that expediency counts above sense and contract. And they're telling everyone that they have no sensible measure of expediency. There was no indication that Tywin wouldn't pay or was planning on publicly defaulting, they just tore up their contract because Davos made a good speech. A bank concerned with maintaining it's reputation as an eternal institution that punished defaulters wouldn't do this.

As for LF: yeah, kinda. I mean, you can cause untold misery in your quest for power but that seems a bit...mean-spirited no?

[Vympel]

Man, so much good shit in that episode.

- Fancy dress Bronn! Lollys Stokeworth!

- HOT PIE!!!

- The scene between Tyrion and Oberyn was one of those rare scenes where they improved on the books - its so much more effective for Oberyn to tell that story there, as opposed to when they first met on the ride in to King's Landing

- I wonder if Sansa picked up on the significance of what Lysa was saying, moments before her death? I hope so. What do we do to those who hurt the one's we love?

- Gregor sounds like his Season 2 iteration, which is good. He does look a bit young, though.

- I still want the show to buck the books and have Alliser Thorne and Jon Snow become BFFs

- SEASON ONE CALLBACK: We've seen Othell Yarwyck before - he's the Night's Watch officer (misidentified as Bowen Marsh on the GOT wiki) who watches Sam and Jon take their vows

- LOL @ Arya stabbing Rorge. Suck shit.

A small loan? Stannis has 4000 men. What did the Tyrells have? What did the Tyrells and the Lannisters have? What do the Boltons have? Stannis needs a fucking ginormous loan. And they're probably going to have to prop him up during his realm even if he can magically pull out a win (which he most likely can't) years down the line. He's a devil-worshipping, people burning heathen as far as everyone is concerned. He has no male heir, no strong relatives (he plans to kill them all) and he is rumoured to be the puppet of another heathen. What exactly makes this a hedged bet?

The Iron Bank is essentially acting against their interests here. They're essentially telling everyone else that expediency counts above sense and contract. And they're telling everyone that they have no sensible measure of expediency. There was no indication that Tywin wouldn't pay or was planning on publicly defaulting, they just tore up their contract because Davos made a good speech. A bank concerned with maintaining it's reputation as an eternal institution that punished defaulters wouldn't do this.

They didn't tear up any contract at all. They are hedging their bets. Also, you're imputing terms into a loan agreement between the Iron Throne and the Iron Bank that is not in evidence at all. There's no indication that the Iron Bank doesn't have the discretion to lend to whomever they want, for any reason they want.

Bryan Cogman interview

Now, there’s one big question from the Braavos thing… How are we to take it? Is the Iron Bank abandoning the Lannisters and throwing all their support to Stannis, or is it more of a hedge, a bridge loan to keep him in play while they wait to see what happens with the Lannisters?

BC: I think more the latter. The idea as I see it is—here’s some money. There’s more where that came from if we see results.

Davos is a persuasive guy, but I think the Iron Bank wants to look at the books in a few months and see what tale the numbers tell.

BC: Exactly.

[Elfdart]

The real crux of the matter is that if there's no credible threat to overthrow the Lannister-Tyrell faction then Tywin would be free to tell the Iron Bank to piss off and renege on the loans. What could the Bank do? Back the Wildlings? Back Danerys? Even if those plays worked it's not like they'd be willing to pay off the loans either. Backing Stannis is the Iron Bank's only realistic chance to recover the money they loaned out to Robert/Joffrey/Tywin/Littlefinger.

[TheFeniX]

Maybe I missed something, but is there a reason Tywin never remarried? Even if I bought he loved his wife so much and maybe feels he's cursed or something like that what with the "Imp" son and all, but he doesn't seem the sort to gamble on Jamie as his sole worthy heir. Charles Dance doesn't strike me as to old to father children and finding a new wife wouldn't exactly be an issue. 20 years ago would have been an even better time to start.

Also, I get that Varys might have enough spies everywhere to find out The Hound is out murdering Lannister men before a Lannister does, but no one else thinks it's strange he's traveling with a young girl? A girl who also killed a man with a fancy little sword, or did Varys leave that out specifically?

And just how fast does word travel Westeros? Sure, they have ravens that seem to be magic, but Sandor and Arya don't seem to be moving at a glacial pace and we're to assume dumb-as-rocks mercencaries running around murdering random people happen to not only stumble across them, but also know about the bounty?

If word travels this fast, why are they talking about peace when thousands of wildlings are marching South to take on 500 Night's watchmen? And why are the old dudes leading the Night's Watch playing the tired and cliche' "No problems here young Snow, we'll hold the wall" shtick? It just seems dumb to worry about John Snow being popular when even a moron could realize they're all about to die. They don't even have enough men to send out to protect the surrounding towns from what wildlings already made it over the wall, but closing the tunnel is completely out of the question?

I'm liking this season so far, but the stupidity in some areas in distracting me from the quality of other areas like Tyrion and Littlefinger's escapades.

[TheHammer]

Maybe I missed something, but is there a reason Tywin never remarried? Even if I bought he loved his wife so much and maybe feels he's cursed or something like that what with the "Imp" son and all, but he doesn't seem the sort to gamble on Jamie as his sole worthy heir. Charles Dance doesn't strike me as to old to father children and finding a new wife wouldn't exactly be an issue. 20 years ago would have been an even better time to start.

That's a good question. Perhaps he's infertile for some reason.

Also, I get that Varys might have enough spies everywhere to find out The Hound is out murdering Lannister men before a Lannister does, but no one else thinks it's strange he's traveling with a young girl? A girl who also killed a man with a fancy little sword, or did Varys leave that out specifically?

Who knows if anyone other than the hound actually witnessed Arya doing any killing. The Hound did most of the asskicking, Arya mostly hid before the coup de grace on poliver and unnamed lanister man - both having already been flattened by the hound. If the Innkeeper was hiding upstairs when the hound started a fight, came down and found five dead men none of whom were the hound, it would be likely to conclude it was the hound who did it.

Besides, even if they had mentioned a girl I can't see why Varys would mention it without some other accompanying info. Arya has been presumed dead for quite some time, perhaps even longer than Ned Stark. If a girl were identified with the hound, the most logical conclusion to draw would be that she was the hounds play thing of the moment. There is certainly no reason for him to think its Arya. It's possible Varys knows and is keeping it to himself for whatever reason. Its also possible he simply has no clue as to her importance.

And just how fast does word travel Westeros? Sure, they have ravens that seem to be magic, but Sandor and Arya don't seem to be moving at a glacial pace and we're to assume dumb-as-rocks mercencaries running around murdering random people happen to not only stumble across them, but also know about the bounty?

They do have a rough idea where the hound is. Sending ravens out to this area could get word rather quickly. Spreading the word to soldiers and mercenaries quickly was certainly by design if you wanted them to track the hound down while he was still in the area.

I think we also sometimes lose our perception of time watchin the show, which is why you need to pay attention to various clues to indicate days/weeks/months passing. Remember, they decided the bounty the morning of of the trial. Once Tyrion demanded trial by combat, enough time had passed that Cersei had decided on Ser Gregor as champion, sent for him, and he had arrived and been there long enough to begin "training" by slaughtering prisoners/peasants. Further, we see at the start of the episode Tyrion asking Jamie to find Bronn and send him there. When Bronn finally does show up, Tyrion laments that he had sent for Bronn "Days ago".

If word travels this fast, why are they talking about peace when thousands of wildlings are marching South to take on 500 Night's watchmen? And why are the old dudes leading the Night's Watch playing the tired and cliche' "No problems here young Snow, we'll hold the wall" shtick? It just seems dumb to worry about John Snow being popular when even a moron could realize they're all about to die. They don't even have enough men to send out to protect the surrounding towns from what wildlings already made it over the wall, but closing the tunnel is completely out of the question?

Ser Allister clearly doesn't respect the threat of wildlings. He presumes Jon is at best exaggerating if not outright lying. He's been in the nightswatch a long time, and "wild eyed tales" (from his perspective) from a "steward" aren't going to rattle him. Sure he might believe the idea that an attack is coming, but feels the defenses will hold. By undermining Jon now, he is hoping to ensure that once that attack is beaten back he will remain as nightswatch commander.

As for the south, the Nights watch had already called for reinforcements, but its also clear that No one south of the wall truly respects the wildling, or "White walker" threat either. Either that, or they presume that even if the wall is breached, the North will be able to hold out until additional forces from the south arrive - remember this isn't the first attempt wildlings have made an attack on the south, as Jon noted to Ingrid last season they were beaten back every time. From Tywin's perspective, there are more immediate threats from Stannis, The Greyjoys, and Dannaeris to be concerned with.

[TheFeniX]

Who knows if anyone other than the hound actually witnessed Arya doing any killing. The Hound did most of the asskicking, Arya mostly hid before the coup de grace on poliver and unnamed lanister man - both having already been flattened by the hound. If the Innkeeper was hiding upstairs when the hound started a fight, came down and found five dead men none of whom were the hound, it would be likely to conclude it was the hound who did it.

Someone had to have heard Arya's monologue if they were hiding in the building. The only other option is that the owner fled immediately and informed someone bad shit was going down and they showed up later and just found the bodies and no Hound, so they did the math. It still bears mentioning since The Hound doesn't seem like the kind of man to keep a young girl around at all, although that would explain why Varys doesn't mention her.

They do have a rough idea where the hound is. Sending ravens out to this area could get word rather quickly. Spreading the word to soldiers and mercenaries quickly was certainly by design if you wanted them to track the hound down while he was still in the area.

Isn't the country-side supposed to be in shambles? The way I figure it, only the towns nearest the major population centers aren't getting ravaged by pillagers. How conducive is this to expedient bird travel? Or riders?

At what point do we assume that two travelers on horseback, likely moving as fast as possible, without killing their horses, so they don't starve to death, manage to outrun the slow Carrier Pigeon over IP communication system of Westeros? Sure, they can get messages to certain towns, but exactly how long does it take that information to disseminate into the general murdering population? And how long till they hear back "Shit, they made it to Riverrun."

The whole thing just doesn't fit for me.

Ser Allister clearly doesn't respect the threat of wildlings.

Yet he won't send any men to deal with the flanking wildlings current murdering everyone? He dismissed the reports of all the other Night's Watch who came back from the wall? Sure, only Jon knows how many wildlings there actually are, but they just lost a shitload of men to wildlings/walkers and the Watch is in the worst shape it's likely ever been in. At some point, Allister crossed over into dumbass mode.

Hell, only Stannis has seemed to be given an word about the current state of the Night's Watch, and it was enough for him to put off killing his Hand because shit's about to hit the fan. Then again, he does have Fire Woman giving him the inside scoop. Mormont's dead (done in by his own men) and we're down to 500 Night's Watch? At the least, someone in King's Landing should possibly get Bolton to send a few men to check up on the watch, but all we get is the guy who maimed the greatest warrior in Westeros being killed by the dumbest man in it.

[TheHammer]

Someone had to have heard Arya's monologue if they were hiding in the building. The only other option is that the owner fled immediately and informed someone bad shit was going down and they showed up later and just found the bodies and no Hound, so they did the math. It still bears mentioning since The Hound doesn't seem like the kind of man to keep a young girl around at all, although that would explain why Varys doesn't mention her.

If you're upstairs hiding you might very well not have heard it. Even if you could make out "talking" doesn't mean you could understand a word of it. She didn't exactly shout her monologue after all. As you noted, since the hound wouldn't be likely to keep a female traveling companion, its unlikely she was regarded as anything important.

Isn't the country-side supposed to be in shambles? The way I figure it, only the towns nearest the major population centers aren't getting ravaged by pillagers. How conducive is this to expedient bird travel? Or riders?

At what point do we assume that two travelers on horseback, likely moving as fast as possible, without killing their horses, so they don't starve to death, manage to outrun the slow Carrier Pigeon over IP communication system of Westeros? Sure, they can get messages to certain towns, but exactly how long does it take that information to disseminate into the general murdering population? And how long till they hear back "Shit, they made it to Riverrun."

The whole thing just doesn't fit for me.

It seems to me most official messages are sent via raven. Raven communication, especially from Kings Landing to the Riverlands/TheVale area should be rather quick IMO. Law and order has clearly broken down in the country side, but I doubt that has much effect on ravens. If you have a rough idea of where the hound is, you don't send a raven to one location, you blanket the area and hope someone spots him and manages to bring him down. Ravens are the Westeros equivalent to a two way radio, and to put a new spin on an old phrase, you might outrun a horse, but you won't outrun a raven.

Remember, Varys felt that 10 silver (somethings) would be adequate to make your "average soldier" stupid enough to try and take down the hound, and Tywin is offering 100. Surely the size of the reward would contribute to it making the rounds rather quickly.

Yet he won't send any men to deal with the flanking wildlings current murdering everyone? He dismissed the reports of all the other Night's Watch who came back from the wall? Sure, only Jon knows how many wildlings there actually are, but they just lost a shitload of men to wildlings/walkers and the Watch is in the worst shape it's likely ever been in. At some point, Allister crossed over into dumbass mode.

His job is to hold the wall its not to play policeman, and he's short on recruits. Wildlings raiding the villages south of the wall should be dealt with by the Warden of the North. And Allister has always been kind of a dumbass. He's arrogant and thinks he knows more than Jon, therefore he's concluded that whatever Jon says comes from a place of naivety and inexperience. He doesn't strike me as the type who would join the Nights watch out of a sense of duty. Being a "Ser" means he does hold a title of nobility. Most likely he fucked up pretty badly at some point in his life to have ended up there in the first place.

Hell, only Stannis has seemed to be given an word about the current state of the Night's Watch, and it was enough for him to put off killing his Hand because shit's about to hit the fan. Then again, he does have Fire Woman giving him the inside scoop. Mormont's dead (done in by his own men) and we're down to 500 Night's Watch? At the least, someone in King's Landing should possibly get Bolton to send a few men to check up on the watch, but all we get is the guy who maimed the greatest warrior in Westeros being killed by the dumbest man in it.

The ravens were sent everywhere, but again if anyone ever considered anything north of the wall a true threat, they'd have a better force stationed at Castle black in the first place to supplement the Nights watch. Stannis only cares about the wall because Melisandre cares about the wall. Everyone else has their eyes glued on more immediate threats. Bolton is dealing with Ironborn in the North, Walder Frey is doing Walder Frey things in the riverlands, and quite frankly probably feels nigh invulnerable with his fortress at the twins. Tywin has his family squabble to deal with, with the looming threat of a Targaryen with three dragons on the horizon all while countering the political machinations of the Tyrels and Martels, his allies by neccessity.

[Scrib]

They didn't tear up any contract at all. They are hedging their bets. Also, you're imputing terms into a loan agreement between the Iron Throne and the Iron Bank that is not in evidence at all. There's no indication that the Iron Bank doesn't have the discretion to lend to whomever they want, for any reason they want.

It's not written into the contract (as far as I know) any more than there are concrete legal stipulations in any social contract. "No supporting the threats to my throne when we have a business relationship" seems a pretty obvious and sensible sort of social contract no? Don't send for people unless they come for you.

In theory anyone can do anything. Sensible adults know better. There's pretty much no way that is not seen as the incredibly hostile action it is.

The real crux of the matter is that if there's no credible threat to overthrow the Lannister-Tyrell faction then Tywin would be free to tell the Iron Bank to piss off and renege on the loans.

The real crux of the matter is that only the Lannister-Tyrells can pay the loans and they're not currently desperate enough to renege. And they won't-unless someone does something stupid like help sink them into another years long war with an implacable bastard with half the country burnt and winter coming.

- The scene between Tyrion and Oberyn was one of those rare scenes where they improved on the books - its so much more effective for Oberyn to tell that story there, as opposed to when they first met on the ride in to King's Landing

Can I just take a moment to talk about how perfect this Oberyn is? I mean, the guy was apparently a dark horse fan favorite in the books and Pascal really makes it work in every fucking scene, from the violence, to the anger to the comedy. Dude is a legit joy to watch.

I'd honestly rate Oberyn as my favorite person to watch on the show, even though Dinklage is getting a lot of praise for his confession.

[TheHammer]

Can I just take a moment to talk about how perfect this Oberyn is? I mean, the guy was apparently a dark horse fan favorite in the books and Pascal really makes it work in every fucking scene, from the violence, to the anger to the comedy. Dude is a legit joy to watch.

I'd honestly rate Oberyn as my favorite person to watch on the show, even though Dinklage is getting a lot of praise for his confession.

Hopefully they will continue to elaborate on the special position Dorn holds among the seven kingdoms. After all, they keep referring to Oberyn as "Prince", a title not bestowed on any other house outside the royal family.

[Vympel]

It's not written into the contract (as far as I know) any more than there are concrete legal stipulations in any social contract. "No supporting the threats to my throne when we have a business relationship" seems a pretty obvious and sensible sort of social contract no? Don't send for people unless they come for you.

A loan isn't a social contract, its a purely legal one. The question is purely one of consideration - what is the consideration has the Iron Throne / the Lannisters offered to the Iron Bank to induce the Iron Bank to lend to them? The promise of repayment with interest. What is the consideration the Iron Throne/ the Lannisters have offered to induce the Iron Bank to forego making other loans not in the Iron Throne's interests? None.

In theory anyone can do anything. Sensible adults know better. There's pretty much no way that is not seen as the incredibly hostile action it is.

Why would the Iron Bank care? The Iron Bank has all the leverage. The Iron Throne has none. What's it going to do? Not pay?

The real crux of the matter is that only the Lannister-Tyrells can pay the loans and they're not currently desperate enough to renege. And they won't-unless someone does something stupid like help sink them into another years long war with an implacable bastard with half the country burnt and winter coming.

They can't renege. The Lannister-Tyrells don't have the money to just fund the Iron Throne without the Iron Bank - not to mention all the other things the Iron Bank can do apart from throwing all their support behind Stannis. "The Iron Bank Will Have Its Due" is not just a saying.

Can I just take a moment to talk about how perfect this Oberyn is? I mean, the guy was apparently a dark horse fan favorite in the books and Pascal really makes it work in every fucking scene, from the violence, to the anger to the comedy. Dude is a legit joy to watch.

That guy should get a shitload more work now.

[Ralin]

I AM A FUCKING IDIOT.

HOW LARGE OF AN IDIOT YOU ASK?

I USUALLY PISS MY PANTS EACH MORNING BECAUSE I FORGOT TO TAKE THEM OFF WHILE ON THE TOILET.

[Scrib]

Uh...dude? What the fuck? Wrong thread...

[Scrib]

It's not written into the contract (as far as I know) any more than there are concrete legal stipulations in any social contract. "No supporting the threats to my throne when we have a business relationship" seems a pretty obvious and sensible sort of social contract no? Don't send for people unless they come for you.

A loan isn't a social contract, its a purely legal one. The question is purely one of consideration - what is the consideration has the Iron Throne / the Lannisters offered to the Iron Bank to induce the Iron Bank to lend to them? The promise of repayment with interest. What is the consideration the Iron Throne/ the Lannisters have offered to induce the Iron Bank to forego making other loans not in the Iron Throne's interests? None.

In theory anyone can do anything. Sensible adults know better. There's pretty much no way that is not seen as the incredibly hostile action it is.

Why would the Iron Bank care? The Iron Bank has all the leverage. The Iron Throne has none. What's it going to do? Not pay?

The real crux of the matter is that only the Lannister-Tyrells can pay the loans and they're not currently desperate enough to renege. And they won't-unless someone does something stupid like help sink them into another years long war with an implacable bastard with half the country burnt and winter coming.

They can't renege. The Lannister-Tyrells don't have the money to just fund the Iron Throne without the Iron Bank - not to mention all the other things the Iron Bank can do apart from throwing all their support behind Stannis. "The Iron Bank Will Have Its Due" is not just a saying.

Just to be clear: your claim is that the Tyrells and Lannisters-who are infinitely better placed to rule the kingdoms- are not going to renege and that this is a concrete political fact. You really think that this works in your favor?

As for the loan not being a social contract: all transactions are counted. Or does the Iron Bank go to the courts in Westeros to punish defaulters?Consideration quickly becomes SOP when the incentives line up. There is a way of dealing with loanees. For obvious reasons:"we're just gonna support rebels lol" isn't a particularly strong case. The incentives seem pretty clear here: causing a war might cause a default. The Iron Throne might default on purpose or be forced to default and everyone who hears about it will know why. For an organization said to be conservative and interested in safeguarding its wealth it's pretty stupid.

[SCRawl]

I have to wonder why the Iron Bank would loan money to the Iron Throne in the first place. I get that there's interest to be made, but if the Iron Throne decides to default, what's to be done? They could raise an army of sellswords easily enough, but that's an incredibly expensive business. They could hire the world's best assassins to pick off whomever sits on the Iron Throne, and keep doing it until they start to cough up the gold, but that seems kind of ugly too, ignoring the costs. Trade embargoes seem like they would be toothless, as Westeros seems to be more or less self-contained. I thought about suggesting appealing to the courts, and then I remembered that there aren't any.

If there are any other "incentives" the Iron Bank has at its disposal, they have not occurred to me. So if they believe that the Iron Throne isn't in any mood to pay them in the next, say, fifty years, what's their next best play? If Daenerys takes over I don't see her having any reason to pay the usurper's debts. Tywin's successor (when the one universal truth of this world (valar morghulis) is finally realized) won't be nearly as effective, and even his immediate leadership won't be very useful for turning a surplus, as winter is upon the continent.

So, yes, the Lannisters/Tyrells are well placed to rule the kingdoms, but they're in no danger of turning a surplus and thus being able (even if they are inclined) to start paying back the bank. Stannis and his armies might represent their best case for getting paid back, ever, and short of taking over Westeros themselves it might be the only way that ever happens.

[TheHammer]

I have to wonder why the Iron Bank would loan money to the Iron Throne in the first place. I get that there's interest to be made, but if the Iron Throne decides to default, what's to be done? They could raise an army of sellswords easily enough, but that's an incredibly expensive business. They could hire the world's best assassins to pick off whomever sits on the Iron Throne, and keep doing it until they start to cough up the gold, but that seems kind of ugly too, ignoring the costs. Trade embargoes seem like they would be toothless, as Westeros seems to be more or less self-contained. I thought about suggesting appealing to the courts, and then I remembered that there aren't any.

If there are any other "incentives" the Iron Bank has at its disposal, they have not occurred to me. So if they believe that the Iron Throne isn't in any mood to pay them in the next, say, fifty years, what's their next best play? If Daenerys takes over I don't see her having any reason to pay the usurper's debts. Tywin's successor (when the one universal truth of this world (valar morghulis) is finally realized) won't be nearly as effective, and even his immediate leadership won't be very useful for turning a surplus, as winter is upon the continent.

So, yes, the Lannisters/Tyrells are well placed to rule the kingdoms, but they're in no danger of turning a surplus and thus being able (even if they are inclined) to start paying back the bank. Stannis and his armies might represent their best case for getting paid back, ever, and short of taking over Westeros themselves it might be the only way that ever happens.

Considering the kingdoms had been ruled under the Targaryens for 300 years, and then by Robert for 17 years in a relatively stable fashion, they likely have had a long and profitable business relationship with "The Iron Throne". Sure they could avoid the whole thing entirely, but that would also be a big customer they'd lose.

Its likely their contingency plan is exactly what they are doing here. They don't hire an army of sellswords themselves, they back a powerful challenger with the understanding that if victorious they will be responsible for the debts of the crown. Stannis might not appear powerful now, but I believe this bet is hedged against the prospect that once Tywin dies off, many lords might flock to Stannis. Giving him a small loan in the interim provides them with insurance should he take the throne.

[Scrib]

Well, I assume that it's because the Iron Throne generally isn't insane. It's large and stable and will try to pay its loans so it can get new loans or it can pay the interest on loans off easily enough and probably wouldn't dissolve that fast.

Then there were Robert and LF's shenanigans, they probably got to loan the money out "cheap" so to speak, with a lot of interest. Without Robert going crazy the crown would never have been in a "default" position, they would simply have paid it off. But Robert being an asshole +every other king being a violent asshole created a situation where default was possible for the first time in a while.

As for what they can do...Faceless Men? This is a magical world, you're never as safe as you would like to think that you are. There are always wild cards. Of course, the Iron Thrones can also wage a war of assassination but, depending on the organization of the banks a feudal lord would probably suffer more from assassinations than a bank would,especially with magic assassins that are almost always successful.

Imagine that situation going on for years and years, no one knowing when they'd bite it...No one wants to live like that.

Also: how is Stannis best placed? Stannis probably won't win. The Lannisters may have lost their mines but they loaned out a lot oft he money and the Tyrells are rich. The Tyrells, you know...the ones that despise Stannis for both recent and historical reasons. The two families aren't going to play well, that's part of the reason they rebelled in the first place. Unfortunately for Stannis they have a nice huge army that is relatively unscathed.

All they're going to do by trying to place Stannis on the throne is to make the land poorer.

And can we go back to the obvious fact that no one, absolutely NO ONE has given the slightest indication that they have an interest in defaulting. Goddamn.

many lords might flock to Stannis

You mean the same lords that had a chance when Robb was distracting Tywin up north after whipping his ass and capturing Jaime and they didn't? It's been established that no one likes Stannis, even before he became the sort of man that burned others alive for keeping their religion (the show seriously did a fucking number on Stannis with that one I have to say completely unnecessary) .

The lords chose the Tyrells and/or the Crown before and they'll do it again.

[SCRawl]

The lords won't flock to Stannis' banner. They don't like him, and they know that he would tax the living shit out of them, because he would have to in order to pay off the loans he's already got. If Stannis were to take the Iron Throne, he would need to do so the hard way.

And can we go back to the obvious fact that no one, absolutely NO ONE has given the slightest indication that they have an interest in defaulting. Goddamn.

No one has shown any indications of paying back the bank, either. At what point does not paying anyone back become defaulting? And do they really want to wait until it's time to repo their Camaro (or the Westerosi equivalent)?

[TheHammer]

Well, I assume that it's because the Iron Throne generally isn't insane. It's large and stable and will try to pay its loans so it can get new loans or it can pay the interest on loans off easily enough and probably wouldn't dissolve that fast.

Then there were Robert and LF's shenanigans, they probably got to loan the money out "cheap" so to speak, with a lot of interest. Without Robert going crazy the crown would never have been in a "default" position, they would simply have paid it off. But Robert being an asshole +every other king being a violent asshole created a situation where default was possible for the first time in a while.

As for what they can do...Faceless Men? This is a magical world, you're never as safe as you would like to think that you are. There are always wild cards. Of course, the Iron Thrones can also wage a war of assassination but, depending on the organization of the banks a feudal lord would probably suffer more from assassinations than a bank would,especially with magic assassins that are almost always successful.

Imagine that situation going on for years and years, no one knowing when they'd bite it...No one wants to live like that.

Also: how is Stannis best placed? Stannis probably won't win. The Lannisters may have lost their mines but they loaned out a lot oft he money and the Tyrells are rich. The Tyrells, you know...the ones that despise Stannis for both recent and historical reasons. The two families aren't going to play well, that's part of the reason they rebelled in the first place. Unfortunately for Stannis they have a nice huge army that is relatively unscathed.

All they're going to do by trying to place Stannis on the throne is to make the land poorer.

And can we go back to the obvious fact that no one, absolutely NO ONE has given the slightest indication that they have an interest in defaulting. Goddamn.

many lords might flock to Stannis

You mean the same lords that had a chance when Robb was distracting Tywin up north after whipping his ass and capturing Jaime and they didn't? It's been established that no one likes Stannis, even before he became the sort of man that burned others alive for keeping their religion (the show seriously did a fucking number on Stannis with that one I have to say completely unnecessary) .

The lords chose the Tyrells and/or the Crown before and they'll do it again.

The Stormlands supported Stannis which is why he was able to field a large army. Loras Tyrell might hate Stannis, but I'm not aware of a reason the rest of them would.

As for the rest of it, do we know that the Iron Throne has made all of its payments? Maybe they've started missing a few...

[TheHammer]

The lords won't flock to Stannis' banner. They don't like him, and they know that he would tax the living shit out of them, because he would have to in order to pay off the loans he's already got. If Stannis were to take the Iron Throne, he would need to do so the hard way.

And can we go back to the obvious fact that no one, absolutely NO ONE has given the slightest indication that they have an interest in defaulting. Goddamn.

No one has shown any indications of paying back the bank, either. At what point does not paying anyone back become defaulting? And do they really want to wait until it's time to repo their Camaro (or the Westerosi equivalent)?

Stannis would likely cut all the feasts and tournaments that Robert was so fond of. He could begin austerity measures to pay back the Iron bank without having to "tax the shit out of them".

As far as which lords would join him, I believe Ser Jorah was dead on when he said "The houses of Westeros will do as they always have, support the house they think is going to win". If we've learned nothing else, there is no better way for a lower house to move up the ranks than to back the winning side against other highlords.

[Vympel]

Iron Bank's leverage elaborated upon in spoiler text. The idea that the Iron Throne can just ignore the Iron Bank is ... narrowminded to say the least.

Just to be clear: your claim is that the Tyrells and Lannisters-who are infinitely better placed to rule the kingdoms-

Better placed right now, with Tywin. Not necessarily after. That's Davos' entire point.

are not going to renege and that this is a concrete political fact You really think that this works in your favor?

Yes, for the same reasons that Davos ellaborated on the show - once Tywin Lannister dies of old age, the certainty of their investment dies with him, because there's no clear authoritative figure to replace him. Not a boy king, not his despised mother. This places their entire investment in danger. So it makes sense to diversify your portfolio and hedge your bets. If Stannis fails, so what? The gold they loaned him is a drop in the bucket.

As for the loan not being a social contract: all transactions are counted. Or does the Iron Bank go to the courts in Westeros to punish defaulters?

What does that even mean? And no, they Spoiler

call in all their loans all over Westeros and refuse to make new ones. Which is exactly what they do in the books when Cersei is fool enough to stop paying because Cersei is a huge idiot.

Consideration quickly becomes SOP when the incentives line up. There is a way of dealing with loanees. For obvious reasons:"we're just gonna support rebels lol" isn't a particularly strong case. The incentives seem pretty clear here: causing a war might cause a default. The Iron Throne might default on purpose or be forced to default and everyone who hears about it will know why. For an organization said to be conservative and interested in safeguarding its wealth it's pretty stupid.

Its absolutely a strong case. No matter what the Iron Bank does, they're going to get their gold. Your entire argument that they're not going to get their gold is predicated on the Iron Throne taking umbrage at the Iron Bank financing their enemy and not paying - which will only serve to ensure their defeat that much quicker for reasons indicated above.

[Pelranius]

I think it is pretty obvious that the chain of events is 1) Davos/Shireen write letter, 2) Davos goes to Stannis, Stannis approves plan 3) Raven sent to Bank 4) Bank sends raven back and invites them to Braavos 5) They go to Braavos. Or at least something similar. .

Can't believe I skipped Step 2.