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 Post subject: Re: New Hampshire Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-12 02:10pm
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Skgoa wrote:
What I find really wierd is that most of the "anyone but Romney" candidates would stand to gain much more in the long run, if the all put their support behind one of them. But then again, many of those might only be in it for the book deal/FOX job.
There's also genuine diversity among the candidates- for example, Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum all appeal to different chunks of the far-right demographic (Texas-style rednecks, Tea Partiers, and fundamentalists, respectively). There is some overlap, but many of the people who avidly support one of them probably wouldn't give the others anything like the same degree of support.

One thing this election cycle is really underlining is that unlike the 1994-2006 era, the Republicans of 2012 simply cannot be viewed as a single homogeneous blob of people who are all corporatists and fundamentalists and jingoists and so on. Given the opportunity, they split up into different groups with different agendas; it remains to be seen how well they'll be able to unite for the common cause of achieving a compromise form of all those agendas at once.

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 Post subject: Re: New Hampshire Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-12 04:40pm
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Skgoa wrote:
What I find really wierd is that most of the "anyone but Romney" candidates would stand to gain much more in the long run, if the all put their support behind one of them. But then again, many of those might only be in it for the book deal/FOX job.

If you have a look at the combined polls, as some of these "anybody but Romney" candidates drop out, Mitt Romney is getting a boost. Mitt is picking up some votes that used to be "anti-Romney" votes.

I think when Newt and Huntsman drop out, a significant proportion of their votes will go to Mitt Romney as they are all seen as "practical moderates" (For the Republican party anyway). When Perry drops out, his votes will go to Santorum. Ron Paul is going to get trounced in the next two states, so I'm not sure what he will do.

The "Anti-Romney" vote is split amongst itself.

You will have a two/three way race with Mitt Romney, Santorum and maybe Ron Paul. Mitt will have the most votes and most campaigning cash. His claim for the Republican candidacy will be the strongest.



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Last edited by bobalot on 2012-01-12 04:50pm, edited 1 time in total.
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 Post subject: Re: New Hampshire Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-12 04:45pm
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I predict that we WILL see a third-party candidate, maybe even a Tea Party candidate.

Yeah, there are always third party candidates, but none are particularly viable. I don't foresee Paul doing it because the Rethugs are holding Rand hostage so that leaves Gingrich and Trump. I don't see Gingrich doing it because he just doesn't have the support, but Trump maybe. His ego is big enough and there are enough fools who will follow his China rhetoric at the expense of everything else.



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 Post subject: Re: New Hampshire Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-12 05:17pm
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At this point, the only realistic (and I use that word broadly) way for Romney to lose the nomination is if Ron Paul and one other non-Romney stay in for the whole race and keep Romney from securing a majority of delegates, triggering a brokered convention. It's not likely at all, though.

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 Post subject: Re: Iowa Caucus PostPosted: 2012-01-19 01:09pm
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Rather than make a new thread, update time. Turns out Rick Santorum won by 34 votes per the vote USA Today

Which means Mittens is going to get knocked in the media since he's now only won one state and that will be in the main stream media's mind a massive game changer. This is of course despite the fact the vote total was only an 8 vote edge to begin with.




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 Post subject: Re: Iowa Caucus PostPosted: 2012-01-19 07:48pm
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 Post subject: Re: Iowa Caucus PostPosted: 2012-01-19 09:09pm
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It's a fucking tie. They got the same number of delegates. This horserace shit is ruining America.



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 Post subject: Re: Iowa Caucus PostPosted: 2012-01-19 10:51pm
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Caucuses, delegates, blah blahs, Santorum doesn't have a chance once the polls open up more nationally.



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 Post subject: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-21 08:08pm
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MSNBC

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Gingrich wins SC GOP primary, beating Romney
By Michael O'Brien, msnbc.com

Updated 7:00 p.m. ET

Newt Gingrich has won the South Carolina Republican primary, capping off a remarkable comeback for his presidential bid that reshapes the trajectory of the battle for the GOP nomination.

Based on early exit polls, NBC News projects Gingrich as the winner of the primary, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will finish second.

The results mark the end of a tumultuous week in politics that saw Gingrich erase and then overcome the lead Romney had in the Palmetto State following his victory in the Jan. 10 New Hampshire primary. Gingrich came on strong in the closing days of the campaign, looking to rally under his banner the many conservatives unwilling to get behind Romney, who had sought to posture himself as the eventual nominee.

Gingrich's performance in South Carolina was driven in thanks to late deciders, who broke decisively in his direction in the last few days of the campaign. That stretch saw two debate performances by Gingrich, on Monday and Thursday nights. Almost two-thirds of voters said the debates were an important factor in their decision, and Gingrich won about half of them.

More broadly, core elements of the GOP base in South Carolina – conservatives, Tea Party supporters and evangelical Christians – broke for Gingrich. And the former speaker even edged Romney in two important constituencies for the former Massachusetts governor: voters who said electability in November was their most important concern in a nominee, and voters who said the economy was their top issue.

The results upset the conventional wisdom in the race, which had set expectations for Romney to score a knockout blow against his competitors with a win in the Palmetto State.

Gingrich’s victory reshapes the race, at a minimum extending the primary contest through the Jan. 31 primary in Florida. The South Carolina results underscore Romney’s lingering inability to overcome skepticism from conservatives about electing him as their standard-bearer against President Obama this fall.

Gingrich had erased Romney’s lead by abandoning his previous pledge to wage a “relentlessly positive” campaign. The former speaker eventually embraced a strategy of drawing strong contrasts with Romney and benefited from the negative advertising run on his behalf by a super PAC – a practice Gingrich loudly denounced in Iowa, where he saw his poll numbers collapse amid attacks by a pro-Romney super PAC.

“I hope to win S.C.” Gingrich said Friday night in Orangeburg, “God willing we'll win, and tomorrow night will be very interesting and then Florida will be even more interesting and I'm sure you'll want to come with us.”

His victory provides, if nothing else, a symbolic imprimatur; the winner of the South Carolina primary has gone on to win the nomination in each Republican primary since the contest’s inception in 1980.

Voters headed to the polls in stormy conditions throughout most of the Palmetto State that could hold down turnout in some areas. County election officials reported light turnout in some areas, and heavier than expected voter rolls in other areas.

The South Carolina results capped one of the most tumultuous weeks in the presidential campaign thus far, a week that saw the veneer of inevitability the Romney campaign had built for itself erode by the end.

Recertified results in the Iowa caucuses found that he had actually lost the contest by a handful of votes to former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. And Romney has fought to withstand some of the most intense scrutiny he’s faced during the campaign; critics have assailed his private equity career and demanded Romney release his tax returns – demands which only reached a fever pitch after Romney estimated he pays an effective rate of 15 percent of his income in taxes.

Moreover, Romney’s performance in South Carolina will speak volumes about his fractious relationship with movement conservatives. He’s struggled at times to break through a ceiling on his support from those voters, who are skeptical of Romney’s past conversion on abortion rights and his embrace of authorship of a health care law as governor that closely resembles Obama’s 2010 reform law.

Romney had largely stuck to message in South Carolina, where he’s campaigned since winning Jan. 10’s New Hampshire primary, by keeping his focus on Obama and posturing himself more as a presumptive nominee.

But in an acknowledgement of Gingrich’s late push, the Romney campaign has also revived the attacks on the former speaker they used to great effect in Iowa to tamp down Gingrich’s December surge.

“Let's have him describe his relationships in Washington,” Romney said Saturday in Greenville, turning up the heat on Gingrich and highlighting the ex-speaker’s work on behalf of troubled mortgage giant Freddie Mac. “If people think Washington is the answer, if people think someone who spent the great majority of their life in Washington, I'll be surprised."

Romney’s campaign appears poised to make that argument even more sharply in Florida. They circulated a “flashback” video on Saturday reminding voters of the ethics investigation Gingrich had faced during his speakership.

Nonetheless, the fact that Gingrich has arrived at the precipice of political resurrection – again – this cycle is itself remarkable.

Political observers had questioned when, not if, he would drop out after suffering missteps at the outset of his campaign that led to the defection of virtually all of his top staff last June. But Gingrich stuck with it and climbed to the top of the polls in Iowa, only to see his numbers implode again after weathering attacks from super PACs and Texas Rep. Ron Paul’s campaign.

In South Carolina, the former speaker has been aided by a variety of factors contributing to his potential comeback. He’s scored major points with voters with a couple of strong debate performances this week, particularly by way of launching acerbic attacks on the media. His angry refusal to answer allegations made by an ex-wife topped headlines coming out of a debate on Thursday – the same day that saw Texas Gov. Rick Perry drop his own campaign and endorse Gingrich.

The winnowed field (Jon Huntsman also ended his campaign and endorsed Romney), only reduced the number of candidates threatening to divide the anti-Romney vote in South Carolina.

Santorum, crowned the winner of the Iowa caucuses upon further review of the vote totals, had doggedly criticized both Romney and Gingrich in hopes of rallying conservatives behind his unflashy, if consistent, record.

"You know most of the polls had us down in the fourth place area and we were hoping that we can finish third or maybe even a good third," he said in Chapin on Saturday, vowing to continue in his campaign into the next contest in Florida.

The Romney campaign is hoping that contest, which awards all of the delegates to its winner, features a primary closed to registered Republicans in a large swing state, will be its firewall. It’s a more expensive campaign to wage because of its multiple, expensive media markets, and is seen as a test of organizational strength.

Romney’s advantage there is one of the reasons the Paul campaign, which is polling third in South Carolina, at 16 percent, in a NBC News-Marist poll earlier this week, has elected to skip the next battle in Florida in favor of focusing on caucuses.

NBC’s Garrett Haake, Alex Moe and Andrew Rafferty contributed.


Say racist shit to pander to a state full of racist shitheads and win? SHOCKING!



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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-21 08:50pm
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NEWT WINS NEWT WINS!!!

Oh FUCK yeah!!!
Could it be, Could it fucking be that Newt will end up with the Nominee?

I mean the whole time everyone has been going on about SC with this whole "SC has always predicted the eventual GOP Nominee" And here newt wins!

Which means either Mittens wins, breaking it for the first time in history, OR Obama is going up against Gingrinch in the general.

Again, FUCK YEAH.



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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-21 09:01pm
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Crossroads Inc. wrote:
NEWT WINS NEWT WINS!!!

Oh FUCK yeah!!!
Could it be, Could it fucking be that Newt will end up with the Nominee?

I mean the whole time everyone has been going on about SC with this whole "SC has always predicted the eventual GOP Nominee" And here newt wins!

Which means either Mittens wins, breaking it for the first time in history, OR Obama is going up against Gingrinch in the general.

Again, FUCK YEAH.

I don't know what you're so cheerful about. Any Republican who wins the nomination to be their candidate will have rich white assholes lining up to give huge quantities of cash to that candidate's affiliated SuperPACs to buy the votes of gullible, easily-distracted, and easily spooked voters. I trust the American voter about as far as I can throw him or her. Given that the average American is somewhat obese, that means I don't trust the American voter very far. We should be hoping, and working for the day, that candidates who aren't insane are nominated to run for even offices as important as City Dog Catcher, let alone President of the United States of fucking America.




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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-21 09:05pm
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What I am wondering is: coul we have a race that is so close for so long that Paul could become kingmaker? E.g. President Gingrich and Vice President Ron Paul...



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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-21 09:21pm
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Skgoa wrote:
What I am wondering is: coul we have a race that is so close for so long that Paul could become kingmaker? E.g. President Gingrich and Vice President Ron Paul...

Funny enough Gingrich and Paul are pretty much the only two man team that can come out of that. Paul and Santorum does not work, and Mittens hates Paul. The question is now if Santorum drops out after Florida which might create the 3 man race to the end.

@Edit
At this very minute we are talking 41% Gingrich, 26% Gingrich 18% Santorum and 13% Paul, the other 2%? Herman Cain.




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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-21 09:26pm
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Mr Bean wrote:
Skgoa wrote:
What I am wondering is: coul we have a race that is so close for so long that Paul could become kingmaker? E.g. President Gingrich and Vice President Ron Paul...

Funny enough Gingrich and Paul are pretty much the only two man team that can come out of that. Paul and Santorum does not work, and Mittens hates Paul. The question is now if Santorum drops out after Florida which might create the 3 man race to the end.

I don't know about that, as I'm fairly certain Paul hates Gingrich's guts. I also don't think Newt's going to forget the chickenhawk thing.



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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-21 09:48pm
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Mr Bean wrote:
@Edit
At this very minute we are talking 41% Gingrich, 26% Gingrich 18% Santorum and 13% Paul, the other 2%? Herman Cain.


I think you mean 41% Gingrich 26% Romney, unless Romney got to be on the ballot twice.



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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-21 10:00pm
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Only in the state that STILL thinks secession was a good idea, and in a time when teabagger fanaticism has taken such a complete hold on conservatives, could a fucked-up result like this one emerge. But then, considering that South Carolina's fundies are likely of the opinion that Mormonism is a cult, they'd have likely gone with anybody strong enough who wasn't Romney. Gingrich emerged as the strongest Anti-Romney, so perhaps this result is not so surprising after all.



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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-21 10:02pm
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Patrick Degan wrote:
Only in the state that STILL thinks secession was a good idea, and in a time when teabagger fanaticism has taken such a complete hold on conservatives, could a fucked-up result like this one emerge. But then, considering that South Carolina's fundies are likely of the opinion that Mormonism is a cult, they'd have likely gone with anybody strong enough who wasn't Romney.


Doubt that. Romney was leading comfortably until recently. It was more of Gingrich's performances in the debates.



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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-21 10:55pm
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General Mung Beans wrote:
Doubt that. Romney was leading comfortably until recently. It was more of Gingrich's performances in the debates.

Mung Beans is correct Degan, Romney was shit in the debate and Gingrich was strong as is typical. Newt went from 17 in some polls in a week to 42% which is a twenty five point swing.

Round up of the speeches
Sanatorium- Running for Vice President
Ron Paul-I'm getting delegates and I'm here for the long game, and now for the Ron Paul after primary lecture about Libertarian Economics yaaah
Mittens-Robot will deliver congratulations speech, Robot will be very generic and not hit anyone. Robot switching primary target to Florida, Robot mentions SC twice then targets only Florida
Newt Gingrich-Gingrich SMASH, Take that media! He also sad nice things about Ron Paul, Sanatorium and Mittens, also doubles down on pretty much everything. Especially the Racism.

Two counties left and polls are Gingrich 40%, Mittens 27%, Sanatorium 17% Paul 13%, 3% Herman Cain




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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-21 11:07pm
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Gingrich has something like a 27% favorability rating nationwide and would be completely hopeless in the general election unless Obama got caught fucking a goat or something. If you don't want the Republicans to win the Presidency, root for Newt in the primary.

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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-21 11:15pm
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DudeGuyMan wrote:
Gingrich has something like a 27% favorability rating nationwide and would be completely hopeless in the general election unless Obama got caught fucking a goat or something. If you don't want the Republicans to win the Presidency, root for Newt in the primary.

That's nothing 2 billion in adds won't fix. His favorability rate can easily improve with time. I'd personally rather have Mittens given his 1% status and tone deafness playing so well into the Occupy movement.

Speaking of, listen to Mittens speech for yourself, it's ten minutes of fuck you I got mine




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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-22 12:27am
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Anyone can gain ground with enough advertising, but Gingrich is such a known commodity with so many negatives. Rehabilitating his image is a much taller order than smoothing over a few dumb Romney comments. He's as close as it gets to unelectable.

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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-22 01:00am
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This is going to be a long fucking primary season. My night is going to consist of...well, nothing, for the next 8 hours. I'm scheduled on the overnight and Newt won in a landslide. Fuck.



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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-22 01:27am
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My sympathies.

And what the hell is South Carolina smoking? Their hatered of Mittens must exceed their hatered for Obama. Well, how about that.



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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-22 01:28am
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General Mung Beans wrote:
Two counties left and polls are Gingrich 40%, Mittens 27%, Sanatorium 17% Paul 13%, 3% Herman Cain


(Un)fortunately Herman Cain "Stephen Colbert" ended up with 1.1%

Newt Gingrich 243,398 40.4%
Mitt Romney 167,957 27.9%
Rick Santorum 102,213 17%
Ron Paul 78,093 13%
Herman Cain 6,326 1.1%
Rick Perry 2,549 0.4%
Other 1,897 0.3%

Will beating the dropouts be enough for Colbert to continue the joke?

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 Post subject: Re: NBC: Gingrich Wins SC GOP Primary PostPosted: 2012-01-22 02:32am
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Ooh, Paul didn't do well at all this time.

I'm surprised by the formidability of Gingrich's lead.

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