Red Europe (RAR!)

[Thunderfire]

A more likely scenario whould be no Unternehmen Weserübung + bigger soviet victories vs japan & finland followed by a much nastier battle of france(both spain and protugal get pulled in). In 1943 the USSR attacks both germany and the allies.

[lord Martiya]

Question: if U.S.A. are neutral in WWII, what's happened to Japan? I suppose that it could remain the great power of Eastern Asia, and I know that Japan had its own nuclear program...

[Androsphinx]

A more likely scenario whould be no Unternehmen Weserübung + bigger soviet victories vs japan & finland followed by a much nastier battle of france(both spain and protugal get pulled in). In 1943 the USSR attacks both germany and the allies.

You what? The USA didn't enter the war until December 1941. How would that effect Weserübung or the battle of France? Why would Spain or Portugal defend France? How could they? Why do the USSR suddenly decide to attack the Japanese, with the Germans on their border? If there's no USA, there -are- no "allies", and why on earth (assuming that you mean the UK) would the USSR go to war with both the UK and Germany at the same time, especially while fighting (for some reason) the Japanese?

How is any of that more likely?

[Sea Skimmer]

Question: if U.S.A. are neutral in WWII, what's happened to Japan? I suppose that it could remain the great power of Eastern Asia, and I know that Japan had its own nuclear program...

Japans nuclear program concluded that building a bomb, if it was at all possible, would take 20 years and resources Japan did not have. Thus no significant investment was made, and given the way the war in China was sucking the life out of the nation that’s not going to change. Unlike the Soviets the Japanese do not have the luxury of spies highly placed in the Manhattan Project, and they aren’t likely to resume work on nuclear weapons until after the US has demonstrated one in some way or another. Even then it should still take a number of years for them to build one, so probably it wont happen before the mid to late 1950s.

Meanwhile Japan would basically be stuck in China, and even if they ever do manage to finish off the nationalists as a major military force, they’ll still have an enormously expensive occupation to maintain. That will make it very difficult to actually invest in extracting resource from the place.

[K. A. Pital]

A more likely scenario whould be no Unternehmen Weserübung + bigger soviet victories vs japan & finland followed by a much nastier battle of france(both spain and protugal get pulled in). In 1943 the USSR attacks both germany and the allies.

WHAT? Good god. Andro already shot this silly lunacy down... apparently your knowledge of history is miserable though, my sincere advice is to improve it.

[MKSheppard]

To put it simply, this is just a huge bonus to the USSR with little downsides. If the US stays out of WWII PERIOD, I don't even know if they have their nuclear monopoly in 1945. If US crushes Japan with atomic bombings as it did, and tries to level demands at the Soviet Union, it won't be long before the USSR uses the full strength of industries in europe and at home to create jet interceptors, rocketry and long-range bombers to counter the USAF threat.

Too bad that the US had a bomb program going well before she entered the war; same with her mass military buildup. In fact, an Isolationist US is more likely to create the B-36; since we will not need any foreign help; as we will be able to bomb europe from CONUS with our B-36s.

Hell, when you look at the position of strength the US had in the 1950s with The Bomb and a nigh-uninterceptable platform capable of striking virtually any target from the Continental US; it's amazing that we did nothing with that kind of immense power.

EDIT: Even if nothing happens, overflights by RB-36s of western Russia will be a daily occurence; since we won't have the masses of captured german documents and aerial surveys that we did in @. Instead of a U-2 crisis, we have a RB-36 crisis when the USSR finally manages to get a MiG-17 with afterburner in the right place.

[K. A. Pital]

Too bad that the US had a bomb program going well before she entered the war

Nothing bad about that - without the war, there'd be still nuclear programs, just no massive acceleration of it.

In fact, an Isolationist US is more likely to create the B-36; since we will not need any foreign help; as we will be able to bomb europe from CONUS with our B-36s.

What for? There was a realistic need to move forward with heavy LR bombers in OTL; what need is that now?

Even if nothing happens, overflights by RB-36s of western Russia will be a daily occurence; since we won't have the masses of captured german documents and aerial surveys that we did in @.

Sure something like that would happen, aerial recon will be a very important task for the US, but so?

[K. A. Pital]

A rough map:

[Androsphinx]

Nice...

But what about all those European colonies in Africa? Can you plot those on the map as well?

[Thunderfire]

]
You what? The USA didn't enter the war until December 1941. How would that effect Weserübung or the battle of France? Why would Spain or Portugal defend France? How could they? Why do the USSR suddenly decide to attack the Japanese, with the Germans on their border? If there's no USA, there -are- no "allies", and why on earth (assuming that you mean the UK) would the USSR go to war with both the UK and Germany at the same time, especially while fighting (for some reason) the Japanese?

How is any of that more likely?

Why attack Japan?
Because they did that in OTL(Nomomhan incident). A worse japanese defeat -> no pearl harbor -> US and Japan remain neutrals.

How would that effect Weserübung or the battle of France?
No Weserübung = allied norway - germany has another front to watch -> less troops& swedish steel for the battel of france. Allied support for finland creates some nice friction with the USSR.

About portugal & spain joining the fight. They have a hard time staying neutral wenn the fighting gets closer to the spanish border. Spain joins the axis while portugal sides with the allies.

The USSR attacking both germany and the allies(uk & france). Well the allies and germany both had plans to attack the USSR. Stalin decides to eleminate both of them before the are prepared for a war with the USSR

[Androsphinx]

Yes, but WHY? Why would the USSR/Japan skirmish suddenly turn into this huge front? Why, with the Germans salivating on their borders, would Stalin direct large forces along a terribly-stretched supply chain to fight a pointless war in China?

Why would any of this affect Weserubung? It was precisely because of that potential front that the Germans invaded in the first place (that and industrial/raw resources).

Why on earth would the Allies and Germans - who are at war with each other - co-operate against the Soviets, especially when the UK/France have no desire to get into -another- war with a major Power.

Oh, it's futile. Go read some history books.

[K. A. Pital]

Why attack Japan? Because they did that in OTL(Nomomhan incident). A worse japanese defeat -> no pearl harbor -> US and Japan remain neutrals.

The USSR attacked the Japanese here? It seems it was just the other way around, or, more correctly, not even that! The Japanese made a landgrab for Mongolia, a Soviet satellite, got beaten. And note that Japanese defeats at Khalkhin Gol taught them only ONE thing: don't attack the USSR or it's allies. It did not change their understanding of war military technology, importance of armor, or the general strategic wish to conquer Indochina. So why would they act any different from OTL? They will not, and neither will that affect anything in Europe even if they do act differently

How would that effect Weserübung or the battle of France? No Weserübung = allied norway - germany has another front to watch -> less troops& swedish steel for the battel of france. Allied support for finland creates some nice friction with the USSR.

That's pathetic. Why would there be no Weserubung?

About portugal & spain joining the fight. They have a hard time staying neutral wenn the fighting gets closer to the spanish border. Spain joins the axis while portugal sides with the allies.

Because of... what?

The USSR attacking both germany and the allies(uk & france). Well the allies and germany both had plans to attack the USSR.

Not really. There were no "allies", and Britain and France only had brief plans to attack the Baku oil refineries, but abandoned that shortly. They have no land front with the USSR, nor any coherent "attack plan".

Stalin decides to eleminate both of them before the are prepared for a war with the USSR

That's ridiculous. The USSR doesn't have the resources to do that, not touching upon the implications of that political suicide move. If you read Stalin and Dimitrov's letter exchange in 1940s, you could understand that Stalin adequately looked at the capabilities of the USSR. His strategy was to sit down amidst the imperialist war and try to quietly annex the former Russian Empire lands. He also knew that in case of agression, the RKKA would be in dire straits, especially after the Blue-Red wargames and the Winter War. He ordered the industry to make initial preparations for evacuation deep into the USSR way before the war started. He certainly knew the USSR, although rich in natural resources, was badly lacking in industrial machinery and would be badly mauled in such a war.

In short, that's ridiculous. All of that. Events prior to December 1941 remain unchanged, because WHY the fuck would they change? There's nothing about another Point of Divergence in the OP, the PoD is the December 1941 moment when the US does not enter the war.

[K. A. Pital]

Immediate effect from the formation of greater Soviet sphere encompassing the entire Europe for the colonies.


There are many ways of action. Some colonies could rebel, some become socialist, others may be forcefully decolonized since the USSR had prior ties with the leaders of national-liberation movements there and will probably try to sate their agreements to have yet more territories fall into it's influence.

[Androsphinx]

The funniest bit of this is that it probably makes the rest of the 20th century a safer place to live in. Albeit less nice for Western Europe. But hey, they're no longer the initial battleground and (until ICBMs) ground zero for WW3. They should be grateful!

[K. A. Pital]

It might make Europe safer since neither it's West nor East are any longer potential battlegrounds for a large war.

However, the rest of the world - namely the Colonies, also China, India and the Japanese Empire are not safe at all. In fact, they're the most far term from "safe". Those places would become conflict spots in a powerplay between the Super USSR on one side, the ailing and crumbling British Empire which lost most of it's Allies and will cling, if needed - with extreme ruthlessness - to it's territorial posessions, and the US which sooner or later will start entering the powerplay.

Now, with such cards on table, probably the US will not quite become the same superpower, and the world as a whole would be more multipolar (a surprising result, but with Japanese, British Empires still rocking around that's very likely). But proxy wars and conflicts in the colonies... that's nigh unavoidable.

[Thunderfire]

Yes, but WHY? Why would the USSR/Japan skirmish suddenly turn into this huge front?

That's not necessary. To my knowledge the soviets won on the ground war and the japanese won the air war. Change this to a soviet victory in the air war and japan loose some territory and much more aircraft. This has negaive side effects on other japanese campaigns.

Why would any of this affect Weserubung? It was precisely because of that potential front that the Germans invaded in the first place (that and industrial/raw resources).

The allies planed to send supplies to finland from norway. The winter war ended before this could happen. A more successfull soviet union tries to conquer all of finland -> allied norway -> Werserubung gets canced or fails spectaculary.

Why on earth would the Allies and Germans - who are at war with each other - co-operate against the Soviets, especially when the UK/France have no desire to get into.

They don't. The soviets attack both germany and the allies in this scenario. Why because - both germany and the allies had plans to attack the USSR and the soviets decide to hit them before the victor of the germany/allies war is able to recover and move his forces to the east.

[Thunderfire]

The USSR attacked the Japanese here? It seems it was just the other way around, or, more correctly, not even that!

Not in 1939 - the mess stated when mongolian/soviet units moved into japanese controled territories.

About Spain and Portugal. Do you think that the allies will stop at the spanish border after the germans have conquered most of france? I don't think so.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

The USSR attacked the Japanese here? It seems it was just the other way around, or, more correctly, not even that!

Not in 1939 - the mess stated when mongolian/soviet units moved into japanese controled territories.

About Spain and Portugal. Do you think that the allies will stop at the spanish border after the germans have conquered most of france? I don't think so.

Just what on earth are you talking about? Sources? The Khaklin Gol incident was instigated by the Japanese, and they got their ass handed to them. And they rushed to sign a truce with the Russians which both sides honored until the end of WWII when the USSR finally made good on their promise to invade Manchuria.

[Androsphinx]

It might make Europe safer since neither it's West nor East are any longer potential battlegrounds for a large war.

...

Now, with such cards on table, probably the US will not quite become the same superpower, and the world as a whole would be more multipolar (a surprising result, but with Japanese, British Empires still rocking around that's very likely). But proxy wars and conflicts in the colonies... that's nigh unavoidable.

But the British just don't have the resources to fight a global war, let alone once against Super!USSR. And they certainly don't have the resources for a significant nuclear programme - even if fighting a solo war against the Germans for five+ years doesn't bankrupt them totally.

My main concern was for total thermonuclear destruction and megadeaths, which seem somewhat less probable.

[K. A. Pital]

That's not necessary. To my knowledge the soviets won on the ground war and the japanese won the air war. Change this to a soviet victory in the air war and japan loose some territory and much more aircraft. This has negaive side effects on other japanese campaigns.

What on earth are you smoking? Japan lose WHAT territory, idiot? They incursed into Mongolian territory, not even Soviet. The USSR never tried to get any more territory from Japan until the end of the war, when it declared war on Japan under Allied obligations.

The allies planed to send supplies to finland from norway. The winter war ended before this could happen. A more successfull soviet union tries to conquer all of finland -> allied norway -> Werserubung gets canced or fails spectaculary.

The British and French had their armies given the order not to engage Soviet forces in Finland, and the goal was always a possible occupation of Norway, but they did not go through with it.

And how exactly would them capturing the north of Norway prevent Weserubung, idiot, even if that _very_ unlikely scenario happened? Hitler said that any Allied troops in Norway automatically meant provocation for war. He would have ran Weserubung and captured the populated southern parts of Norway, then kicked the Allies' ass out. End of story, Hitler was in a more favourable position. Period. That's also one of the reasons France and Britain never went forward with it.

They don't. The soviets attack both germany and the allies in this scenario. Why because - both germany and the allies had plans to attack the USSR and the soviets decide to hit them before the victor of the germany/allies war is able to recover and move his forces to the east.

WHAT are you smoking? The USSR can't even attack "the Allies" as it has no common land front with them! Not to mention that it's plain idiocy, declaring war on everyone including your potential allies against Germany at the same time.

[Thunderfire]

What on earth are you smoking? Japan lose WHAT territory, idiot?

To my knowledge the japanese/manchurians lost a bit of territory(Chenkufeng/Zaozernaya) after the battle of lake khasan. The same thing could very well happen after the battle of khalkhin gol too.

Weserübung was a disaster for the kriegsmarine. Add more ships and fighter squadrons and a better prepared norway would be able to resist the german invasion. An allied norway supporting finnish guerilla - well there are going to be some border skimishes one the norwegian/soviet findland border.

[Thunderfire]

Just what on earth are you talking about? Sources? The Khaklin Gol incident was instigated by the Japanese, and they got their ass handed to them. And they rushed to sign a truce with the Russians which both sides honored until the end of WWII when the USSR finally made good on their promise to invade Manchuria.

Khaklin Gol ground war started when mongolian cavalry moved into japanese/manchurian territories. The air war started when the japanese shot down a soviet/mongolian recon plane over japanese/mongolian territories. This all happend in May 1939.

[Sea Skimmer]

Khaklin Gol ground war started when mongolian cavalry moved into japanese/manchurian territories. The air war started when the japanese shot down a soviet/mongolian recon plane over japanese/mongolian territories. This all happend in May 1939.

That’s not really correct. The line of the boarder was disputed and unmarked, and the area was pretty much empty of everything. Mongolian cavalry did not leave the area of the Soviet claim. The Japanese response was to commit there own local puppet cavalry to drive the Mongolians back, but this was unsuccessful and they then committed an entire regiment (this was all on the authority of the local Japanese divisional commander) which also failed. Both sides then began reinforcing rapidly, but the Japanese opened the large scale fighting with a divisional attack.

The whole incident was the direct result of constant aggressive Japanese expansion, and the battle occurred because following a smaller battle in 1938 (which was started after Japanese troops crossed the internationally recognized China/Soviet boarder) Stalin vowed to stand firm on all Soviet territorial claims, which happened to predate those of Japan. Course, neither side really had any valid claim to the area.

[K. A. Pital]

The Japanese never had Zaozernaya to begin with, and levied demands at the USSR to grab it. The USSR already had troops there for a long time and didn't cower. Then the Japanese thought it's high time for their pathetic "North Strike" plans and tried to capture the Soviet territory.

The Japanese North Strike Group wanted to make a huge landgrab from the USSR up to Lake Baikal, but Khasan and Khalkin Gol taught them not to mess with the Soviet Union period.

The worse Japanese defeats are, the more likely they are to expand into the South Asia, with the rise of the South Strike Group that eventually led to expansionism against the British Empire and the US in Pearl Harbor.

Seriously, kid, go learn some history.

[Thunderfire]

The Japanese never had Zaozernaya to begin with, and levied demands at the USSR to grab it. The USSR already had troops there for a long time and didn't cower.

Really? I heared a different story about this area.

Soviets move in - Japanese protest - Soviets move out
Japanese move in - Soviets protest - Japanese stay
Soviets secrety move in and fortify the area around Chenkufeng - Japan protests - Soviets stay
Japan attacks the soviets, Japan looses , Soviets keep the Chengkufeng area and rename it Zaozernaya.


Bigger Japanese losses in the 1939 have negative effects on their war efforts in china. The "Szechwan Boys"(Soviet version of the Flying Tigers) will be a bigger threat in this scenario. Do you really think the japanese will attack pearl when the soviets are not at war with an european power?