RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by Tribble »

Thanas wrote:That would actually be canada.
in terms of actual spending, atm, yes, though even if we only have a few broken helicopters and a moose with 3 legs we'll still send them all when asked. We're ~equal to Japan in terms % GDP spent on military IIRC. However Canada is almost always ignored (by both friends and enemies) regardless of what it does and is indefensible geographically, so there really isn't much of a point in having a conventional military. In terms of helping the USA that funding would probably be better spent on better border patrols / anti terrorism etc.

Or Canada could go nuclear, but the odds of that are even lower than Germany.
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by Gandalf »

I find it amusing that after such a long period of the US going "we'll do as we want, lol realpolitik," they suddenly get annoyed at the idea of others not participating in a treaty correctly.
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by Patroklos »

That's what happens when you have a Europe that abdicates is worldwide security responsibilities.

I mean seriously, is there any good reason European NATO and Europe more generally, perhaps the most prosperous region of the world, has to outsource things like Kosovo or even things in what should be their immediate sphere of influence like Libya or even Syria? Is it not ridiculous that NATO member Europeans needed emergency rearmament from the US after a single week of bombing a third world backwater pretty much unopposed and even then only after a paltry number of daily sorties AND with the US and other non NATO countries doing half the work alongside them anyway? Its embarrassing.
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by Simon_Jester »

Patroklos wrote:I know you are talking generally here, but specific to NATO Trump's position is no different than Obama's. In fact this whole line of thought is actually called the "Obama Doctrine."
Did Obama openly insult European nations in the same tone Trump does? No.

Are there Obama quotes as stark as the ones Trump tweets on a regular basis? There are not.

Remember, this is entirely about other nations' perception of our willingness to back them up in the most desperate possible situation.

You can chide your best friend for not maintaining his car properly, if you're tactful about it. You can even do this without convincing him that you will refuse to give him a ride to work if his car breaks down.

But what you can't do (without creating that doubt) is 'go too far.' If you grossly and falsely insult him, berate him in front of your mutual friends, and post on Facebook about how maybe you'd be better off without his friendship... He's going to start having doubts about your reliability.

Again, the strategy of being a total asshole to European nations in hopes of 'convincing' them to increase defense spending might actually WORK, but it doesn't matter, because in the process of 'convincing' them, you also convinced them that you are useless and perhaps actively hostile as a partner, and that they cannot depend on you to back them in the worst-case scenario of nuclear war.
Gandalf wrote:I find it amusing that after such a long period of the US going "we'll do as we want, lol realpolitik," they suddenly get annoyed at the idea of others not participating in a treaty correctly.
I KNOW, RIGHT?
Patroklos wrote:That's what happens when you have a Europe that abdicates is worldwide security responsibilities.
And if Europeans say "wait, who died and made us world police?" then why is that a problem? I mean, arguably that's them learning the correct lesson from the disastrous clusterfuck of their old colonialism.

We can't just randomly decide what European nations 'need' to be able to do, get mad at them for not doing it, and then act as though we are shocked, shocked that some nation is ignoring a politically inconvenient treaty obligation, when we do that all the time ourselves. That's the point here.
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by Ralin »

Patroklos wrote:That's what happens when you have a Europe that abdicates is worldwide security responsibilities.

I mean seriously, is there any good reason European NATO and Europe more generally, perhaps the most prosperous region of the world, has to outsource things like Kosovo or even things in what should be their immediate sphere of influence like Libya or even Syria?
I always thought the unspoken benefit was 'not having to deal with an Europe heavily armed enough to potentially cause the US grief.'

No need to worry about France or Germany invading and occupying, I dunno, Egypt against the US's wishes when they're physically incapable of doing so.
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by Thanas »

Patroklos wrote:
Thanas wrote:It is a voluntary commitment, the year for meeting it is 2024.
1.) Everything about NATO is voluntary. There isn't even any requirements about what Article 5 commits a country to.
Actually there is, although hidden in legalese.

2.) The commitment is 2% now and has been for awhile, with the caveat if you are failing (ie already a shirker) to meet your commitment now you must do so by 2024. So no, that is no excuse and you are either deliberately lying or woefully misinformed.

3.) The 2% goal was REAFFIRMED in 2014. The goal actually comes from 2006. What's your excuse for 2006-2014?
What's your excuse for not meeting development spending? What's your excuse for destabilizing the middle east? What's your excuse for [insert dumb shit the USA has done recently here].

The fucking point is that there are no "excuses" needed. Every nation does dumb shit when it suits the political leadership of said nation.

But in case you missed it, our excuse for 2006-2014 was that we were a little bit busy dealing with a global recession caused by US banks, busy with propping up four collapsing nations of which at least one was collapsing due to Goldman Sachs cooking the books. But hey, I bet it would have gone down swimmingly if Merkel had said "We're gonna buy 200 new tanks instead of helping starving people in Southern Europe". Because obviously helping out Europeans is less important than meeting a spending goal.

This has been a problem since 1991. It is irrelevant what smoke screen of hyper contemporary excuses you want to hide your decades long shame behind. What was your excuse when Obama was saying the same thing six months ago?
I am merely pointing out that Trump is going the worst possible way about it. And if at the same time US diplomats go around and say "don't worry, he will definitely reiterate the commitment to Article 5" and then the EXACT OPPOSITE happens then people might be wondering "why are we spending this much money on something that only seems to be a tool to the americans"?

Besides, this being a problem since 1991 - you go ahead and tell me if it was wiser to spent that money on tanks or if it was wiser to spent it on reunification for Germany. Go ahead. I love to hear your rationale why - when integrating the other half of our people and when reuniting families - spending it on tanks to combat a nonexistent threat in the east would have been wiser.

See this is the thing about the USA. They don't have a fucking clue what the stresses on European nations are. Germany had to essentially develop a second world nation to the standards of the first world within a decade. You go ahead and tell me that if suddenly there would be another 200 million americans living in shit conditions the USA might not scrap a shiny new aircraft carrier project in favor of infrastructure spending?

Congratulations?

You seem to be implying that every NATO ally is equally important or relevant. That while all of them have the same obligations it is not more valuable to the alliance for some to be on the ball than others. This is obviously, as you should know, not the case.
I don't think you really want to make that argument as its logical conclusion does not further your cause in any way. But hey, maybe try and get basic facts right though.

As far as I know no US president has made any caveats that its okay for any member nation to not meet its spending goals (Canada has been called out as well given its recent decision to basically not have a modern airforce. The Baltic states, essentially irrelevant no matter what portion of GDP they spend, have received especially harsh criticism), but Germany has rightfully been called out more often and more vehemently because it is simply more important.
Right now the german argument is that figures that are spent on stabilizing nations should also be included in the overall contribution. So that is about it. I don't agree with all of it but on the other hand if Germany is spending millions to stop nations from collapsing (while the USA does jack shit in comparison) then that deserves to be taken into account.

Finally, we are increasing the budget but nearly every german defence expert agrees that doubling it would make no sense.

For the record, I am all for Germany spending more on the military. And we are increasing the budget. But this argument that Trump makes is simply tone-deaf and ill-informed.


That's nice, except German's OECD ODA number (2015) is 0.51 so...

Oh. You didn't know?
Of course I know. After all, it is released in the same document as the USA figure.

But thank you for proving my point: Everybody is ignoring voluntary commitments when it suits them.
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

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Also I love the fucking cheek in claiming that Syria should be Europe's problem. Remind me again which nation destabilized the whole region and continues to do so?
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by mr friendly guy »

Thanas wrote:
See this is the thing about the USA. They don't have a fucking clue what the stresses on European nations are. Germany had to essentially develop a second world nation to the standards of the first world within a decade. You go ahead and tell me that if suddenly there would be another 200 million americans living in shit conditions the USA might not scrap a shiny new aircraft carrier project in favor of infrastructure spending?
Well actually.... when you put it that way, maybe not.
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by Simon_Jester »

He means like if we suddenly had to "reunite" with a country that had a population of 2/3 our own, where average levels of income and infrastructure were much lower, oh AND everyone's a communist.

I'm preeeetty sure that if this suddenly happened to the US, suddenly a lot of Republicans would become big fans of infrastructure and business development aid programs in the new territory, if only to convince them all as quickly as possible that communism sucks and they should vote Republican.
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by Lord Revan »

Simon you forgot "already distrusting and paranoid of authorities" seeing as the East German people went straight from national social goverment into a "people's democracy" aka a particurally oppressive form of socialism and East Germany was one of the worst in that respects too at least in Europe, the people of East Germany would have massive trust issues about actually informing the new unified German goverment about things that are wrong.
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by Simon_Jester »

Yeah.

It's like, combine the pathological distrust of government from the American far right, tolerance of (but massive cynicism about) outright Marxism, high levels of poverty and a lack of the civil norms that enable people to function under a democracy because none of them have seen a working democracy in action for about sixty years if not longer...

There are only two ways to respond to "welp, guess people like that are a thing now." One is to have a plan to exploit and win their allegiance in mass numbers, which will almost certainly not work in the long run. The other is to work very, very hard at building them up, closing the infrastructure gap, and establishing intense commitment to all the things required to make democracy work for them.

I'm honestly pretty impressed that Germany pulled this off without plummeting into utter chaos. This isn't the first time I've thought that, either.
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by Lord Revan »

And a thing we should remember is that it wasn't 100% successful either the former East Germany is still one of the most poor regions of modern Germany IIRC and as such the re-unification process has not yet ended.

When you accept that priorities of the german people are first and foremost for to do thing that benefit themselves not what benefits Donald Trump or USA, it's quite understandble why the German goverment is more conserned about making sure that they're seen to work on those things that benefit the german people at least in theory rather then meeting a deadline set by Trump. The difference between Obama and Trump is that Obama requested as in "it would be nice if you could do this", while Trump demands as in "DO THIS OR I'LL ABANDDON YOU!!" (yes all caps was needed), needless to say European powers didn't mind Obama but do mind Trump for the exact reasons as how he phrased things.

Indeed Trump not knowing how to phrase things in international politics is the very reason RARs like this one exist.
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by Simon_Jester »

Yeah.

I'm reminded of a few key points from a review of The Art of the Deal done here, back in March 2016. Bearing in mind that the book was very, VERY ghostwritten, it was at least ghostwritten as a compilation of things Donald Trump actually did and said to the ghostwriter...

http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/03/19/bo ... -the-deal/
The downside of buying a book by a master manipulator is that sometimes you learn you were manipulated into buying the book.

Trump: The Art Of The Deal is 365 pages of some of the biggest print I have ever seen. The cover has a quote from the New York Times – “Trump makes one believe for a moment in the American dream again” – which some poor reviewer is probably desperately wishing he could take back right now.

Although the blurb says that he “fully reveals the deal-maker’s art” and that it is “an unprecedented education in the practice of deal-making” and “the ultimate read for anyone interested in achieving money and success” – only seventeen pages of very large print are anything resembling business advice. The rest of it is a weirdly deal-focused autobiography that doesn’t mention marrying his wife or having children, but devotes a lovingly detailed twenty-four pages to the time he renovated the Commodore Hotel.

But first, those seventeen pages. I am pleased to report that Donald Trump is well-abreast of modern science – he tells his readers looking for advice about how to make it big that deal-making is probably just genetic.

Either you’ve got the deal, gene or you don’t:
More than anything else, I think deal-making is an ability you’re born with. It’s in the genes…unlike the real estate evangelists you see all over television these days, I can’t promise you that by following the precepts I’m about to offer you’ll become a millionaire overnight. Unfortunately, life rarely works that way, and most people who try to get rich quick end up going broke instead...
...

Finally, his tenth rule is “Have Fun”:
I don’t kid myself. Life is very fragile, and success doesn’t change that. If anything, success makes it more fragile. Anything can change, without warning, and that’s why I try not to take any of what’s happened too seriously. Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game. I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about what I should have done differently, or what’s going to happen next. If you ask me exactly what the deals I’m about to describe all add up to in the end, I’m not sure I have a very good answer. Except that I’ve had a very good time making them.
Marcus Aurelius, eat your heart out.

III.

So much for seventeen pages of business advice. The other three hundred forty-eight pages are Trump gushing about the minutiae all of the interesting deals he’s been a part of.

“GUYS, YOU’RE NOT GOING TO BELIEVE THIS, THERE WAS THIS ONE SKYSCRAPER THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO HAVE A FLOOR TO AREA RATIO OF 6, BUT THEN I BEAT HILTON IN NEGOTIATING THE AIR RIGHTS FROM THE COMPANY NEXT DOOR, AND ACTIVATED AN OPTION TO BUY A PROPERTY ON THE OTHER SIDE OF IT, AND ALL OF THAT LANDED ME A PARTNERSHIP WITH ONE OF THE BIG BANKS, AND THEN THE PLANNING BOARD TOTALLY CHANGED THE FLOOR AREA RATIO! CAN YOU BELIEVE IT, GUYS??!”

Overall the effect was that of an infodump from an autistic child with a special interest in real estate development, which was both oddly endearing and not-so-oddly very boring.

I started the book with the question: what exactly do real estate developers do? They don’t design buildings; they hire an architect for that part. They don’t construct the buildings; they hire a construction company for that part. They don’t manage the buildings; they hire a management company for that part. They’re not even the capitalist who funds the whole thing; they get a loan from a bank for that. So what do they do? Why don’t you or I take out a $100 million loan from a bank, hire a company to build a $100 million skyscraper, and then rent it out for somewhat more than $100 million and become rich?

As best I can tell, the developer’s job is coordination. This often means blatant lies. The usual process goes like this: the bank would be happy to lend you the money as long as you have guaranteed renters. The renters would be happy to sign up as long as you show them a design. The architect would be happy to design the building as long as you tell them what the government’s allowing. The government would be happy to give you your permit as long as you have a construction company lined up. And the construction company would be happy to sign on with you as long as you have the money from the bank in your pocket. Or some kind of complicated multi-step catch-22 like that. The solution – or at least Trump’s solution – is to tell everybody that all the other players have agreed and the deal is completely done except for their signature. The trick is to lie to the right people in the right order, so that by the time somebody checks to see whether they’ve been conned, you actually do have the signatures you told them that you had. The whole thing sounds very stressful.

He had a couple more stories like this – but throughout all of it, there was a feeling of something missing. Here is a guy whose job is cutting through bureaucracy, and who is apparently quite good at it. Yet throughout the book – and for that matter, throughout his campaign for the nomination of a party that makes cutting bureaucracy a big part of their platform – he doesn’t devote a lot of energy to expressing discontent with the system. There is no libertarian streak to Trump – in the process of successfully navigating all of these terrible rules, he rarely takes a step back and wonders about a better world where these rules don’t exist. Despite having way more ability to change the system than most people, he seems to regard it as a given, not worth debating. I think back to his description of how it’s all just a big game to him. Most star basketball players are too busy shooting hoops to imagine whether the game might be more interesting if a three-pointer was worth five points, or whatever. Trump seems to have the same attitude – the rules are there; his job is to make the best deal he can within those rules.

...

Maybe I’m imagining things, but I feel like this explains a lot about his presidential campaign. People ask him something like “How would you fix Medicare?”, and he gives some vapid answer like “There are tremendous problems with Medicare, but I’m going to hire the best people. I know all of the best doctors and health care executives, and we’re going to cut some amazing deals and have the best Medicare in the world.” And yeah, he did say in his business tips that you should change the frame to avoid being negative to reporters. But this isn’t a negative or a gotcha question. At some point you’d expect Trump to do his homework and get some kind of Medicare plan or other. Instead he just goes off on the same few tangents. This thing about hiring the best people, for example, seems almost like an obsession in the book. But it works for him. When somebody sues him (which seems like an hourly occurrence in real estate development no matter how careful you are) his response is to find the best lawyer, hire them, and throw them at the problem. When he needs a hotel managed, he hires the best hotel managers and tells them to knock themselves out. Even his much-mocked tendency to talk about all the people he knows comes from this being a big part of his real estate strategy – one of the reasons he can outcompete other tycoons is because he knows people on the planning board, knows people in the banks, knows people in all the companies he works with. It’s a huge advantage for him.

These strategies have always worked for him before, and floating off into some intellectual ideal-system-design effort has never worked for him before. So when he says that he’s going to solve Medicare by hiring great managers and knowing all the right people, I don’t think this is some vapid way of avoiding the question. I think it’s the honest output of a mind that works very differently from mine. I’ve been designing ideal systems of government for the heck of it ever since I was old enough to realize what a government was. Trump is at serious risk of actually taking over a government, and such design still doesn’t appeal to him. The best he can do is say that other people are bad at governing, but he’s going to be good at governing, on account of his deal-making skill. I think he honestly believes this. It makes perfect sense in real estate, where some people are good businesspeople, others are bad businesspeople, and the goal is to game the system rather than change it. But in politics, it’s easy to interpret as authoritarianism – “Forget about policy issues, I’m just going to steamroll through this whole thing by being personally strong and talented.”

...

I said it before, but it bears repeating – this book has a really good ghostwriter. Yeah, it comes across as narcissistic; there’s probably no way to avoid that in a Trump autobiography. But Donald Trump’s interest in Donald Trump pales beside his blazing hot interest in the sheer awesomeness of hotel property deals. And part of me wants to say that people with obsessive interests in bizarre things are My Kind Of People.

But there’s still something alien about Trump here, even moreso than with the populist demagogue of the campaign trail. Trump the demagogue is attacked as anti-intellectual. I get anti-intellectualism because – like all isms – it’s an intellectual idea, and I tend to think in those terms. But Trump of the book is more a-intellectual, in the same way some people are amoral or asexual. The world is taken as a given. It contains deals. Some people make the deals well, and they are winners. Other people make the deals poorly, and they are losers. Trump does not need more than this. There will be no civilization of philosopher-Trumps asking where the first deal came from, or whether a deal is a deal only by virtue of its participation in some primordial deal beyond material existence. Trump’s world is so narrow it’s hard to fit your head inside it, so narrow that on contact with any wider world it seems strange and attenuated, a broken record of deals and connections and hirings expanding to fill the space available.
Now, the ideas from this article that really strike me:

1) Trump has almost no concept of politics, business, or interpersonal affairs in general, beyond the level of wheeling and dealing.Trump the real estate guy presumably understands the importance of building up networks of contacts (since much of his advantage in deals comes from who he knows and from hiring 'the best'). But he doesn't really have long term relationships with those contacts, independent of his wheeling and dealing, except insofar as he directly pays his contacts or receives money from them.

2) Trump has all this tremendous domain-specific knowledge, all of which is completely fucking irrelevant to what he does now as president. The ONLY parts of his entire career skill set that transfer to the White House are hucksterism and the style in which he 'makes deals.' This leaves him grossly deficient in basic presidential skills like 'don't get accused of obstruction of justice' and 'don't accidentally start any wars' and 'don't piss off the EU into saying 'screw you guys, we're going home.' '

3) Trump is accustomed to very 'short term' kinds of projects and plans. Sure, some of these real estate deals can take years to come to fruition, but they still have the hallmarks of a short term affair. You sit down with the players involved, you bullshit your way through any Catch-22s created by the complexity of the industry, you intimidate a few people into doing what you want to improve your profit margin, and it's over. No one in the process is someone you have to deal with in the next deal, except for your own employees. There's no recurring relationship with anyone else. Whereas in politics you have a recurring relationship with Congress, with foreign nations, and above all with the electorate itself. I suspect that in Trump's mental universe, once he won the election it was 'over.' He'd 'won.' The fact that the electorate still contains many people protesting him and opposing him and that he's actually probably more unpopular now than on election day? That's fighting dirty! Reality isn't supposed to do that to him!
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Thanas wrote:Also I love the fucking cheek in claiming that Syria should be Europe's problem. Remind me again which nation destabilized the whole region and continues to do so?
Oversimplified. I know people with an agenda love to put the blame entirely on the US, and I'm sure that I'll probably get flamed from multiple sources for disagreeing, but you and I both know that a lot of countries and factions have been fucking with that part of the world for a very long time. The US is the most prominent and powerful one in very recent history, but it is not the only responsible party.

That said, the idea that Syria is Europe's responsibility is absurd, and comes off as a self-serving attempt to pass the buck.

Syria is the world's problem now, regardless of who started it. It is a source of destabilization for the entire region and to some extent the world, source of a refugee crisis that has heavily impacted Europe, a threat to American allies, and a potential source of conflict between Russia and the US (or would be if we didn't have a Quisling as our President).

Pointing fingers and saying "You started it" is worse than pointless now. It affects everybody (to varying degrees), its everybody's problem and, frankly, everybody's moral responsibility to do something about it if they can, and if our alliances are to mean anything, then we should actually back up our allies rather than say "You deal with it."

I remember thinking, back when thousands of refugees fleeing (and drowning) by sea to Europe was something the news actually bothered to cover much, that the US Navy should be helping European navies and coast guards deal with the problem. You don't leave your allies hanging out to dry. Not if you want to keep having allies.

Which is what this whole topic is about, isn't it?
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by Thanas »

I am pretty sure the trouble in syria - especially with ISIS - would never have reached that extent had the US not destabilized Iraq. So yes, I am laying the blame for that (as in terms of which members of Nato played a significant role) squarely on the feet of the US (and the UK to a lesser degree).

But thanks for bringing up the refugee crisis, another topic where the US (including Obama) did jack shit to support its allies. (And before anybody chimes in with the token attempt to take tens of thousands after two years of vetting I invite them to look at how many people the US actually did take in compared to how many are still fleeing and how many have fled.)
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Re: RAR! Germany decides to develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Well, to be blunt, "the trouble in Syria" would also likely not have reached its current levels if Assad weren't a bloodthirsty monster, for example, or if Russia weren't propping him up.

Their are multiple factors behind any major historical event.

But within NATO, yes, its fair to put the bulk of the blame on the US, for a number of reasons.

You'll find no disagreement from me on the refugee crisis, though again, there are a lot of countries that deserve blame on that score (Germany being a sadly too-rare case of a country that actually acted in a fasion somewhat resembling human decency). That whole episode will be one of shame at our cowardice and callousness for future generations.

Not that any effort on Obama's part would have been likely to accomplish much. The Republicans would have blocked it, and the Trumpers would have used it as a rallying cry in the election.

Fuckers.

Edit: Where the US's blame for the refugee crisis is greatest is that we had more means to help than most, and chose not to. Europe, to some extent, has no choice but to deal with it. We are separated from the worst of it by an ocean, but we have wealth, and space, and money in abundance... and many, many bigots and cowards in positions of power. If America had taken the same number of people relative to its population, for example, as Germany... I think we'd have pretty much solved the problem (or its symptoms, at least, if not its root causes). Our government chose not to. I'm well aware of that.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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