Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?

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Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?

Post by The Romulan Republic »

I haven't shown Trump is a threat?

Well, there are literally hundreds of examples of everything from Trump openly advocating/condoning violence by his supporters, to him talking about using nukes, to the proposed ban on an entire religion entering the country, but this article covers some of the more notable points if you really aren't aware of all of this (its not as if Trump has made a secret of what a fucking scumbag and would-be despot he is). I took the liberty of bolding some of the key points.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc ... on/493244/
Just when it starts to seem that Donald Trump can’t surprise the jaded American media anymore, the Republican nominee manages to go just a little bit further.

During a press conference Wednesday morning that was bizarre even by Trump’s standards, he praised torture, said the Geneva Conventions were obsolete, contradicted his earlier position on a federal minimum wage, and told a reporter to “be quiet.”

But the strangest comments, easily, came when Trump was asked about allegations that Russian hackers had broken into the email of the Democratic National Convention—as well as further suggestions that Vladimir Putin’s regime might be trying to aid Trump, who has praised him at length. Trump cast doubt on Russia’s culpability, then said he hoped they had hacked Hillary Clinton’s messages while she was secretary of state.

“By the way, if they hacked, they probably have her 33,000 emails,” he said. “I hope they do. They probably have her 33,000 emails that she lost and deleted. Because you’d see some beauties there.” A few minutes later, he returned to the idea, speaking directly to the Kremlin: “I will tell you this: Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing.”[b/]


It was a stunning moment: a presidential nominee calling on a foreign power not only to hack his opponent and release what they found publicly, but hoping the Russians had stolen the emails of a top American official, perhaps including classified information.

Following Trump’s thread on Russia was practically impossible. On one hand, he portrayed the act of hacking into Democratic emails as “a total sign of disrespect,” yet in the next breath he pleaded with foreign powers to do just that. He said he was “not going to tell Putin what to do.” He also insisted, “I have nothing to do with Putin. I don’t know anything about him, other than he will respect me.”

Trump previously claimed a friendship with the Russian president. “I got to know him very well because we were both on 60 Minutes, we were stablemates,” he said. That was later revealed as a lie: Although both men were on the same episode of the show, they had never met.

Trump has given conflicting signals about his connections to Russia elsewhere, too. On Tuesday, a spokeswoman told Newsweek that he had no business with the country. In 2008, however, Donald Trump Jr. said that “Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets … We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia,” as The Washington Post reported.

Trump struck a balance Wednesday, insisting that Putin was a strong leader but tempering his praise. In one of the odder moments, Trump charged Putin with racism and then immediately said he hoped Putin would like him.

“Putin has said things over the last year that are really bad things, okay. He mentioned the ‘n’ word one time. I was shocked to hear him. You know what the ‘n’ word is, right? Total lack of respect for President Obama. Number one, he doesn’t like him. Number two, he doesn’t respect him. I think he’s going to respect your president if I’m elected, and I hope he likes me.”

He has less affection for France, where Islamist terrorists killed a priest on Tuesday. “I wouldn’t go to France,” Trump said. “I wouldn’t go to France, because France is no longer France.”


What if Clinton or Obama had wished that a foreign power had hacked a political opponent’s emails?

For an ordinary candidate, that would been extraordinary enough of a press conference. But Trump was barely getting started. NBC’s Katy Tur asked him point-blank whether he believed the Geneva Conventions were out of date.

“I think everything’s out of date. We have a whole new world,” Trump said. He then reaffirmed his support for torture, even though there’s no evidence it’s an effective intelligence-gathering tool. “I am a person that believes in enhanced interrogation, yes. And, by the way, it works.”

He launched into a tirade against Clinton’s running mate, Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia. But Trump repeatedly accused Kaine of trying to raise taxes while governor of New Jersey. He was eventually corrected; it was unclear what caused the slip, although some reporters noted the similarity between Kaine’s name and former Governor Tom Kean (whose name is pronounced “cane”) of New Jersey.

Trump’s flip-flop on his relationship with Putin was not the only reversal. In May, Trump said he wanted to abolish the federal minimum wage. On Wednesday, he gave a somewhat confusing answer, saying, “I would like to raise it to at least $10,” yet also suggesting that perhaps states rather than the federal government should do that.

Just for good measure, Trump threw in a shot at Obama, who is scheduled to speak at the Democratic National Convention Wednesday evening. “I think President Obama has been the most ignorant president in our history,” he said. “When he became president, he didn’t know a thing. And honestly, today he knows less.”

By the end, Wednesday’s press conference made Trump’s weird speech on Friday seem positively quotidian. These sorts of outbursts are the kinds of things that are disqualifying for most candidates. It’s hard to imagine what would happen if Clinton or Mitt Romney or Obama had publicly wished that a foreign power had hacked a political opponent’s emails—especially a cabinet secretary. But Trump’s supporters have been unbothered so far. As Trump gleefully pointed out during the press conference, several recent polls show him leading Clinton. Who knows what inspired Trump to spout off on Wednesday, though. With the DNC in full swing, perhaps he just couldn’t bear to surrender attention to the Democrats any longer.


So, fuck the Geneva Convention, fuck the federal minimum wage, and openly inviting a hostile foreign leader to interfere via presumably illegal means in a supposedly democratic election on his behalf (which is borderline treasonous). I would say that his stated positions reveal him to be a threat to basic human rights, the ability of working class Americans to feed themselves and their families, and to democracy and the rule of law.

I would also say that the fact that he would even say such things shows a profound lack of consistency, judgement, and respect for the democratic process.

Of course, you could argue "he doesn't really mean it" (and as some of the stuff in this article shows, he is admittedly the king of flip-floppers) or "he won't really be able to do it", but to that I would say three things in response to that:

1. The mere fact of someone getting elected on such an odious campaign would encourage, incite, and further legitimize as part of the mainstream the worst elements of our political culture.

2. The mere fact of his election would also cause a great deal of economic and political uncertainty internationally.

3. If the best case scenario is that a candidate is either lying or too incompetent/at odds with his own government to do any of the things he says he'll do, that really says it all.

As to your remarks about "security", it is not simply an abstract concept, much less an excuse on my part to justify despotism. I am talking about concrete things here. When shit hits the fan in international politics, ordinary people get hurt. And yes, you could truthfully say that that's true under the status quo as well, but simply flipping over the table doesn't usually do a lot to make peoples' lot better. Usually there's a lot of suffering and then things settle back to more or less the way they were before (or worse). Insecurity feeds peoples' darkest impulses- bigotry, xenophobia, a desire for a strong man to bring order and make them feel safe. There's enough of that shit going around as it is.

And I can't say that I trust Clinton either, in the sense of trusting her to always be honest or do the right thing. But I can say that I trust her to behave, for the most part, in a rational and competent manner and not to do pointlessly stupid things, if only out of a sense of self-interest. Clinton understands politics and government. Trump doesn't, or at any rate I don't think he gives two shits about responsible leadership. He has a crude understanding of how to manipulate the darker passions of a certain portion of the public and how to attention whore for the media, and does so for his own gain, and that's it.

A vote for Clinton is a vote for more of the same, perhaps. But a vote for Trump is a vote for driving off a cliff. As loathsome as the status quo is (hey, you're talking to someone who voted Bernie Sanders here, so I'm hardly a Clinton partisan save by temporary necessity), as loathsome as it is, their are worse things. I'll take standing still for four years over going backward at full speed.
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Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Sigh... I fucked up. I admit it. For some reason, I thought you were asking simply how Trump was a threat generally, rather than a threat to the stability/security of the world.

While you can make the case, as I did above, that the above would indirectly make him a threat due to the attitudes he incites and the concerns and uncertainty his election would cause around the world, I realize that something more direct is called for. So here goes:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/c ... /87243654/
SEOUL — Even thousands of miles from home, there is no escaping Donald Trump. I was in South Korea last week and found that, just as in the United States, the soon-to-be Republican nominee is a top topic of conversation.

Trump has been vocal in his belief that the U.S. gets “practically nothing” for defending South Korea from “that madman” — Kim Jong Un — who has received credit from Trump for his skill in consolidating power. “South Korea should pay us and pay us very substantially for protecting them,” Trump says, suggesting that if Seoul doesn’t pay up, he will remove U.S. troops. He has made similar threats to Japan, Germany and other U.S. allies.

Koreans are befuddled. They already pay handsomely to support the 28,500 U.S. troops in their country. South Korea contributes about 50% of the cost of their upkeep, more than $800 million a year, making it cheaper for the U.S. to keep forces there than at home.

Like other U.S. allies, South Koreans want to know whether Trump will win and, if he does, will he make good his threats? And — the most difficult question of all — does his rise presage a new era of isolationism in which Washington will abandon longtime friends such as South Korea, which has developed into an economic and political success story under U.S. protection?


USA TODAY
Trump can beat Clinton if GOP unites: Column

The bad news, I told them, is that if Trump won, he'd have the authority to pull out U.S. troops if he wanted. Congress would be unlikely to stop him, in spite of the obvious benefits from a U.S. troop presence that prevents the outbreak of another Korean war, keeps South Korea from going nuclear, and contributes to the overall stability of one of the most economically important regions in the world. The good news is that Trump is unlikely to win, I said, citing estimates by FiveThirtyEight.com that he has only a 36% chance of prevailing.

The further good news, if you value the U.S.-South Korea alliance, is that, in my view, relatively little of Trump’s appeal is due to his bashing our allies. His popularity can be explained by his celebrity, by his unconstrained and unconventional way of talking, and by his willingness to tap dark sentiments — racism and nativism — that other politicians shy away from.

No doubt Trump’s complaints about supposedly ungrateful allies also have some fans, but it’s not as if there was a mass movement calling for the pullout of U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula, where they have been stationed since the end of World War II. The last time a withdrawal from South Korea was seriously discussed was during the Carter administration. Even most Trump supporters aren’t outspoken on the issue. This is clearly a passion of the reality-TV star himself. If he loses in November, U.S. troops will remain in South Korea with little dissension.


USA TODAY
5 words that could sink Trump: Jill Lawrence

POLICING THE USA: A look at race, justice, media

Trump’s complaints about free trade, unfortunately, resonate more in spite of the consensus among economists that trade is an engine of prosperity. Hillary Clinton has joined him in opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade pact that many South Koreans hope to join. That her position is transparently insincere is scant comfort. The very fact that she now feels compelled to oppose it, after having backed TPP as secretary of State, shows just what a tough sell trade has become.

But is an American leadership role in the world also unpopular? Not according to the Pew Research Center. In a poll released in May, Pew found that the share of Americans who believe the U.S. does too much abroad has declined from 51% three years ago to 41% today, while 27% say the U.S. does too little. That change can be explained by the growing threat from the Islamic State terrorist group. At the same time, 55% of Americans support maintaining America’s status as the only military superpower, and 73% say they want the U.S. to play a leadership role in combination with other countries.

In short, most Americans are a lot less isolationist than Trump. Assuming he loses in November, the U.S. will continue to pursue an internationalist policy as it has done since 1945.

But I don’t blame South Koreans for being nervous. I’m nervous myself. There’s still an outside chance Trump could win because Clinton is such a weak candidate. As I told my South Korean hosts, if you’re worried about what Kim Jong Un could do with his 20 or so nuclear weapons, just imagine what Donald Trump could do if he got his hands on the thousands of weapons in the U.S. nuclear arsenal. The greatest threat to world peace now emanates not from Tehran or Pyongyang but from Trump Tower in midtown Manhattan.
While there are certainly points on which I am inclined to disagree with this article (its defence of the TPP, for example), I don't see how one could regard the prospect of a US President who praises the likes of Kim Jong Un, while threatening to unilaterally abandon allies or worse, extort money from them in exchange for protection, is anything other than a threat to global security.

What happens if North Korea, or another nation, sees Trump's election as a chance to get away with more aggressive and provocative actions? What happens if an ally, suddenly abandoned, panics and begins a rapid military build-up?

In any case, I don't see Trump as an isolationist. No, he's an extortionist. His idea of foreign policy bears an uncanny resemblance to a mafia protection racket.

Edit: And to be clear- I understand that many people feel, as you evidently do, that America should be less involved in other countries' affairs. I also understand that many people will criticize America for inaction.

But I would hope that we can at least agree that any such major realignment of foreign policy should be done carefully, deliberately, and with a full awareness of the potential consequences, not on the whims of a posturing buffoon with almost no political/governing experience, nor in an uncertain and contradictory manner which may lead to confusing and uncertainty on matters of global security.

And certainly not to extort money from our fucking allies.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?

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I'm not sure that there's a direct logical connection between Trump demanding from NATO or other US satellites to pay more for US troops, and an immediate threat to security. I think that it is way more dangerous to collect billions from defense contractors (as Hillary did) - he who profits from the production of weapons or other war-associated contracts is very likely to start a war, we've seen this with Cheney already and the bloodbath started back then rages till this day.

Trump is a colossal narcissist douchebag, but it seems a stretch to say he's going to provoke more war. Recently he said that Crimea is not worth fighting WWIII over it. As far as I'm concerned, that's a normal position aimed at defusing tensions with the second-largest nuclear power in the world - a promise of detente.
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Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?

Post by Flagg »

K. A. Pital wrote:I'm not sure that there's a direct logical connection between Trump demanding from NATO or other US satellites to pay more for US troops, and an immediate threat to security. I think that it is way more dangerous to collect billions from defense contractors (as Hillary did) - he who profits from the production of weapons or other war-associated contracts is very likely to start a war, we've seen this with Cheney already and the bloodbath started back then rages till this day.

Trump is a colossal narcissist douchebag, but it seems a stretch to say he's going to provoke more war. Recently he said that Crimea is not worth fighting WWIII over it. As far as I'm concerned, that's a normal position aimed at defusing tensions with the second-largest nuclear power in the world - a promise of detente.
That may be the only sane thing I've seen from his camp. The question is, who was he saying it to and when? Though I'm sure this will be used against him, which, meh. I haven't heard or read differently from the Clinton camp (which doesn't mean anything other than that, they could ne hardliners but why?). I think it's worth condemnation, but we still need to talk to and do business with the Russian Federation and as bad as I feel for Crimeans who want to be back in Ukraine, I'm not willing to be radioactive dust over it. :?
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Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Same here, to be honest.

I'm sure as hell not gung ho for NATO to get into a confrontation with Russia. But at the same time, I can't imagine the US suddenly throwing its allies under the bus, or worse being ambiguous in its position towards them, as anything other than potentially destabilizing. These sorts of decisions have to be made carefully, clearly, and with full consideration for the consequences, not on the whim of an idiot who may be working for/with Putin, and certainly not to extort money from allied countries.

Its not the idea of weakening NATO that inherently repulses me, its how and why Trump would do it.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: Could a Trump presidency lead to World War III?

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For example, here

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/d ... war-226522
"So when I said believe me, Russia’s not going into Ukraine, all right? They’re not going into Ukraine, the person said, but they’re already in Ukraine," Trump said, referring to Stephanopoulos. "I said, yeah, well [that] was two years ago. I mean, do you want to go back, do you want to have World War III to get it back? That was during Obama’s watch.”
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