Attacking Iran - RAR!

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Korto
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Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Korto »

Inspired by this thread.

You have been commissioned to work out a strategy to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. Your brief is to work out the method, the likelihood of success, and ALL COSTS, be they up-front, long-term, battle-losses, economic effects, diplomatic, long-term occupation, etc.
You are to consider Iran's likely responses, and the likely responses of other significant players such as Israel, Russia, and so on.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Purple »

What's my deadline? Can I just take my time to bribe and extort people until I have agents inside the facilities to sabotage them and either tward the project or cause Chernobyl 2.0?
It has become clear to me in the previous days that any attempts at reconciliation and explanation with the community here has failed. I have tried my best. I really have. I pored my heart out trying. But it was all for nothing.

You win. There, I have said it.

Now there is only one thing left to do. Let us see if I can sum up the strength needed to end things once and for all.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Korto »

Twelve months - your employer possibly believes in the Netanyahu timeline, that Iran will have nuclear weapons in one to two years.
While it's expected to be a military solution, it's NOT a requirement of your brief, so other options can be put forward. After all, all they can do is turn it down, they still have to pay you.
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Borgholio
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Borgholio »

The only way to effectively destroy Iran's nuclear capability is with the use of our own nuclear weapons. Many of their facilities are so heavily fortified, that the only thing that would smash them would be nuclear bunker busters. So with the extensive use of nuclear weapons, you better believe that other powers are going to intervene in some way.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Patroklos »

Borgholio wrote:The only way to effectively destroy Iran's nuclear capability is with the use of our own nuclear weapons. Many of their facilities are so heavily fortified, that the only thing that would smash them would be nuclear bunker busters. So with the extensive use of nuclear weapons, you better believe that other powers are going to intervene in some way.
No. Nuclear bunker busters would be the quickest and most loss preventing way to do it for our side, but there is no reason conventional arms can't crack every facility that exists anywhere worldwide regardless of country and protection. Even if you don't want to spend the time to destroy them outright you can still entomb such places.

There really isn't any way for Iran to stop a US led air campaign against them. We can haggle over how many dozen aircraft will be lost and if they pick off a destroyer or two off their coast but the end result is the same. The question is how much economic pain will we be willing to endure by both the physical loss of gulf oil supply and the perception of that loss even when the HOA is reopened, followed by whatever regional unrest will take place by the perception of a western attack on Iran as well as any positive action by Iran to instigate it by proxies or even their direct action.

No matter what happens, however, Israel should not be a participant.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Purple »

I still think that the best way to do it would be to provoke a Chernobyl event in order to make the whole thing extremely unwelcome to the people and leadership of Iran and hopefully they'll give up on their own.
It has become clear to me in the previous days that any attempts at reconciliation and explanation with the community here has failed. I have tried my best. I really have. I pored my heart out trying. But it was all for nothing.

You win. There, I have said it.

Now there is only one thing left to do. Let us see if I can sum up the strength needed to end things once and for all.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by LaCroix »

How do you want to provoke a Chernobyl without a working reactor?
A minute's thought suggests that the very idea of this is stupid. A more detailed examination raises the possibility that it might be an answer to the question "how could the Germans win the war after the US gets involved?" - Captain Seafort, in a thread proposing a 1942 'D-Day' in Quiberon Bay

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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Elheru Aran »

The concept isn't terrible, though. Some form of industrial accident involving radioactive material could make the whole affair quite odious among the general population. However orchestrating such a thing would be difficult, long term, and quite possibly exposed easily... all it takes is one nervous mook blurting out 'hey this guy was paying me to take the truck down a different road next week' to bust things wide open.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Purple »

It's a relatively low risk deal though. Best case scenario is an end to their atomic program without anyone that I care about getting hurt. The worst possible outcome is them getting some propaganda fuel as their people freak out knowing that I am out to try again and again until I succeed.
It has become clear to me in the previous days that any attempts at reconciliation and explanation with the community here has failed. I have tried my best. I really have. I pored my heart out trying. But it was all for nothing.

You win. There, I have said it.

Now there is only one thing left to do. Let us see if I can sum up the strength needed to end things once and for all.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Elheru Aran »

No, worse possible outcome is them declaring war on everybody around them and accelerating their weapons program while painting a target on your ass. They *already* have plenty of propaganda material given our soiled history in the region. A few CIA-type shenanigans they would just hang out in the wind as proof of our further perfidy and potentially use as justification to expand into, say, Iraq and Syria as an offensive against American interests under the guise of battling ISIS (which they may already be doing anyway).
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by LaCroix »

Purple wrote:It's a relatively low risk deal though. Best case scenario is an end to their atomic program without anyone that I care about getting hurt. The worst possible outcome is them getting some propaganda fuel as their people freak out knowing that I am out to try again and again until I succeed.
The diplomatic cost for that is immense. Especially as you still have no proof of them building bombs, only your suspicions, but you went ahead and created a nuclear disaster in their country. That's an act of war. Even worse - the US has just carried out a terror attack on civilians.

You WILL have severe diplomatic backlash. Russia, China, probably even the EU - creating a nuclear incident will not go down well with them. Worst case? Only your own veto will prevent a resolution in the UN against you, and the US will still be added to the list of terrorist countries, worldwide. You might face economic sanctions, like oil embargos from arab nations.

Basically - doing that can wipe out a lot of alliances.
And it's doubtful it would turn Iran away from whatever they do - either they know it was a deliberate attack, or they'll ignore it as a unfortunate mishap and the price of progress. It's not as if 3mile island or Chernobyl dissuaded anyone from continueing. They might even decide to pay same with same and maybe deliver some material to people willing to detonate dirty bombs on american soil.
A minute's thought suggests that the very idea of this is stupid. A more detailed examination raises the possibility that it might be an answer to the question "how could the Germans win the war after the US gets involved?" - Captain Seafort, in a thread proposing a 1942 'D-Day' in Quiberon Bay

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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Eulogy »

Where is Iran getting their fissile material from? Do they already have a lot of it stored, or are they still buying it? Because you can't have a nuclear program without nuclear material; can we not simply buy out Iran's would-be supply?
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Darth Tanner »

Buy out Russia? Their economy might be in the shitter but not sure they have put the for sale sign up just yet.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by bilateralrope »

I don't think Eulogy is saying you buy out Russia. Just all the fissile material from whomever is willing to sell to Iran.

I can see some possible problems with that plan, problems I am in no position to evaluate:
- There is an existing agreement to supply Iran for a while. One the US can not get the seller to break.
- Bidding war. For this plan to work the US needs to buy all of it. Will Iran be able to offer a higher price per kg for the amount Iran wants ?
- The amount of fissile material for sale worldwide suddenly increases as the bidding war put the price up to a value where they want to mine it. Because they know that if the US doesn't buy it, Iran will.
- Someone decides that price isn't the only factor in deciding to sell to the US or Iran. I have no idea which countries are in a position to sell any.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Darth Tanner »

Something tells me Russia and Kazakhstan are not going to let America dictate where their uranium heads to, current uranium prices are pretty depressed at the moment so America trying to buy Iran out of the market is simply not going to work when doing so would also hurt everyone else trying to buy uranium on the open market.

Also Putin would likely give Iran some uranium for free just to piss off the west!
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by mr friendly guy »

According to the world nuclear association

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Count ... -G-N/Iran/
Uranium Resources and Mining
In the early 1980s Iran purchased 450 tonnes of uranium (531 t U3O8) from South Africa. Some 366 t of this was subsequently converted to UF6 at Esfahan. This is the main, and practically the only, material being used in Iran's enrichment plants.
Iran has very small reported uranium resources, all in a high cost category, about one-third as reasonably assured and two-thirds as inferred resources. It is reported to have significant levels of molybdenum and other impurities which create difficulties in enrichment. AEOI is responsible for uranium exploration, mining and treatment. Most exploration is in central Iran.
The only mining and milling so far is at Gachin/Gchine, near the port of Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf, in Hormozgan province. The ore is in surficial salt plugs at 0.20 %U grade, accessed by open pit. The Bandar Abbas Uranium Production Plant (BUPP) began production from Gachin ore in 2006, and operations continue, to produce about 12 tU/yr with acid leaching. This is delivered to the conversion plant at Isfahan.
An underground mine has been developed at Saghand in the central desert region of Yazd province, and AEOI announced commencement of production there in April 2013. Resources of 900 tU at 0.055% U are quoted. The associated Ardakan mill about 75 km west of Saghand is expected to produce 58 tU/yr from the higher-grade ore (av 0.05%) with acid leaching, while lower grade material (0.01 to 0.03%) will be heap leached at site.
In February 2013 AEOI announced that uranium resources had increased to 4000 tU from 1527 tonnes. No details were given.
So it seems like they are making do with what they already have.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Purple »

You all assume I am just going to send someone with full CIA papers to bribe the truck driver. These sort of things can easily be made untraceable by things such as using many proxies or islamic terrorists. Use your imagination people.
It has become clear to me in the previous days that any attempts at reconciliation and explanation with the community here has failed. I have tried my best. I really have. I pored my heart out trying. But it was all for nothing.

You win. There, I have said it.

Now there is only one thing left to do. Let us see if I can sum up the strength needed to end things once and for all.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by mr friendly guy »

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/04 ... -iran.html
Russia Lifts Ban on Delivery of S-300 Missiles to Iran
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESSAPRIL 13, 2015, 12:56 P.M. E.D.T.

MOSCOW — President Vladimir Putin on Monday sanctioned the delivery of a highly capable Russian air defense missile system to Iran, a game changer move that would significantly bolster the Islamic republic's military capability and fuel Israel's concerns.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry objected to Moscow's decision in a phone call to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and the White House indicated the move could endanger plans to ultimately lift sanctions on Iran as part of a proposed nuclear deal.
For our military experts, how does this change the equation?
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Thanas »

Purple wrote:You all assume I am just going to send someone with full CIA papers to bribe the truck driver. These sort of things can easily be made untraceable by things such as using many proxies or islamic terrorists. Use your imagination people.
And you might want to start using your brain, provided you have one.

The USA has used islamic terrorists inside Iran already to bomb the Iranian scientists. Guess what? Iran found out. Because there is no way to keep such things hidden forever if the opponent is at least somewhat competent and Iran is that.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by LaCroix »

mr friendly guy wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/04 ... -iran.html
Russia Lifts Ban on Delivery of S-300 Missiles to Iran
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESSAPRIL 13, 2015, 12:56 P.M. E.D.T.

MOSCOW — President Vladimir Putin on Monday sanctioned the delivery of a highly capable Russian air defense missile system to Iran, a game changer move that would significantly bolster the Islamic republic's military capability and fuel Israel's concerns.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry objected to Moscow's decision in a phone call to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and the White House indicated the move could endanger plans to ultimately lift sanctions on Iran as part of a proposed nuclear deal.
For our military experts, how does this change the equation?
The limided bombing campaign just became a lot less limited. I've heard unit price tag for S300 are 120 million, so we're looking at 5 or 6 systems delivered. (Couldn't find info on the contract due to the latest news swamping the search results.) This is quite an update to their capabilities.
A minute's thought suggests that the very idea of this is stupid. A more detailed examination raises the possibility that it might be an answer to the question "how could the Germans win the war after the US gets involved?" - Captain Seafort, in a thread proposing a 1942 'D-Day' in Quiberon Bay

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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Starglider »

Darth Tanner wrote:Also Putin would likely give Iran some uranium for free just to piss off the west!
That would be a violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which Russia would not do lightly. Aside from the diplomatic bad will it would generate from most of the UN, taking the brakes off nuclear proliferation is ultimately bad for nearly everyone including Russia.

I would think Iran would be more likely to receive materials from Pakistan; there are unconfirmed but highly plausible reports that Iran has already received significant technical assistance.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Patroklos »

mr friendly guy wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/04 ... -iran.html
Russia Lifts Ban on Delivery of S-300 Missiles to Iran
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESSAPRIL 13, 2015, 12:56 P.M. E.D.T.

MOSCOW — President Vladimir Putin on Monday sanctioned the delivery of a highly capable Russian air defense missile system to Iran, a game changer move that would significantly bolster the Islamic republic's military capability and fuel Israel's concerns.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry objected to Moscow's decision in a phone call to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and the White House indicated the move could endanger plans to ultimately lift sanctions on Iran as part of a proposed nuclear deal.
For our military experts, how does this change the equation?
We have to use a few more TLAMs. Seriously though there is no way Iran will every have any level of air defense that would make it able to stop strike from someone like the US or even Russia or China (if they were a neighbor like Russia). This will mean a few more strike packages, perhaps a few more days of softening up and maybe a few more planes lost, but it is pretty much irrelevant overall when we are talking about accomplishing something as limited as destroying a handful of sites no matter how well protected they are.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Sea Skimmer »

LaCroix wrote: The limided bombing campaign just became a lot less limited. I've heard unit price tag for S300 are 120 million, so we're looking at 5 or 6 systems delivered. (Couldn't find info on the contract due to the latest news swamping the search results.) This is quite an update to their capabilities.
The original deal Russia pulled the plug on was about 800 million for four complete fire units and one set of missiles plus training and support. It is unlikely that a larger number of fire units would be bought this time, at least not all at once.

RUMINT has surfaced that this might be a sale of the army pattern S-300V, possibly out of existing Russian stock as its no longer series manufactured but is being extensively remanufactured. The S-300PMU1 Iran originally ordered isn't made anymore, and the Russians may not want to sell the much more capable PMU2 or PMU3, the later is also called S-400. The Iranians will certainly attempt to reverse engineer the system once supplied, and have already done work with a limited number of system pieces they bought from Belarus not amounting to an operational capability.

S-300V is actually a lot more advanced in a lot of ways then the PVO series designs and has built in ABM capability, which may now interest Iran given Saudi IRBMs and possible attack by Israeli ballistic systems.
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Re: Attacking Iran - RAR!

Post by Darth Tanner »

Starglider wrote:
Darth Tanner wrote:Also Putin would likely give Iran some uranium for free just to piss off the west!
That would be a violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
How so? Uranium is traded for civil power generation or research purposes all the time and Iran is a NPT signatory.... maybe not one in good standing with America but a signatory none the less.
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