Hurricane IKE Discussion Thread

Post by **Surlethe** » 2008-09-04 01:47pm

I heard earlier that Ike had been upgraded to a Cat 3. In a fit of curiosity, I just now visited NOAA's National Hurricane Watch Center (link), and Ike is apparently a Category 4, with a whole bunch of warm water to cross before it starts to caress the southeastern US. It is expected to weaken a little bit before it hits the Bahamas, but it will be a hurricane for at least the next five days.

J · Post by J » 2008-09-04 01:57pm

Looks to be weakening a fair bit in the last few hours judging by the IR and water vapour pictures. The west side is getting kinda ragged and it's lost the near perfect symmetry it had early this morning, seems like the shear is already starting to affect it. Model runs are still all over the place though so what happens next is still anyone's guess.

Mayabird · Post by **Mayabird** » 2008-09-06 12:41am

Current computer models show Ike skimming under Florida and along or through Cuba and then going into the Gulf of Mexico. Currently a Cat 3 but it could go back to 4 in the next couple days.

CJvR · Post by **CJvR** » 2008-09-06 02:46pm

Seems like Hurricanes goes to New Orleans this year.

chitoryu12 · Post by **chitoryu12** » 2008-09-06 03:02pm

My physics teacher suggested that it may not get up to Cat 4 strength because Hanna churned up a lot of cold water to the top on its way through, and Ike is on a similar path for some of it. However, it may still become a 4 in the Gulf.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2008-09-06 06:20pm

Ike's hit Cat. 4.

Col. Crackpot · Post by **Col. Crackpot** » 2008-09-06 07:09pm

Tropical Storm warning! yay!

I just had to waste my afternoon securing my yard. God forbid the kids toys get put away after they use them. Anywho, yard secured, basement secured, batteries just in case. Gimme your worst Hanna!

Mayabird · Post by **Mayabird** » 2008-09-06 09:22pm

That's the second time Ike was rapidly intensified. The first time it became a Cat 4, it had been Cat 1 the previous day, and this time it was a 2 and became a 4 within hours.

Cuba is going to get pounded. The tracks go all over the place past Cuba, so no good predictions what Ike will do afterwards.

aerius · Post by **aerius** » 2008-09-06 09:28pm

The good news is it's a small hurricane so it should weaken fairly quickly once it hits land.

GrandMasterTerwynn · Post by **GrandMasterTerwynn** » 2008-09-06 09:33pm

Mayabird wrote:That's the second time Ike was rapidly intensified. The first time it became a Cat 4, it had been Cat 1 the previous day, and this time it was a 2 and became a 4 within hours.

Cuba is going to get pounded. The tracks go all over the place past Cuba, so no good predictions what Ike will do afterwards.

Never mind Cuba, Haiti is just being raped this season. According to the BBC, over 500 people have died as a result of Hanna in Haiti, and they're going to get more rain from Ike.

And that track they've got for Ike looks like a big "Fuck you" to Louisiana.

CJvR · Post by **CJvR** » 2008-09-07 01:48pm

Mayabird wrote:Cuba is going to get pounded. The tracks go all over the place past Cuba, so no good predictions what Ike will do afterwards.

Looks like a USAF demolishion plan from the 1950 - operation blow Cuba off the map!

Lonestar · Post by **Lonestar** » 2008-09-07 03:34pm

Well, I had work-related plans to fly into Panama City tomorrow...I wonder if I'll have to reschedule.

Mayabird · Post by **Mayabird** » 2008-09-08 09:15pm

Lonestar wrote:Well, I had work-related plans to fly into Panama City tomorrow...I wonder if I'll have to reschedule.

Looks like not. The current computer model tracks have Ike going towards southern Texas. But then again, it still might change. There's still more of Cuba to go, and it looks like the hurricane's going straight towards Havana.

Adrian Laguna · Post by **Adrian Laguna** » 2008-09-08 11:11pm

I wouldn't worry about Cuba, Cubans are experts at handling hurricanes. They have very good evacuation and disaster handling procedures, from sheer brutal experience more than anything else. They also have the advantage of having a totalitarian government that simply needs to tell the people to move and they all move. On top of that they tend to build their houses fairly sturdy and with hurricanes in mind, it's all brick, mortar, and concrete. In the US wooden homes abound, in Florida the construction codes didn't require houses to have exterior walls made from brick until after Hurricane Andrew in '92.

The Spartan · Post by **The Spartan** » 2008-09-11 08:29am

They're ordering mandatory evacuations for the west side of Galveston Island as well as parts of Brazoria County from what I heard on the radio. There's also going to be a press conference any minute now regarding evacuations, emergency services, shelters plus other things like sporting events.

Also the son of a bitch has turned back towards Houston and, currently, looks like it's going to hit somewhere between Corpus Christi and us. I'm not overly concerned about myself or family since we all live on the north and west side of town, so while we'll get some heavy rains and winds the flooding is unlikely to be a problem for any of us. Especially me since I live right next to Addicks Reservoir, which is a dry one meant to absorb exactly this sort of thing. Now the folks right in the path are a different story, but there's little, currently, I can do to help them.

And to be safe, I've stocked up on bottled water and canned/dry food so that if the power goes down I'll at least have clean water and something to eat.

Death from the Sea · Post by **Death from the Sea** » 2008-09-11 01:44pm

Man, the way people are acting around here is down right comical. There have already been fights over cutting in line to get gas or buy supplies/food at the store. Some people have not prepared claiming that it is still going to turn and miss the Houston area and we will get nothing. Others are freaking out and buying everything in sight. I have seen very few calm people that are prepared for the worst but not freaking out.

You would think that it is the end of days or something.

And this is in the Houston area, where right now we are not projected to get the brunt of the storm.

aerius · Post by **aerius** » 2008-09-11 03:01pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KHGX.shtml

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL EXCEED
5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
ALONG THE SHORELINES OF THE BAYS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
WATER LEVELS WILL RISE RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS THE
STORM SURGE MOVES IN WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15
MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME
OF THESE VALUES.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA AND GALVESTON BAYS...15 TO 20 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING
GALVESTON ISLAND...12 TO 16 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING
EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL
FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES
LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET
FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY
FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH
MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK
CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

Post by **Broomstick** » 2008-09-11 09:25pm

One does not often see "will face certain death" from the rather dry forecasts of NOAA.

This sounds very bad.

On edit: My Other Half just referred to this thing as "Hurricane YIKES!"

Marko Dash · Post by **Marko Dash** » 2008-09-11 09:34pm

if Eisenhower had been president during the Cuban missile crisis instead of Kennedy, this would be very ironic.

The Spartan · Post by **The Spartan** » 2008-09-12 07:44am

The area I live in is part of the county that's been asked to "shelter in place." Which is what I intend to do. No need for me to clog up the freeways further if they don't think I need to evacuate and where my home is located is a good position to avoid flooding. I'm a little concerned about wind damage and even more so about tornadoes forming, but I'm going to hunker down and catch up on some house chores and my reading.

I'm just nervous about power loss. It's not going to kill me or anything, just be inconvenient but still, not knowing when it's going to happen or for how long is the kind of thing that drives me right up the wall. And they've said that we will lose power this weekend.

In any event, I have plenty of flashlight batteries, clean water and non-perishable food, candles too, so unless my house blows down, I'm good to go.

The Spartan · Post by **The Spartan** » 2008-09-12 09:41am

I just looked at the projected path and it looks like the son of a bitch is turning right for the ship channel. That was going to get hit one way or the other but now it looks like the eye is going to pass right over the channel and the city.

I doubt this will be Katrina bad, but still, bad things, man.

Phantasee · Post by **Phantasee** » 2008-09-12 10:31am

Stay safe, Spartan. Don't be afraid to stick the looters with your spear!

The Spartan · Post by **The Spartan** » 2008-09-12 10:34am

Phantasee wrote:Stay safe, Spartan. Don't be afraid to stick the looters with your spear!

I will.

Post by **Broomstick** » 2008-09-12 12:10pm

Looks like Galveston was already having flooding this morning.

J · Post by J » 2008-09-12 01:19pm

Uh-oh.

linky

Stalled freighter faces Ike off Galveston

HOUSTON — Twenty-two men aboard a 584-foot freighter adrift in the Gulf of Mexico faced riding out Hurricane Ike if the situation remained too dangerous for a rescue attempt, the Coast Guard said Friday.

Chief Petty Officer Mike O'Berry initially said stormy seas would prevent Coast Guard aircraft or vessels from reaching the ship about 90 miles southeast of Galveston. Category 2 Ike's 105-mph winds could cause 50-foot waves, the Coast Guard said.

But by mid-morning Friday, Petty Officer Tom Atkeson said the Coast Guard was looking at the range of the assets it had to safely get to the vessel to rescue the crew, if necessary.

"The limitations were what we had in the area at the time. Now we're looking at seeing what we can get out there, possibly in a range to assist them," Atkeson said. He did not elaborate on what aircraft the Coast Guard would need.

The Coast Guard is in constant communication with the ship via Marine radio, said Atkeson, who identified the vessel as the Antalina.

The freighter is registered out of Cyprus and owned by Perovo Shipping Ltd. The freighter's operator is TEO Shipping Corp., according to Atkeson.

There was no indication that the ship was taking on water, Atkeson said.

"We don't have any information from the crew that that's the case," Atkeson told The Associated Press. "They've lost propulsion and steering" and were drifting southwest.

The Coast Guard at 4:17 a.m. CDT Friday received a radio distress call from the vessel.

Ike's eye was forecast to strike somewhere near Galveston late Friday, but the massive system was already buffeting Texas and Louisiana.

The National Weather Service warned residents of smaller structures on Galveston they could "face certain death" if they ignored an order to evacuate; most had complied.

Not good. Really not good. If it's an oil tanker and I really hope it isn't, it might break up and dump oil all over the Gulf.