A Modern Tunguska In Jerusalem (RAR)

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A Modern Tunguska In Jerusalem (RAR)

Post by Flagg »

It's sometime in the very near future and a Tunguska level event takes place directly over Jerusalem, leveling most of the city, including the Dome of the Rock. This does not trigger an immediate war as it is acknowledged by all sides as a natural disaster.

So what happens next? The fundies on all sides go batshit, I'm sure. The Jews will want to rebuild their temple, and the American fundtards will be calling it the end times. But what else, other than that?
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Post by The Grim Squeaker »

Well, what would be the area of effect and destruction caused? (the area of Jerusalem is very hilly, and mildly mountainous, but such a blast would would marginalize the mitigating effects of terrain).
Casualty estimaes? AOF? Area where infrastructure would be destroyed?
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Post by Flagg »

We pissing our pants yet?
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Post by Buddha »

The event brings out the latent qi in the enviroment causing widespread development of powers? Nothing but damage to buildings? Most likely.
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Post by Coyote »

It is accepted in Judaism that no one has the right to rebuild the Temple until the Messiah comes and say to make it so. The destruction of Jerusalem is not foretold in any of the prophesies about the Messiah-- there is a sequence of events that must happen first, and a Tunguska is not one of them. Plus, it is said that all realize it to be a natural disaster.

Perhaps a few Jews would see it as some sort of sign, but for the most part the Jewish Rabbinate and most Jewish people would not be inclined to go into a religious mouth-frothing hysteria... there would be hysteria, but it would be for the humanitarian disaster: loss of lives, property, and etc like during Katrina in the US.

Christian Fundies and many Muslims would definitely see a religious angle to it, and probably go batshit insane, and it would be a race to see who got their first to reclaim the area for themselves. The Israeli government would be able to get boots on the ground within a couple hours-- so the real question would be if they would need to hold the area by force as shocked and disoriented Muslims nearby decided to make a grab for it.

Would the local Muslims try to use this to bust a move? Who knows; they may be to wigged out, or figure it's not worth it. Planeloads of Christian Fundies from the West would probably come to try to establish themselves at ground zero for the rebuilding, but would the Israelis let them in?

Israel may or may not let in select groups of humanitarian & disaster-relief personnel, but they'd have security tighter than a nervous choirboy's spinchter at the Vatican.
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Post by hongi »

Coyote wrote:It is accepted in Judaism that no one has the right to rebuild the Temple until the Messiah comes and say to make it so. The destruction of Jerusalem is not foretold in any of the prophesies about the Messiah-- there is a sequence of events that must happen first, and a Tunguska is not one of them. Plus, it is said that all realize it to be a natural disaster.

Perhaps a few Jews would see it as some sort of sign, but for the most part the Jewish Rabbinate and most Jewish people would not be inclined to go into a religious mouth-frothing hysteria... there would be hysteria, but it would be for the humanitarian disaster: loss of lives, property, and etc like during Katrina in the US.
For the most part, most Jews believe that the Messiah will come and help rebuild the Temple, but there are a few who believe that they should build it now, and in fact they've been gathering supplies to prepare for this event - minority fundies for sure, but they'll be pushing hard for the construction after this event, and I wouldn't discount many observant Jews seeing the destruction of the Dome of the Rock and Al-Aqsa mosque as a sign from God. The destruction of Jerusalem can be waved away as a punishment from God or spiritual cleansing before the approaching Messianic age.

Jews aren't allowed on the Temple Mount, but I guess Israel will ignore the rabbinical rulings to secure the area.
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Post by Kanastrous »

I have trouble with the premise that all interested parties will agree that a natural disaster took place. If I suppose that Arab politicians, scholars, clergy and media all publicly confirm the natural cause of the disaster, will a population conditioned with conspiracy stories (true and false) be able to just accept that? Will the Muslim 'street' buy natural disaster when it's historically been prone to interpreting and believing most everything through the lens of Israeli perfidy? By discarding the probability that someone would grab the event and use it as cause around which to raise mayhem, I so alter my understanding of the Islamic world's apparent priorities that I don't know what to guess Muslims might decide to do, next.

I am not criticising the OP, at all. I am just admitting that I'm stumped.

Congratulations, I guess.

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Post by Flagg »

Kanastrous wrote:I have trouble with the premise that all interested parties will agree that a natural disaster took place. If I suppose that Arab politicians, scholars, clergy and media all publicly confirm the natural cause of the disaster, will a population conditioned with conspiracy stories (true and false) be able to just accept that? Will the Muslim 'street' buy natural disaster when it's historically been prone to interpreting and believing most everything through the lens of Israeli perfidy? By discarding the probability that someone would grab the event and use it as cause around which to raise mayhem, I so alter my understanding of the Islamic world's apparent priorities that I don't know what to guess Muslims might decide to do, next.
Yeah, I should have made clear that everyone that matters acknowledges it as a natural disaster. There will always be some fringers who think the US or Israel nuked it or it was the finger of God or some shit.
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Post by Eleventh Century Remnant »

Interesting; Google Earth shows nothing but terrain features in Israel, no roads, no settlements, nothing.
Still, given the yield estimates for Tunguska, outer estimates five to thirty-five megatons with ten to fifteen most probable, that's a very large chunk of the middle of Israel- and a majority of the west bank of the Jordan- gone. Million-plus dead, another two or three million injured, maybe? Seven hundred thousand in Jerusalem itself, and most of the population of the west bank- it seems that a majority of the dead would be Muslim.

Most of the fallout, I reckon too, would be religious. I have difficulty dirregarding the lunatic fringe. Whatever happened, any kind of disaster in that religiously sensitive an area is going to have unpleasant consequences.
Still, overheated responses aside, this would be one of the worst natural disasters on record, and I doubt that anyone sane would be too picky about who they accepted help from after that.

Infrastructure; most of the Israeli settlements on the coast- Ashkelon, Ashdod, Tel Aviv- will become a glazier's paradise, but should be out of the serious damage radius. I'll let someone who knows more about what's actually there pass comment on Jordan and the west bank.
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

Eleventh Century Remnant wrote:Interesting; Google Earth shows nothing but terrain features in Israel, no roads, no settlements, nothing.
Umm check you layers then because they sure as shit have tons of stuff marked in Isreali, including the location of the nations top secret Jericho nuclear missile base.
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Post by hongi »

outer estimates five to thirty-five megatons with ten to fifteen most probable, that's a very large chunk of the middle of Israel- and a majority of the west bank of the Jordan- gone.
JFYI, the latest figure is 3-5 megatons.
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Post by Eleventh Century Remnant »

Ah. Interesting stuff; the fireball retains the momentum of the asteroid, it can still impact well after it's ceased to be a solid object, so you actually get an airburst where the fireball continues on to ground?

Nasty. Obvious once it's pointed out, I just didn't think of that but it makes sense now. That does mean, as the linked article suggests, smaller asteroids do more damage at- well, transfer more energy to- ground level and are likely to be more of a threat than previously thought.

So there would be much more severe and localised damage at the point of impact, less blast area. The proportion of dead to injured higher, radius of destruction and total casualties lower. Good news for the West Bank- not so good for Jerusalem itself.

Oh, yes, SeaSkimmer, sorry, I was using the wrong app. GoogleMaps instead of GoogleEarth proper. D'oh. Ended up digging out an old paper atlas, in the end.
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Post by CJvR »

A smaller piece of iron ore that turns the mount into a lake while not blasting half of Israel off the map would be better. Otherwise It would be hard to keep the missiles from flying.

Removing the fundies favorite plaything is IMPO a good idea, no doubt they will find something else to fight over but that damn rock have caused quite enough problems throughout history.
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