(yet another) Timeswap RAR : 2012's DPRK in 1900

[Rabid]

Because I can :

By act of plot, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, aka North Korea, at the date of this post is sent back to the same day in the year 1900. The same portion of territory from 1900 takes its place in 2012.

What happens ?

Wikipedia's History of Korea


Special rule : All ships in the DPRK's Exclusive Economic Zone are swapped as well.

[R.O.A]

It will be a lot harder, if not impossible for Japan to take over Korea, at least in the short term. North Korea will likely take over South Korea. Things will likely start to fall apart within a few months if North Korea does not manage to find a new source of food, since it wont be supplied by China anymore.

[Sea Skimmer]

I think they could get enough food by demanding tribute in exchange for not sinking everyone's warships with a freighter armed with Silkworm missiles, automatic cannon and homing torpedoes sailing to Europe. This would also be a way to get oil, which is a serious problem too.

[Rabid]

IF North Korea managed to take over South Korea, would it be able to establish an adequate food-supply for the peninsula before all the bunkers stocking emergency food rations ran dry ?

Elements of the equation :

- Estimated size of North Korea's stock of food supplies relative to its population.
- Estimated duration/likeliness of success of a North Korean invasion/takeover of the South
- Estimated duration/likeliness of success of reforming the South's agriculture to meet the Peninsula's needs (taking into account rationing in both the North and the South).


Other question :

I gather Manchuria and East-Russia have a lot of oil. What would be the likeliness of seeing the DPRK trying a takeover of these territories, and what would be the odds of seeing them successful in such endeavors ?
Alternatively, as far as petrol goes, what of Coal ?

[Sea Skimmer]

Likeliness of success? Modern North Korea could defeat all the 1900 armies of Europe, at the same time, using a fraction of its forces Southern Korea likely couldn't meet food needs, because of lack of transportation if nothing else, but the North Koreans could get plenty of food supplies out of the Yangtze valley after seizing Shanghai.

Oil in Manchuria and Siberia is hard to access, and North Korea has little development in this field. The easiest thing to do would be to send what few ships they have down to Sumatra and seize the oil fields that already existed in 1900. I think some other fields had also come online in that region by 1900, but not a huge amount. Coal the North Koreans could get from Manchuria, but they'll need vast amounts of slave labor to even start to exploit it and this will take serious time.

[Rabid]

What is the state of the North Korean Navy ? Would it be able to successfully maintain & protect from foreign interferences a sealane from its home territories to Sumatra ?

What are its shipbuilding capabilities ? Could it produce enough freighters & escorts to establish a credible merchant navy that wouldn't get sunk by the regional powers ?


How much steel can North Korea produce ?


RAR question : knowing the "psychology" of the North Korean leadership, how would they interact with their neighbors ? I think its pretty much a given that they will be trying to (re-)unite the Korean peninsula, but further than that ? Would they try to expand their borders, directly annexing territories ? Would they try to colonize/place under "protectorate" status some of their neighbors ? How would they interact with the Imperial Japan of the time ?
Would they try and create their own Great Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere or something like that ?

[Irbis]

What is the state of the North Korean Navy ? Would it be able to successfully maintain & protect from foreign interferences a sealane from its home territories to Sumatra ?

Korean People's Army Air Force and its 1500+ planes would quickly explain to anyone stupid enough to sail within 1000 km of Korea why it's Stupid Idea™. Even with most of them grounded to save fuel, what they have is enough to sink whole Royal Navy in an afternoon.

What are its shipbuilding capabilities ? Could it produce enough freighters & escorts to establish a credible merchant navy that wouldn't get sunk by the regional powers ?

Korean People's Navy has about 70 submarines, including 20+ long range ones capable of sinking whole squadron of capital ships in one salvo, and that's long before Aboukir/Hogue/Cressy demonstrated why sailing in straight line is Bad Idea™. Blue navy is limited to handful of ships, but then again, every Korean frigate can battle pre-Dreadnought battleship one on one and win.

How much steel can North Korea produce ?

*shrug* metallurgy is their primary engine export, so probably a large amount. The thing is, it might be shithole in today's terms, but in 1900, it will be among largest and the most advanced economy in the world, easily capable of getting by by selling crappiest goods as ultra-high tech luxury items Remember, it's 1900, that 60 year old car engine they're producing? Now, it's a marvel of engineering that won't be around for 50 more years, decades more advanced than top of the line contemporaries.

That said, we will not see invasion of Japan or Sumatra, simply because Korea doesn't have capability to do that. They might try buying some islands, or arrange limited land grab, but at best we'll see annexing of South Korea and puppeting of Manchuria, it's about the most North Koreans can do with their army. Then, IMHO, limited, mostly peaceful colonialism and trade with Tzarist Russia and Holland.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I am fairly sure that they would conquer not merely South Korea but Manchuria, the Russian far East, and Japan, as peoples who can be "koreanized" with enough ruthless slaughter of undesirables and those who resist.