Hurricane IKE Discussion Thread

[Companion Cube]

Uh-oh.

According to an update on the same site, the ship is carrying petroleum coke rather than oil. I'm not a chemist, but since it's a solid there'll presumably be a lesser degree of environmental damage if the ship goes down.

[Damaramu]

I'm in the Galleria area of Houston (west Houston). So far, so good. The Mrs. and I walked across the street to Target and picked up a few last minute things to tide us over for the weekend.

Canned soup section was ransacked. Houstonians apparently don't like Clam Chowder or Italian soups. We picked up the remaining stock of Chicken Gumbo (about 5 cans).

Chips section: gone. Except for the Target branded stuff which was pratically untouched.

At any rate, we're ready for whatever...but I don't think we're going to see much action in this part of town save for some power outages.

[Broomstick]

The Coast Guard was not able to pull any of the crew off that freighter. They'll have to ride out the storm.

Eight or so people were pulled off a barrier island earlier today, apparently having second thoughts about riding the storm out. Idiots. Fucking idiots.

They're estimating 80-90% of Galveston is evacuated. Emergency services are preparing to hunker down in a building built to withstand major hurricanes, along with the CNN newscrews (and probably other insane journalist types0.

Gotta wonder about that remaining 10% - the 1900 Galveston hurricane is believed to have killed 6,000 people. Storm surge could reach 6.5-7 meters on an island most just barely over 1 meter above sea level over most of its area.

Flooding may reach as far as the outskirts of Houston.

[J]

The Coast Guard was not able to pull any of the crew off that freighter. They'll have to ride out the storm.

The latest reports say they've drifted into the southern half of the storm so they should be out of the woods as the hurricane moves on.

I found a nice animation on another board which shows the effects of the estimated storm surge. It's not good. This is probably what the NWS had in mind when they mentioned "complete inundation" and "certain death".

http://3dnature.com/anim/Galveston_TX-20ft-high.mp4

[Admiral Valdemar]

Uh... wow.

[Phantasee]

Holy fucking shit. Is that a 3D topographic map they used to model it?

[Broomstick]

In 1900 survivors reported that the entire island of Galveston went under the waves, only the tops of taller buildings were above the water. Scary as hell.

Hence, the warning "get out or die".

[aerius]

It gets worse. Ike has formed an eye and convection has exploded on the west & SW of the eye. Recon flights report falling pressures in the eye, it's down to 949mb and the storm looks like it's still organizing and strengthening. It's also turned to a more westerly track so Galveston is now going to get slammed with the right side of the eyewall if Ike stays on its present course.

[Broomstick]

They DID tell people to get out of the way.

With the party of folks rescued earlier my Other Half said "Let 'em drown - would be a lesson to others." Well, that's the problem, you always have idiots who place their property above their lives, or whatever.

I just hope the people who DO have business on Galveston - the emergency personnel and such - get through the storm and flood alright.

[aerius]

http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index ... opic=48798

Photos from Lake Pontchartrain ealier today. That's something like 300 miles away from the hurricane and it still did that. Unreal.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Ike is what Gustav wanted to be. The formation of an eye so suddenly near the start of its inception was a big "fuck you" to those who thought it wouldn't bear any real danger. The last storm to follow its path lengthwise along Cuba was the 1900 storm that is now known as the worst natural disaster in US history.

With Ike powering up and sealing the eye with barely hours to go until landfall, it doesn't bode well for those suckers ignoring any evacuation efforts.

[J]

I guess all the gasoline we've stashed away will come in handy soon if this hurricane stays on course. If the refineries are knocked out with US gasoline inventories at near record lows who knows where the price of gas will be come Sunday morning, or if there'll even be gas available. Even here in Canada prices went up 13 cents per litre overnight and I doubt that's the end of it. If your car isn't topped up, do it now.

[Broomstick]

This was from the city of Galveston earlier today - the hurricane hadn't even hit yet and the flooding was that bad. The fire department couldn't do anything about the fire in the background - the flooding was too severe already, they couldn't get equipment to it.

At least one person has drowned, in Corpus Christi. Over 120 rescued from rising waters today along the Texas coast.

Winds now up to 110 mph - that's 1 mph away from Category 3.

As of 9 pm local time emergency crews where pulled off the roads and sent to shelter. They will not be sent out again until the storm abates. Anyone who's in trouble is now on their own.

Galveston is expected to go completely under the waves either late Friday or very early Saturday morning, with a storm surge that may now top 7 meters. Even the second story of buildings will be threatened, and that's not considering wind damage and debris. In 1900 the coast was scoured 15 blocks deep by ocean-propelled debris knocking down everything in their way.

The storm fills up the Gulf, it's larger than the entire state of Texas. The cloud portion of the storm is over 1400 km in extent at its widest.

Low-lying areas of Houston are under threat of flood, despite being 32 km from the coast. Apparently, people are leaving those areas.

Our local weather guys say we should expect "remnants" of Ike in our area in a couple days. We have been told to expect some wind and up to 7-10 cm of rain. Have I mentioned I live 1700 km from Houston? That is one hell of a storm!

Glad I still have a couple weeks of gas in the car and truck, although I sort of wish I'd topped both off last week, but I'd burned so little off the tanks it didn't seem worth it.

[squidman001]

Regular gasoline at the local 7-11 is already out. I live out here in Central Florida... If we are already this low on fuel, and we aren't in harms way, It doesn't look good for this weekend.

[Broomstick]

Meanwhile, although gas prices are rising and Galveston flooding, let us not forget that this storm has devastated other places.

In particular, the situation in Haiti is getting ugly, with near riots breaking out during food distribution, which is now done under the protection of UN troops. It's not just a matter of getting food to Haiti, it's also a matter of distributing it.

[Phantasee]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

This is a pretty nice animation of the IR images, it looks especially spooky if you set it to rock and speed it up a bit. It's like it's winding up to take Galveston in the jaw.

[Broomstick]

Under that storm I see parts of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and south of Texas parts of Mexico.

That's just... mind boggling.

Looks like the eye will make landfall between 2:30 and 3 am Central time. Widespread power outages, of course. Winds still holding at the top end of Category 2, but the storm surge is now forecast to reach as high as 7.5 meters along Texas coast where the eye passes over. I expect by dawn we'll be getting reports of all sorts of damage and Bad Stuff but I don't think I'll wait up for it.

[Edi]

That's going to be Bad. The next question is, how many more hurricanes can we expect this season? Because if we get a few more like this and if they hit the Gulf Coast... It's not going to be good at all.

[phongn]

Looks like the storm surge was significantly smaller than expected, peaking at ~13.5 ft.

Meteorologist: Ike's storm surge less than feared
By The Associated Press – 44 minutes ago
GALVESTON, Texas (AP) — Experts say Hurricane Ike's storm surges are less severe than originally predicted and the worst is probably over.
Hydrologist Benton McGee from the U.S. Geological Survey says the highest storm surge will probably remain 13.5 feet at Sabine Pass in Texas.
He says a 5-foot storm surge was recorded in the Houston area. Now the big concern is inland flooding.
The surge at Galveston, where Ike made landfall, was about 11 feet.
Forecasters had predicted a surge of up to 25 feet. That would've been the highest in recorded history in Texas — above 1961's Hurricane Carla, which brought a 22-foot wall of water.
It will take a few days before more definitive measurements are available.

That's going to be Bad. The next question is, how many more hurricanes can we expect this season? Because if we get a few more like this and if they hit the Gulf Coast... It's not going to be good at all.

Wikipedia has a decent summary of the predictions for this season.

[Surlethe]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7613598.stm

Jessica Willey, a journalist based in Galveston which lies on a small island off the coast of Texas, told the BBC it was the worst storm she had ever seen:

"The rain is coming sideways. Debris is flying through the air. Things are getting ripped off buildings every second, and flying through the air.

All emergency workers have been pulled off the streets until daybreak when a curfew will be lifted.

"We hope we will find the people who are left here alive and well," said Galveston mayor Lynda Ann Thomas.

There is widespread flooding, and a hospital there is under at least 9.8ft (3 metres of water). The city has lost power and a number of houses are reported to be on fire.

Residents of low-lying homes were warned they faced "certain death" if they stayed.

Wow. At least it wasn't Category 3, 4, or 5.

[J]

Thankfully Ike wasn't as disastrous as predicted judging from the early reports, still, it wasn't a cakewalk either.

And then there's this.

Bloomberg link

Ike Forces Shutdown of 19% of U.S. Refining Capacity (Update2)

By Jordan Burke

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Ike, which made landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, caused more than 19 percent of the nation's refining capacity to close and may limit fuel deliveries across the country.

At least 13 refineries in Texas shut down as Ike approached. Gulf Coast refineries and ports are the source of about 50 percent of the fuel and crude used in the eastern half of the U.S. Plants operated by Exxon Mobil Corp., Valero Energy Corp., ConocoPhillips and Royal Dutch Shell Plc were affected.

Gasoline shortages may occur across the southern U.S. up to Washington because of the closures caused by Hurricane Gustav and now Ike, Kevin Kolevar, assistant secretary for electricity delivery and energy reliability at the U.S. Department of Energy, said on a conference call yesterday.

``We expect to see constrained supplies of refined products,'' he said. ``The administration will utilize every tool at our disposal to lessen the likelihood of limited fuel supplies,'' including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Ike smashed into the Texas coast as a category 2 storm with winds almost 110 miles per hour (176 kilometers), making landfall in Galveston at 2:10 a.m. local time today. Ike's path toward Houston makes it the first storm to hit a major U.S. metropolitan area since Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005.

President George W. Bush today said the federal government was ``prepared to move'' quickly to help in recovery efforts from Hurricane Ike and said he has ordered federal authorities to guard against gasoline price gouging.

Idled Production

The storm idled about 98 percent of oil production and 94 percent of natural-gas output in the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said yesterday. Gulf fields produce 1.3 million barrels oil a day, about a quarter of U.S. output, and 7.4 billion cubic feet of gas, 14 percent of the total, government data show.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's largest oil company, said today it plans to do a flyover of its Gulf of Mexico assets to assess any damage from Hurricane Ike, after the storm passes. Shell wants ``most notably'' to examine its Auger tension leg platform, the company said in a statement on its Web site.

Shell may redeploy some workers to Shell-operated assets that were not in the immediate path of Ike, the statement said.

``Once power and communications are restored at our facilities, then personnel can commence repairs, and where possible, conduct restart and production ramp up procedures,'' the company said. `Production ramp up at each facility will vary and could take from a few days to weeks.''

Calls for Conservation

Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. energy company, urged U.S. consumers outside the Gulf Coast region to conserve gasoline and other fuels to help avert shortages.

The company, in a statement on its Web site, said it's concerned about ``the potential impact of Hurricane Ike and the additional pressure it could have on an already stressed petroleum-distribution system.''

Gasoline futures traded in New York gained 3.1 percent this week. The futures rose 2.08 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $2.7696 a gallon yesterday as the refineries closed.

CME Group Inc., the world's biggest futures exchange, is extending New York Mercantile Exchange electronic trading hours this weekend because of Ike. Trading will begin at 10 a.m. New York time on Sept. 14, earlier than the normal opening of 7 p.m.

Ike is similar to Hurricane Alicia in 1983, according to Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist at Planlytics Inc. in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

`Devastated' Infrastructure

``It took them over a year to get their feet on the ground again,'' he said. ``The refineries were down for months. Basically, the whole infrastructure around the Houston metropolitan area was devastated.''

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita forced the temporary shutdown of at least 20 U.S. refineries during August and September 2005, idling 30 percent of the nation's capacity. Most of those plants resumed operations within a few weeks of the storms.

Gasoline supplies across the southern and eastern U.S. may be disrupted by Ike, Rouiller said.

``We could have this capability lost for a long period of time,'' he said.

Exxon Mobil shut down its Baytown, Texas, refinery, the biggest in the U.S, with processing capacity of 590,500 barrels of oil a day, and its Beaumont plant, which can process 363,100 barrels a day, according to the company's Web site. Exxon is the world's largest oil company.

Valero, the largest U.S. refiner, closed three Texas oil refineries with a combined capacity of 589,000 barrels a day. They are the 294,000-barrel-a-day Port Arthur refinery, a Texas City plant with a capacity of 210,000 barrels and a Houston facility able to process 85,000 barrels, spokesman Bill Day said.

Gas Station Closings

The company closed 64 company-operated gasoline stations out of almost 200 in the Houston region, Day said.

Motiva Enterprises LLC, a joint venture of Shell and Saudi Arabia's state oil company, started shutting down its 300,000- barrel-a-day plant in Port Arthur yesterday, Shell said on its Web site. Shell is also closing its Deer Park plant, which can process 340,000 barrels per day.

Motiva's Beaumont, Pasadena and North Houston terminals are also closed and refined product supplies at those terminals remain at ``safety levels,'' Shell said in a statement.

BP is closing its 475,000-barrel-a-day Texas City, Texas, refinery. ConocoPhillips, the second-largest U.S. refiner, said its 260,000 barrel-a-day refinery in Sweeny, Texas, is closing. LyondellBasell Industries is shutting its 299,300-barrel-a-day Houston Refining LP plant.

Texas City, Pasadena

Conoco's Pasadena, Texas, refined products terminal and Clifton Ridge Marine terminal near Lake Charles also closed, and all company-operated pipelines in the region are shut down.

Marathon Oil Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. oil company, began to shut its Texas City refinery, which can process about 81,500 barrels of oil a day.

Total SA, Europe's third-largest oil company, is shutting down its Port Arthur refinery, which can process about 240,000 barrels a day.

``Ike is headed into the heart of the refining industry,'' Bruce Bullock, director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, said in an interview. ``The damage is likely to come in flooding, a lack of power for an extended period of time.''

With winds decreasing to about 90 mph, making it a Category 1 storm, Ike was moving north at about 18 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in an 8 a.m. local time advisory. Ike is likely to remain a hurricane through the afternoon as it weakens on its inland path curving toward the northeast toward western Arkansas, the center said.

That's a lot of big refineries going offline and with gasoline inventory numbers where they are, I'd expect to see rather widespread shortages.

[Damaramu]

Whew. Talk about a shit sandwich. We lost power at approximately 4:30am this morning. Ferocious wind and rain tore up most of the courtyard of our apartment building. I've took some photos of that mess.

We got power back at about 7:30am. We've got a little bit of water that rose up through the foundation in our bedroom but it's starting to dry out. Everything else is up; power and phone lines.

I called my mom and some friends with updates.

I'm from Austin and this was my first hurricane. It was nerve wracking and has convinced me to move BACK to Austin.

I hope the other SD.net Houstonians made it out ok.

[EmperorMing]

Still kicking and breathing here in Houston too; and for the most part I see tree limbs and twigs on the ground. Have not left the apartment so I cant tell you what is really going on out there.

[Broomstick]

I think this is Galveston, but it's a little hard to tell:



Of course, not all parts were equally flooded. They say only 17 buildings were destroyed, but clearly there will be water damage in others.

[Kitsune]

Anyone know how the USS Texas did weathering it?