(RAR!) Bull Moose Party Triumphant!

[KrauserKrauser]

Inspired by all the talk of Wilson being one of the most despised US Presidents, I present this RAR:

Bull Moose Party Triumphant!

By act of Q or simply Taft being less of a dick, Theodore Roosevelt is elected President of the United States for another term. Woodrow Wilson is defeated and hopefull disappears into the forgotten history of all failed presidential bids, never to be seen again. Taft still gets a song written about him in the distant future and maybe even goes on to the Supreme Court as in OT.

How does TR handle the First World War, especially the aftermath? Do we end up getting involved??

Does he clamp down on the Left as insanely as WW did? Does the US become the police state that it did during that time in OT?

How would the world be different with a second round with TR in the White House?

[Pablo Sanchez]

How does TR handle the First World War, especially the aftermath? Do we end up getting involved??

God yes, we get involved in WWI. Teddy Roosevelt was a huge warmonger and in OTL he criticized Wilson for not getting involved soon enough. TR will do everything in his power to enter the war on the side of the Allies, as soon as possible.

Does he clamp down on the Left as insanely as WW did?

Not exactly. The Progressive Party was the most left-wing of the three parties running in 1912, with a lot of populist initiatives like banking reform, income and inheritance taxes, and some welfare programs. But see below.

Does the US become the police state that it did during that time in OT?

Possibly. If he forces the USA into war, which most Americans were against, it will probably be necessary for him to crack down on dissent just to keep the ship of state together. The country simply did not want to fight WWI, and only a minority of upper-crust anglophiles like TR and Wilson were in favor of it. I don't think that TR's tendency was as authoritarian as Wilson's, but he's no less likely to drum up jingoist fever and, when the time comes, he'll be no slouch at red-baiting.

How would the world be different with a second round with TR in the White House?

Part of it depends on whether the Republican Party is broken by his victory or not. If so, the Bull Moose Party will become a left-of-center party with more populist politics and the Democrats will become the party of conservatism and business interests. But overall such a success would drag American politics leftward and, potentially this pull away from a "the business of government is business" laissez faire attitude would have a strong effect on the economy in the 1920s, so that the Great Depression isn't so Great.

[Count Chocula]

The Federal Reserve Act would not have passed in 1913. The progressive income tax (Revenue Act of 1913) would have been vetoed. We'd be living in a much different financial world. Why, you say? The Bull Moose was a populist conservative party; advocating a tax on the working man's wages would have been anathema to TR, and 1912 was still recent enough history for TR to remember Andy Jackson's quashing of the first central bank attempt.

We would have been involved in WWI as early as 1915, without the sinking of the Lusitania as a popular prod for involvement. TR liked the "good fight."

We'd have even MORE National Parks than we do now, but probably with more permits for resource extraction.

The Broomhandle Mauser would have been the issue sidearm for the US military.

Prohibition (which was passed in 1920) may not have passed. No Al Capone, no Joe Kennedy power base. No FBI.

Without the Federal Reserve Act, Revenue Act or Prohibition, the Roaring 20s might have resembled any other growth period, rather than a mania, and FDR would not have been elected President.

Otherwise, I concur with Pablo.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

How does TR handle the First World War, especially the aftermath? Do we end up getting involved??

God yes, we get involved in WWI. Teddy Roosevelt was a huge warmonger and in OTL he criticized Wilson for not getting involved soon enough. TR will do everything in his power to enter the war on the side of the Allies, as soon as possible.

Very much so. The United States would probably end up entering WW1 upon the sinking of Lusitania. The interesting question becomes one of how the war turns out with the Americans involved from nearly the get-go. With the addition of the USN to the RN's blockade efforts, the unrestricted submarine warfare phase would begin much sooner, and on land, the US would be bogged down and bled in the trenches like everyone else. Though with the added weight of American bodies fed into the meat-grinder on the side of the Allies, I suspect WW1 would end a bit sooner than it did historically. Unfortunately, Roosevelt in the OTL routinely demanded much harsher policies against Germany, and so it stands that he would've likely argued for a treaty similar to the Treaty of Versailles that we got in the OTL.

How would the world be different with a second round with TR in the White House?

Part of it depends on whether the Republican Party is broken by his victory or not. If so, the Bull Moose Party will become a left-of-center party with more populist politics and the Democrats will become the party of conservatism and business interests. But overall such a success would drag American politics leftward and, potentially this pull away from a "the business of government is business" laissez faire attitude would have a strong effect on the economy in the 1920s, so that the Great Depression isn't so Great.

Indeed. Though part of the cause of the global depression in the OTL was the ruinous terms imposed at the end of WW1. That cause would likely still be present, and the world will likely still be treated to WW2.

[Samuel]

Indeed. Though part of the cause of the global depression in the OTL was the ruinous terms imposed at the end of WW1. That cause would likely still be present, and the world will likely still be treated to WW2.

If the Germans are crushed enough, they won't have enough strength to start WW2. Heck, we win fast enough and the Russian Revolution might not occur.

[CarsonPalmer]

Three questions, I guess:

1. As Samuel noted, is it possible for an early enough entry of the United States to prevent the Russian Revolution, or at the very least alter its course?

2. What could some of the effects be on the "nadir of race relations", as it has been called, if we avoid a virulently racist Wilson presidency?

3. This one is the big one. If we are already at war in 1916, would Teddy run again? That would effectively be a fourth term for TR, so it would be controversial, but he's not a stranger to controversy, and it doesn't seem in his nature to start a war and leave office a year after he starts.

[ray245]

Which brings up the question, did the US involvement in World War 1 benefit the US global position in the 20th century?

[Thanas]

Guess what, KrauserKrauser, "an act of Q" is not a good reason for an AH to belong in this forum.

So unless you can do the following within the next 8 hours (and I am generous here - which is only because this thread has produced some debate at least and I am having a good day) this thread goes in a more appropriate place.


ALSO: Any idiot who cannot read the rules in the future and abide by them will be brought up by me in the senate.


So:

c) Alternate History
Some alternate history scenarios can serve a purpose and provide for good discussion. When posting an alternate history scenario, make sure that you are able to take part in such a discussion and that your post is not simply a request for information or an argument from ignorance in disguise.

Well, I'll be willing to give you that.

When presenting your Alternate History, your OP should outline a clear argument, including why you are diverting from the official time line and how you think such a change may have affected history, as well as an argument for why such a change might have been possible.

So lets see:
- clear argument in OP? None
- why you are diverting from the OT: "Because of wilson being lambasted for his mistakes". Alright, I'll call this a legitimate reason.
- your own opinion about the change and its reason? None.
- argument for why such a change might have been possible - None. Guess what, an act of Q is not a valid argument.

So unless you deliver these parts within the next eight hours, I shall take the usual measures and you will be brought up in the senate for discussion.

[K. A. Pital]

This went on a total OT spam. "Prevent revolution", "police state or not" - extremely large extrapolations into pseudo-history without even a shred of logical backing by the people speaking of it. A dozen questions of general matter (seriously, did US entry into WWI benefit it's position as a power in the XX century? How is that not a stupid question?)... I concur with my colleague, this thread has half a day to shape up, or it will get kicked to OT.

I don't see a reason for disciplinary action against any participants, yet, but a cleanup will be done if it doesn't shape up.

[Thanas]

I don't see a reason for disciplinary action against any participants, yet, but a cleanup will be done if it doesn't shape up.

No, I will definitely bring this up in the senate. Because despite the rules being in BIG STICKY at the top of the forum, this is the eigth spammy and poorly thought-out AH scenario I had to deal with since we were made mods.

And since even booting two threads to the HoS after having them labelled as "How not to write an AH scenario" and pointing out the rules several times clearly does not work...I think it is time the kid gloves come off. There really is no excuse anymore for idiots. Heck, people who are unclear about something can always PM one of the mod staff if they have a question, like Death did just a few hours ago. That is how you are supposed to behave here, not simply just write stuff in blatant disregard of the rules.

Oh, KrauserKrauser, guess what - you have got three hours left. Also, you will receive this with a PM.

[CarsonPalmer]

Personally, I think this is one of the more interesting AH scenarios, so I'll see if I can try and save this one with a definite scenario.

On June 17, the last day before the Republican Convention in Chicago, William Howard Taft drops dead of a heart attack. As a result, the Roosevelt delegates to the convention from California are seated. Teddy and Elihu Root reconcile, and a Roosevelt-Root ticket is running for president.

The better organized and not-split Republican ticket manages to win New York (45 electoral votes), Arizona (3 electoral votes), all the votes in California (two more electoral votes), Colorado (6 electoral votes), Idaho (4 electoral votes), Illinois (29 electoral votes), Indiana (15 electoral votes), Kansas (10 electoral votes), Kentucky (13 electoral votes), Maine (6 electoral votes), Maryland (8 electoral votes), Massachusetts (18 electoral votes), Missouri (18 electoral votes), Montana (4 electoral votes), Nebraska (8 electoral votes), New Jersey (14 electoral votes and a serious blow to Wilson), New Mexico (3 electoral votes), North Dakota (5 electoral votes), Ohio (24 electoral votes), Rhode Island (4 electoral votes), Utah (4 electoral votes), Vermont (4 electoral votes), and Wisconsin (13 electoral votes) to take the election by a margin of 358-139.

Roosevelt has now swept the Northeast and Midwest, as well as taken most of the West, but made virtually no dent in the South. I need a little time (probably later in the day, maybe even the evening) to work on a prospective cabinet, but hopefully that will be enough to keep this thread alive. If anyone has any ideas for a cabinet, please go ahead and post them.

I hope I'm not overstepping my bounds in trying to salvage this, either, and I hope this commitment is enough to keep the thread alive.

[Thanas]

I hope I'm not overstepping my bounds in trying to salvage this, either, and I hope this commitment is enough to keep the thread alive.

It is a very good attempt and no, you are not overstepping your bounds. However, there are two things you need to do IMO:
1) provide reasons why Roosevelt and Root would reconcile
2) what were the margins in the different states? Adding Root and Roosevelt's numbers together would be a good if somewhat questionable starting point, but I need to see at least a few hard numbers to be convinced this is feasible.

[CmdrWilkens]

I hope I'm not overstepping my bounds in trying to salvage this, either, and I hope this commitment is enough to keep the thread alive.

It is a very good attempt and no, you are not overstepping your bounds. However, there are two things you need to do IMO:
1) provide reasons why Roosevelt and Root would reconcile
2) what were the margins in the different states? Adding Root and Roosevelt's numbers together would be a good if somewhat questionable starting point, but I need to see at least a few hard numbers to be convinced this is feasible.

I don't know if Root and Roosevelt would neccesarrily reconcile but without Taft even though Sherman was pretty popular for a VP neither he nor LaFollete would truly have the charisma or star power to push through their own nomination. Root himself may have been able to push for his own candidacy but to do so from the chairman's gavel would probably see a huge backlash. In other words with Taft out of the picture I can't see a credible opponent to Teddy. Moreover with Sherman still set to die in October any Roosevelt candidacy that doesn't have to oppose either he or Taft is immediately stronger. Root himself woudl alter refuse to have his name put forward as a Presidential candiidate so I'm not sure he would run, agian even if he could from the chair position.

I'll take the shorter route of just having both Taft and Sherman die (Sherman getting the top of the ticket with LaFollete as VP). With no Republican contender actually alive when everyone goes to the polls it would be likely that Conservative Republicans will flee to Wilson (paticularly in the South Wilson's margin should grow enourmous) however moderate Republicans would likely stick with Roosevelt even running under the "Bull Moose"/Progressive designation. Doing a VERY rough bit of work outside of home states (NJ, NY, IN, and CA) I have split Taft's vote total as 60% Roosevelt, 30% Wilson, 10% vote for the dead guy/stay home. In NJ and IN Taft's vote gets split 60% Wilson, 30% Roosevelt, 10% stay home, in NY and CA Taft's vote gets split 70% Roosevelt, 20% Wilson, 10% stay home.

Under these sets of assumption Wilson still carries 351 total EVs of which 291 are by at least 5% (note I preserved the CA 2/11 split since I'm completely unsure how things might change THAT).

If Roosevelt were to take 100% of Taft's vote then he would carry 287 EVs against 242 for Wilson.

If he carries 90% and Wilson none then he still losses 269-262.

So basically I just don't see a scenario with Teddy winning in 1912. Yes its possible that if Taft dies and he offers something big to Root (maybe a seat on the Supreme Court when it becomes available) and gets the whole Republican machine behind him he could eat into Wilson's margins but it would take a heroic effort and still carries a very low chance of success.

[CarsonPalmer]

With regards to Root, his dispute with Roosevelt was a more political, professional one over the independent judiciary. Unless there is something I can’t find, it didn’t become an acrimonious personal dispute like the one Roosevelt had with Taft until the convention, when Root ruled in favor of seating Taft delegates and against seating Roosevelt ones (he was the chairman of the convention). Because Taft has dropped dead the day before the convention, Root never makes that ruling and never takes their dispute to another level. They had long been closely associated, and it doesn’t seem too unlikely that they should be able to reconcile to a degree. There aren’t too many other choices; if Roosevelt is running as a Republican, he would need a more conservative choice, so Hiram Johnson, his actual running mate, and Robert LaFolette (who he hated anyway) are out, and James Sherman is too conservative and too close to Taft.

As to the election itself, here’s greater detail on the states I’m giving to Roosevelt that he didn’t get in real life. I won’t go into every state unless you want me to, because a lot of the small states had similar demographics, but the bigger ones do deserve more detail.

Illinois
Wilson managed to pick up 405,048 votes in the state. Roosevelt got 386,478, while Taft got 253,593. Adding the totals together isn’t great, but even if you give Woodrow 50,000 of Taft’s supporters, Teddy still polls nearly 600,000. That’s not even figuring that a healthy Republican machine might actually push Wilson’s totals down, and make the state a true rout.

Indiana
This is the iffy one, as Wilson picked up 281,890 voters (nearly 45% of the vote). If the Republicans are starting to turn Illinois into a blowout, though, their campaign efforts can target Indian more thoroughly. It will be very close (Teddy got 162,000 votes, Taft 151,267), but a more unified Republican party could well pull this one out.

Iowa
Teddy and Woodrow are close in Iowa (Woodrow pulled 185,000, Teddy grabbed just less than 162,000), so the slightly less than 120,000 Taft supporters should be enough to tip the balance towards the Republicans.

Kansas
Similar to Iowa. Wilson got 143,663, while Teddy pulled in 120,210. Taft got just less than 75,000 voters, so even if 20,000 of them go over to Wilson, Roosevelt ekes it out.

Kentucky
On further reflection, there is no reason to give Kentucky to Roosevelt. It will be down to the wire, but in a revised election, Wilson will defend one of his southern states tenaciously, and he picked up just less than 50% of the state in real life anyway.

Massachusetts
Wilson won this state with 35% of the vote. Again, most of the Taft voters should go for Roosevelt, and even giving a good portion of them to Woodrow still produces a victory for Teddy.

Missouri
This is where I was a little nice to Roosevelt. Wilson took 330,000 votes, nearly 49% of the state, but 200,000 chose Taft, and another 124,000 chose Roosevelt. If the Republican machine is intact, and Roosevelt is able to go on the attack instead of fighting for strongholds like Illinois, he could focus his energy into Missouri, which is a semi-Southern state that is winnable. A few speeches in St. Louis instead of Chicago might be enough to swing the state to the Republican side.

New Jersey
Similar to Massachusetts, only with slightly more voters for Wilson. He took 40% of the vote, but in the end only led Teddy by about 33,000 voters. 88,000 voted for Taft, and I think that Roosevelt could have held the New Jersey Republicans to his side, especially because he was an old New York man.

New York
This is the big one. 45 electoral votes. If it isn’t plausible for this state to go to Teddy, I might as well give up the timeline. In real life, Wilson took 655,000 votes, with Teddy bringing in 390,000 and Taft snaring 455,000. Like I said, Teddy is an old New York man, and a better run Republican machine might just have been able to challenge Wilson. It will be very close, but if we can’t put Roosevelt in office, there isn’t a purpose to doing the timeline. Besides, who says Teddy can’t catch a few breaks?

Ohio
Again, I have to admit that I’m being a little bit kind to Teddy, but based on the 90,000 who voted for Debs in the state, I think they’d be friendly to a progressive Republican. If Teddy picks up some of Debs votes, and grabs a good portion of the 278,000 who voted for Taft, that plus his own 230,000 might be enough to catch Wilson’s 424,000.

I don’t think I can give Teddy Wisconsin, though. If we take those 26 votes out of the Republican column, that drops the margin down to 332-175. I also think Nebraska and Maryland are unlikely, which makes it 316-191. Roosevelt winning isn’t necessarily a likely outcome, and he needs some breaks to get it, but it isn’t cloud cuckoo land or anything like that. He was a great political speaker, and stranger things have happened.

[CmdrWilkens]

New Jersey
Similar to Massachusetts, only with slightly more voters for Wilson. He took 40% of the vote, but in the end only led Teddy by about 33,000 voters. 88,000 voted for Taft, and I think that Roosevelt could have held the New Jersey Republicans to his side, especially because he was an old New York man.

This is probably the only one I would heavily dispute. Aside from Wilson's home state status New Jersey has tended to run more conservative that the rest of the Mid-Atlantic northwards. Certainly Taft wasn't all that appealing to the state but I would lay good money that the majority of Taft voters were conservative Republicans who are more likely to stay at home or vote for Wilson than vote for Teddy (oh sure some of them will vote for Teddy but I don't think in paticularly heavy numbers). If Wilson gets even 1/3rd of Taft's votes then he has enough to win the state. Moreover the Republicans will probably still have to focus on winning New York since the Democratic machine will be working overdrive and it will take every bit of the party's muscle to put NY in the (R) column.

[CarsonPalmer]

New Jersey
Similar to Massachusetts, only with slightly more voters for Wilson. He took 40% of the vote, but in the end only led Teddy by about 33,000 voters. 88,000 voted for Taft, and I think that Roosevelt could have held the New Jersey Republicans to his side, especially because he was an old New York man.

This is probably the only one I would heavily dispute. Aside from Wilson's home state status New Jersey has tended to run more conservative that the rest of the Mid-Atlantic northwards. Certainly Taft wasn't all that appealing to the state but I would lay good money that the majority of Taft voters were conservative Republicans who are more likely to stay at home or vote for Wilson than vote for Teddy (oh sure some of them will vote for Teddy but I don't think in paticularly heavy numbers). If Wilson gets even 1/3rd of Taft's votes then he has enough to win the state. Moreover the Republicans will probably still have to focus on winning New York since the Democratic machine will be working overdrive and it will take every bit of the party's muscle to put NY in the (R) column.

That's true. Let's drop Jersey's 14, and leave it at 301-204 for the final total, with the overall majority vote being fairly close. I'm starting to do some work on who might work their way into this candidate. Do you have any suggestions?

[CmdrWilkens]

That's true. Let's drop Jersey's 14, and leave it at 301-204 for the final total, with the overall majority vote being fairly close. I'm starting to do some work on who might work their way into this candidate. Do you have any suggestions?

I assume you are thinking VP nod?

If so I think that Sheerman may still get the nod. He was a sitting VP repeat nod for the first time since the '40s which is pretty damn impressive and if Roosevelt needs someone conservative to placate the conservatives then Sherman might be the guy. I don't know how well the two of them got along. Cannon in 1912 was out of a seat but didn't like Roosevelt so he would be another on the list of folks who could maybe be considered for a VP slot or a cabinet appointment but it would definately be a concession by Teddy and not of his choosing. Harding may actually be the sort of choice that could work. He was a Taft ally (which could be a plus or minus) but was definately from the conservative wing and would be seen to help with Ohio. Given the precariousness of the state he could be a good compromise candidate thoguh its still obviously early in his career (his speech for Taft is probably the launching pad for his national ambitions)

If you meant cabinet then I would think a couple assumptions come to mind: If Sherman doesn't get the VP nod he will probably be offered some other post which means that post will go unfilled for a few months after he drops dead in October. Root has already gotten State and War and seems pretty firmly fixed in with his Senate seat. Bacon could easily come back for State as Taft had replaced him and Teddy had just promoted him prior to leaving office. If Teddy is building a coalition of rivals then Smith from Michigan woudl be ideal and trying to toss him something like Interior or Commerce and Labour may be enough to quiet the progressives while also allowing the Michigan party to put a machine candidate back into the Senate (which Smith most decidedly was not). Stimson may stay on as SecWar though that would be more than a little unusual. He obviously remained a national figure since FDR would end up using him years later. Knox almost has to end up somewhere. The problme is, as with Root, he has already held AG and SecState. Not sure if he would be up for SecWar but that's probably the only place that Roosevelt could place him and have everyone keep face. Moody is another name I expect to crop up (being a Harvard and first go 'round guy) though I'd rather expect him to nab Lurton's seat on the Supreme Court after he dies in 1914.

[Thanas]

Due to the commendable effort made by CarsonPalmer and CmdrWilkens, this thread will stay open. Good job by both of you.

[CmdrWilkens]

Due to the commendable effort made by CarsonPalmer and CmdrWilkens, this thread will stay open. Good job by both of you.

The funniest thing, to me at least, right now is that if I had wanted a REALLY cop-out answer to this whole thing (and one I disagree with on a number of points) I could just have pointed everyone to What If? 2 and the essay by John Lukacs of Chestnut Hill College, Philadelphia PA entitled "The Election of Theodore Roosevelt, 1912 Brokering an earlier end to World War I." Lukacs scenario has Roosevelt basically speaking from the floor and personally whipping the convention by sheer force of personality into seating his delegations and then moving onward to claim the nod. That said the scenario does recommend itself a a starting point for the effect a 3rd (and possibly 4th) Teddy term at the helm would have looked like.

[Guardsman Bass]

Due to the commendable effort made by CarsonPalmer and CmdrWilkens, this thread will stay open. Good job by both of you.

The funniest thing, to me at least, right now is that if I had wanted a REALLY cop-out answer to this whole thing (and one I disagree with on a number of points) I could just have pointed everyone to What If? 2 and the essay by John Lukacs of Chestnut Hill College, Philadelphia PA entitled "The Election of Theodore Roosevelt, 1912 Brokering an earlier end to World War I." Lukacs scenario has Roosevelt basically speaking from the floor and personally whipping the convention by sheer force of personality into seating his delegations and then moving onward to claim the nod. That said the scenario does recommend itself a a starting point for the effect a 3rd (and possibly 4th) Teddy term at the helm would have looked like.

There's more or less a number of scenarios that could have been done. We could have run one, for example, in which Roosevelt has much more of a fighting chance due because Wilson either dies or is incapacitated before the 1912 election. It's known that he had at least one stroke before the major 1919 stroke (in 1906), and it is not a stretch to imagine the 1906 stroke being more severe.

[CmdrWilkens]

The funniest thing, to me at least, right now is that if I had wanted a REALLY cop-out answer to this whole thing (and one I disagree with on a number of points) I could just have pointed everyone to What If? 2 and the essay by John Lukacs of Chestnut Hill College, Philadelphia PA entitled "The Election of Theodore Roosevelt, 1912 Brokering an earlier end to World War I." Lukacs scenario has Roosevelt basically speaking from the floor and personally whipping the convention by sheer force of personality into seating his delegations and then moving onward to claim the nod. That said the scenario does recommend itself a a starting point for the effect a 3rd (and possibly 4th) Teddy term at the helm would have looked like.

There's more or less a number of scenarios that could have been done. We could have run one, for example, in which Roosevelt has much more of a fighting chance due because Wilson either dies or is incapacitated before the 1912 election. It's known that he had at least one stroke before the major 1919 stroke (in 1906), and it is not a stretch to imagine the 1906 stroke being more severe.

Actually any scenrio that lifts from personal medical reaction is immediately more plausible. Just as Taft dead of a heart attack is easily imaginable and requires little more than the tiniest of nudges. We don't have to change personalities, order of events, or any sequence controlled by human personality rather simply give randomn medical chance a shot to remove a player from the board. Wilson's death or incapacitation by stroke in say late 1912 (after he has already been nominated) may easily be enough to give Teddy the win. It would be tough for the Democrats to offer up a truly viable candidate on such short notice (certainly Marshall could try but Indiana isn't quite the fertile territory from which to spring to prominent national office). Southern states might lean towards Taft a bit and those who viewed Wilson as a progressive would be drawn to Teddy while a large number of Democrats would vote for Marshall or stay home.

If we were to assume that Marshall retains 60% of Wilson's total, 20% stay home and the remainder split 10% Teddy and 10% Taft then we are left with this:

Roosevelt: 227 EVs
Taft: 168 EVs
Marshall: 136 EVs

None have a majority neccessarry to claim victory so the eleciton would be turned to the House of Representatives. Assuming party-line votes we have 50 states which go as follows:

Democrat:
AL, AZ, AR, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MD, MS, MO, MT, NV, NH, NJ, NY, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, TX, VA

Republican:
CA, ID, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, NM, ND, OR, PA, SD, UT, VT, WA, WV, WI, WY

Progressive/Ind:
None

Deadlocked:
NE, RI

This would then, theoretically lead to a vote of 28-18-0-2. If the states decide to vote according to the vote in the state then we would have : 12-15-21 for Dem-Rep-Prog. So if the congresscritters vote accoridng to party only Teddy may get a shot at California but that's about it while Marshall rolls up the nomination. If they vote based on statewide totals then Teddy still needs to pick off 4 more states to get to a majority.