Consequences if the USSR didn't collapse?

[Sidewinder]

I'm planning a story set in an alternate universe where the Soviet government remained in power, and a (relatively) intact USSR remained a superpower, although the General Secretary is Shockwave's puppet, and he/she knows this. The point of divergence is 1970, when the Transformers take part in the Yom Kippur War, with the Autobots on the Israeli side and the Decepticons on the Arab side. The Shah remains in power, so the Iran-Iraq War does not occur; the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait does not occur, so Saddam Hussein remains in power.

I think some consequences of this divergence is the US continuing to court China as an ally against the Soviets. The Warsaw Pact may remain (relatively) intact, and Germany may remain divided. But I don't know how this will change the outcome of the Siachen conflict (if it occurs at all), due to the confusing diplomatic relationships India and Pakistan have with the rest of the world, i.e., Russia and Israel being major arms suppliers to the Indian military, the US and China being major arms suppliers to the Pakistani one, Russia providing support to Israel's enemies in the Yom Kippur War... If I was Optimus Prime, I'd have problems deciding which side to take in another Indo-Pakistani War, if sides are taken at all.

Some technical issues that may result from this is the IAI Lavi going into production, the J-11 being a license-built F-15, the PLA modernizing with Western tech instead of Russian tech, e.g., their next-generation tank mounting a 120 mm smoothbore that can use NATO ammo. Any other ideas?

[Straha]

Here's the question: Why does the USSR stay stable?

In history it fell, in large part, because it couldn't sustain its spending. During the Iran-Iraq war the GCC deliberately slashed the price of oil down to next to nothing with the direct goal of forcing Iran out of the war. The side-effect of that was that Russia, which had been sustaining itself on Oil exports, couldn't afford to spend the way it had been anymore.

So, to put my question more bluntly. All you've said is "This things don't happen." What you don't explain is the real crux of the matter, why don't they happen? Why does the Shah stay in charge? What happened differently in Moscow? Etc.

[Sidewinder]

What you don't explain is the real crux of the matter, why don't they happen? Why does the Shah stay in charge? What happened differently in Moscow? Etc.

The story is inspired by this thread. Basically, the Decepticon Empire supports a group of hardliners who take power in Moscow, and continues to provide material support. My original idea was the Autobots help the Shah suppress the Islamists in return for oil supplies. (To the Islamists, a Transformer represents Allah's will; you can guess the impression a 20-meter-tall robot, crushing main battle tanks in his bare hands and throwing the wreckages with enough force to collapse fortified bunkers makes.) That may change, however. (The last time I depicted Transformers involving themselves in the Middle East, I had a Decepticon officer crush Ayatollah Khomeini in his hand and order the razing of Tehran, ultimately killing 800,000 to 1,000,000 people.)

[Sidewinder]

By the way, I'm not the only one depicting the Soviet Union's existence in an alternate universe; this story makes a reference to a "breakaway Soviet Republic."

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I think Stas would have listed down a whole list of things that wouldn't have happened if that traitorous swine known as Yeltsin did not get his way and that traitorous spineless swine known as Gorbachev actually showed some spine.

[K. A. Pital]

Here's the question: Why does the USSR stay stable?

Because it outsits the oil price crisis, as well as maintaining a tighter grip on governing, unlike Gorbachov's "I lost control" style?

In history it fell, in large part, because it couldn't sustain its spending.

Most reasons were political rather than strictly economic. That I can tell you, and so can most people who ever lived in the USSR and post-Soviet Russia. Gorbachov inherited crisis dealings in the Soviet economy, but his attempt to modernize AND abolish state control at the same time were remarkably flawed. Most citizens did not feel something could change, this is also why they did not actively resist the post-downfall situation - they simply coudl not believe that the USSR could just evaporate. At least my father said so, and so did my grandfathers - for all 40 years, life was "okay" and most people thought that it would just continue the way it was under Brezhnew.

The side-effect of that was that Russia, which had been sustaining itself on Oil exports, couldn't afford to spend the way it had been anymore.

Oil exports weren't the only thing. Of course, it exacerbated crisis symptoms, but it was not the only thing, and neither was it so strong that you could not maintain the economy.

I would agree that you'd have to list the scenario more thoroughly.

The best chance the USSR has is probably Andropov's program, who ordered forcible jury-rigging of last generation of Western electronics, goods, etc etc. to rapidly modernize Soviet industries, which hitherto relied on extensive growth, and especially expand the light industry and food production.

As for the consequences, I'd believe China - USSR - USA "big game" would've arisen as a result. USSR would be similar to Belarus in governing, a socialist autocracy. It would have an "influence zone" exteding into some neighbor nations in Eastern Europe, which the US would actively try to undermine by "democratizing" them (supporting riot overtake of power, etc. against Soviet-aligned governments). This would lead to a contraction of the "soft influence zone" and of course Germany, most likely, will have to be let go.

There'd be no 1990s for the USSR, though, which would mean in around year 2000, when the prices start to rise, the Soviet economy woudl feel itself a little at ease, and may embark on some foreign military adventurism - or may not.

Yugoslavia might be a hotpoint for "proxy war" if it suffers Balkanization like in reality.

[Sidewinder]

The plot of the story, and the reason I wanted to feature a (relatively) intact USSR, is inspired by this thread and involves the insertion of Autobots and Decepticons into the world of Stuart Slade's 'Armageddon??' I'm still working on the setting, but basically, the Autobots fight on the Israeli side in the Yom Kippur War, while a Decepticon faction, led by Starscream, fight on the Arab side; the Autobot-Israeli forces exploit the Decepticon-Arab forces' logistical problems to win. Afterwards, the Decepticons move to Iraq, and offer Saddam Hussein Cybertronian technology in exchange for a steady oil supply. Saddam, knowing Iraq doesn't have the resources to properly exploit this technology, arranges a meeting between Starscream and the General Secretary of the USSR, the deal being the USSR funds the Iraqi weapons programs in exchange for blueprints with which to build these weapons themselves; a similar deal is arranged between the Autobots, the Israeli and US governments. Two products of these programs are nuclear-powered aircraft and mass-produced Landkreuzer Ratte(s).

By the time of The Message, a ceasefire is in effect between the Autobots and their allies, and the Decepticons and their allies. Both sides decide to join forces to counter those of Hell, which field bronze cannon and Congreve rockets. (It's revealed that a band of Decepticons, led by Megatron, were marooned in Hell. Megatron transforms into Satan's trident.)

[K. A. Pital]

Heh. That would better work with simple Soviet Transformer adventures, Sidewinder. Stuart's tale is only fun as far as it uses realistic weaponry agianst mythic creatures.

To expand a little, the USSR in my view would be a 1-Party state, mostly bureaucratic, with pre-existing mobility at the lower ranks and possibly more power to the Supeme Council (with ailing power of Politbureau of the CPSU).

Unlike China, it would have more economic and military resources to boot (and especially more ecnomic resource per citizen).

Seeing Optimus Prime as a KAMAZ or KRAZ truck would be priceless though