Alien Signals? Where?!

[kojikun]

Ive been thinking about whether or not we'll ever contact aliens via radio and im convinced we won't.

ok let me start by talking about the developement of civilisation. It took humans from 20,000 years to go from fully modern human thought to fully modern human civilisation. I'll repeat that: 20,000 years to go from cave paintings to cities.

The chances of another species developing civilisation in synch with us (let alone evolving in synch with us) is so astronomically high its not even worth considering.

Now this is where my point comes it. Even if we give the aliens a 100 year jump start or lag, so theyre only 100 years more or less advances, rather then 20,000, theres still very little chance for us to detect a signal from them.

Theres two reasons for this:

1) 100 years ago, humans could not produce signals capable of reaching space. A mere century ago, our most advanced technology could not be detected from ORBIT let alone another star systen

and 2) in a century FROM NOW, we as humans will probably not being using analog radio technology. We're already seeing the phasing out of analog and the move to digital (look at XM radio). If in 100 years all radio transmissions are digital, aliens will have a hard time. Have you ever hear raw digital/binary signals? They sound like noise. This means that even if we do recieve a signal, we would need a codec to make any sense out of it! its hard enough to get modern computers to interpret KNOWN codecs (Quicktime playing DivX? I dont think so). Now try doing that with an ALIEN signal.

Ok so thats why I think we'll never detect ET using radio. Theyre either so primitive, or so advanced, that we can't recognize a signal as a signal.

[Wicked Pilot]

Perhaps one of Wicked Pilot's stories will help the situation.

Imagine you're sitting in a random seat within the Louisiana Superdome. All lights are out, it is pitch black. You just sit there with your eyes closed. Somewhere else in another random seat a stranger sits. You are both sitting in your respective seats for the entire day, all 24 hours of it. You have a meter long peice of pvc pipe, the stranger has a match. At a random time during the day, you put the pvc pipe over one eye, then open that eye. You stare at whatever direction you happen to be facing, no looking around, no moving the pipe. After three seconds you close your eye. The stranger, at a random time during the day, will light his match. It will go out in about five seconds.

What are the odds that during the three seconds you have your eye open, you will see the flame coming from the stranger?

[Spanky The Dolphin]

Also, say it takes about ten seconds for the light to travel to the other side of the stadium.

(Post 1000. Today I am reborn as a god.)

[Mr Bean]

Except Radio travels at C and we put out over 40 Years of Signals that could be deceted thousands of LY away for over 40 Years for 24/7 from thousands of Transivors

[Wicked Pilot]

Also, say it takes about ten seconds for the light to travel to the other side of the stadium.

That is not revelant. As long as the match is lighted before 23:59:45, the odds will stay the same.

[Spanky The Dolphin]

I know, but he seemed to forget about the lag time that a signal traveling at c across intersteller distances would create. Like it all happens at the same time.

His theory is about as dumb as the "if there were aliens, they'd already be here, so they don't exist" theory.

[Ironwolf]

One thing to consider though is that scientist aren't looking at just radio. They are constantly searching for X-rays, electromagnetic anomalies , etc. along with traditional radio and digital waves. I guess my main point is that if something is sent in analog, digital, infrared, etc... it makes no difference as long as we can receive it. We may not be able to decode it, but if it does have some significance i.e. repetitive or distinctive pattern, something that distinguishes it from the background noise of space, then the question itself is answered. Then it's just a matter of figuring out what it says if anything.

Thats when the real debates begin.

[Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi]

Well, aliens could evolve faster, learn faster, or both. Unless we devlop percise and powerful methods of detecting other activity, we'll never get alien signals. Am I even on topic?

[kojikun]

Actually I had considered the time delay caused by travel but i concluded its irrelevant.

Theres still the problem of us recieving and them developing being in synch.

What I mean is, their signals could already be WAY past us by now, if they were old enough, or theyre very far and still coming but by the time we get them we wont be able to understand it. Imagine trying to feed a punchcard into a modern computer. Simply won't work.

Time lag is an issue, but the chances of their signals reaching us at JUST the right time are amazingly low. At worst we could be recieving 100,000 year old signals. Assuming that the aliens 100,000 ly away.

If the aliens are say 500 LY away, and transmitted 1000 years ago, the signals are 500 years past us. If they were transmitted 100 years ago, theyre still 400 LY from reaching us. In 400 years we wont be using technology compatible with modern computers.

[kojikun]

Yeah but Wolf,

We would still have to synch up (meaning theyd have to have developed radio x years before us for every x lightyears they are from us). The chances of that happening are unlikely.

And we may not even be able to RECOGNIZE such signals.

[Colonel Olrik]

If the aliens are say 500 LY away, and transmitted 1000 years ago, the signals are 500 years past us. If they were transmitted 100 years ago, theyre still 400 LY from reaching us. In 400 years we wont be using technology compatible with modern computers.

There's a big flaw in that reasoning. You're assuming they have transmitted for a short period of time.

Earth has been transmitting to space constanly for the last 70 years. And we'll keep transmitting more and more (unless cable wins by KO).

The same is possible with alien civilizations. More so if they do it on purpose. A neverending broadcast to say hello to new civilizations..

[Enlightenment]

His theory is about as dumb as the "if there were aliens, they'd already be here, so they don't exist" theory.

Run the numbers. The Fermi paradox isn't as stupid as you seem to think.

[Ironwolf]

kojikun, you make a good point. Although the whoever it is wouldn’t be restricted to just radio waves if they were developing parallel with us. Other forms of communication can be detected almost as easily as radio waves. Trust me, I used to work on electronic surveillance aircraft. Regardless though I agree.

Colonel Olrik, you bring up a good point as well, however we still have to assume that whoever is transmitting has to be transmitting in a form that we can detect, and do so in such a time frame that their transmission doesn’t make itself irrelevant to us buy passing us by before we can detect it or not reaching us at all. The fact that the signal could last for decades or centuries doesn’t help the odds any if they aren’t even in our "neighborhood".

The bottom line is that if a signal is sent, be it on purpose or accident, we have to be able to receive it, and someone has to be listening. And so far SETI has this to add:

Australian astronomer Chris Tinney offered up a world with only 20% the mass of Jupiter (the second smallest yet found around a normal star), he boosted the tally of extrasolar planets to 100

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

If the aliens are say 500 LY away, and transmitted 1000 years ago, the signals are 500 years past us. If they were transmitted 100 years ago, theyre still 400 LY from reaching us. In 400 years we wont be using technology compatible with modern computers.

There's a big flaw in that reasoning. You're assuming they have transmitted for a short period of time.

Earth has been transmitting to space constanly for the last 70 years. And we'll keep transmitting more and more (unless cable wins by KO).

The same is possible with alien civilizations. More so if they do it on purpose. A neverending broadcast to say hello to new civilizations..

Ahhh, but they would have to intentionally transmit a narrow-band, high power radio transmission at us if we were to have any hope of getting it. Sure, we've been broadcasting for most of a century, but all of it was exclusively for our own consumption. None of it was narrowband stuff aimed exclusively at stars we thought could be habitable. It's all been spewing forth from our planet almost omnidirectionally. From just a few lightyears away, our signals would be practically indistinguisable from background noise.

[kheegster]

This is something I read from one of Carl Sagan's books, 'The Pale Blue Dot' I think, regarding the results that the early SETI program yielded (i.e. before Congress cut off funding I think). There were 11 signals which satisfied all criteria for being a signal from ETI except for that of repeatability. Of those, 8 of them came from the direction of the Milky Way. When you think that interstellar gases might be able to temporarily boost some signals that might not otherwise be strong enough to reach us, there is a strong possibility that they are from ETI. I personally believe that ETI is out there, but it is another matter entirely to find and establish contact with them.

KG

[kojikun]

Olrik, you obviously dont understand what I'm saying.

The chances of that century, say, of transmission reaching us at exactly the same time we're using recievers capable of detecting it are astronomical.

For all we know, aliens stopped using analog just as humans STARTED using analog! or we'll stop using analog when THEY start.

The window of oppurtunity is intensely small, about 100 years if you go by modern human technology. 100 years from the first space capable transmissions to the end of space power analog (which is going to be in about 30-40 years i suspect).

If in 30-40 years we no longer use powerful analog transmitters, then the aliens would have had to transmit to that their ANALOG signals reach us within the next half century. And like I said in my first post, the chances of that happening are incredibly low.

[Dooey Jo]

Olrik, you obviously dont understand what I'm saying.

The chances of that century, say, of transmission reaching us at exactly the same time we're using recievers capable of detecting it are astronomical.

For all we know, aliens stopped using analog just as humans STARTED using analog! or we'll stop using analog when THEY start.

The window of oppurtunity is intensely small, about 100 years if you go by modern human technology. 100 years from the first space capable transmissions to the end of space power analog (which is going to be in about 30-40 years i suspect).

If in 30-40 years we no longer use powerful analog transmitters, then the aliens would have had to transmit to that their ANALOG signals reach us within the next half century. And like I said in my first post, the chances of that happening are incredibly low.

There will probably be some old analog radio transcievers back at some museums that could pick up the signals and in half a century. And we are most likely to still use radio telescopes in 50 years anyway. They should be able to pick up all signals.

[Enlightenment]

This is something I read from one of Carl Sagan's books, 'The Pale Blue Dot' I think, regarding the results that the early SETI program yielded (i.e. before Congress cut off funding I think).

The SETI project is still active and is funded by private donations and corporate sponsorships. The Seti@Home project alone currently has 9 candidate signals that have been detected three times.



This post had a bad gateway (502).

[TrailerParkJawa]

Just because most of the world leaves Analog Radio behind at some point in the future, why does that mean a SETI Organization would also leave it behind.

If it is agreed that a radio signal is a good way to get noticed, then mabye that would become the standard way to say hello. I mean we today we use cell phones, radios, internet, etc to communicate, but we still all recongnize a waving hand as a hello.

Anyway, I agree the chances are very remote of finding anyone and the aliens would also have to believe a radio is the best way to say hello, but I dont think SETI is entirely pointless.

[kojikun]

Yes but again, you are all assuming that the time that the aliens use analog radio is yet to come. If its already past and is long gone, we have no chance of detecting the signals.

[Cpt. Marko Ramius]

Not to get off the point or anything, but why would we want to be contacted by another civilization? Let's just say that, for the point of arguement, there are aliens out there, that they've been listening, and that they have not only the capability of responding but also the ablitity to head over here and meet us face to face. Why would we want this? Humanity is well accustomed to being the most evolved, advanced and intelligent species in the world. The shock for most people by discoverring that we're not would be enormous. Not to mention the possibility that they're not quite as nice as we are. It would be like our current relationship with house pets, or in the past the masters and the slaves.

Sorry... had to rant. You may continue now. ^_^

[Cpt_Frank]

Not to get off the point or anything, but why would we want to be contacted by another civilization? Let's just say that, for the point of arguement, there are aliens out there, that they've been listening, and that they have not only the capability of responding but also the ablitity to head over here and meet us face to face. Why would we want this? Humanity is well accustomed to being the most evolved, advanced and intelligent species in the world. The shock for most people by discoverring that we're not would be enormous. Not to mention the possibility that they're not quite as nice as we are. It would be like our current relationship with house pets, or in the past the masters and the slaves.

Sorry... had to rant. You may continue now. ^_^

yeah why would someone want to cross the wester ocean..... everybody knows that the end of the world lies there.....

btw we won't discover anything. I'm pretty sure there is more life out there, probably also intelligent, but the galaxy's so big the chances are near 0.