[energy] the long term trend of oil price is downwards

[madd0ct0r]

https://tv.theiet.org/?videoid=7379

refresh the page if the vid dosen't work on first time.

[aerius]

1) assume zero marginal costs
2) everything goes to fixed price contracts
3) electricity demands go up drastically
4) automate everything
5) ?????
6) Profit!

I admit I skipped most of the lecture and focused mostly on the slides, but yeah, that's about what I got out of it.

[madd0ct0r]

that'd be accurate

the key takeaways for me were:

1) Oil prices will remain low for a decade or so due to the number of oil countries that rely on a fixed income for stability - when the price drops they pump more.

2) Decc's models for energy price (such as used for the Hinckely C pricing) are thus wildly wrong. Ignoring carbon, energy prices remain low. It's something we should take into consideration.

3) his note that nuclear accidents come around every 20 years or so and push the price up for all exisiting/planned nuclear plants, as well as the local claeanup cost.

4) his suggestion for energy bidding and contracting seems interesting. The goverment sets how much they want and the permissable carbon. Bidders have to bid to provide a fixed amount of energy. no more, no less. 2 rounds with second round binding. That means renewable providers have to include the cost of grid balancing in their bids and nuclear providers have to hedge against their plant not being ready in time. I'm not sure the former is valid since it penalises the first renewables who have to include more grid balancing per MW comapred to later movers, but it's an interesting model.

5) He seems way too optimistic about electrification and automation.

[General Zod]

Isn't that a bit like saying it's probably going to snow at some point in January in New York?