2 new planets out past Pluto

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2 new planets out past Pluto

Post by dragon »

A new study suggests that at least two more planets are circling the sun far beyond Pluto’s orbit.

The analysis is based on calculations of bodies located well past Neptune, regions of space that include the Kuiper Belt, the scattered disk and the Oort cloud.

ANALYSIS: Kuiper Belt Was a ‘War Zone’ — A Detective Story

Instead of randomly flying through space, 12 of these so-called “extreme trans-Neptunian objects” (ETNO) show some unexpected symmetry.

“This excess of objects with unexpected orbital parameters makes us believe that some invisible forces are altering the distribution of the orbital elements of the ETNO,” Carlos de la Fuente Marcos, with the Complutense University of Madrid, said in a press release.

“We consider that the most probable explanation is that other unknown planets exist beyond Neptune and Pluto,” he said.

ANALYSIS: Strange Object Boosts Kuiper Belt Mystery

The study was based on calculations of the gravitational influences a large object would have on smaller, distant bodies.

“If it is confirmed, our results may be truly revolutionary for astronomy,” de la Fuente Marcos said.

The research is published in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.
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"Planet X" might actually exist — and so might "Planet Y."

At least two planets larger than Earth likely lurk in the dark depths of space far beyond Pluto, just waiting to be discovered, a new analysis of the orbits of "extreme trans-Neptunian objects" (ETNOs) suggests.

Researchers studied 13 ETNOs — frigid bodies such as the dwarf planet Sedna that cruise around the sun at great distances in elliptical paths. [Meet Our Solar System's Dwarf Planets]

Theory predicts a certain set of details for ETNO orbits, study team members said. For example, they should have a semi-major axis, or average distance from the sun, of about 150 astronomical units (AU). (1 AU is the distance from Earth to the sun — roughly 93 million miles, or 150 million kilometers.) These orbits should also have an inclination, relative to the plane of the solar system, of almost 0 degrees, among other characteristics.

But the actual orbits of the 13 ETNOs are quite different, with semi-major axes ranging from 150 to 525 AU and average inclinations of about 20 degrees.

"This excess of objects with unexpected orbital parameters makes us believe that some invisible forces are altering the distribution of the orbital elements of the ETNOs, and we consider that the most probable explanation is that other unknown planets exist beyond Neptune and Pluto," lead author Carlos de la Fuente Marcos, of the Complutense University of Madrid, said in a statement.

"The exact number is uncertain, given that the data that we have is limited, but our calculations suggest that there are at least two planets, and probably more, within the confines of our solar system," he added.

The potential undiscovered worlds would be more massive than Earth, researchers said, and would lie about 200 AU or more from the sun — so far away that they'd be very difficult, if not impossible, to spot with current instruments.
Details of the cold objects that orbit far from the sun.
Astronomers are discovering trans-Neptunian objects belonging to the Oort Cloud, the most distant region of Earth's solar system. See how the dwarf planets of Sedna and 2012 VP113 stack up in this Space.com infographic.
Credit: By Karl Tate, Infographics Artist
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The new results — detailed in two papers in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Letters — aren't the first to lend credence to the possible existence of a so-called Planet X.

In March 2014, Chadwick Trujillo and Scott Sheppard announced the discovery of 2012 VP113, an ETNO that never gets closer to the sun than 80 AU. 2012 VP113 thus joined Sedna as the two known denizens of the "inner Oort Cloud," a far-flung and largely unexplored region of space beyond the Kuiper Belt (where Pluto lies).

Trujillo and Sheppard suggested that the orbits of 2012 VP113 and Sedna are consistent with the continued presence of a big "perturber" — perhaps a planet 10 times more massive than Earth that lies 250 AU from the sun.

However, the pair also stressed that other explanations are possible as well. For example, Sedna and 2012 VP113 may have been pushed out to their present positions by long-ago interactions with other stars in the sun's birth cluster. The objects may also have been nabbed from another solar system during a stellar close encounter.

De la Fuente Marcos and his colleagues acknowledge the possibility of such alternative scenarios as well. The picture should get clearer as researchers study the orbits of more and more distant, icy objects, he said.

"If it is confirmed, our results may be truly revolutionary for astronomy," de la Fuente Marcos said.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

Post by Borgholio »

Yeah I read about this. Thing is the planets can't be very big or else they would have been spotted already.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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The article does say possibly ten times Earth's mass, but 250 AU from the Sun. At that distance we'd be hard pressed to spot anything.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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Holy shit, I can't believe I missed that part. Still, 10x Earth's mass would be more than 2/3 the size of Uranus. Surely that would be visible on a microwave survey even at 250 AU...
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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I'm skeptical of that, too. A planet with 10 times Earth's mass that far out is almost certainly a small gas giant, and it would probably be visible in at least some spectra.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

Post by Eternal_Freedom »

It probablyis visible, but it'll be faint and a long. The usual methods of planet detection (dips in primary's luminosity, orbital wobbles, etc) can't be used in this case. As I said, even though these planets are visible at long wavelengths, they'll be very faint. They may even have been observed already and no one clocked exactly what they were.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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Borgholio wrote:Holy shit, I can't believe I missed that part. Still, 10x Earth's mass would be more than 2/3 the size of Uranus. Surely that would be visible on a microwave survey even at 250 AU...
Why, the claim we should be able to photograph even smaller planets than that from 150 LY away from other thread can be consider closed, then :wink:
Eternal_Freedom wrote:It probablyis visible, but it'll be faint and a long. The usual methods of planet detection (dips in primary's luminosity, orbital wobbles, etc) can't be used in this case.
But stellar blink comparison method (that between others discovered Pluto and Barnard's Star) can be used perfectly well and seeing how in past century astronomers were obsessed with finding new planets with it it begs the question why no one spot them.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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Why, the claim we should be able to photograph even smaller planets than that from 150 LY away from other thread can be consider closed, then :wink:
Heh. Truthfully though it is difficult to reconcile the idea that we HAVE photographed smaller planets around other stars but we can't find something bigger than that in our own damn solar system. :)
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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"Their orbits are consistent with..." is not even close to saying the same thing as "their orbits are only consistent with..."
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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To be fair, if we're directly imaging a planet around another star, we know roughly where in the sky to look- within a very tiny angular distance away from the star itself. Stars are easy to find and provide convenient aiming points for the telescope.

A very remote planet would move slowly across the sky, but it'd still move, and be practically invisible in most spectra. Therefore it might not show up at all as anything more than a vague, ambiguous smudge on infrared or whatever... making it difficult to locate the thing.

In the same way, there seems to be little doubt that plenty of astronomers happened to point a telescope in the general direction of Pluto at one time or another- but it wasn't until the 1920s and '30s that someone actually made a methodical enough survey of the sky to find it.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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Another glitch when looking for a planet X, Y or Z — what does its orbit look like? All the current planets, even most of the asteroids, orbit in a flat(tish) plane around the sun, the ecliptic. Pluto is an exception, its orbit is a lot more inclined to the ecliptic than any of the others. Many of the other outer system rocks and iceballs also have high inclination angles. That's going to make a search pretty much a matter of luck, you can't increase your chance of finding something by looking only in a band around the ecliptic.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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Borgholio wrote:
Why, the claim we should be able to photograph even smaller planets than that from 150 LY away from other thread can be consider closed, then :wink:
Heh. Truthfully though it is difficult to reconcile the idea that we HAVE photographed smaller planets around other stars but we can't find something bigger than that in our own damn solar system. :)
It's not just distance from us we need to worry about. If a planet is a further distance from the nearest star (i.e. the sun in this case) it should be dimmer. I imagine the planets that were photographed were much closer to their star than this one is.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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jwl wrote:
Borgholio wrote:
Why, the claim we should be able to photograph even smaller planets than that from 150 LY away from other thread can be consider closed, then :wink:
Heh. Truthfully though it is difficult to reconcile the idea that we HAVE photographed smaller planets around other stars but we can't find something bigger than that in our own damn solar system. :)
It's not just distance from us we need to worry about. If a planet is a further distance from the nearest star (i.e. the sun in this case) it should be dimmer. I imagine the planets that were photographed were much closer to their star than this one is.

Most were, yes. But there are some that were pretty far away. This one for instance, is 11 times Jupiter's mass and was photographed at 650 AU from the parent star:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HD_106906_b

And here's one at 2,000 AU!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GU_Piscium_b

Now granted these are both massive planets so that might have something to do with how "easy" they were to detect. Here's a great list from NASA sortable by all sorts of properties:

http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.ed ... ig=planets

Now looking at that table for planets roughly 10 times the size of Earth (1/30 Jupiter's mass), we have somewhat paltry distances of only 3 - 4 AU. Given how Eris is 97 AU away, I can't find any way to even guess how hard it would be to detect a 10-Earth mass planet at 250AU...
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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Borgholio wrote:Holy shit, I can't believe I missed that part. Still, 10x Earth's mass would be more than 2/3 the size of Uranus. Surely that would be visible on a microwave survey even at 250 AU...
Not exactly. Rocky planets do not get much bigger than Earth because as mass increases, so does density. Those planets are very dense.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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It's clearly Nemesis. :roll:
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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Borgholio wrote:
jwl wrote:It's not just distance from us we need to worry about. If a planet is a further distance from the nearest star (i.e. the sun in this case) it should be dimmer. I imagine the planets that were photographed were much closer to their star than this one is.

Most were, yes. But there are some that were pretty far away. This one for instance, is 11 times Jupiter's mass and was photographed at 650 AU from the parent star:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HD_106906_b

And here's one at 2,000 AU!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GU_Piscium_b

Now granted these are both massive planets so that might have something to do with how "easy" they were to detect. Here's a great list from NASA sortable by all sorts of properties:

http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.ed ... ig=planets

Now looking at that table for planets roughly 10 times the size of Earth (1/30 Jupiter's mass), we have somewhat paltry distances of only 3 - 4 AU. Given how Eris is 97 AU away, I can't find any way to even guess how hard it would be to detect a 10-Earth mass planet at 250AU...
Both of those have a surface temperatures of thousands of kelvin; presumably either because they formed closer in and cooled or have some kind of nuclear reactions going on. If they're that hot, detecting them becomes much easier. The same may not be true of these other planets.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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jwl wrote:Both of those have a surface temperatures of thousands of kelvin; presumably either because they formed closer in and cooled or have some kind of nuclear reactions going on. If they're that hot, detecting them becomes much easier. The same may not be true of these other planets.
Nuclear reactions aren't likely, they're not quite big enough for that. Age is also a factor: one of the stars is an F-type (a bit hotter and heavier than our sun), which usually means it would move in and out of the Main Sequence long before it reaches our sun's age, the other is part of a fairly young association of stars (i.e. all formed from the same gas cloud and usually all moving in the same general direction). So, if both these planets are young Big Jupiters, it's likely they're still contracting (like Jupiter still is today), and that's going to generate some heat.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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SpottedKitty wrote:
jwl wrote:Both of those have a surface temperatures of thousands of kelvin; presumably either because they formed closer in and cooled or have some kind of nuclear reactions going on. If they're that hot, detecting them becomes much easier. The same may not be true of these other planets.
Nuclear reactions aren't likely, they're not quite big enough for that. Age is also a factor: one of the stars is an F-type (a bit hotter and heavier than our sun), which usually means it would move in and out of the Main Sequence long before it reaches our sun's age, the other is part of a fairly young association of stars (i.e. all formed from the same gas cloud and usually all moving in the same general direction). So, if both these planets are young Big Jupiters, it's likely they're still contracting (like Jupiter still is today), and that's going to generate some heat.
I don't mean it actually becoming a self-sustaining star, I mean a smaller scale of nuclear reactions, like the ones going on in our own planet. But good points about other reasons.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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Alyeska wrote:
Borgholio wrote:Holy shit, I can't believe I missed that part. Still, 10x Earth's mass would be more than 2/3 the size of Uranus. Surely that would be visible on a microwave survey even at 250 AU...
Not exactly. Rocky planets do not get much bigger than Earth because as mass increases, so does density. Those planets are very dense.
I've read there's an increasing consensus that planets beyond about 1.5 Earth radius are probably mini-Neptunes rather than rocky planets with solid surfaces. With an Earth-like composition that puts you at about 5-6 Earth masses at the limit, so a 10-mass planet is most likely a mini-Neptune.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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jwl wrote:I don't mean it actually becoming a self-sustaining star, I mean a smaller scale of nuclear reactions, like the ones going on in our own planet.
Different kinds of reactions; you can't really compare the two, the mechanisms are just too different. A star's heat comes from nuclear fusion of various light elements, depending on the star's size and age. Core temperatures tend to rise over very long timescales (tens of millions to billions of years), until the star runs out of fuel. Rocky planets (possibly including gas giants with a rocky core) get their heat from nuclear fission of radioactive elements. Rocky cores will cool down slowly as the radioactive material eventually transmutes to something that isn't radioactive. Big Jupiters and brown dwarfs are hard to categorise like this, though, as they're sort of in-between cases.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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Guardsman Bass wrote:
Alyeska wrote:
Borgholio wrote:Holy shit, I can't believe I missed that part. Still, 10x Earth's mass would be more than 2/3 the size of Uranus. Surely that would be visible on a microwave survey even at 250 AU...
Not exactly. Rocky planets do not get much bigger than Earth because as mass increases, so does density. Those planets are very dense.
I've read there's an increasing consensus that planets beyond about 1.5 Earth radius are probably mini-Neptunes rather than rocky planets with solid surfaces. With an Earth-like composition that puts you at about 5-6 Earth masses at the limit, so a 10-mass planet is most likely a mini-Neptune.
The consensus actually diminished recently thanks to Kepler 10c. ~2.3 earth radii, ~17 earth masses, higher density than earth has and thus necessarily not a mini-neptune, but the first discovered mega-earth.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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SpottedKitty wrote:
jwl wrote:Both of those have a surface temperatures of thousands of kelvin; presumably either because they formed closer in and cooled or have some kind of nuclear reactions going on. If they're that hot, detecting them becomes much easier. The same may not be true of these other planets.
Nuclear reactions aren't likely, they're not quite big enough for that. Age is also a factor: one of the stars is an F-type (a bit hotter and heavier than our sun), which usually means it would move in and out of the Main Sequence long before it reaches our sun's age, the other is part of a fairly young association of stars (i.e. all formed from the same gas cloud and usually all moving in the same general direction). So, if both these planets are young Big Jupiters, it's likely they're still contracting (like Jupiter still is today), and that's going to generate some heat.
Yeah.

It was calculated by some quite competent classical physicists that gravitational collapse alone would provide enough energy to power the Sun for something on the close order of ten million years. Which is only about one thousandth of the amount of time the Sun is really going to run on nuclear fusion... but still quite respectable.

In fact, gravitational contraction was widely accepted in the 19th century as the source of power that allowed the Sun to keep shining, since it was the only thing then known that was even vaguely adequate to the task. Some physicists even argued that it was scientifically impossible for the geologists and biologists to be right about the Earth being billions of years old. After all, energy conservation and the laws of thermodynamics would cause the Sun to run out of energy long before that much time could elapse, right?

Then Bethe worked out fusion in the 1930s and, well, oops. :D

Anyway, gravitational collapse does certainly provide enough energy to keep a massive brown dwarf star (or super-Jovian planet, not that there's much difference) warm for quite a while, even if there is no fusion reaction in the core.
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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jwl wrote:It's not just distance from us we need to worry about. If a planet is a further distance from the nearest star (i.e. the sun in this case) it should be dimmer.
Well, yes, dimmer, but I'd still expect planet in the same system to send magnitudes more light towards us than any extrasolar planet, no matter how big. In fact, more light than most observable stars would be a good bet.
Simon_Jester wrote:Anyway, gravitational collapse does certainly provide enough energy to keep a massive brown dwarf star (or super-Jovian planet, not that there's much difference) warm for quite a while, even if there is no fusion reaction in the core.
And that is even ignoring the fact something the size of our own system gas giants does produce energy by fusion, it's just very slow process involving tiny fraction of mass (due to the same reasons brown/red dwarfs last orders of magnitude more than other stars).
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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Simon_Jester wrote:In fact, gravitational contraction was widely accepted in the 19th century as the source of power that allowed the Sun to keep shining, since it was the only thing then known that was even vaguely adequate to the task.
Ah, so you've never heard of the bright spark (name forgotten) who laboriously calculated how long the sun would keep on burning until it ran out of coal...? Image
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Re: 2 new planets out past Pluto

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What were these clowns thinking, announcing this publicly. Now the amount of Nibiru videos clogging up youtube will explode :wink:
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