Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

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Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by SpaceMarine93 »

Check this out:
Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission
By Jonathan Amos
Science correspondent, BBC News

Three astronauts blasted away from the Jiuquan base in Inner Mongolia on a Long March 2F rocket at 17:38 Beijing time (09:38 GMT).

The commander, Nie Haisheng, and his crew, Zhang Xiaoguang and Wang Yaping, plan to spend just under two weeks at the orbiting Tiangong space lab.

Wang is China's second female astronaut and she will beam the country's first lesson from space to students on Earth.

The crew's capsule was ejected from the upper-stage of the rocket about nine minutes after lift-off.

It should take just over 40 hours to raise the craft's orbit to the operating altitude of Tiangong some 335km (208 miles) above the planet's surface.

This mission, the fifth manned mission by China and slated to be the longest, is designated Shenzhou-10. It is the latest step in China's plan to eventually put a permanently manned station above the Earth.

Tiangong-1 is the demonstrator. It was launched in 2011 to provide a target to test rendezvous and docking technologies.

The Shenzhou-9 crew - which included China's first female astronaut, Liu Yang - hooked up with the module for nearly 10 days in June 2012.

Nie's team aims to stay a few days longer, and like the crew of Shenzhou-9 will practise both manual and automatic dockings during the mission.

Beijing hopes to launch its fully-fledged station at the turn of the decade.

It is expected to have a mass of about 60 tonnes and comprise a number of interlocking modules.

Like the International Space Station (ISS), it will have long-duration residents and be supplied by robotic freighters.
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Image from BBC. More at BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22843318

Got to hand it to the Chinese to make that much progress that fast. I wonder if they keep this up...
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

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Quick, efficient and always with gender equality. That is how communism gets things done. :mrgreen:
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by Simon_Jester »

I know China's planning to break out into the 20-30 ton payload range of what I'd call "light heavy lift" with the Long March 5; that'll make their space station plans quite practical.

This is an interesting period for space station construction IMO, because with the steady improvement of computer technology it may become possible to assemble modular stations in orbit by telepresence, which wasn't very practical until recently- and so far as I know, played no role in the ISS or Mir.

That will simplify construction a lot, I suspect.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by Guardsman Bass »

That's what I'm hoping for as well. There are experiments with manipulating robots for use in space, so it's quite possible that an improved version of those could be remotely controlled from the surface to do big chunks of the assembly work in space.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by energiewende »

idk what's so quick about this; they're entering the 1970s and skipping the really cool bits, with GDP now far higher than of the US let alone USSR of that time. The PRC clearly wants to establish moral ascendancy for their regime internally and their nationalism among foreigners, but they are some way from it yet. Moon landing might do it given the lameness of the current US space program, but really they want a Mars landing.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

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energiewende wrote:idk what's so quick about this; they're entering the 1970s and skipping the really cool bits, with GDP now far higher than of the US let alone USSR of that time. The PRC clearly wants to establish moral ascendancy for their regime internally and their nationalism among foreigners, but they are some way from it yet. Moon landing might do it given the lameness of the current US space program, but really they want a Mars landing.
Their first human spaceflight was Shenzhou 5 in 2002, ten years later they send up Shenzhou 9 which mans their space station. They're no slower than the USSR was while spending far less on it as % GDP (1.3 billion as the highest estimate, come on :) )
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by energiewende »

Which is the same time period to pass between the first ever manned spaceflight and the launch of the first ever space station. Except when those guys did it, it was new and exciting. Today it's half century old technolgoy, and they even skipped the cool bit that came between those two milestones historically - the moon landing - because it's too hard. Of course they spend less as a % of GDP since their GDP is like 10x bigger.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by PeZook »

Yeah, yeah, it's boring because oh my god somebody else did it already! This is why when India built its first nuclear weapon everyone dismissed it as "LOL WELCOME TO 1945", right? :D

To this point, only two (2) other nations managed to build and operate their own manned space stations. China is doing the exact same thing the Soviets were doing, with its own technology, but with what, ten times less money?
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JULY 20TH 1969 - The day the entire world was looking up

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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by energiewende »

India obtaining nuclear weapons was an event of mainly strategic not scientific interest. This is of minimal strategic interest.

Because no one else cares enough to bother, instead giving their money to an international project. China isn't interested in science, they're interested in establishing moral ascendancy like the US and Soviets in the 1960s (well, they were also interested in building ICBM). So the fact that China's accomplishments are mediocre at best compared to their competitors is very much the point.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by K. A. Pital »

ISS is a wasteful horrendous monster of a project which is not even a step forward for anyone since the Mir. It's just a space station. It also seeks to reduce competitiveness in space travel, which makes it useless for nations to pursue own large-scale space programs, thereby pacifying the field instead of invigorating it. In general things like the Shuttle were blunders, and costly blunders, the ISS is not a blunder but it's not a step forward either.

So of course any newcomers are welcome. Too bad the only nation caring about it is China.

Though there are far more important tasks than exploring space, I must say.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by energiewende »

I agree, but only in so far as all space stations are pretty useless. My point is that everyone else abandoned competition because they have nothing left to prove and space travel isn't actually useful for much. China has something to prove, and is doing a better job of it than in the past but not an altogether great job by any means. They're not going to contribute anything much to science; at most they will contribute to a generally favourable view of China, which on the whole is probably a bad thing.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

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energiewende wrote: Because no one else cares enough to bother, instead giving their money to an international project. China isn't interested in science, they're interested in establishing moral ascendancy like the US and Soviets in the 1960s (well, they were also interested in building ICBM). So the fact that China's accomplishments are mediocre at best compared to their competitors is very much the point.
By what standard are they mediocre? They have joined a very elite club, the fact they're about as good at it as their two competitors were in the past is mediocre only because the standard is so absurdly high, and the technology so massively complex.

And, of course, you are just plain wrong that a space program is of no strategic value: even a 1970s level of rocket technology means China can launch and maintain their own military satellites, which is a MASSIVE strategic asset. Plus the ICBM issue. Why do you think people freaked out over Iran doing its own launches?

As for the ISS, the project is absurdly overpriced - for 100 billion the station could've been several time bigger. By THAT standard, the Chinese are extraordinarily efficient by only spending a billion and change per year on their own program.
energiewende wrote:I agree, but only in so far as all space stations are pretty useless. My point is that everyone else abandoned competition because they have nothing left to prove and space travel isn't actually useful for much. China has something to prove, and is doing a better job of it than in the past but not an altogether great job by any means. They're not going to contribute anything much to science; at most they will contribute to a generally favourable view of China, which on the whole is probably a bad thing.
Space stations are definitely not useless, whatever gave you that idea? NASA has run literally hundreds of unique experiments on the ISS which just plain couldn't be done anywhere else ; By just being there, the astronauts are accumulating data and experience on long-term space habitation and improving things like closed-cycle life support technology. Then there's things like operating orbital tugs to service satellites and assembling long-range spacecraft in orbit, which the ISS can't do but the newly planned Russian station might.

And even if they are built merely because China wants to look great on the world stage, it's not like they will be used to store lots of flags ; They'll do science aboard them anyways, out of pure self-interest if nothing else. Hell, Shenzhou 10 was delayed precisely because they wanted to incorporate more complex experiments into the mission.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by K. A. Pital »

Reinvigoration of space exploration is itself a welcome development for space enthusiasts.

Space travel is useless precisely because we lack orbital infrastructure; our entire orbital presence amounts to a station that is just there as a token presence. If we had more space stations, including long-term habitats along the Stanford torus lines, and SSTO craft or very cheap rockets (see China) to maintain them, this would greatly help us in undertaking the necessary steps for potential colonization of the Solar system.

Such large-scale developments are infeasible if there's no one willing to do it and the whole field is in malaise.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by PeZook »

Hey, after all, space propellant depots that house satellite refuelling drones and deorbit dangerous debris are space stations too :)
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JULY 20TH 1969 - The day the entire world was looking up

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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

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PeZook wrote:Hey, after all, space propellant depots that house drones that refuel satellites and deorbit dangerous debris are space stations too :)
They are. Actually, sending way more machines up into space is the prerequisite to establish an infrastructure inhabited by humans.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by energiewende »

PeZook wrote:By what standard are they mediocre? They have joined a very elite club, the fact they're about as good at it as their two competitors were in the past is mediocre only because the standard is so absurdly high, and the technology so massively complex.
It's not really, it's just expensive, so if everyone already knows you're a medium power it isn't worth bothering with.
And, of course, you are just plain wrong that a space program is of no strategic value: even a 1970s level of rocket technology means China can launch and maintain their own military satellites, which is a MASSIVE strategic asset. Plus the ICBM issue. Why do you think people freaked out over Iran doing its own launches?
They already have satellites and ICBM and have done for a long time. This is about moral ascendancy; propaganda before that word because synonymous with lies.
As for the ISS, the project is absurdly overpriced - for 100 billion the station could've been several time bigger. By THAT standard, the Chinese are extraordinarily efficient by only spending a billion and change per year on their own program.
Their space station is 22x smaller than the ISS. What makes you so sure that $1.x bn/year, even believing their claims, not adjusting for purchasing parity, considering the contents to be of equal sophistication and assuming their economy is properly monetised, is not resulting in total project cost of at least $4.5bn (equal price/mass of ISS), or even not more than that?
Space stations are definitely not useless, whatever gave you that idea? NASA has run literally hundreds of unique experiments on the ISS which just plain couldn't be done anywhere else ; By just being there, the astronauts are accumulating data and experience on long-term space habitation and improving things like closed-cycle life support technology. Then there's things like operating orbital tugs to service satellites and assembling long-range spacecraft in orbit, which the ISS can't do but the newly planned Russian station might.
Yes indeed, each different bug species we prove can digest in zero gravity being a separate experiment after all. What has resulted from manned experiment in space that is well known, or deserving to be well known, for any reason other than the fact it was developed in space (or for use by other useless manned space projects)?
Stas Bush wrote:very cheap rockets
The really important advance. But the improvements on the scale needed won't come from building lots of rockets, and certainly not from manned space laboratories, but from slow incremental improvements in materials science.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

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energiewende wrote: It's not really, it's just expensive, so if everyone already knows you're a medium power it isn't worth bothering with.
Yeah, and I guess it's expensive because economic supervillains made it so?

The technology's expensive precisely because it's so complex, and if you want to have in-house capability for manned spaceflight you need to acquire a whole host of industries and skills.
energiewende wrote:They already have satellites and ICBM and have done for a long time. This is about moral ascendancy; propaganda before that word because synonymous with lies.
Satellites are not equal. The Chinese have recently gained the capability to launch GPS birds and proper spy satellites equipped with large aperture telescopes, as well as better and more capable communications equipment. And much like with the Titan IV, this capability was developed as an offshoot of the requirements of their civilian space program.

The GPS system and KH series spy satellites are two cornerstones of US military superiority right now, so the Chinese getting a 25 ton to LEO booster is actually a seriously big deal, strategically speaking.

As for ICBMs, they're likewise not equal, and more importantly producing new and better models requirer experience and skillsets that are interchangeable with the space program: every bit of experience gained guiding civilian rockets to orbit helps develop better techniques for ICBMs, make them more reliable and so forth.
Their space station is 22x smaller than the ISS. What makes you so sure that $1.x bn/year, even believing their claims, not adjusting for purchasing parity, considering the contents to be of equal sophistication and assuming their economy is properly monetised, is not resulting in total project cost of at least $4.5bn (equal price/mass of ISS), or even not more than that?
Oh yeah how can I be sure the actual expenditure is not actually FIVE TIMES LARGER! How indeed! I could say the same thing about NASA budgets. How do we know the US isn't actually secretly spending TRILLIONS on their space program? Huh? Huh?!

But, more seriously: First of all, the 1.3 billion figure is an Euroconsult estimate, not a Chinese claim. The Chinese actually say they're spending about half that.

Second, that is the total spending on their space program, including launch vehicles, satellites and manned spaceflight, so it's ridiculous to calculate the cost of Tiangong-1 based on this. Using the same standard I could say the ISS is actually six times more expensive by just adding the entire NASA budget through the period of its construction and the cost of the entire Shuttle program plus all the unmanned missions before and after, so...
Yes indeed, each different bug species we prove can digest in zero gravity being a separate experiment after all. What has resulted from manned experiment in space that is well known, or deserving to be well known, for any reason other than the fact it was developed in space (or for use by other useless manned space projects)?
Oh my God, the ISS only does basic research! Which is of course useless! This is clear from the fact the world's scientific community always wanted to do all these experiments but couldn't, and each mission has to carefully weed out proposals because there's no way to fly them all. And of course the standard of scientific usefulness is a discovery being "well known" :D

By that standard no lab on Earth is useful, either because 90% of them spend all their time gathering data about absurdly boring shit. You might have a point saying the ISS is not cost effective, but generalizing this to the idea of space stations in general is ridiculous.

And what about other uses for space stations, such as fuel depots, satellite repair yards, construction of long-range probes and spaceships? You said space stations in general were pretty useless, remember?
The really important advance. But the improvements on the scale needed won't come from building lots of rockets, and certainly not from manned space laboratories, but from slow incremental improvements in materials science.
Yes, materials science will magically make it possible to build cheap rockets without the engineering experience coming from mass production, or management experience from frequent launches :D

Out of every flight, equal parts of the cost comes from the hardware itself and from launch servicing (because you need to pay a lot of very skilled people to make them happen). You won't be able to get the costs down into the "very cheap" category without launching regular flights.
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JULY 20TH 1969 - The day the entire world was looking up

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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by energiewende »

PeZook wrote:Yeah, and I guess it's expensive because economic supervillains made it so?

The technology's expensive precisely because it's so complex, and if you want to have in-house capability for manned spaceflight you need to acquire a whole host of industries and skills.
Sadly no. Consider how expensive it would be to build a 1m x 1m x 1m block of gold, then compare to its complexity. Not that space travel is quite that bad, but a lot of it is, ie. it costs weight in silver to lift food and water to the station.
the Chinese getting a 25 ton to LEO booster is actually a seriously big deal, strategically speaking.

As for ICBMs, they're likewise not equal, and more importantly producing new and better models requirer experience and skillsets that are interchangeable with the space program
Yes but not building space stations. Anyway, their progress in boosters has been slow. US was making boosters to take them to the moon before now.
Their space station is 22x smaller than the ISS. What makes you so sure that $1.x bn/year, even believing their claims, not adjusting for purchasing parity, considering the contents to be of equal sophistication and assuming their economy is properly monetised, is not resulting in total project cost of at least $4.5bn (equal price/mass of ISS), or even not more than that?
Oh yeah how can I be sure the actual expenditure is not actually FIVE TIMES LARGER! How indeed! I could say the same thing about NASA budgets. How do we know the US isn't actually secretly spending TRILLIONS on their space program? Huh? Huh?!
You quoted an annual budget and a total program cost. The program will be drawing from the budget for 15-20 years, although of course not all of it. NASA spends about 6x less each year than the total ISS cost.

US budgets can be taken seriously because they're publicly authorised by relatively non-corrupt institutions, and almost all major international comparisons are made in USD.
Yes indeed, each different bug species we prove can digest in zero gravity being a separate experiment after all. What has resulted from manned experiment in space that is well known, or deserving to be well known, for any reason other than the fact it was developed in space (or for use by other useless manned space projects)?
Oh my God, the ISS only does basic research! Which is of course useless! This is clear from the fact the world's scientific community always wanted to do all these experiments but couldn't, and each mission has to carefully weed out proposals because there's no way to fly them all. And of course the standard of scientific usefulness is a discovery being "well known" :D

By that standard no lab on Earth is useful, either because 90% of them spend all their time gathering data about absurdly boring shit. You might have a point saying the ISS is not cost effective, but generalizing this to the idea of space stations in general is ridiculous.

And what about other uses for space stations, such as fuel depots, satellite repair yards, construction of long-range probes and spaceships? You said space stations in general were pretty useless, remember?
Can you name one? The LHC does basic research and yet I can understand the importance of their work, in fact someone came to give a talk at my workplace about it the other week. Why did no one ever come to give me a talk about the vital breakthroughs of manned space travel in basic fields such as exomammal digestion? btw, the ISS budget could pay for the whole of CERN for 100 years. CERN employs 4,000 scientists using 10 machines, not just the LHC. The ISS has a crew of 6.

And yes I gladly exclude ideas that have never been tried or seriously proposed, because they are even more silly.
The really important advance. But the improvements on the scale needed won't come from building lots of rockets, and certainly not from manned space laboratories, but from slow incremental improvements in materials science.
Yes, materials science will magically make it possible to build cheap rockets without the engineering experience coming from mass production, or management experience from frequent launches :D

Out of every flight, equal parts of the cost comes from the hardware itself and from launch servicing (because you need to pay a lot of very skilled people to make them happen). You won't be able to get the costs down into the "very cheap" category without launching regular flights.
There isn't massive scope for cost reductions via mass production here. First, because you have to think of something to actually do with all the rockets you mass produce, and we can't, and second, because the main driver of cost is the sheer bulk of material required, and those materials are already mass produced.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

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energiewende wrote:btw, the ISS budget could pay for the whole of CERN for 100 years. CERN employs 4,000 scientists using 10 machines, not just the LHC. The ISS has a crew of 6.
Aww come on. CERN and ISS work on different fields, anything shipped to the ISS costs hundreds of millions of launch costs alone, CERN can do with trucks and cheap subcontractors. Who has the more machines and who has the more scientists does not mean a damn thing, and the fact you are comparing apples to oranges does not help.
Sadly no. Consider how expensive it would be to build a 1m x 1m x 1m block of gold, then compare to its complexity.
You have no grasp of the complexity of designing and operating a rocket. If to launch a Proton you must cough up 90-ish million bucks, it's not because it's gold-plated or Russians are thieves (wait to see the prices of US-made rockets), but because making the parts is complex as hell and there is a too small market to invest in serious mass-production facilities.

Think of Intel's CPUs. That's a high-purity high-flatness silicon piece of shit etched at 22 nanometer precision containing billions of transistors and other crap, made in factories where they have fucking airlocks to keep dust out and robots and the few workers are all suited up like surgeons, and a major design team keeping that shit upgraded to not lose their edge.
It is admittedly harder and more expensive than making a rocket, yet its costs are affordable. Why? Because they make a completely mindboggingly huge amount of them.

While for example only 400-ish Proton rockets flew since 1965.
Yes but not building space stations. Anyway, their progress in boosters has been slow. US was making boosters to take them to the moon before now.
Technically speaking, rocket #5 is not the same as rocket #4, since they are always rebuilt from scratch, every launch done allows the engineers to optimize the design and apply the mods to the new one. So in this respect, anything that requires them to launch more rockets is improving their design.

Going to the fucking moon is completely irrelevant now as it was back then, beyond bragging rights.
Also, you may not know that the difference between a space station and a spacecraft is very blurry. You can attach a half-decent engine to the ISS and send it in lunar orbit the same way the chinese can do with their own station.

And this would be a pretty good idea actually. Since there is no hurry to beat the Soviets like back then, why not building a fucking full-sized spacecraft in orbit and then send it to the Moon to do some REAL science instead of sending there 3 people and a flag in a tuna can with the most humongous and expensive rocket mankind ever designed?

And anyway, that's not "the US" it was Von Braun and ex-nazi rocket scientists that designed US rockets after the WWII. US-made stuff kept going BOOM.
There isn't massive scope for cost reductions via mass production here. First, because you have to think of something to actually do with all the rockets you mass produce, and we can't,
Propellant depots and satellite-moving tugs are promising as spiral-starters.

When you are boosting propellant you can afford to lose 10-15% or even more of the shipments, and this allows a BIG cost reduction in rocket manufacturing costs, while launching a lot of rockets allows to split the fixed costs (landing pad and personnel) on more launches, making every launch cheaper.

As it is now, propellant in orbit has a price of around 3-4 millions per ton, just because it is in orbit and not on the ground. (That's the cost of putting a ton of anything into orbit, btw)
But if you used the tricks above, it cost you far less than that to put propellant there. Which is where profit kicks in.
Orbital propellant depots coupled with a decent orbital tug system manage to be more competitive than the current satellite launching system.

As now the rocket carrying the sat does not need to carry the fuel to bring the sat beyond LEO or to a weird orbit, and that allows to ditch the high-payload rockets, that cost more, and choose smaller ones, with 20-30 millions of savings even with modern launch costs.

This allows smaller rockets like the Soyuz (or cheap crappy ones like the Zenits) to be launched more often, and allows enough cost reduction from both initial mass-production and more-launches-per-year-from-the-same-pad to allow a lot of other lesser institutions to invest in space experiments and space tourism, that will drive costs down even further.
and second, because the main driver of cost is the sheer bulk of material required, and those materials are already mass produced.
hahahahahhahahaha. No. A rocket is more than 90% fuel by mass and most of its empty mass is taken by dumb oversized iron tanks. Liquid hydrogen and oxygen don't cost so much, likewise for kerosene and iron.

The cost of making a rocket is mainly in the man-hours put into assembling the things. Which is because the assembly line itself isn't producing enough of the stuff to be worth automating, which would drive down the costs.

Another major cost is the man-hours for the launch pad workers, they are payed by the month, not by how much rockets they launch, so the more rockets they launch per month, the less each customer has to pay for them to receive the same wage.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by energiewende »

someone_else wrote:
energiewende wrote:btw, the ISS budget could pay for the whole of CERN for 100 years. CERN employs 4,000 scientists using 10 machines, not just the LHC. The ISS has a crew of 6.
Aww come on. CERN and ISS work on different fields, anything shipped to the ISS costs hundreds of millions of launch costs alone, CERN can do with trucks and cheap subcontractors. Who has the more machines and who has the more scientists does not mean a damn thing, and the fact you are comparing apples to oranges does not help.
The fact that CERN is so much cheaper and easier to operate is one big reason why it is superior. That's the only sense in which I am comparing apples to lemons.

Also, while I often cut out bloat myself, you can't cut out my asking for an example of any major breakthrough from space research, since that's central to the debate.
Sadly no. Consider how expensive it would be to build a 1m x 1m x 1m block of gold, then compare to its complexity.
You have no grasp of the complexity of designing and operating a rocket. If to launch a Proton you must cough up 90-ish million bucks, it's not because it's gold-plated or Russians are thieves (wait to see the prices of US-made rockets), but because making the parts is complex as hell and there is a too small market to invest in serious mass-production facilities.
It's because you need to buy 500t of solid propellant. Building solid propellant isn't super complex it's just expensive to procure such large quantities. We say a lot of simple things aren't rocket science, well, nor is rocket science.
Think of Intel's CPUs.
The exactly opposite situation - the raw materials cost effectively nothing and all the cost is R&D.
Going to the fucking moon is completely irrelevant now as it was back then, beyond bragging rights.
Well we're half in agreement. The whole manned space program is irrelevant, but at least moon landings give good bragging rights.
As now the rocket carrying the sat does not need to carry the fuel to bring the sat beyond LEO
Putting a satellite into LEO is responsible for almost the entire delta V requirement. For that matter getting to LEO is more than half the delta v requirement of the moon landing. Refueling things in orbit only makes sense if you want to go somewhere much further away (in delta V terms) than orbit, and there is no practical use for this, which is why these depots don't exist.
and second, because the main driver of cost is the sheer bulk of material required, and those materials are already mass produced.
hahahahahhahahaha. No. A rocket is more than 90% fuel by mass and most of its empty mass is taken by dumb oversized iron tanks. Liquid hydrogen and oxygen don't cost so much, likewise for kerosene and iron.
Yes that is exactly my point. There is no big cost saving available in the production of solid propellant or liquid hydrogen. They are generic bulk industrial products that are already manufactured on razor thin margins.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by PeZook »

energiewende wrote: Sadly no. Consider how expensive it would be to build a 1m x 1m x 1m block of gold, then compare to its complexity. Not that space travel is quite that bad, but a lot of it is, ie. it costs weight in silver to lift food and water to the station.
Sadly, yes. Are you kidding me? Rocket engines are not fucking golden blocks, jesus. They're high-tolerance, labor-intensive pieces of machinery. In fact, manned spacecraft are the most complex vehicles ever built: the STS complex contains 2.5 million moving parts.

This is why it costs so much to build and launch them: they're built by hand, by highly paid and rare specialists working in entire specialized factories set up explicitly for the purpose of building rockets.
Yes but not building space stations. Anyway, their progress in boosters has been slow. US was making boosters to take them to the moon before now.
The US was also spending a lot of money to get that speed. The Apollo program cost something between 120 and 150 billion 2011 dollars.
You quoted an annual budget and a total program cost. The program will be drawing from the budget for 15-20 years, although of course not all of it. NASA spends about 6x less each year than the total ISS cost.
The Tiangong program began in 1999 and Tiangong-1 was launched in 2011 ; Skylab took from 1962 to launch in 1973 ; The similar Salyut program started in 1964 and had its first launch in 1971.

So tell me again how the Chinese are somehow being slow when in fact they're about in the middle of the stack...while using tiny budgets (Salyut/Soyuz cost a staggering 107 billion 2011 dollars, Skylab cost only 10 or so but got away with using hardware slated for the Apollo program which was already paid for under a different budgetary document).

So yeah. They're pretty efficient, even if we assume the budget was 1.3 billion from 1999 and was being spent only on Shenzhou/Tiangong.
US budgets can be taken seriously because they're publicly authorised by relatively non-corrupt institutions, and almost all major international comparisons are made in USD.
Which is why I didn't use the Chinese claim, but an estimate by an independent group.
Can you name one? The LHC does basic research and yet I can understand the importance of their work, in fact someone came to give a talk at my workplace about it the other week. Why did no one ever come to give me a talk about the vital breakthroughs of manned space travel in basic fields such as exomammal digestion? btw, the ISS budget could pay for the whole of CERN for 100 years. CERN employs 4,000 scientists using 10 machines, not just the LHC. The ISS has a crew of 6.
There are literally THOUSANDS of labs all over the world which do nothing more than investigate and catalogue tedious shit, which are also never going to be mentioned around your workplace (which is now apparently the standard by which usefulness of all research is judged). Are they all "pretty much useless"?

FURTHERMORE, you said "useless", not "cost ineffective", but you have now quietly shifted the goal posts and began arguing cost. Congratulations on being dishonest.
And yes I gladly exclude ideas that have never been tried or seriously proposed, because they are even more silly.
They HAVE been seriously proposed. In fact, propellant depots are a major part of NASA's plans to make space access more affordable - to that end, several ISS missions conducted tests of automated orbital refuelling and satellite repair technologies.

OPSEK is also a serious proposal by the Russians.
There isn't massive scope for cost reductions via mass production here. First, because you have to think of something to actually do with all the rockets you mass produce, and we can't, and second, because the main driver of cost is the sheer bulk of material required, and those materials are already mass produced.
No, the bulk materials are almost comically cheap compared to the overall launch cost. Do you know how much solid propellant for Shuttle SRBs cost?

Betwen 12 and 23 million per booster, INCLUDING servicing.

The entire launch cost of the STS stack? 1 billion or so.

Saying costs are driven by propellant is absurdly ridiculous. The costs are equally divided between producing the rockets (because of the craftsmanship nature of such) and procedures (handling, payload integration, technical checkouts and such), witht he propellant itself making up a tiny percentaggee.
energiewende wrote: It's because you need to buy 500t of solid propellant. Building solid propellant isn't super complex it's just expensive to procure such large quantities. We say a lot of simple things aren't rocket science, well, nor is rocket science.
It's almost trivially cheap, and more to the point, there are no currently operational manned rockets which use solid propellant right now.
energiewende wrote: Putting a satellite into LEO is responsible for almost the entire delta V requirement. For that matter getting to LEO is more than half the delta v requirement of the moon landing. Refueling things in orbit only makes sense if you want to go somewhere much further away (in delta V terms) than orbit, and there is no practical use for this, which is why these depots don't exist.
BZZZT, wrong! Delta-V required to go from LEO to a geostationary orbit is between 3.5-6 km/s, so it's actually a very significant percentage of the total delta-v of such a booster.

And, naturally, you are at all aware that delta-v is a function of mass, right? As in, with less payload the same amount of fuel gives you more delta-v, as dictated by the rocket equation?

Less mass you have to haul up means less fuel in the first two stages, which means smaller boosters, which means less complex engines, less difficult ground handling and faster launch turnarounds, which in turn translates to cheaper and cheaper rockets.

In fact, if all satellite tugs are in orbit, you essentially have a reuseable upper transfer stage which you can just delete from the launch vehicle altogether. There's other benefits, too, like less debris in LEO.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by Jub »

Not to over simplify things, but here are just a few reasons why space stations, fuel depots, and orbital tugs are useful:

1) Satellite repair, refueling, and repositioning becomes cheaper as you no longer need space on a launch for the parts, fuel, and manpower. Plus you might even launch satellites without maneuvering fuel or attached solar panels and save some launch weight. You might even take to building them in space and that will make launching a new comm sat even cheaper.

2) Fueling for long range missions such as exploration of the solar system or even potential asteroid mining missions. This is a fairly obvious use, but it's obvious for how good an idea it is.

3) Manufacturing things that are impossible, difficult, or dangerous to do planet side. Certain things will just be easier to make in space and then drop back down as finished products. This gets even better if you can supply them, even partially, from space. Of course you might also want to make certain chemicals and products in space as well due to the danger or pollution.

Those are just a few ideas off the top of my head and ignore the science and colonization aspects as those are less immediately useful.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by someone_else »

The fact that CERN is so much cheaper and easier to operate is one big reason why it is superior. That's the only sense in which I am comparing apples to lemons.
The fact CERN works on something different alltogether in a completely different environment with completely different requirements renders invalid the comparison, because it isn't a comparison. Might as well compare ISS to a naval shipyard.
Also, while I often cut out bloat myself, you can't cut out my asking for an example of any major breakthrough from space research, since that's central to the debate.
I answer to what I can, I don't like climbing mirrors for the hell of it. I'm more knowledgeable in the engineering parts of the matter.
Anyway, since none attempted, I'll try with what I remember.
From probes we got a ton of info about climate models used to predict weather on Earth, especially by looking at Venus.
A lot of new materials and tech were developed for use in space and then found use on the ground in other ways. Here to read more.

And of course, being science a bitch, you don't really know what is beyond the corner until you go and look beyond the corner, so unless someone takes up and goes there we will never know what we could learn from space.

That the ISS is a kind of weird underperforming thing... heh, that's what happens when you have engineers fighting with idiot Senators that want to divert that money to pork-barreling or into defence toys.
Even to get Shuttle to replace Saturns (that were going to be axed due to costs) they had to spew bullshit about low costs. It's a high cost, but not as high as developing F-22 or another imba military toy with debatable uses.
Or a(nother) tax cut to the rich.
It's because you need to buy 500t of solid propellant. Building solid propellant isn't super complex it's just expensive to procure such large quantities. We say a lot of simple things aren't rocket science, well, nor is rocket science.
This is wrong. Solids are cheaper than liquids at the same mass, but they suck big way on performance (they have lots of thrust but no endurance, good to get out of atmosphere FAST, but useless to achieve orbital speed and not come down again in a few minutes) and are used only in boosters.
Which are rare in rocketry nowadays anyway because we can do better, Soyuz uses lox/kerosene, which is 0.50 per kg for kerosene and 0.22 per kg for lox (liquid oxigen) (figures converted in modern dollars).

Soyuz needs around 162,086 Kg of fuel (sum of total mass of each stage minus the empty mass of each stage), and since I don't give a shit about calculating the right % of lox and kerosene for the sake of this post, I'll assume that it's all kerosene since it costs more.
81'043 $. Yes, less than 100 thousand bucks for 162 tons of fuel. It is a lot for an average joe, but on a vehicle that states a launch cost between 50 and 60 millions, it's within rounding error.

Proton is another fun specimen, and is in a bigger league. No solids, but it uses this fuel which is chemical stuff, not simple lox/kerosene. Costs are around 7.77 $ per kg if you do it with 1960 tech and environmental safety regulations or 65 $ per kg if you do it with modern US environmental safety regulations (Russia does not give a shit about such regulations so it's closer if not lower to the 1960 no-regulation figure).
So, Proton burns 641,975 kg of that mixture per launch (calculated the same as above). Costs are around 4'988'145 $.
Anyway a Proton costs around 85-100 millions apiece to the customer. Even shaving 4-6 millions from that isn't a major cut.

And please note that bulk of US-made rockets even if using lox/lh2 which cost less than this (9.8 $ per kg) manage to cost twice or more (apart from SpaceX ones). Even the whole space shuttle's main tank (the orange thing) contained only 7-ish million $ worth of fuel. Even if we magically cut that to 0, the total cost of the program does not change. And any account you can find will say that if it did more launches per year it would have costed less. Must be a conspiracy of the lox/lh2 producing companies :lol:.
Feel free to use Astronautix to do some calcs on your own. That's the best site to get numbers about rocketry.
Well we're half in agreement. The whole manned space program is irrelevant, but at least moon landings give good bragging rights.
Going somewhere just to plant flags means that once you did it, everything is "done" and stuff is dismantled and placed in museums. Great use of taxpayer money, placing flags on space rocks and filling museums of dead machines. Because life is all about saying "im better than you, so fuck off".

The ISS is costing a fraction of Apollo Program and even if it is not operating at anywhere near 30% of its theoretical usefullness it's still doing some science while Apollo was just a pissing contest.
Putting a satellite into LEO is responsible for almost the entire delta V requirement. For that matter getting to LEO is more than half the delta v requirement of the moon landing. Refueling things in orbit only makes sense if you want to go somewhere much further away (in delta V terms) than orbit
You are forgetting the delta-v cost to place stuff in a specific orbit. Anyway, this is mainly a matter of cost, as rocket cost does not scale linearly with size. Adding 1 km/s of delta-v on top adds a significant cost.

If you can refuel in orbit, you could go to the moon again with an exact copy of a full Apollo-mission saturn V without the first two stages (only used to lift stuff in LEO). Within a year with three separate commercial rocket launches and less than 250 millions of launch costs (costs of re-developing and making again stuff you are sending to the moon aside, of course).
A couple Protons for the fuel and the empty vehicle (or a bunch of cheaper Zenits) and a Soyuz for the capsule with the people on it. Compare this to the costs of a single saturn V launch and laugh.
With US-made stuff the price is around double, still far better than the single-BIG-one solution.

Anyway, since none in the commercial sector is really giving a fuck about going to the moon eve at these prices, but there is a market for placing sats in specific orbits, let's do a better example of what I was talking about.
A Proton has 21 tons of payload to LEO, and it costs 85-100 millions a pop.
The same Proton can bring only 4.5 tons to GTO that is not GEO. From that to GEO (and its specific orbit) the customer has to add a tug that shrinks the actual payload below half of that, around 2 tons on average.

What does that mean? 20-ish tons of payload are used up by additional non-cryogenic fuel and the tug.

If you can carry cryogenic up with cheaper crappy rockets AND you have a cryogenic-fuel tug already in orbit, you can change things.

Protons use crappier fuel, that in space has ISP of 333 seconds, but you can do without, and use lox/Lh2 which has ISP of 451 seconds and save 35% of fuel mass so that's only 13 tons of fuel you need up there.
You can launch that up with a Zenit for 40-ish millions a pop. And have the satellite of the customer launched up to LEO with say 1/3 of the cost of a single Soyuz rocket launch (as it is now launching 3 different sats at the same time to LEO, the costs of a single launch are shared), or around 16 millions.
Total launch cost up to this point: 56 millions.

So to make it look more competitive than a single Proton you need to ask less than 30-35 millions for the reusable space tug and the reusable (or not, it's just a dumb tank after all) propellant depot.
I think it's doable man, it's just a friggin modified upper stage and it is reusable. :lol:

This setup can also go to a satellite and move it around to repurpose it, or if you add a decent toolbox can do some repairs, by cannibalizing equipment from old and obsolete sats already there.
DARPA is for example is researching how to do this with its Phoenix project.
there is no practical use for this, which is why these depots don't exist.
The main reason why orbital depots don't exist yet is:
-they are at the moment developing ways to mate spacecraft in a less idiotic way than slamming on each other like back in the day, for example extending a retractable beam and catching the other craft and then reel it in, similar to the ISS and its Canadarm, but less mass and energy required. This works in vomit-comet small-scale tests, and bigger prototypes are on their way.
-the cash available to do so is relatively limited so the progress is relatively slow. If you look at the fast progress done in the Space race days, that's only because the two biggest superpowers were dumping completely ridiculous amounts of money in the effort.

Still, NASA did send up a refueling experiment to the ISS (was supposed to test the difficulty of refueling satellites and other stuff that was not really designed to be refueled but is at the moment up there) with the latest Shuttle launch and all went very well, but I can understand that it didn't make headlines.
And again if you look at the stuff made by the ULA (joint venture of Lockeed and Boeing, not a bunch of hippies), you find scientific/engineering papers that describe depots like this "The advantages of these depots are enormous and they provide unmatched performance and reliability benefits once the technology is matured." Who is the second writer? the manager of Advanced Projects in the ULA, the man whose job is to keep them improving.
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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by PeZook »

I would dispute the claim that Apollo was scientifically useless. The geological samples acquired is the stuff of legends: while we could probably do better for less TODAY with automated probes, getting high-quality core drill samples back then was something only humans could have possibly done.

And scientists today are still working on the 382kg of lunar samples and discovering new things.

Of course, yeah, the constraints of it being a race, rather than a careful, long-term plan forced the mission to be done the way it was done and thus made the program vulnerable to being axed the moment people lost interest.
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Signature dedicated to the greatest achievement of mankind.

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Re: Shenzhou-10: China launches next manned space mission

Post by someone_else »

Well, I admit that I did exaggerate it a bit, just to underscore that the science in Apollo was a very low priority.
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--
Stereotypical spacecraft are pressurized.
Less realistic spacecraft are pressurized to hold breathing atmosphere.
Realistic spacecraft are pressurized because they are flying propellant tanks. -Isaac Kuo

--
Good art has function as well as form. I hesitate to spend more than $50 on decorations of any kind unless they can be used to pummel an intruder into submission. -Sriad
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