[Official Thread] OBAMA WINS RE-ELECTION

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[Official Thread] OBAMA WINS RE-ELECTION

Postby Lord Zentei » 2012-01-03 09:59pm

Is anyone else following this on the official webpage? There's also analysis on the NYT page.

Thus far, with 31% reporting, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul are virtually tied with about 23% each. Newt Gingrich is at 13%, Rick Perry at 10% and Bachmann at 6%. Huntsman and Roemer are barely registering, which is hardly surprising given how little they put into the race over there. Cain got a few votes, despite no longer being in the race, but that smattering is also insignificant. These figures haven't changed all that significantly since the reporting got up to 10%+

Looks like that Santorum Surge wasn't just hot air. Ugh. Well, there's always New Hampshire to knock him down.
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Mr Bean » 2012-01-03 10:09pm

Destructionator XIII wrote:Remember that Iowa is generally a very conservative state, so it's not really surprising that they would be more on Santorum's side than the country as a whole.

A very conservative state that votes Democratic in the general election most years. More accurate to say, the Republican Primary has one of the highest amounts of evangelicals out of anyplace in the country. I'm surprised by Pauls relatively poor showing as he generally out-preforms his polling since his voter base is far more dedicated than the norm.

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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Zinegata » 2012-01-03 11:37pm

Looks like Romney effectively wins this one. Even if he finishes second, he's so close to Santorum that it probably won't matter.

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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Lord Zentei » 2012-01-03 11:44pm

Yeah, probably.

Santorum: 28,895 votes, 24.6%
Romney: 28,879 votes, 24.6%
Paul: 25,044 votes, 21.3%

96% reporting.

Damn, that's close.

Gingrich will have a hard time gaining new momentum, especially with all those negative ads.
Ron Paul would have needed a win in Iowa IMHO.

So... Mittens is most likely the de facto winner.
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Lord Zentei » 2012-01-04 01:18am

Heh:

Nate Silver wrote:According to Google and CNN, Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney by 18 votes - 29,944 to 29,926 - with two precincts yet to report results.

One of the precincts is in Keokuk County, which has slightly favored Mr. Santorum tonight, and the other is in Clinton County, which has slightly favored Mr. Romney.

This has really been a fun caucus to follow. Moreso than expected.

In other news, Rick Perry has decided to go back home to mull things over. He apparently was going to throw in the towel outright earlier, but changed his mind about it.
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Zinegata » 2012-01-04 01:24am

Yeah, I'm really surprised by the Romney votes. I feel like the Iowans are trying to tell the country "We're not that crazy".

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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby JME2 » 2012-01-04 01:57am

Zinegata wrote:Yeah, I'm really surprised by the Romney votes. I feel like the Iowans are trying to tell the country "We're not that crazy".


Well, best of luck to them.

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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Flagg » 2012-01-04 02:41am

Well, despite the medias ignorant reporting of a Romney win, both he and Santorum get 11 delegates each, so it's a tie for first.
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Zinegata » 2012-01-04 02:45am

Wow. Romney actually got ahead by 8 votes. :shock:

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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Eframepilot » 2012-01-04 02:56am

A lead of 8 votes isn't significant enough even for the media. Santorum wins the expectations game in Iowa. Unfortunately for him, he's still Rick Santorum.

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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby The Romulan Republic » 2012-01-04 04:54am

So much for Ron Paul's rise to power?

Santorum did remarkably (and disturbingly) well. But now Romney will probably blow Santorum away in New Hampshire.

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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby bobalot » 2012-01-04 05:16am

The Romulan Republic wrote:So much for Ron Paul's rise to power?

Santorum did remarkably (and disturbingly) well. But now Romney will probably blow Santorum away in New Hampshire.

I think Romney will actually be quite pleased. Despite the polls, it appeared many people expected him to come second (or worse).
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby SirNitram » 2012-01-04 05:38am

Santorum wins the expectations game, which is a real pity if he can't keep himself flashing in the pan until New Hampshire. Or maybe I'm over-estimating the fickleness of the current GOP voters. Either way, Romney funneled money into that state like crazy and only came eight votes ahead.

Ron Paul, well, I expected him to win. While, technically, he gets the same number of delegates as Santorum and Romney, third place for the man with the built-in organization advantage means he'll be discounted soon, and likely won't remain in the primaries very long.
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Mr Bean » 2012-01-04 09:11am

10AM conference by Bachmann please tell me she's dropping out and endorsing Sanatorium.

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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Broken » 2012-01-04 10:17am

Lord Zentei wrote: Looks like that Santorum Surge wasn't just hot air. Ugh. Well, there's always New Hampshire to knock him down.


I wouldn't be too sure of that. New Hampshire is next of course, but a number of the candidates are not even bothering with that state and skipping right on down to South Carolina. Now that the nomination process is not winner-take-all for the Republicans, they can get away with basically ignoring New Hampshire as the delegate count is low, the demographics are not typical Republican (South Carolina is much closer to that for the Republicans), and they (iirc) let Independents vote in their primary. All in all, you'll get Romney and Huntsman campaigning hard in New Hampshire to proven they are moderate, electable Republicans while the other candidates take their bag of crazy on down to South Carolina to fight for the support of the Republican base.
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby DaveJB » 2012-01-04 11:41am

Mr Bean wrote:10AM conference by Bachmann please tell me she's dropping out and endorsing Sanatorium.

It's now confirmed that she's dropped out - however, it looks like she won't be endorsing any of the other candidates for the time being.

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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Mr Bean » 2012-01-04 12:21pm

The meanest thing that Independents could do right now is throw New Hampshire to Sanatorium or Paul as either result would break the inevitable campaign that Romney has been running from the start. Since it looks like Perry is going out after South Carolina or New Hampshire since he just canceled a bucket of appearances and went back to Texas

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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Lord Zentei » 2012-01-04 12:48pm

According to the videos on the official caucus website, Bachmann has vowed to stay in the race. There go a few social conservative votes which might otherwise have energized Santorum. More will be stripped away if Perry stays in the race too.

Also, Gingrich is already in New Hampshire and conceded Iowa, congratulating Rick Santorum and Ron Paul (in other words, ignoring Mittens, heh).
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Lord Zentei » 2012-01-04 01:24pm

Spoke too soon:

BBC wrote:Michele Bachmann halts presidential campaign

Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann has ended her campaign for the White House.

The Tea Party favourite made the announcement in Des Moines, Iowa, where she finished a disappointing sixth in the state's caucuses on Tuesday.

Her withdrawal from the field leaves six other contenders in the presidential race.

They are vying to become the Republican nominee to challenge President Barack Obama for the White House in November.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won Iowa's caucuses by a wafer-thin margin over former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.

There was speculation that Texas Governor Rick Perry, who finished fifth, might also drop out, but he tweeted on Wednesday: "Here we come South Carolina!!!"

The Perry campaign confirmed he would attend a Republican debate on Saturday in New Hampshire.

Mrs Bachmann, 55, told a news conference on Wednesday: "Last night the people of Iowa spoke with a very clear voice and so I have decided to stand aside."

She said she had "no regrets".

Mrs Bachmann did not endorse another candidate, but said: "I believe that we must rally around the person that our country and our party and our people select to be that standard bearer."

She spoke at length about her reasons for entering the race, denouncing President Obama's healthcare reforms as "left-wing social engineering", which "endangered the very future" of the US.

Mrs Bachmann, who pitched for the evangelical Christian vote, was briefly the front-runner back in August. But after fundraising woes and staff departures, she could only win 5% of votes in the state where she was born.

After a nailbiting count Mr Romney was declared the winner in Iowa in the early hours of Wednesday.

He squeaked to victory by just eight votes, with 30,015 ballots (24.55%) against 30,007 for Mr Santorum (24.54%).

Texas congressman Ron Paul, a libertarian-leaning anti-war candidate who has attracted many younger voters, came third with 21.5% of votes.

A record 122,000 straw ballots were cast by Republicans in the largely rural state.

Before his wafer-thin victory, Mr Romney announced another high-profile endorsement, this time from Arizona Senator John McCain, the 2008 Republican nominee.

The focus now turns to New Hampshire, Mr Romney's political heartland, where a primary election will be held on Tuesday.

Mr Romney's well-financed political machine has snapped up television advertising space in the key swing state of Florida, which holds its primary at the end of this month.

He is already spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on TV ads in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Meanwhile, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who came fourth in Iowa, set his sights on Mr Romney.


Well, so much for her, then. This might be bad for Mittens, since it will help concentrate the Not-Romney votes.
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Mr. Coffee » 2012-01-04 04:49pm

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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Dalton » 2012-01-04 06:08pm

SirNitram wrote:Ron Paul, well, I expected him to win. While, technically, he gets the same number of delegates as Santorum and Romney, third place for the man with the built-in organization advantage means he'll be discounted soon, and likely won't remain in the primaries very long.

Huh? Romney and Santorum both got 11, and Paul got 3, for a total of 25.
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Dominus Atheos » 2012-01-04 06:20pm

Where are you getting those numbers from? The AP reports that Romney gets 13 and Santorum gets 12.
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Dalton » 2012-01-04 06:53pm

Dominus Atheos wrote:Where are you getting those numbers from? The AP reports that Romney gets 13 and Santorum gets 12.

These numbers are NBC News's projection. Delegates won't be officially assigned until the RNC in August. CNN has a different projection entirely. Didn't know that, thought it was the same across the board, but delegates were apparently only pledged.
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Ahriman238 » 2012-01-04 07:02pm

Last I heard was Romney was ahead, by a piddling 8 points. Close enough to effectively be a tie, though that may be some of the inaccurate reporting people are complaining of?

Romney was governor of my state, and he was a fairly crappy governor. If he made president, I see him as being largely an inoffensive seatwarmer for a future, historically signifigant president. Santorum I associate strongly with racism and homophobia, and Paul with outright insanity.

Also, I really, really wish these guys would take 2 hours out of their lives to research the president's actual powers and limitations, if only so they wouldn't promise stupid shit they can't legally deliver on. Seriously, I'd put as much effort into any job application, much less something requiring a multi-million dollar yearlong competition to get hired.
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Re: Iowa Caucus

Postby Lord Zentei » 2012-01-04 07:10pm

Romney was governor of my state, and he was a fairly crappy governor. If he made president, I see him as being largely an inoffensive seatwarmer for a future, historically signifigant president. Santorum I associate strongly with racism and homophobia, and Paul with outright insanity.

Would Romney be crappier than Obama, in your opinion?
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