Has McCain actually already LOST?(Yes he has)

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby CmdrWilkens » 2008-11-02 01:45am

Well I'm not Red but I will offer this. McCain's entire campaign right now hinges on Pennsylvania. If he wins then he has a chance, if he losses then its all over because he hasn't played defense anywhere else. Naturally the McCain campaign is going to be tryig to make any statement they can to ratchet up media interest in perceived Obama weaknesses. He HAS to start making a dent in the national lead for there to be any chance of state level tightening and right now the race is showing as basically flat. The polls for the last 5-6 days have essentially been one very large exercise in statistical noise.

Lets take the PA numbers from the last week for instance:

Republican leaning:
Strategic Vision: Obama +4
Rasmussen: Obama +4 (also an Obama +7)
Mason-Dixon: Obama +4

Democratic leaning:
CNN: Obama +12
Marist: Obama +14
Quinnipiac: Obama +12

No real leanin:
SurveyUSA: Obama +12
Insider Advantage: Obama +8
Temple: Obama +9
Muhlenberg Daily Tracker: Obama +10.2
AP: Obama +12

Oddballs:
ARG: Obama +6
Keystone: Obama +13


So there you have it, just about every poll (except the notoriously unreliable ARG and the 3 pollsters with traditionally Republican house leans) shows this as a high single digit or double digit race. The improtant thing there is that the lead Obama is hsowing is more than twice each poll's margin of error and in every case except for two (SV and M-D) Obama is over 50%. Now PA could tighten a little bit and it may very well have. The Pollster.com Composite shows Obama with 51.6% to McCain's 43.7%. I'm not saying the McCain camp is outright lying but they are probably cherry picking data left and right to make any case they can for media attention and a last minute shift in the narrative.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby RedImperator » 2008-11-02 10:12am

Illuminatus Primus wrote:So what is the deal with McCain releasing memos that Obama is struggling for 270 EVs and that they're actually close in PA? Are they just lying and hoping PR and give the hope and delusion will keep the GOP vote out and give them every prayer they need?
It's bullshit. Understandable bullshit--what else are they going to do, admit they're fucked?--but still bullshit.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Tribun » 2008-11-02 10:27am

I observed that the so-called tightening in the polls isn't from Obama losing support. It's from the lost GOP sheep flocking back to big daddy Jonny (You can see this in PA, where Obama's support is stable, while McCains has jumped 3-4 points up over the week). Of course, if this is enough for him to still win, that's a totally different thing.

That said, today proved to me that Mason-Dixon state polls are shit, their numbers, especially the high quota of undecideds, make no sense two day away from election day.

That said:How high do you think is the chance that something could still go wrong?

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Kane Starkiller » 2008-11-02 02:18pm

I wonder what is the percentage of people who simply refuse to answer the question in the polls and who are they most likely to vote. I have a sneaking suspicion that McCain will ultimately win the elections when all the closet racists and closet Republicans (don't want to say they'll vote for McCain to escape any debate about their choice but simply go with their gut feeling) cast their vote for him.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby erik_t » 2008-11-02 03:58pm

And of course, you have nothing but your own "gut feeling" to back up such nonsense.

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby DaveJB » 2008-11-02 04:09pm

You could just as easily argue that Obama voters don't dare reveal their voting intentions for fear of being branded (borrowing from To Kill a Mockingbird) "Nigger Lovers," and so Obama will probably win the states that McCain is polling strongly in.

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby haard » 2008-11-02 04:10pm

Kane Starkiller wrote:/.../closet Republicans (don't want to say they'll vote for McCain to escape any debate about their choice but simply go with their gut feeling)/.../


Because Republicans are oppressed in the US now? And WHY would they care in an anonymous poll?
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Pulp Hero » 2008-11-02 04:49pm

I'm going to call this right now: After Obama wins, the GOP will bitch about voter fraud and demand recounts/"Oversight" on votes. They will bring up ACORN or two or three fraudulant individuals as proof of biased system against them.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby SirNitram » 2008-11-02 05:02pm

Pulp Hero wrote:I'm going to call this right now: After Obama wins, the GOP will bitch about voter fraud and demand recounts/"Oversight" on votes. They will bring up ACORN or two or three fraudulant individuals as proof of biased system against them.


Of course. That's the point of all this. Even the birth-certificate thing(Which recently acheived such a fevered pitch the Hawai'i State Health Department stepped in and said 'YES. GO AWAY. YOU ARE NOT A FAMILY MEMBER, YOU CAN'T HAVE IT!' Link). The entire point down to the lawsuit in Ohio to throw him off for 'lack of a proven birth certificate'(Link) served one purpose: To de-legitimize any Obama victory. Doesn't matter if he walks away with 400+ EV's. Doesn't matter if he takes 75% of the popular. The Right Wing will have their ready-made greivances to claim he's not really a real president. And then the real fun begins as the search for anything to impeach him on starts...
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Kane Starkiller » 2008-11-02 05:18pm

erik_t wrote:And of course, you have nothing but your own "gut feeling" to back up such nonsense.

Nothing substantive but a similar thing happened in the last parliamentary elections in my country. Right wing party was in power and everyone was talking about the need for change and there was almost a certainty that Social-Democrat Party will win.
I talked to many people before the elections and generally left wingers were all open or, more accurately, outright loud in their declaration of who they are going to vote for while the right wingers were far more reluctant to go into discussions about elections and their choice.
When the election result started coming in there was certainly something of a shock with some members of the Socialist-Democrats publicly questioning how their leadership manged to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Adrian Laguna » 2008-11-02 05:23pm

SirNitram wrote:And then the real fun begins as the search for anything to impeach him on starts...

Don't they need a Republican House for that to stand any chance of it happening?

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby RedImperator » 2008-11-02 05:27pm

SirNitram wrote:
Pulp Hero wrote:I'm going to call this right now: After Obama wins, the GOP will bitch about voter fraud and demand recounts/"Oversight" on votes. They will bring up ACORN or two or three fraudulant individuals as proof of biased system against them.


Of course. That's the point of all this. Even the birth-certificate thing(Which recently acheived such a fevered pitch the Hawai'i State Health Department stepped in and said 'YES. GO AWAY. YOU ARE NOT A FAMILY MEMBER, YOU CAN'T HAVE IT!' Link). The entire point down to the lawsuit in Ohio to throw him off for 'lack of a proven birth certificate'(Link) served one purpose: To de-legitimize any Obama victory. Doesn't matter if he walks away with 400+ EV's. Doesn't matter if he takes 75% of the popular. The Right Wing will have their ready-made greivances to claim he's not really a real president. And then the real fun begins as the search for anything to impeach him on starts...
Which is why a big Obama win is important. Because if Obama wins in a landslide and brings a filibuster-proof majority in on his coattails, the Republican party is more than welcome to hunker down in its pig pen and blame whoever they like for their loss--they'll just lose again in 2010 and 2012. The only way they'll gain any traction with that nonsense is if it's a close enough election that fraud is a plausible excuse.

As for impeachment, they won't be impeaching shit in Obama's first term, because there's no fucking way they'll be able to gain seventy seats in the House in 2010. They can fling all the poop they want, but in the House of Representatives, the Speaker can squash the minority like bugs. Even if by some miracle they got a majority in the Senate, they'll never get control of the House. Obama would have to suck the brains of a live baby through a silly straw, on national television, to get impeached in his first term.

Kane Starkiller wrote:I wonder what is the percentage of people who simply refuse to answer the question in the polls and who are they most likely to vote. I have a sneaking suspicion that McCain will ultimately win the elections when all the closet racists and closet Republicans (don't want to say they'll vote for McCain to escape any debate about their choice but simply go with their gut feeling) cast their vote for him.
Okay, first, pollsters don't "debate" people's choices. All they ask is who you're going to support.

Second, anyone who refuses to answer is marked undecided. And as I detailed in a previous post, even if all undecideds in every state break for McCain, he still wins with 291 electoral votes (with Ohio exactly tied). For your scenario to work, polled Obama voters would have to be outright lying, and we've already had endless discussions about the Bradley effect.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Tribun » 2008-11-02 05:41pm

Adrian Laguna wrote:
SirNitram wrote:And then the real fun begins as the search for anything to impeach him on starts...

Don't they need a Republican House for that to stand any chance of it happening?


Do you honestly think that this little detail will stop them from trying anyway? Even if the don't make any progress, they can poison the well.

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby RedImperator » 2008-11-02 05:48pm

Tribun wrote:
Adrian Laguna wrote:
SirNitram wrote:And then the real fun begins as the search for anything to impeach him on starts...

Don't they need a Republican House for that to stand any chance of it happening?


Do you honestly think that this little detail will stop them from trying anyway? Even if the don't make any progress, they can poison the well.
:roll: I really wish people who don't know anything about how US politics works would refrain from commenting on US politics. How are they going to "poison the well" when they're down 70 seats and Pelosi can gavel them down any time she wants? Yeah, they'll be flinging poo on Republican talk radio, but who gives a shit? If Republican talk radio was as powerful as people seem to think it is, Obama wouldn't be up eight points.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Drooling Iguana » 2008-11-02 06:07pm

Tribun wrote:Do you honestly think that this little detail will stop them from trying anyway? Even if the don't make any progress, they can poison the well.

They've already cried wolf so many times during this campaign that any shit they fling in Obama's direction over the next couple of years is only going to make the Republicans look worse.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Tribun » 2008-11-02 06:11pm

I really wish people who don't know anything about how US politics works would refrain from commenting on US politics. How are they going to "poison the well" when they're down 70 seats and Pelosi can gavel them down any time she wants? Yeah, they'll be flinging poo on Republican talk radio, but who gives a shit? If Republican talk radio was as powerful as people seem to think it is, Obama wouldn't be up eight points.


I meant with it, that they will do everything to trash Obama's reputation, regardless how ridiculous the accusion is. Of course I know that they have no REAL leverage against him.

But that aside, this just in:
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby SirNitram » 2008-11-02 06:22pm

RedImperator wrote:Which is why a big Obama win is important. Because if Obama wins in a landslide and brings a filibuster-proof majority in on his coattails, the Republican party is more than welcome to hunker down in its pig pen and blame whoever they like for their loss--they'll just lose again in 2010 and 2012. The only way they'll gain any traction with that nonsense is if it's a close enough election that fraud is a plausible excuse.


Pretty much. That said, I'm still awfully skeptical of such big wins. I'd like 'em, but I'm skeptical until January 21st or whenever it is.

As for impeachment, they won't be impeaching shit in Obama's first term, because there's no fucking way they'll be able to gain seventy seats in the House in 2010. They can fling all the poop they want, but in the House of Representatives, the Speaker can squash the minority like bugs. Even if by some miracle they got a majority in the Senate, they'll never get control of the House. Obama would have to suck the brains of a live baby through a silly straw, on national television, to get impeached in his first term.


I have no doubt, but they'll be gathering the shit to fling from November 5th on. And they'll use it to try and seize back the House. I honestly hope they get kneecapped, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't still believe the Dems can snatch defeat and powerlessness from the jaws of victorious dominance.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Stormbringer » 2008-11-02 08:54pm

Tribun wrote:
I really wish people who don't know anything about how US politics works would refrain from commenting on US politics. How are they going to "poison the well" when they're down 70 seats and Pelosi can gavel them down any time she wants? Yeah, they'll be flinging poo on Republican talk radio, but who gives a shit? If Republican talk radio was as powerful as people seem to think it is, Obama wouldn't be up eight points.


I meant with it, that they will do everything to trash Obama's reputation, regardless how ridiculous the accusion is. Of course I know that they have no REAL leverage against him.


If you know, why do you keep getting worked up like an idiot? Why do you react to this like you do if you really know? For that matter, do you know how stupid your statement now is?

You're talking about negative attacks on him like they haven't been going on daily for a year or more. Obama has been attacked by the other Democratic contenders and the GOP, with low blows from both, and Obama is leading in the polls. He's already proven he's capable of dealing with these attacks and that's not going to change on inauguration. As long as he does a good job, then he's pretty effectively protected himself. Despite all the headaches and grey hair the GOP gave him, Clinton did serve two terms and had a generally favorable approval rating in spite of his behavior.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby The Yosemite Bear » 2008-11-02 09:21pm

unless fox develops force/benegesserit powers, I don't see it at this point.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby CmdrWilkens » 2008-11-03 12:05am

Kane Starkiller wrote:I wonder what is the percentage of people who simply refuse to answer the question in the polls and who are they most likely to vote. I have a sneaking suspicion that McCain will ultimately win the elections when all the closet racists and closet Republicans (don't want to say they'll vote for McCain to escape any debate about their choice but simply go with their gut feeling) cast their vote for him.


You know we've discussed the deaht of the "Bradley" effect (or more crudely the closet racist effect) quite a bit here and you've never offerd any thoughts when both Red and I have spent quite a bit of time talking about how its dead. We've pointed out that Obama has consistently OVER performed compared with his polling (sure he underperformed in NH but that was actually the outlier, he did better than the polling in more states than he did worse during the primary).

Moreover party identification numebrs strongly indicate against a change even IF the Repubican base comes home. In fact that is just what we are seeing right now. Obama remains at 50-54% depending upon who you talk to and McCain's numbers have improved but they've improved by solidifying the vote within his own party. The problem is that Democrats nationwide (and in several battlegroudn states) outnumber Republicans in the roughly 40-30 range (40D, 30 R, 30 I). Mccain is picking up soft Republican support but 1) They may not show up on election day with the enthusiasm gap and b) even if they do they are currently outnumbered.

So long story short the closet rascist effect is dead and the Republicans coming home will still leave us with a 5 point Obama win unless McCain can eat into the Independents.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Knife » 2008-11-03 01:50am

Just want to add anecdotally; here in Utah it is pretty well expected to go McCain and truly I'd be floored if it doesn't, my vote aside, a couple local guys have pointed out the absolute ferocious tendency of Obama supporters to fight like hell and display signs. You hardly see McCain/Palin signs, probably due to hard feelings over Romney, but it's pretty common to see Obama signs. Utah is a pretty white state, probably one of the whitest, and Obama signs are all over the fucking place.

I'm not a sign person, but I'll be casting my vote for the guy come Tuesday.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Duckie » 2008-11-03 03:07am

Knife wrote:Just want to add anecdotally; here in Utah it is pretty well expected to go McCain and truly I'd be floored if it doesn't, my vote aside, a couple local guys have pointed out the absolute ferocious tendency of Obama supporters to fight like hell and display signs. You hardly see McCain/Palin signs, probably due to hard feelings over Romney, but it's pretty common to see Obama signs. Utah is a pretty white state, probably one of the whitest, and Obama signs are all over the fucking place.

I'm not a sign person, but I'll be casting my vote for the guy come Tuesday.


50-state strategy. You can thank this win to Obama- he'd be fighting for ground all this election instead of fighting for a higher victory if it weren't for Dean's foresight in a grassroots, ground up electoral strategy.

Utah might not see any democrats locally, because it's the most Republican area in the nation due to Mormons, but it's working everywhere else- Democrats fighting for the Wyoming Senate! Wyoming!

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Duckie » 2008-11-03 03:07am

Ghetto Edit (I hate using these)- Wyoming At Large House, that is. Senate is out of Democratic Grasp for now, but 2010 it could be competitive.

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Maraxus » 2008-11-03 04:47am

Doubtful. Neither seat in Wyoming is up for election until 2012, and there are far more promising seats than Wyoming, which is probably going to stay red for a while. Sam Brownback's retiring in 2010, and Kathleen Sebelius could probably take his seat if she wanted it. Same thing with McCain, who is probably going to retire in 2010 anyway. I even saw a couple of polls on DailyKos saying that if the election were held today, Janet Napolitano would take his seat from him. Then there are the almost-losers from 2004, specifically Jim Bunning. Being one of the least popular sitting senators has got to do something to his ability to win an election.

As exciting as 2008 is for the democrat senate races (especially with Al Franken potentially winning a seat), 2010 looks even better. Almost all of the Incumbent democrats are in relatively safe seats, and most won re-election in 2004 (a high water mark year for republican victories) with better than 10% more votes than their opponents. Meanwhile, some republicans barely squeaked into open seats (i'm looking at you Mel Martinez) while other incumbants could barely hold their own against democratic challengers (Murkowski and Bunning). Even states that are relatively safe for republicans have been trending Democratic in recent years, and I bet Judd Gregg's seat in New Hampshire would be somewhat precarious, even for a popular sitting senator.

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby ArcturusMengsk » 2008-11-03 10:12am

Here's an interesting theory I just picked up on. Admittedly, it was first posted over at DU, but at least some of them seem to know what they're talking about:

All the hoopla and silliness over the last week is simply sideshow for the uninformed. Anybody with a brain knows that Obama has run away with the thing. So, why all the sound and fury? The GOP thinks they can limit losses in the House and Senate by getting their base out in key areas. In Pennsylvania, specifically, they think perhaps Murtha is now vulnerable, and certainly Paul Kanjorski. That's why all the Pennsylvania business. It has nothing to do with McCain winning the state, which is an absurdity at this point. It has everything to do with getting a fired up base out to try to save or pick up GOP seats in the House. The same is true everywhere. They are simply too close to the edge of stunning, Party-crippling minority status to demoralize their base now.

Obama has led this race by convincing numbers since fucking JULY. The only blip on the screen was a rather extended convention bump for the GOP, based largely on Palin. Once it became clear that Palin was as retrograde as the other GOPers, the race assumed its familiar contours once again. Obama is over 50% in nearly all polls, and is contesting unheard of states for a Democrat.

Some may be confused by McCain's rhetoric, which is pure red meat for the base. Nobody in modern history has won an election this way. Even Bush had to pretend to push toward the middle with some conviction. So this would seem like a great mystery...if you assume that Mccain is arguing for the presdiency. But he is not. They are attempting to save downticket, and have been the entire time. McCain can't win Pennsylvania, but the dumbfuck mayor of Hazelton CAN win Paul Kanjorsky's seat. That's what this is all about.

ON COMPLACENCY: The DU Worry Brigade will often bring up the problem of complacency in order to justify their constant wrong-headed posts. there is no complacency this year. The enthusiasm numbers are through the fucking roof for this election, and all on our side. Indeed, that is the VERY problem that the GOP is seeking to counter through their fake Presidential campaign. It's a fake campaign. It's a campaign for House districts masquerading as a Presidential campaign. There's no there there. So buck up. get out the vote, sure, but buck the fuck up.


I can get into this line of thinking. McCain has been very specifically targeting certain districts in Pennsylvania that have vulnerable incumbent Democrats in a hope to unseat them, much to the bane of my (non-voting, this year) Republican friends. I seem to recall that Bob Dole did a lot of this sort of 'hopeless' campaigning in 'the closing days of the '96 election, too. This look accurate to the rest of you?
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