Has McCain actually already LOST?(Yes he has)

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby ArcturusMengsk » 2008-10-31 11:05am

I've got $25.00 that says a mysterious "bin Laden" tape shows up at a major news network sometime in the next four days. Anybody want to take me up on it?
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Mr Bean » 2008-10-31 11:14am

ArcturusMengsk wrote:I've got $25.00 that says a mysterious "bin Laden" tape shows up at a major news network sometime in the next four days. Anybody want to take me up on it?

I match your bet. It's little talked about but they are aggressively hunting Bin Laden again(*Edit as Bush tries to salvage a legacy) forcing him to move around or go totally to ground, it might be hard for them to smuggle a tape out now.

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Tribun » 2008-10-31 11:23am

I think this picture sums it up:
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby The Yosemite Bear » 2008-10-31 02:16pm

I love how the Republicans even have an english car. Bush drove them into the pit, and he's on the right side of the car.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby ArcturusMengsk » 2008-10-31 02:52pm

Completely unrelated to the topic at hand, but I thought the thread could use a dose of levity...

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby The Vortex Empire » 2008-10-31 02:58pm

My school just had a mock election, with an electoral college system. Obama won 520-18, with a 71% popular vote. If only it was like that in the real world.

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby CmdrWilkens » 2008-10-31 03:16pm

So as a 5 days out preview the national trackers and polls are holding with consistent Obama support at 50% + (which means he is a virtual lock for the popular vote victory), the current electoral college Math put Obama over the top with Virginia where he enjoys 6-7 points of a lead and is often as not over 50% so it would take a massive late break to McCain to change that scenario. McCain has abandoned the Mountian West except for his home state which is now looking tenuous at best, he has also abandoned his GOTV efforts which could lead to a 2 or 3 % net loss in his numbers as pollsters may be overpredicting (R) turnout in that case.

On top of all that early voting in several states is poised to already exceed all expectations in several states. Quoting 538.com:
In Colorado, the state had already processed approximately 1.3 million ballots as of Thursday, around 60 percent of the total 2004 turnout. In Bernalillo County (Albuquerque), New Mexico (statewide figures are not available), 145,000 ballots had been cast as of Wednesday, equaling 55 percent of 2004's total.


So with another 4 days of early voting Obama is already banking votes to the point that McCan wouldn't just have to win late deciders but he'd need to win them by ridiculous margins.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Qwerty 42 » 2008-10-31 08:47pm

RCP lists the following as "toss-ups:"

Florida (Obama +3.5)
North Carolina (Obama +2.6)
Missouri (McCain +0.4)
Indiana (McCain +1.7)
Georgia (McCain +4.0)
Montana (McCain +3.8)
Arizona (McCain +4.4)
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Wicked Pilot » 2008-10-31 09:06pm

And today I gave Obama my vote. Not a 'he's not Bush' vote like in 2000 and 2004, but a 'I want this man as my president and my commander in chief' vote. Being in a red state it can be debated how much it will matter to the electoral college, but it does matters to me.


Being an enthusiastic supporter of McCain in 2000 I'm somewhat saddened that it had to be this way. I was kinda hoping he'd not get the nomination to begin with, I didn't want to see him go down like this.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby The Yosemite Bear » 2008-10-31 09:51pm

hey I filled out my ballot a long time ago, I live in a really currupt and Red county, that haas been fucking up their attempts to disenfranchise myslef and other voters over the last decade. I've been voting absentee since they brought in electronic voting machines.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Qwerty 42 » 2008-11-01 12:24am

My sample ballot just came in today. Looking it over. We don't get any fun public questions.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Tribun » 2008-11-01 08:26am

Watching how extremely agressive McLooser is waltzing through Pennsylvania and how the polls are indeed tightening in that state (visible in every graph I could find), I honestly ask: is is really possible that he can win over the state with three days left? (for example, the Mühlberg poll is now only at O+8)

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby irishmick79 » 2008-11-01 09:20am

Tribun wrote:Watching how extremely agressive McLooser is waltzing through Pennsylvania and how the polls are indeed tightening in that state (visible in every graph I could find), I honestly ask: is is really possible that he can win over the state with three days left? (for example, the Mühlberg poll is now only at O+8)


It's a long shot at best for McCain. +8 is a lot of ground to make up in 3 days. Polls don't move that quickly without some sort of news event to cause a shift in momentum. Even if there is a shift in momentum, McCain would have to be gaining 2-3 points per day before he could really claim to be in a good position. That kind of momentum just doesn't happen without some sort of major event intervening. Obama would have to get himself caught with a hooker or convicted of a felony or something of that magnitude.

Let's assume that Obama wins Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. In this scenario, a McCain victory in PA would only give him the white house if he plays perfect defense in Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. If McCain loses any one of those, Obama would still win regardless of the outcome in PA. If Obama loses Nevada and PA but wins CO and NM, he would still win the white house if he flips FL or OH.

Just looking at the scenarios, McCain has only one option at this point - win Pennsylvania. If he loses Pennsylvania, he's done. He can sweep all of the battleground Bush states - OH, IN, MO, NV, VA, NC, and FL - along with PA and he would still lose. Obama, on the other hand, has plenty of routes he can take to the white house. He can sustain a loss in Pennsylvania if he can win in several other states where he has been very competitve.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Duckie » 2008-11-01 09:46am

Indeed, the real thing that's happened with the tightening polls this last week is not hurting Obama's presidential chances- it's hurting his chance of a landslide victory.

538's chance of Obama winning the Popular Vote 1 week ago- 97%
538's chance of Obama winning the Popular Vote today- 96%

538's chance of a McCain victory 1 week ago- 3 to 5%
538's chance of a McCain victory today- 2 to 3%.

but:

538's chance of Obama gaining 375 or more electoral votes (probably Kerry + NM + CO + NH + VA + NV + OH + IN + MO + NC; in order of decreasing chances in my opinion) last week- 48.25% (with a 48.50% chance of a non-landslide victory, and a .24999% chance of a McCain victory, and an 0.0001% chance of a McCain Landslide)

538's chance of Obama gaining 375 or more EV today- 38.45%, with a 58.75% chance of a non-landslide victory, a 2.8% chance of a McCain victory, and a 0% chance of a McCain landslide.

Partly this might be because Obama is losing his grip on Montana and North Dakota, which were before tossups that now lean McCain (although, if Obama won Montana or North Dakota he'd almost assuredly be at nearly 360, if not 375 EV)

Other News: Arizona is now, as of 10/31, a tossup in RCP. A tossup at +4.4 McCain which he will win, but still embarassing. 538 is dubious, giving Obama a 4% chance of gaining it, and estimates a McCain +6.2 victory (+1.1 from his snapshot today), with an MOE of 3.3. (In contrast, there is an 9% chance of winning Georgia, with a +4.5+3.5 rating for the election.)

Other Republican Victories: Democratic 58+Sanders+Lieberman Senate Chances are down from 33% to 25%. 538 still predicts there should be 57+Sanders+Lieberman with a 55% probability, if not 56+Sanders+Lieberman with a 69%. When you count Specter, Snowe, and Collins that's cloture even without Lieberman on anything that isn't horribly crippled from the outset on voting.

In short, I think one image shows what happened to McCain's presidential campaign, both on a presidential level and in a single state.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Duckie » 2008-11-01 09:47am

Ghetto Edit- in the 1 week ago, that should have been a 3.24999% chance of McCain victory. He's not that defeated.

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby RedImperator » 2008-11-01 10:44am

Tribun wrote:Watching how extremely agressive McLooser is waltzing through Pennsylvania and how the polls are indeed tightening in that state (visible in every graph I could find), I honestly ask: is is really possible that he can win over the state with three days left? (for example, the Mühlberg poll is now only at O+8)
Unless Obama gets caught with his dick stuck in a kitten, there's no fucking way. Turnout in Philadelphia is going to be astronomical and McCain is getting crushed in the Philly suburbs. Even if McCain had a commanding lead in the rest of the state (and he doesn't), historically, in all statewide elections in Pennsylvania, high Philadelphia turnout plus a Democratic lead in the suburbs equals a Democratic win.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Ender » 2008-11-01 11:58am

RedImperator wrote:
Tribun wrote:Watching how extremely agressive McLooser is waltzing through Pennsylvania and how the polls are indeed tightening in that state (visible in every graph I could find), I honestly ask: is is really possible that he can win over the state with three days left? (for example, the Mühlberg poll is now only at O+8)
Unless Obama gets caught with his dick stuck in a kitten, there's no fucking way. Turnout in Philadelphia is going to be astronomical and McCain is getting crushed in the Philly suburbs. Even if McCain had a commanding lead in the rest of the state (and he doesn't), historically, in all statewide elections in Pennsylvania, high Philadelphia turnout plus a Democratic lead in the suburbs equals a Democratic win.

Turnout everywhere is going to astronomical. I'm not sure what exactly caused it, but the past few election cycles have seen a surge in voter turnout, which makes me happy

Also, it appears that McCain has won the crucial "comic strip artist" vote, receiving an endorsement from Bill Keane of Family Circus

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Ender » 2008-11-01 06:27pm

And McCain just got a MAJOR endorsement: link

Obama responds

Sen. Barack Obama hit key swing states Saturday, taking a jab at his GOP counterpart's endorsement by the nation's vice president.

At an event in Laramie, Wyoming, on Saturday, Vice President Dick Cheney said he will cast his ballot for the McCain-Palin ticket.

"This year, of course, I'm not on the ballot, so I am here ... not to vote for me, but I want to join daughter Liz, who is with me today, join us in casting ... our ballots for John McCain and Sarah Palin."

Obama started his day with a morning rally in Henderson, Nevada, and moved on to Pueblo, Colorado, and Springfield, Missouri.

At a rally in Pueblo, Obama lashed out at the Cheney endorsement.

"I'd like to congratulate Sen. McCain on this endorsement, because he really earned it. That endorsement didn't come easy," he said. "George Bush may be in an undisclosed location now, but Dick Cheney's out there on the campaign trail because he'd be delighted to pass the baton to John McCain."

"He knows that with John McCain, you get a twofer: George Bush's economic policy and Dick Cheney's foreign policy, Obama continued. "And that is a risk we cannot afford to take."

In a statement, McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds responded, "Barack Obama and Dick Cheney aren't just cousins; they've shared support for the Bush energy policy and the out-of-control spending that John McCain has fought to oppose," he said.

Earlier at a rally in Henderson, Nevada, Obama continued to defend his tax plan for the middle class -- and defended against "socialist" claims.

"The choice in this election isn't between tax cuts and no tax cuts. It's about whether you believe we should only reward wealth or we should also reward the work and the workers who give it," he said. "John McCain calls this socialistic. I call it opportunity."

Across the country, former President Clinton hit the campaign trail for Obama in Beckley, West Virginia.

Clinton defended Obama's economic policies and blasted the GOP for believing in a "top-down economy."We can't afford the wrong philosophy, and they're out there whacking on Obama, saying he's for redistribution," Clinton said. "Gimme a break, folks."

"We just had the biggest redistribution of income upwards in the last eight years since the 1920s, and we know how the 1920s ended," he added.

Sen. Joe Biden said he hoped McCain would finish the campaign with a positive tone. The Delaware senator said he doesn't remember a presidential campaign ending so viciously.

"In my view, over the last few weeks, John McCain's campaign has gone way over the top," Biden said Saturday at an outdoor rally on Evansville, Indiana's Main Street. "They are trying to take the low road to the highest office in the land. It's not only George Bush's economic policies that John McCain has bought hook, line and sinker. He's also bought Karl Rove's brand of political tactics. Watch more of Biden's take on the race »

"It is disappointing, I never thought I'd see this from a McCain campaign," Biden continued. "They're calling Barack Obama every name in the book. They are going out in a way that I don't recall it being more personally vicious."

Biden also holds events in Marion, Ohio; and Bowling Green, Ohio. Watch analysts weigh the state of the race

Biden's Republican counterpart, Gov. Sarah Palin, kicked off a bus tour of Central Florida on Saturday by focusing on the financial concerns of the nearly 3 million Floridians over the age of 65.

Palin, speaking at a rally in New Port Richey, Florida, promised that she and McCain will "keep our defining commitments to our senior citizens."

But she wasted little time on the Republican agenda and turned her sights, as usual, on Obama, who has accused McCain of wanting to cut Medicare funding and place Social Security benefits in the stock market. Watch more of Palin's comments »

"Obama goes around promising a new kind of politics, then he comes here to Florida. ... He tries to exploit the fears and worries about Social Security and Medicare to our retirees, and that's the oldest and cheapest kind of politics there is," she said.

The Alaska governor had rallies scheduled in five cities in three key states Saturday: Florida, North Carolina and Virginia

At an event Saturday in Springfield, Virginia, McCain also hit Obama hard on issues facing seniors.

"Every four years, the Democrats roll out these ads try to scare seniors over Social Security and Medicare. ... I was there when we saved Social Security under President Reagan, and I'm going to protect Social Security. I'm going to protect Medicare, and I'm not going to let this Congress tax away your retirement," McCain said. Watch more of McCain's Virginia rally »

McCain also told voters in Springfield, in northern Virginia, that the area is key to a Republican victory.

"I want to remind you again: Fairfax County is key to this election," McCain said. "You know that. You know how important it is for us to win here; you know how important it is that we put this country in the right direction. I need your help for the next three days."

A month ago, McCain's brother Joe called northern Virginia "communist country." And just two weeks ago, McCain adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer said the area wasn't even a "real" part of the state.

"I certainly agree that northern Virginia has gone more Democratic. And as a proud resident of Oakton, Virginia, I can tell you that the Democrats have just come in from the District of Columbia and moved into northern Virginia. And that's really what you see there. But the rest of the state, 'real' Virginia, if you will, I think will be very responsive to Sen. McCain's message."

Asked whether she wanted to clarify her comments, Pfotenhauer stood by them.

After Virginia, McCain traveled to Perkasie, Pennsylvania, for a rally before heading to New York for a scheduled appearance on "Saturday Night Live."
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Eframepilot » 2008-11-01 07:23pm

Ender wrote:Also, it appears that McCain has won the crucial "comic strip artist" vote, receiving an endorsement from Bill Keane of Family Circus

I can't think of anything scarier then Sarah Palin, can you?

Yep, pretty terrifying. Also, the colors on Billy's costume are all wrong. Did he make it in a cave or something? With a pile of scraps?

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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Illuminatus Primus » 2008-11-01 08:15pm

Comedian Rush Limbaugh says that Obama campaign insiders are - in collusion with the liberal media conspiracy - covering up the legitimate 10 point Bradley Effect and Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, and Nevada are in the bag for McCain, and the real swing states are Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Iowa and that's why Obama went to stop in Iowa despite the fact it should be a lock. What a joke. They're down to "anonymous" campaign staffers who've fled evil Obama for virtuous McSame? :lol:
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Illuminatus Primus » 2008-11-01 08:18pm

RedImperator wrote:
Tribun wrote:Watching how extremely agressive McLooser is waltzing through Pennsylvania and how the polls are indeed tightening in that state (visible in every graph I could find), I honestly ask: is is really possible that he can win over the state with three days left? (for example, the Mühlberg poll is now only at O+8)
Unless Obama gets caught with his dick stuck in a kitten, there's no fucking way. Turnout in Philadelphia is going to be astronomical and McCain is getting crushed in the Philly suburbs. Even if McCain had a commanding lead in the rest of the state (and he doesn't), historically, in all statewide elections in Pennsylvania, high Philadelphia turnout plus a Democratic lead in the suburbs equals a Democratic win.


So Red, have you bought that party hat yet? What's your election projection? I'd be interested in hearing it since you live where a lot of the action is and have followed things pretty tightly.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby RedImperator » 2008-11-01 09:12pm

Illuminatus Primus wrote:
RedImperator wrote:
Tribun wrote:Watching how extremely agressive McLooser is waltzing through Pennsylvania and how the polls are indeed tightening in that state (visible in every graph I could find), I honestly ask: is is really possible that he can win over the state with three days left? (for example, the Mühlberg poll is now only at O+8)
Unless Obama gets caught with his dick stuck in a kitten, there's no fucking way. Turnout in Philadelphia is going to be astronomical and McCain is getting crushed in the Philly suburbs. Even if McCain had a commanding lead in the rest of the state (and he doesn't), historically, in all statewide elections in Pennsylvania, high Philadelphia turnout plus a Democratic lead in the suburbs equals a Democratic win.


So Red, have you bought that party hat yet? What's your election projection? I'd be interested in hearing it since you live where a lot of the action is and have followed things pretty tightly.
Playing around with the Daily Kos electoral map gets me Obama 311-McCain 200 with Florida a toss-up (my guess is Florida won't come in until well after midnight, but it won't matter because Virginia and Ohio will be called hours earlier). Obama wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and Ohio.

Even assuming a 6 point Bradley effect in every state only nets McCain two more states, though they're big ones: Florida and Ohio, which would bring Obama down to 291 EVs to 247 for McCain. Assuming all undecideds in all states break for McCain only nets him Florida and makes Ohio a tie, making the score 291-227-20. Unless the polling is disastrously broken (and note Obama has over 50% now in most national trackers, even the most conservative Gallup LV model), Obama's get-out-the-vote strategy completely breaks down, or a late McCain surge brings it close enough for Republican voter suppression to make a difference in enough states, Obama should win this election. I can no longer see a path to victory for McCain with the data I have available to me.

Conversely, I think a true landslide probably isn't going to happen for Obama. The most optimistic number I can generate is 396, but that involves winning Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana (I have no scenario that has Obama winning Arizona, which, unlike Georgia, does not have a huge reserve of black voters who will turn out in droves and vote overwhelmingly for Obama). A more likely scenario is Obama 378-McCain 160, which still has Obama winning all the states listed above except Montana and Georgia. The most likely "big" win, I think, is Obama 353-McCain 185, which is the Kerry states, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada.

So taking all the data available now, my prediction is an Obama win somewhere between 311 and 353 electoral votes, with the most likely number somewhere in the high 320s or low 330s (depending on how North Carolina and Florida break), and a popular vote win in the neighborhood of 5%.
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Illuminatus Primus » 2008-11-02 12:51am

So what is the deal with McCain releasing memos that Obama is struggling for 270 EVs and that they're actually close in PA? Are they just lying and hoping PR and give the hope and delusion will keep the GOP vote out and give them every prayer they need?
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby ArcturusMengsk » 2008-11-02 12:58am

Illuminatus Primus wrote:So what is the deal with McCain releasing memos that Obama is struggling for 270 EVs and that they're actually close in PA? Are they just lying and hoping PR and give the hope and delusion will keep the GOP vote out and give them every prayer they need?


Why do you believe that to be anything what it is, a "rally-the-troops" type beagle blast?
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Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?

Postby Illuminatus Primus » 2008-11-02 01:13am

No, not personally, I'm just asking Red what he thinks.
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