Does McCain already have the Election won?

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Postby General Zod » 2008-09-19 11:00pm

Pablo Sanchez wrote:McCain actually has a record of asserting that he would do things that would be obviously unfeasible, like threatening to kick Russia from the G8 even though it would require a unanimous vote to do so (meaning Russia would have to vote to remove itself!) and his famous solution to a millenia of sectarian conflict in Iraq: "sit the Shiites and the Sunnis down and say, ‘Stop the bullshit.'”

So saying that he would fire the SEC chairman is not at all out of character, it's just further indication that he actually doesn't know what he's talking about but is very decisive in his ignorance.


Don't forget his fun little gaffe about the non-existent Iraq/Pakistan border.
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Postby SirNitram » 2008-09-19 11:10pm

I still love his interview where he starts babbling about 'Not Talking With Our Enemies'... In response to a question of whether he'll meet with Spain's leader.

I would love to hear the excuses for voting for this ignorant fool after that.
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Postby McC » 2008-09-20 12:36am

Based on 538's current projections, Obama has 303 EVs, and has a 71.5% likelihood of winning. They stress that this is probably just the RNC bounce wearing off, coupled with the downturn McCain is experiencing as a consequence of the economic news of the past few days. In other words, the illusion of McCain's sudden swell has finally dispersed and we're back to seeing the real numbers.
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Postby SirNitram » 2008-09-20 12:39am

McC wrote:Based on 538's current projections, Obama has 303 EVs, and has a 71.5% likelihood of winning. They stress that this is probably just the RNC bounce wearing off, coupled with the downturn McCain is experiencing as a consequence of the economic news of the past few days. In other words, the illusion of McCain's sudden swell has finally dispersed and we're back to seeing the real numbers.


Pollster has the 'locked up' EVs down to around 200 apeice, but I'm simply saying one thing that means McCain has fucked it up hardcore.

West Virginia is within the 'Tossup' range.

Seriously, how much do you have to suck, McCain, do fuck that up?
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Postby The Yosemite Bear » 2008-09-20 02:08am

well no shit, they like a chest beating Rah!, Rah!

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Postby Pablo Sanchez » 2008-09-20 03:30am

General Zod wrote:Don't forget his fun little gaffe about the non-existent Iraq/Pakistan border.


I was mainly focusing on his penchant for declaring he would take some certain decisive, tough action as president, and then it becomes clear that this action is obviously unfeasible and only a person ignorant of the situation would advance it.
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Postby General Zod » 2008-09-20 03:33am

Pablo Sanchez wrote:
General Zod wrote:Don't forget his fun little gaffe about the non-existent Iraq/Pakistan border.


I was mainly focusing on his penchant for declaring he would take some certain decisive, tough action as president, and then it becomes clear that this action is obviously unfeasible and only a person ignorant of the situation would advance it.


Well, it sort of fits what you were going for at least. I'd say taking action against a non-existent border is pretty unfeasible. :lol:
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Postby Falkenhayn » 2008-09-21 12:50am

RealClearPolitics' polling center has McCain/Obama tied in North Carolina, and McCain by 6 in South Carolina. Not something I was expecting at all.
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Postby Invictus ChiKen » 2008-09-21 01:59am

Falkenhayn wrote:RealClearPolitics' polling center has McCain/Obama tied in North Carolina, and McCain by 6 in South Carolina. Not something I was expecting at all.


What can I say we have been doing a lot down here for Obama
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Postby Stormbringer » 2008-09-21 08:56pm

SirNitram wrote:Seriously, how much do you have to suck, McCain, do fuck that up?


Forgot his Klan robes?

West Virginia runs pretty heavily to social conservatism and that's always been McCain's weak spot. It's no surprise that the state is close now that they're actually voting on more policy oriented issues. I can't imagine West Virginia has been hit any less hard than much of Midwest by the recent waves of financial trouble.

I'd consider it a sadder commentary on West Virginia than on McCain that it's close.
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Postby Ender » 2008-09-21 10:06pm

McC wrote:Based on 538's current projections, Obama has 303 EVs, and has a 71.5% likelihood of winning. They stress that this is probably just the RNC bounce wearing off, coupled with the downturn McCain is experiencing as a consequence of the economic news of the past few days. In other words, the illusion of McCain's sudden swell has finally dispersed and we're back to seeing the real numbers.
Don't they attribute the swing states to Obama though, when nothing assures that?
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Postby SirNitram » 2008-09-21 10:24pm

Ender wrote:
McC wrote:Based on 538's current projections, Obama has 303 EVs, and has a 71.5% likelihood of winning. They stress that this is probably just the RNC bounce wearing off, coupled with the downturn McCain is experiencing as a consequence of the economic news of the past few days. In other words, the illusion of McCain's sudden swell has finally dispersed and we're back to seeing the real numbers.
Don't they attribute the swing states to Obama though, when nothing assures that?


A quick once-over shows that their model only attributes swing states to the current leader. West Virginia, despite cracking the 5% margin, is still red on their map and estimations.
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Postby CmdrWilkens » 2008-09-21 11:24pm

Ender wrote:
McC wrote:Based on 538's current projections, Obama has 303 EVs, and has a 71.5% likelihood of winning. They stress that this is probably just the RNC bounce wearing off, coupled with the downturn McCain is experiencing as a consequence of the economic news of the past few days. In other words, the illusion of McCain's sudden swell has finally dispersed and we're back to seeing the real numbers.
Don't they attribute the swing states to Obama though, when nothing assures that?


They run 1000 simulations based upon current polling, historical polling, demographic based regression and then take the percentage won as their final data. The 71% to win means that in (and today its actually 74.4) 7150 of the simulations Obama had a win and in the remainder McCain won.
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Postby Tribun » 2008-09-23 09:16am

Looking at the current numbers of the RCP Average at realclearpolitics.com I noticed something.

I know that the numbers propably don't say much about who will win, but seeing that McCain's best lead was by 2.4 directly after the RNC with the Barracuda-surprise, and now Obama againleads with 3.0 after essentially doing nothing big, I wonder if there is some sort of deeper meaning. McCain has to literally rip out trees to get a lead, and in no time it has evaporated while his opponents actally haven't done anything spectacular.

Is it only me, or is this really interesting?

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Postby irishmick79 » 2008-09-23 10:03am

Tribun wrote:Looking at the current numbers of the RCP Average at realclearpolitics.com I noticed something.

I know that the numbers propably don't say much about who will win, but seeing that McCain's best lead was by 2.4 directly after the RNC with the Barracuda-surprise, and now Obama againleads with 3.0 after essentially doing nothing big, I wonder if there is some sort of deeper meaning. McCain has to literally rip out trees to get a lead, and in no time it has evaporated while his opponents actally haven't done anything spectacular.

Is it only me, or is this really interesting?


The economic crisis has wreaked havoc with McCain. Obama has consistently polled as being more able to deal with the economy than McCain, and since it's an issue dominating the headlines now, it's taken center stage. McCain has been absolutely hammered on the economy over the last week and a half, and the break towards Obama is a reflection of that.
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Postby RedImperator » 2008-09-23 05:28pm

irishmick79 wrote:
Tribun wrote:Looking at the current numbers of the RCP Average at realclearpolitics.com I noticed something.

I know that the numbers propably don't say much about who will win, but seeing that McCain's best lead was by 2.4 directly after the RNC with the Barracuda-surprise, and now Obama againleads with 3.0 after essentially doing nothing big, I wonder if there is some sort of deeper meaning. McCain has to literally rip out trees to get a lead, and in no time it has evaporated while his opponents actally haven't done anything spectacular.

Is it only me, or is this really interesting?


The economic crisis has wreaked havoc with McCain. Obama has consistently polled as being more able to deal with the economy than McCain, and since it's an issue dominating the headlines now, it's taken center stage. McCain has been absolutely hammered on the economy over the last week and a half, and the break towards Obama is a reflection of that.


Palin is cratering too, which also might be helping drag McSame down. That said, this still mostly looks like the McCain bounce dissipating, which was going to happen anyway. I'm curious where the polls will be by the end of the week.
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Postby Dominus Atheos » 2008-09-25 01:09am

I was hoping to have some more free time to continue the "a vote for McCain is a vote to turn the democrats into a real party" debate, but with college starting it looks like that's not likely. Therefore since I can't debate, I concede.
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Postby Tribun » 2008-09-25 02:20pm

I noticed that some of the sources seem to be somewhat unpredictible (I didn't want to say unreliable). Especially Gallup seems to like jumping all over the place with their numbers (how else can you explain a difference of three points in one day?).

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Postby RedImperator » 2008-09-25 02:29pm

Tribun wrote:I noticed that some of the sources seem to be somewhat unpredictible (I didn't want to say unreliable). Especially Gallup seems to like jumping all over the place with their numbers (how else can you explain a difference of three points in one day?).


Statistical fluttering explains quite a bit, which is why it's important to consider more than one poll over more than one day. Polling is unfortunately not an exact science.
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Postby Tribun » 2008-09-25 02:33pm

RedImperator wrote:
Tribun wrote:I noticed that some of the sources seem to be somewhat unpredictible (I didn't want to say unreliable). Especially Gallup seems to like jumping all over the place with their numbers (how else can you explain a difference of three points in one day?).


Statistical fluttering explains quite a bit, which is why it's important to consider more than one poll over more than one day. Polling is unfortunately not an exact science.


Ah, so that's the reason why we should better use the average that is calculated with a formula?
Btw., when will we see the impact of this week? (Quite a lot happend, not much of it good for McFries)

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Postby RedImperator » 2008-09-25 03:11pm

Tribun wrote:
RedImperator wrote:
Tribun wrote:
Ah, so that's the reason why we should better use the average that is calculated with a formula?
Btw., when will we see the impact of this week? (Quite a lot happend, not much of it good for McFries)


Statistical fluttering explains quite a bit, which is why it's important to consider more than one poll over more than one day. Polling is unfortunately not an exact science.
I noticed that some of the sources seem to be somewhat unpredictible (I didn't want to say unreliable). Especially Gallup seems to like jumping all over the place with their numbers (how else can you explain a difference of three points in one day?).

I think we're already seeing some of it; in the last week, Electoral-Vote has the race going from 243-274-21 in favor of McCain to 286-252 in favor of Obama. Some of that is the last of the McCain bounce evaporating, but some of it is the fact Obama has a big lead across the board on economic issues, too. If you held a gun to my head, I'd say I expect Obama's lead to expand in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and possibly Ohio to flip to Obama (again) while Florida goes back to exactly tied (again). A lot depends on the debate, though; a bad performance for either one could shake up the map, but I'll admit I'm not expecting much from this one. I think they'll both play it safe, though you never can fully predict John McCain's behavior. He might have a mind to nail Obama with a zinger if he can (not a trivial threat for Obama; McCain absolutely tormented Mitt Romney with well-placed barbs during the primary debates).
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Postby Guardsman Bass » 2008-09-25 07:38pm

RedImperator wrote:
Tribun wrote:
RedImperator wrote:
Tribun wrote:I noticed that some of the sources seem to be somewhat unpredictible (I didn't want to say unreliable). Especially Gallup seems to like jumping all over the place with their numbers (how else can you explain a difference of three points in one day?).


Statistical fluttering explains quite a bit, which is why it's important to consider more than one poll over more than one day. Polling is unfortunately not an exact science.


Ah, so that's the reason why we should better use the average that is calculated with a formula?
Btw., when will we see the impact of this week? (Quite a lot happend, not much of it good for McFries)


I think we're already seeing some of it; in the last week, Electoral-Vote has the race going from 243-274-21 in favor of McCain to 286-252 in favor of Obama. Some of that is the last of the McCain bounce evaporating, but some of it is the fact Obama has a big lead across the board on economic issues, too. If you held a gun to my head, I'd say I expect Obama's lead to expand in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and possibly Ohio to flip to Obama (again) while Florida goes back to exactly tied (again). A lot depends on the debate, though; a bad performance for either one could shake up the map, but I'll admit I'm not expecting much from this one. I think they'll both play it safe, though you never can fully predict John McCain's behavior. He might have a mind to nail Obama with a zinger if he can (not a trivial threat for Obama; McCain absolutely tormented Mitt Romney with well-placed barbs during the primary debates).


To be fair, though, Mitt had plenty of weaknesses in the type of campaign he was running, including the fact that his flip-floppery was caught on camera. He was asking for a thorough roasting on most of those cases. Obama's weaknesses have been heavily worn down and publicized, so I can't really imagine him getting nailed by a zinger quite as bad as the ones McCain could use against Romney.
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Postby The Original Nex » 2008-09-25 07:41pm

^ Indeed that kind of jab will be more available to Obama than McCain at this point...

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Re: Does McCain already have the Election won?

Postby RedImperator » 2008-10-01 08:23am

Last week, I wrote:If you held a gun to my head, I'd say I expect Obama's lead to expand in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and possibly Ohio to flip to Obama (again) while Florida goes back to exactly tied (again).


Oh, I'm good.

For those who don't feel like following the link, Obama has, in fact, built upon his lead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as well as Michigan, New Mexico, Washington state, Oregon, and Virginia. Florida and Ohio are exactly tied, as well as North Carolina. In addition, Obama has significantly closed the gap in Missouri and is hanging tight in Indiana and Nevada. The only significant slide for Obama was in West Virginia, where the gap has opened back up to 6. I get to take a mulligan on Minnesota, because nobody's polled there since the 20th. :P
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Re: Does McCain already have the Election won?

Postby irishmick79 » 2008-10-01 08:44am

RedImperator wrote:
Last week, I wrote:If you held a gun to my head, I'd say I expect Obama's lead to expand in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and possibly Ohio to flip to Obama (again) while Florida goes back to exactly tied (again).


Oh, I'm good.

For those who don't feel like following the link, Obama has, in fact, built upon his lead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as well as Michigan, New Mexico, Washington state, Oregon, and Virginia. Florida and Ohio are exactly tied, as well as North Carolina. In addition, Obama has significantly closed the gap in Missouri and is hanging tight in Indiana and Nevada. The only significant slide for Obama was in West Virginia, where the gap has opened back up to 6. I get to take a mulligan on Minnesota, because nobody's polled there since the 20th. :P


This election appears to have taken a decisive turn towards Barack Obama. He's opened up eight point leads in most of the major national polls, drawn even in NC according to Rasmussen, and tied Ohio and Florida. The foreign policy debate I think was McCain's last and best shot to change the momentum of the race, and he couldn't get it done. Barring a new foreign policy crisis, dead hookers turning up in Obama's house, or an absolutely epic misstatement by Obama or Biden, I'd say McCain is toast. The economy will continue to dominate the news for at least the next two-three weeks, and if the economy comes first for most voters on election day, McCain will lose.

"The fundamentals of the economy are strong" is going to be remembered as the beginning of the end for the McCain campaign. Things started turning against him when he said that. And now that his excellent adventure to Washington has apparently blown up in his face, I just don't see how he can recover. If there were two or three months left in the election he would still have a pretty good chance, but I don't think he can come back with things breaking so hard against him right now. Without the intervention of some unusual or extraordinary events, there's just not enough time for him to first stop the bleeding and then get some momentum moving back in his direction.
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