Oh, I'm good.
Last week, I wrote:If you held a gun to my head, I'd say I expect Obama's lead to expand in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and possibly Ohio to flip to Obama (again) while Florida goes back to exactly tied (again).
For those who don't feel like following the link, Obama has, in fact, built upon his lead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as well as Michigan, New Mexico, Washington state, Oregon, and Virginia. Florida and Ohio are exactly tied, as well as North Carolina. In addition, Obama has significantly closed the gap in Missouri and is hanging tight in Indiana and Nevada. The only significant slide for Obama was in West Virginia, where the gap has opened back up to 6. I get to take a mulligan on Minnesota, because nobody's polled there since the 20th.
This election appears to have taken a decisive turn towards Barack Obama. He's opened up eight point leads in most of the major national polls, drawn even in NC according to Rasmussen, and tied Ohio and Florida. The foreign policy debate I think was McCain's last and best shot to change the momentum of the race, and he couldn't get it done. Barring a new foreign policy crisis, dead hookers turning up in Obama's house, or an absolutely epic
misstatement by Obama or Biden, I'd say McCain is toast. The economy will continue to dominate the news for at least the next two-three weeks, and if the economy comes first for most voters on election day, McCain will lose.
"The fundamentals of the economy are strong" is going to be remembered as the beginning of the end for the McCain campaign. Things started turning against him when he said that. And now that his excellent adventure to Washington has apparently blown up in his face, I just don't see how he can recover. If there were two or three months left in the election he would still have a pretty good chance, but I don't think he can come back with things breaking so hard against him right now. Without the intervention of some unusual or extraordinary events, there's just not enough time for him to first stop the bleeding and then get some momentum moving back in his direction.