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In Ohio early voting is 60% Obama 30% Romney with a virtual tie for likely voters who have not voted yet. So That's very good news for Obama.

I wonder if this lack of early republican voters is indicative of the sort of malaise that hit the democrats in the 2004 election. Romney isn't really that charismatic an individual, and so most of the republicans aren't really voting for Romney; they're voting against Obama. And as we saw in 2004, you can't really win an election just with "Vote for me, I'm not the other guy."

For a resident of the UK this is so bizarre it's not even funny - Obama is so far to the right he would barely be eligible to join the Conservative Party, his opponent is a complete barking moonbat with about as much grip on reality as a concussed jellyfish and the conscience of a serial killer .... and the frighteningly uninformed are about to vote one of them as head of state based on which soundbites from a biased media source resonated most with their self interest.
And that doesn't matter because it's all decided in the electoral college anyway.
If this was a proposed movie script it would get rejected for being too retarded.

That's not even the worst part - Obama is considered by many to be an ultraliberal socialist commie. We are so far to the right that a party who has several members saying horrible things about rape isn't guaranteed to lose.

Darth Nostril wrote:If this was a proposed movie script it would get rejected for being too retarded.

You know, our local screeching harpy Ann "Skeletor" Coulter recently used that word. It is not a clever word to use. Perhaps we should avoid using it. Just a suggestion.

The exaggerations about Obama that the GOP has been allowed to get away with truly are amazing. The guy who surged troops into Afghanistan, pivoted US military forces against China, kicked Gadhafi's ass, and is continuing with plans to build an uber all-stealth fighter fleet "hates the military." The guy who ordered way more drone strikes than George W. ever did, wiping out dozens of Al Qaeda leaders (US citizen be damned) on the way to killing Bin Laden himself just "apologizes" to Muslims because he's soft on terror. The guy who gave tax relief to most Americans, compromised and extended the Bush tax cuts for another two years, and simply wants to raise tax rates a little bit more toward historical US averages is a "socialist" who clearly wants to destroy the American capitalist system.

Talk to some conservatives (I work with quite a few), and Obama is the "worst president ever." This is a historic election to them, with the fate of American Way on the very brink of destruction. Things are so much worse than they were four years ago, when Bush was the president and the economy wasn't just failing to recover quickly, but quickly tanking. Current conservatism is a bunch of shameless, overly dramatic whining.

Dalton

The problem with insults is that they're insulting. At least for retarded the technical definition is literally low intelligence: An IQ under 70. That's also the original meaning of idiot, moron, and imbecile.

Then why don't you just use one of those, rather than degrading and otherizing people who have nothing to do with what you're talking about?

Dominus Atheos wrote:Dalton

The problem with insults is that they're insulting. At least for retarded the technical definition is literally low intelligence: An IQ under 70. That's also the original meaning of idiot, moron, and imbecile.

I really don't care about the "technical" definition, because that sounds like handwaving justification to me. The word has been colloquially linked, likely permanently, to a slur against the mentally impaired.

This is not a moderator decree, by the way.


In other news, Nate Silver just updated his forecast; Obama is trending back upwards, with his chances at 72% with 293 EV.

To be fair, he said a system was "retarded" he didn't call someone a retard. I think that's a signifigant distinction.

Flagg wrote:To be fair, he said a system was "retarded" he didn't call someone a retard. I think that's a signifigant distinction.

YMMV, as they say. Maybe I'm oversensitive, but I'd like to try not using that word.


538 forecast was re-run tonight to include a Rasmussen AZ poll and a PPP VA poll. Obama's numbers inched up again to 294 EV and 73% chance of winning; VA is now listed as Leaning Obama.

Is there anything left that either side can do to cause any major shifts? Or is this basically it, with only the ads and the election left?

Aasharu wrote:Is there anything left that either side can do to cause any major shifts? Or is this basically it, with only the ads and the election left?

Unless a video comes out of one of them eating an infant, I wouldn't expect it to change significantly.

The forecast and polls could still change over the next couple days since the monday "debate" is still recent and it's effects on the poles may not be fully stated. But only really attack ads or really stupid remarks are left.

I suggest we insert a word filter that changes all instances of the word retarded into "Coulter". Problem solved.

Something I am curious about is what the Republican reaction will be if Obama is reelected. Previously in the Osama Bin Laden death thread I wondered if the GOP would take a step back and reevaluate its strategies given the political capital that Obama had gain. Instead the GOP doubled down on a lot of their crazier positions. I have to wonder how the long the leadership will allow the party to continue to spiral down the rabbit hole or do they really not have control anymore?

Personally, I think a "blue dog party" would be able to do much better than the current far right bent of the GOP and were I a cynical political master I would be trying to get the Akins, Mourdocks etc. to shut the fuck up about their personal beliefs and focus on party issues instead.

While I'd like to see a more moderate GOP, I don't know if they would lean back toward the middle if they lose to Obama again. This will be a tight presidential election, and their much bigger loss in 2008 actually convinced them to become more conservative.

FOX News, Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck, and other leaders of conservative thought certainly won't change their tune. What are they going to do, admit that they were full of crap before? Please, they have an image (and a revenue stream) to keep up.

Republicans would also still control Congress, which they won in a landslide victory just two years ago. The next election is as far as these people see. So next month, don't be surprised if numerous Congressmen and Congressman wannabes come out of the woodwork to whine about the debt or the economy, regardless of which side wins it. After all, 2014 really isn't that far away.

Many of the current Republican politicans also seem like true believers, who actually buy into their party's rhetoric. I'm sure that a lot of their recent actions have been cynical political moves done to ensure that Obama will be a "one term president." But there's also a ton of racism and fear mongering out there. People see Obama as the Other, and they're convinced that he's out to destroy America.

Right now it's a trudge to Election Day. It's less about undecideds now and more about upping turnout, so expect to hear a lot more about voter suppression.

Block wrote:

Lord MJ wrote:Jay Carney was repeating the "Spontaneous Protest" line well after Susan Rice made her statements. But the question is why were they making those statements to begin with, when they had information at the time that is was not the case. They had messages from the diplomats in Benghazi during the attack.

They had several conflicting messages, which it clearly states in the article you posted.

That doesn't explain away the fact they had repeated emails and messages from the counsular staff DURING the attack. As in they knew DURING the attack, that their embassy was under attack from heavily armed militants.

Lord MJ wrote:

Block wrote:

Lord MJ wrote:Jay Carney was repeating the "Spontaneous Protest" line well after Susan Rice made her statements. But the question is why were they making those statements to begin with, when they had information at the time that is was not the case. They had messages from the diplomats in Benghazi during the attack.

They had several conflicting messages, which it clearly states in the article you posted.

That doesn't explain away the fact they had repeated emails and messages from the counsular staff DURING the attack. As in they knew DURING the attack, that their embassy was under attack from heavily armed militants.

E-mails during an attack being a totally impartial and calm analysis of the situation. My gods. This is not a rational argument.

Dark Hellion wrote:I suggest we insert a word filter that changes all instances of the word retarded into "Coulter". Problem solved.

Something I am curious about is what the Republican reaction will be if Obama is reelected. Previously in the Osama Bin Laden death thread I wondered if the GOP would take a step back and reevaluate its strategies given the political capital that Obama had gain. Instead the GOP doubled down on a lot of their crazier positions. I have to wonder how the long the leadership will allow the party to continue to spiral down the rabbit hole or do they really not have control anymore?

Personally, I think a "blue dog party" would be able to do much better than the current far right bent of the GOP and were I a cynical political master I would be trying to get the Akins, Mourdocks etc. to shut the fuck up about their personal beliefs and focus on party issues instead.

I've been wondering about this too.

If Obama wins re-election, I fully expect the obstructionism in Congress to continue unabated. But it's not without risk because the whole point of the stonewalling has been to deny Obama the White House in 2012. If they keep this up after losing the presidency, it could end up pissing more and more people off and come back to haunt them in 2014. They've been playing Yahtzee with the country's recovery and I for one am furious as all hell.

I'm also keen on what Mitten's reaction will be if he loses. He's been trying to one-up dear old dad and I don't think he'd take it well.

Dalton wrote:BEST BIRTHER VIDEO EVER

There is SO Much bogus in that video it makes my eyes bleed. I really feel sorry for whoever the baby is, imagine growing up and being told you were in something like that later on.

I'm also keen on what Mitten's reaction will be if he loses. He's been trying to one-up dear old dad and I don't think he'd take it well.

While many of us are keen on dreaming of someone on the Right having some sort of grand melt down... I don't know if in the past 100 years we have ever actually seen one. Those that loose big or loose bad tend to simply ignore the loss and the reasons for it. Typical anyone who is Right wing by default, has the mindset where a little thing like Reality does not change them...

If Mittens loose, he will (IMHO) 'declare victory' say that he has done all he needs to do, and either fade into obscurity, or live out his life as a shrill talking head on Fox news.

JME2 wrote:
I've been wondering about this too.

If Obama wins re-election, I fully expect the obstructionism in Congress to continue unabated. But it's not without risk because the whole point of the stonewalling has been to deny Obama the White House in 2012. If they keep this up after losing the presidency, it could end up pissing more and more people off and come back to haunt them in 2014. They've been playing Yahtzee with the country's recovery and I for one am furious as all hell.

It seems to me that the majority of the nation treats congress (indeed, much of politics in general) as one monolithic block. Congress' approval rating is in the tank, but a great portion of the country doesn't critically examine why Congress can't seem to do anything. The Republicans say that Obama had 2 years of unobstructed support when the Dems controlled congress, but fail to mention that the filibusterer was used to obstruct almost every piece of meaningful legislation.

I would have expected the Obama camp to make much bigger hey about Republican obstructionism during this election cycle. Either they haven't hit that point enough, or for some reason it just isn't getting picked up. Regardless, I feel like if the public isn't paying attention to the fact that the GOP has deliberately sabotaged things, like the US' credit rating just to win the next election, they never will pay attention. The general American populous has proven they think in simple terms, and if the economy is not better in 2 years, or there's a major terrorist attack, you can expect the GOP will do well in 2014.

My completely uninformed guess is that if Obama wins the GOP will continue their rightward shift. I think it’s gotten to the point where the momentum built up is just too great to stop and the drive to be ever more conservative is self sustaining. Certain people have built up cults of personality that may be too large for the moneyed interests to control. Look at all the Tea Party candidates that overturned the moderate republicans. Things will get interesting when the business wing and the culture wings come to an irreconcilable difference on something, which is bound to happen eventually. That will likely lead to a split in the party, which my guess would see the more moderate business wing potentially breaking off and joining the Blue Dog democrats and their constituency. Then we get the far right, the far left, and the business friendly party which will probably align itself with whoever seems most advantageous to court at the time, while never delivering on most promises made that don’t affect business interests unless they can absolutely help it. When this happens is anyones guess. Then again something unexpected or simply momentous enough may happen that changes the current cultural mindset.

Crossroads Inc. wrote:[snip] If Mittens loose, he will (IMHO) 'declare victory' say that he has done all he needs to do, and either fade into obscurity, or live out his life as a shrill talking head on Fox news. rich-as-fuck guy who will probably get over it because he can still blow a line of coke off a whore's nipple while he wipes his ass with a hundred dollar bill every morning.

Fixed.

Things are getting seriously annoying in Battlefield Colorado. Just got woken up in the middle of the day by campaign door-knockers again. I'm going to put a note on my door that reads: "I ALREADY MAILED MY BALLOT, FUCKERS."

Dressed Link ~D
Sadly, while Obama still holds a consistent lead in the electoral college as of now, I think we have to seriously consider the possibility of a Romney presidency.