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RedImperator, did you have to bring up Zogby? That is one of the most useless polls you can find, especially because of their idiotic party weighting.

Tribun wrote:RedImperator, did you have to bring up Zogby? That is one of the most useless polls you can find, especially because of their idiotic party weighting.

And on what, exactly, do you base this criticism? Neither Pollster, nor Electoral-Vote, nor 538, nor Election-Projection seem to share that view. Besides, it's one of the two polls cited by Drudge, so it's, you know, relevant to the post immediately before mine.

Herse something for another look, Teo Electorial maps, One from NPR, one from CNN. I find it interesting how they two interept curtrent polls to pain what they have on the maps.

I'm not sure if it's been asked, but what are the odds that people lie about voting for Obama, only to turn around and vote for McCain out of racial prejudice?

GHETTO EDIT:



The third one i wanted to post is from our friends over at Fox News. I find it amazing they for one, theres no "leaning Dem" or "Leaning Gop" on the map, that, and evidently they cound Wisc and Mich (where McCain has pulled out of) as "toss up states" gotta love our boys at FOX.

Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:I'm not sure if it's been asked, but what are the odds that people lie about voting for Obama, only to turn around and vote for McCain out of racial prejudice?

Been discussed. Basically, the Primary showed not much of a Bradley effect for Obama based on race as far as we know. So...not TOO likely. Certainly not enough to cut into his lead as it stands now.

Is it just me or is the picture Fox picked for Obama on that poll, umm, sort of smug looking? He's looking away from the viewer, he's got his face tilted up as if he's looking down on someone, and he looks sort of smug in that picture. While McCain's picture is fairly normal.

Crossroads Inc. wrote:The third one i wanted to post is from our friends over at Fox News. I find it amazing they for one, theres no "leaning Dem" or "Leaning Gop" on the map, that, and evidently they cound Wisc and Mich (where McCain has pulled out of) as "toss up states" gotta love our boys at FOX.

It's pretty amusing how systematic they are. Every tossup is a solid McCain, everything leaning to Obama by less than 10 points is a tossup, and let's just toss in some solid Obama states as tossup to even it up some more.

Just looking at it by the numbers the bias is obvious, Cnn and Npr basically have nearly the same outcomes in terms of electoral votes. Fox varies wildly from the others trying to make the race as close as possible. I am curious, aside from 538, does anyone know of any other comprehensive Electoral maps to compare outcomes?

OBAMA:
npr: 273
cnn: 264
fox: 228

MCCAIN:
npr: 174
cnn: 174
fox: 200

The media outfits project a 'horserace'. They always do. It's in their economic interest to make this not a blowout.

SirNitram wrote:The media outfits project a 'horserace'. They always do. It's in their economic interest to make this not a blowout.

Or they're being conservative because they don't want to be accused of bias in Obama's favor. Or because they're still jumpy from 2000--NPR has no economic stake in the outcome and they're already accused of being too liberal, and they still show a lower total for him than the indie sites.

I suspect it's a combination of all three. Certainly you could plausibly argue that each network has its own motives; Fox News, for instance, would call Vermont a toss-up state if they thought they could get away with it, because the whole network exists to cheerlead for the GOP.

How much good does it do FOX or even the GOP to act like its an even race? Who does it work for? I mean, I'm not saying they're above it, I am convinced of their own sided assmuggery, I just don't get what good it does them to predict it well for McCain in comparison to other networks?

Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:I'm not sure if it's been asked, but what are the odds that people lie about voting for Obama, only to turn around and vote for McCain out of racial prejudice?

I read an Op/Ed, in the Houston Chronicle iirc, that pointed out that even racists are considering voting for Obama because of the current economic climate.

They're not necessarily supporting him outright but they are stopping long enough to think about whether or not they should vote for McCain. That they're doing that in spite of their prejudice should give you some comfort even if they hold their nose and vote straight Republican anyways, because that uncertainty will (has) spilled over into the independent wings of the American voting public and they're already abandoning McCain for any number of reasons.

The Guid wrote:How much good does it do FOX or even the GOP to act like its an even race? Who does it work for? I mean, I'm not saying they're above it, I am convinced of their own sided assmuggery, I just don't get what good it does them to predict it well for McCain in comparison to other networks?

To keep Republicans from getting so discouraged they stay home, for one. If you think McSame's in the shit now, imagine if the majority of Republicans just give up and stop volunteering and donating money. Even if McCain has no chance (I'm still not convinced of that, by the way) they still have a lot of downballot races where they need every dollar and vote they can get.

If I were a Republican strategist right now, my focus would be on, if not winning the presidential election, then at least keeping it close enough that Obama can't claim a mandate, and keeping the losses in the House, Senate, and state elections as few as possible. But to do that, the rank-and-file need to believe there's actually a point to participating this year, which means saying optimistic things and making the numbers seem as good as possible.

The Guid wrote:How much good does it do FOX or even the GOP to act like its an even race? Who does it work for? I mean, I'm not saying they're above it, I am convinced of their own sided assmuggery, I just don't get what good it does them to predict it well for McCain in comparison to other networks?

People that might not otherwise bother to vote might vote McCain thinking they could swing it?

A question:

How many Reps. do you think will shout: "Look how high Wall Street went today, economy is all right again, so don't vote Obama!"? I know it sounds totally stupid, but I learned that the bottom of the barrell is always lower than you think.

Btw., I don't trust this sudden sharp jump up at Wall Street. It comes too sudden and it's hight is somewhat suspicious.

Crossroads Inc. wrote:Just looking at it by the numbers the bias is obvious, Cnn and Npr basically have nearly the same outcomes in terms of electoral votes. Fox varies wildly from the others trying to make the race as close as possible. I am curious, aside from 538, does anyone know of any other comprehensive Electoral maps to compare outcomes?

OBAMA:
npr: 273
cnn: 264
fox: 228

MCCAIN:
npr: 174
cnn: 174
fox: 200

RealClearPolitics has those kinds of maps, too, plus maps and polls from earlier Presidential races.

So today the Dow gained back, what, a third of what it lost this week? Nothing suspicious about it, it's been flailing like a tourettes kid on speed for how long now? Eventually it was bound to flail the other way.

(Mind you, I was sort of hoping it'd remain flat for about 1 more day before jumping, hadn't finished deciding some investment issues, but que sera)

Slacker wrote:So today the Dow gained back, what, a third of what it lost this week? Nothing suspicious about it, it's been flailing like a tourettes kid on speed for how long now? Eventually it was bound to flail the other way.

(Mind you, I was sort of hoping it'd remain flat for about 1 more day before jumping, hadn't finished deciding some investment issues, but que sera)

Even a dead cat will bounce if it falls far enough.

Not to mention, the real economic fallout has yet to hit the job market from the stock crash and credit crunch proper. I'm with Roubini, who seems to have been the only one (more or less) on the ball before this all unfolded. And its going to get worse - a lot worse, and for awhile - before it gets better. The probability of the economy receding to a pre-convention level issue is next to nothing.

The Great Depression didn't hit California that hard until about '31, if family stories are to be believed. Even with a more interconnected economy, I'm giving the other shoe plenty of time to drop.

RedImperator wrote:

The Guid wrote:How much good does it do FOX or even the GOP to act like its an even race? Who does it work for? I mean, I'm not saying they're above it, I am convinced of their own sided assmuggery, I just don't get what good it does them to predict it well for McCain in comparison to other networks?

To keep Republicans from getting so discouraged they stay home, for one. If you think McSame's in the shit now, imagine if the majority of Republicans just give up and stop volunteering and donating money. Even if McCain has no chance (I'm still not convinced of that, by the way) they still have a lot of downballot races where they need every dollar and vote they can get.

If I were a Republican strategist right now, my focus would be on, if not winning the presidential election, then at least keeping it close enough that Obama can't claim a mandate, and keeping the losses in the House, Senate, and state elections as few as possible. But to do that, the rank-and-file need to believe there's actually a point to participating this year, which means saying optimistic things and making the numbers seem as good as possible.

I think it's in the Democrats' interests for the media narrative to make the election to look more like a horserace than it is in reality as well. If the Democrats convince themselves that they have it in the bag, they might get complacent. Volunteers wouldn't put as much time in, less money would be raised, and some voters might even stay home on Election Day.

RCP is reporting Missouri back to Obama. Obama's lead in both the projected electoral college and projected popular have both reached their highest points yet.

Qwerty 42 wrote:RCP is reporting Missouri back to Obama. Obama's lead in both the projected electoral college and projected popular have both reached their highest points yet.

But according to McCain, he has them right where he wants them.

I don't think the election is over by a longshot, but short of a true October surprise, or OBL challenging McCain to a duel and demanding Obama to be the mediator, the Maverick is in serious trouble if he wants to be president of the US instead of the President of the fly over states.

It's interesting that there seems to be a new 'rust belt' in most of those maps where from Idaho to Utah to Arizona can make a red line straight down the map along with the Dakota's to Nebraska to Kansas, to Oki to Texas as well. If you add in Wyoming the new GOP strong hold is more the intermountain west and the 'heartland' rather than the deep south as is traditional. Really it's the 'rust loop' with the deep south being more a tangent than anything; an exit ramp to the east coast.

Fully expect an Osama video. The man's stated goal is to bleed the US dry into depression. I think he can, from his satellite TV off in the mountains of bumfuck, work out it's in his best interest to try and get McCain in so he can throw more treasure and blood into Iraq.